Finance Commons^™

Does Idiosyncratic Volatility Follow A Random-Walk? Evidence From U.S. Stocks, Zihan Cao, Ossama Elhadary

Publications and Research

In asset pricing literature, idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) measures the firm-specific risk that is not explained by broader market movements. In this study, I investigate whether the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) of individual stocks follows a random-walk. Using monthly residuals from the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993), I estimate IVOL for more than 11,000 U.S. stocks, and apply the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (Said & Dickey, 1984) to determine whether IVOL behaves like a random-walk. While most stocks display random-walk behavior, the proportion varies across industries, with some sectors showing deviations from random-walk behavior. Stocks with different levels of average return …

Eco 4000 – Statistical Analysis For Economics And Finance [Syllabus], Dmytro Dushko

Open Educational Resources

The course introduces econometric techniques that are useful for conducting empirical analyses in economics and finance. Its purpose is to enable students to master these concepts and successfully complete an independent empirical project. The course will be structured into three roughly equal parts: the first part will cover probability and sets, providing a foundation for statistical reasoning; the second part will focus on statistics, delving into quantitative methods for analyzing economic data; and the third part will introduce econometrics, emphasizing linear models that establish relationships between two or more variables of interest. We will explore linear models from both theoretical …

Menstrual Math: The Price Of Bleeding, Gabrielle Langston

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This project examines the landscape of menstrual equity in the United States through a data storytelling lens, focusing on state-level policies regarding taxation and access to menstrual products. The analysis explores which states impose sales tax on menstrual products, if state schools provide free menstrual products, and which states ensure access for incarcerated individuals using publicly available datasets from advocacy groups. Additionally, there is an investigation into potential correlations between the gender wage gap and states that tax menstrual products, shedding light on economic and policy disparities.

Through its data visualizations, this project aims to provide a clear, although not …

Banking And The Wider Economy: Essays On Capital And Cross-Border Risks, Morgan Hunt

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: This paper examines the impact of growth in the banking industry’s capital and assets on real output growth at both aggregate and industry levels using a short-run factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) model across 19 NAICS two-digit industries from 2007Q1 to 2019Q4. Results reveal that changes in capital growth significantly affect output growth in the Manufacturing and Finance industries, while changes in risk-weighted assets impact the Construction, Manufacturing, Real Estate, and Transportation industries. Conversely, output growth in the Manufacturing and Retail Trade industries influences capital growth, while Wholesale Trade output growth affects risk-weighted assets. These relationships are robust …

Beauty Comes With A Price: But How Much Is It Worth It, Fabliha Afia

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

The global skincare market, valued at 104.24 billion dollars in the year 2022, is very heterogeneous, ranging from prestige brands to more drugstore types. Even when the same key ingredients are present, the latter often sells for much higher due to branding and packaging and the aura of prestige created. This capstone project entitled "Beauty comes with a price: but how much is it worth?" investigates if such higher costs are justified due to superior quality or are driven by non-functional factors. It systematically compared the high-end versus drugstore skincare products in categories like sunscreens, serums, and exfoliants with respect …

Essays On Macroeconomics And Banking, Christopher Naubert

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters.

Chapter 1 - The Heterogeneous Effects of Interest Rate Liftoff in an Estimated New Keynesian Model In recent years, the question of how central banks should proceed with lifting interest rates from the zero lower bound has moved into focus. I study how alternative plans for interest rate liftoff affect households across the income and wealth distribution in an estimated New Keynesian model with fixed heterogeneity and aggregate shocks. I solve the model globally and develop a new methodology for estimating globally solved, non-linear models. In the estimated model, I find that all agents …

Essays On Cryptocurrency Assets, Minwoo Song

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1 - Herd Instinct in the Digital Currency Markets: In this chapter, We establish that the actions of influential opinion leaders in the digital currency markets and potential investors following their lead drive abnormal cryptocurrency returns. We develop a psychological and behavioral factor, named the herd behavior index, that detects the herd instinct of the investors in cryptocurrency markets and captures anomalies in cryptocurrency returns. Our finding shows that the herd behavior index can explain the variation in cryptocurrency returns. Moreover, there exists a time-series relationship between abnormal returns and the investors’ herd instinct, and the herd behavior index …

Three Essays Applying Dynamic Models In Economics, Finance, And Machine Learning, Lucas C. Dowiak

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation is a composition in three parts. Collectively, these essays investigate dynamic methods and their application in the fields of Economics, Finance, and Machine Learning. It pulls liberally from all three. In particular, this dissertation makes repeated use of multi-state modeling frameworks popular in Economics to bring a faceted view to the underlying data and detect its hidden heterogeneity. The challenge of modeling financial assets and estimating their dependence is another focus. For stimulus, concepts in the Machine Learning field are brought in to aid or compete with established econometric techniques.

Econometric Applications of the Hierarchical Mixture-of-Experts

In this …

Essays On Empirical Economics, Dorian Abreu

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

CHAPTER 1: HIGH FREQUENCY TRADING AND MARKET LIQUIDITY

This paper provides evidence of the impact of High Frequency Trading (HFT) on liquidity. I use data from the NASDAQ OMX that identifies the trades of 26 HFT firms on 120 randomly selected stocks listed on the NASDAQ. I find that HFT improves overall market liquidity. However, the liquidity improvements come at the expense of the non high frequency traders. Results indicate that trades in which the HFT supply liquidity to non HFTs have a significantly wider spreads. This impact is larger for smaller cap stocks. Additionally, price impacts are largest when …

Empirical Essays On Retail Investors, Institutional Investors, And Anomalies, Yuqing Yang

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of five chapters on market efficiencies through retail and international mutual fund investors.

Chapter 1 This chapter briefly introduces this dissertation.

Chapter 2 This chapter Anomalies Never Disappeared: The Case of Stubborn Retail Investors delves into the “stubborn” retail investors and finds that anomalies traded against by retail investors never disappear in the long run, defying the conventional wisdom that anomalies are disappearing in recent years as market efficiency improves. Incorporating retail trading, I develop asset pricing models that surpass existing prominent models in explaining these long-run alphas. I hypothesize that retail investors exacerbate anomalies: the more …

Essays On Real Estate, Flood Risk, And Political Sentiment, John P. Orellana

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that investigate how climate change, flood risk, and political sentiment influence outcomes in housing markets.

Chapter 1: This chapter offers a brief review and discussion of several recent and seminal papers at the intersection of flood risk, climate change, and real estate, as well as a critique on some of the literature on the effects of sea-level rise on housing outcomes.

Chapter 2: FEMA flood maps serve two functions: they signal risk to homeowners and mandate insurance take-up. How these information and risk transfer mechanisms affect homeowner relocation decisions remains unknown. Combining real estate …

Essays In Macroeconomics And Finance, Archil Dvalishvili

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: (A Quantitative Analysis of Interest on Reserves and Reserve Requirements) - I construct a medium scale DSGE model with financial frictions both on the demand (entrepreneurs) and supply (banks) sides of credit to study the costs and benefits of fixed/time-varying minimum reserve requirements and interest paid by the Fed on reserves.The results can be summarized as follows: (1) An optimal time-varying minimum reserve requirement generates substantial welfare gain when compared with a fixed minimum reserve requirement when no interest is paid on reserves. (2) Paying interest on reserves is substantially welfare inferior to a policy with no interest …

Essays On Tax Impacts On Corporate Finance, Corporate Governance And Regional Disparity, Mei Li

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that cover topics on tax impacts on corporate finance, regional disparity and corporate governance.

Chapter 1 - How Do Net Operating Loss Carryforwards Affect Tax Impact on Corporate Capital Structure? This paper examines the impact of net operating loss (NOL) carryforwards on the tax implications of corporate capital structure. Leveraging the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), the largest tax reform in four decades, this paper investigates the effect of NOL carryforwards on firms' sensitivity to tax reforms. As NOL carryforwards have become increasingly significant since 2000, but not widely researched due …

Stock Splits And Corporate Peer Effects, Albert J. Saad

Theses and Dissertations

We find that a company’s decision to execute a stock split is affected by the number of stock splits carried out by its peers. Through the use of a broad peer group construction methodology, we also reveal the presence of asymmetric effects with regard to companies of different market capitalization size. In the periods of 1983–1996 and 1997–2009 we find that firms are more likely to split their stock if more of their peers have recently done so. However, in the period of 2010–2019 we see that the opposite is true. These results provide further evidence on social learning from …

Exploring Information Leakage In Historical Stock Market Data, Edison Hua

Dissertations and Theses

Information leakage is a major concern for traders who want to execute large orders without affecting the market price. In this paper, we explore the sources and effects of information leakage in historical stock market data using various methods and metrics. We first define information leakage as a pattern caused by a trader that would otherwise not occur without the trader’s activity. Using historical data, the direct impact of a potential large trade cannot be measured, but we consider a minimal impact large trade to be one that minimizes changes to the established trading data. We then analyze how information …

Financial Institutions Continue To Adopt Crypto Despite Industry Turmoil, Andre Beganski

Capstones

Even though this calamitous year has raised doubts about crypto's future, not a single large financial institution has backed away from their forays into digital assets. And despite a period of turmoil that’s seen the market value of all cryptocurrencies crater to under $880 billion from over $3 trillion, many sizable firms continue to view crypto as an emerging sector of finance and technology that’s rife with opportunity.

While financial firms have the potential to foster a widespread perception of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class, their involvement runs counter to the intent of those who pioneered blockchain technology for …

Essays On Futures Market And Machine Learning, Jonathan J. Lopez Camara

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1 - Big Data And Machine Learning To Predict Overnight Interest Rates. This paper is a brief introduction to the two main pieces I have elaborated as part of the dissertation. Here, I explain the reasons why I have done my research about predicting the overnight interest rates for Mexico and the United States using big data and machine learning models. I explain the connection between the two research papers, I define some basic concepts such as future contracts and the overnight funding rate for Mexico. There is a summary about the data I use, and the machine learning …

Macroeconomic Adjustments Of Global Convergence: Real Exchange Rate Response Of Asia-Pacific Growth, Kumarappan Annamalai

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters.

Chapter 1 : PURCHASING POWER PARITY, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, PRICE LEVEL INDEX and HARROD-BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT: LITERATURE SURVEY

In the light of the concepts explained in the introduction section, this chapter explores the seminal papers on the Purchasing Power Parity principle, the Real Exchange rate, and the Price Level Index, showing the evolution of PPP and the methodologies adopted in exploring the characteristics of PPP and the real exchange rates. Various characteristics might be stationarity or non-stationarity of the real exchange rates (RER), variance, correlation, half-life measures, linearity versus non-linearity, etc. Various methodologies adopted were …

Essays On Spillover Effects Across U.S And China, Zhuo Xi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter1: With the rapid development and continuous advancement of economic globalization, the links between countries around the world have become increasingly tight. Among them, the United States, as the world's largest economy, its monetary policy is bound to cause significant spillover effects on other economies around the world. By constructing a Threshold SVAR model with monthly data from 1996 to 2019, this paper empirically investigates the spillover effects of US monetary policy on China's economy during different U.S policy regimes. The transmission mechanism of such effects has been tested through different channels including policy channel, trade channel, asset value channel …

The Euro And Bumps In The Road: Historical Patterns Of Nonresident Holdings In Eurozone Bonds, 1980–2018, Michael H. Scarlatos

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

A developed bond market which attracts nonresident investors both enables and reflects a host currency’s transition from domestic to international status. My analysis of historical private nonresident holdings of Eurozone portfolio debt securities spanning the euro’s 1999 creation and its subsequent 2008 crisis reveals diverging patterns.

This analysis, complemented by coefficient stability tests, discovers that the conversion of national currencies to the euro was reflected by a pickup in nonresident holdings of bonds issued by countries adopting the euro, especially those of the periphery (Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain) relative to the core (Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, and the …

Modelling And Forecasting Methods In Financial Economics, Shuo Gao

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters.

Chapter 1: Behavioral heterogeneity among investors has been shown to explain the volatile nature of stock markets. In this chapter, I investigate the different behaviors of investors by proposing a heterogeneous agent model based on Chiarella et al. (2012) which involves fundamentalists, chartists, and noise traders with two-state hidden-Markov regime switching expectations. By applying the S&P 500 and CPI data from January 1990 to December 2020, the model shows strong evidence of behavioral heterogeneity among different groups of traders. After an in-sample backtesting and out-of-sample forecasting which further evaluate the capability of the model, …

Hudson Yards: Hybrid Capital's New Home, Massimo D. Scoditti

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This thesis focuses on the material and metaphysical aspects of the Hudson Yards, the largest private development in US History. With its roots in the administration of Michael Bloomberg, the site is representative of neoliberal ideology. It is also one in which cultural production is central. This is in terms of the rationalization and mythos of the building of the space itself and the dreamworlds created to obscure the mechanisms of extraction and accumulation that make such a complex possible. The Hudson Yards is particularly interesting because, as Cindi Katz might suggest, topography lines connect it to transnational capital. And …

Essays On Empirical Asset Pricing Models, Somayeh Ahmadi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This thesis examines co-movement across industry return and value and momentum asset price anomalies through a new perspective and uses machine learning and spatial econometrics approaches. The first chapter examines the main approaches developed in the cross-section asset pricing literature for finding risk variables. The second chapter focuses on spatial co-movement across US industry returns. We show that spatial co-movement explains the variance in US industry returns after accounting for exposure to common variables, serial dynamics, and industry sector-specific characteristics using a dynamic spatial panel data model. The results show that an investment strategy that buys industry portfolios with high …

Liquidity Commonality With Factor Models, Ernesto Garcia Iii

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Market microstructure research has recently devoted attention to a phenomenon called commonality in liquidity. In this dissertation, I will analyze commonality in liquidity using a novel factor model approach and a generalized definition of commonality in liquidity. This analysis will show that commonality in liquidity is rarely a marketwide phenomenon and is mostly restricted to stocks with a large market capitalization. Additionally, commonality in liquidity is a very recent phenomenon whose appearance coincides with a rise in passive investing after the Dotcom Bubble burst and, more so, after the 2008 Financial Crisis. I will present evidence that suggests commonality in …

Essays In Monetary And Macroprudential Policies, Mikheil Dvalishvili

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1 Using a medium scale general equilibrium New Keynesian business cycle model with macroprudential policy and news shocks I study the effectiveness of various combinations of the monetary and macroprudential policies. I incorporate defaults both in the banking sector and households. The results show that out of the policy strategies considered the standard Taylor rule combined with the LTV requirement that reacts countercyclically to the deviation of house prices from the steady state yields higher welfare as compared with all the other strategies considered. Additionally, the standard Taylor rule combined with either of the countercyclical LTV requirements mitigates the …

The Effects Of Environmental Corporate Social Responsibility On Financial Returns, Kevin Acevedo

Theses and Dissertations

A major issue concerning companies is global warming and the impact that firms have on the environment. Companies are taking steps towards sustainability, but it is unclear if sustainable business practices are beneficial to companies’ financial performance. This paper examines the effect of environmental corporate social responsibility (CSR) of Fortune 250 companies on financial performance. The analysis reveals significant effects on financial performance, but they are inconsistent and hard to interpret.

Exchange Rate Forecast Model: Factor Analysis, Swapnil Landge

Publications and Research

Forecasting the exchange rate using factor analysis, factors based on cross section exchange rates of different economies in terms of trade, would beat random walk model in longer out of sample horizon forecasting. In this research project, we will replicate the NBER working paper Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates” by Charles Engel, Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West (2012) which has used 17 OECD countries exchange rates in getting the potential factors but with extended time period from 1973:1-2021:4. We will report early sample forecasting statistics for a 1987-1998 sample. Results for late samples (1999-2022) were promising, at …

Divergent Expectations And Dynamic Price Discovery, Shankar Narayanan

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Purpose: To provide empirical evidence supporting the claim that divergent expectations underlie price formation during the U.S. equity market opening hours. We focus on earnings announcements to support this claim. This dissertation argues that the clarity of earnings announcements and a firm’s balance sheets is inversely associated with the quality of price discovery during the opening hours after the earnings announcements, as ambiguities in information underlie divergence in expectation. We look at short-term volatility during the opening half-hours of U.S. equity markets after the earnings announcements to assess the quality of price discovery. We also consider changes in short-term …

Essays On Green Finance, Elsa Allman

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: Pricing Climate Change Risk in Corporate Bonds

Using a firm’s geographic footprint to measure its exposure to sea level rise (SLR), I find that corporate bonds bear a climate risk premium upon issuance. A one standard deviation increase in firms’ SLR exposure is associated with a 7 basis point premium, representing a 3% increase in average yield spread. This effect is more pronounced for geographically concentrated firms, within industries vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, and after the Paris Agreement. I do not find evidence that credit rating agencies account for SLR exposure at bond issuance. Results are robust …

Dealer Networks In Over-The-Counter (Otc) Financial Markets, Richmond Kyei-Fordjour

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This research studies a network of interdealer trading in Over-The-Counter (OTC) Financial Markets. It reviews a model of OTC interdealer trading, extends this model for suitable application to empirical studies of trading in dealer networks within OTC markets, and ultimately develops a methodology for estimating the endogenous network parameters. Finally, it applies the methodology to conduct an empirical study of the Municipal bonds market.