Finance Commons^™

Enviromental Burden And Financial Performance Of Manufacturing Companies On Borsa Istanbul: An Exploratory Circular-Economy-Aligned Assessment Using The Aroman Method, Sibel Fettahoglu, Ejder Ayçin, Büşra Karslı Günay

Journal of Environmental Science and Sustainable Development

Türkiye's 2053 net-zero emissions target and the critical role of the manufacturing sector in this process necessitate an urgent examination of the financial impacts of circular economy (CE) practices. This study provides an exploratory analysis of the relationship between environmental burden and financial performance using 2023 data from 26 manufacturing companies in Borsa Istanbul. Given the difficulty of measuring holistic circularity at the company level, this study operationalizes the environmental dimension of circular economy performance using selected environmental burden indicators, including energy and water consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and waste generation. The study uses the alternative ranking order method accounting …

Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Insights For Risk Management And Investment Strategies: Evidence From China, India, And Pakistan Using Bekk-Garch Models, Samreen Fatima, Humera Sultana, Muhammad Najamuddin Dr., Saba Naz

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This study investigates the dynamics of volatility and its spillover effects between the stock markets of China, India, and Pakistan, and their respective exchange rates (USD/CNY, USD/INR, and USD/ PKR). Volatility is modeled using the Symmetric and Asymmetric BEKK-GARCH (1,1) and DCCGARCH (1,1) models, based on daily return series covering the period from January 1, 2019, to January 31, 2025. The empirical results indicate that both the employed models are adequate for capturing the volatility dynamics. The findings reveal that the highest value of portfolio weights and hedging efficiency of KSE-100 Index–USD/PKR provide optimal portfolio allocation and highest hedging performance …

Reasoning On Time-Series For Financial Technical Analysis, Kelvin J. L. Koa, Jan Chen, Yunshan Ma, Huanhuan Zheng, Tat-Seng Chua

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

While Large Language Models have been used to produce interpretable stock forecasts, they mainly focus on analyzing textual reports but not historical price data, also known as Technical Analysis. This task is challenging as it switches between domains: the stock price inputs and outputs lie in the time-series domain, while the reasoning step should be in natural language. In this work, we introduce Verbal Technical Analysis (VTA), a novel framework that combine verbal and latent reasoning to produce stock time-series forecasts that are both accurate and interpretable. To reason over time-series, we convert stock price data into textual annotations and …

Measuring Market Risk Through Entropic Var, Dragomir Nedeltchev, Tsvetelin Zaevski

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

The article aims to measure the market risk beyond the basic risk measures like the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Expected Shortfall (ES). The Entropic Value-at-Risk is selected among the available measures based on its advantages -- it is the coherent upper bound of the VaR and ES. This risk measure is applied to the classical Black-Scholes model as well as to some more realistic ones, such as the exponential tempered stable model (the log-returns are presented by a tempered stable L\'evy process), the stochastic volatility model of Heston, its jump extension of Bates, and another stochastic volatility model but with …

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

Volatility Modeling With An Application To Risk Parity Portfolios, Kenneth Hou

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies volatility modeling in the context of risk parity portfolio construction. I compare three risk parity portfolios that differ only in their underlying volatility model: a historical covariance baseline, a Bayesian stochastic volatility model, and a GRU–GARCH hybrid neural network. Using daily returns on Kenneth French’s five industry portfolios from January 2016 through December 2025, I construct monthly rebalanced portfolios under each model, with the SV and GRU forecasts embedded in hybrid covariance matrices that combine forecasted volatilities with rolling historical correlations. The results document a divergence between forecast accuracy and portfolio performance: the SV model is the …

Rank Rebalancing In Commodity And Foreign Exchange Markets, Prateek D. Vyas

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis empirically tests the rank-rebalancing mechanism of Stochastic Portfolio Theory (SPT) across commodity futures, foreign exchange futures, and equity ETFs. The Reverse Price-Weighted strategy (RPW) assigns, to each asset, the market weight of the asset at the opposite price rank, and generates an annualized excess return of 2.90% over the price-weighted (MKT) commodity benchmark, during the period of November 1977 to October 2025 (HAC t = 2.058, p = 0.040). The differential Sharpe ratio (dSharpe) of 0.245 is confirmed by a stationary block bootstrap, with a 𝑝-value of 0.015, and factor regressions controlling for carry, momentum, and value yield …

Entropic Foundation Of Finance And Physics: Securities Price Dynamics And Quantum Theory, Mohammad Abedi

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

In many scientific and financial contexts, we must reason and make predictions under conditions of incomplete information. This dissertation develops Entropic Dynamics (ED) as a unified framework for deriving dynamical laws directly from principles of inference. Within this approach, probability distributions represent states of knowledge, and their evolution is determined through entropy maximization subject to relevant constraints. This leads to a novel concept of entropic time and a formulation of dynamics as an inferential process. In this talk, I will present how ED provides a common foundation across multiple domains. In physics, quantum dynamics for particles and scalar fields in …

Financial Literacy And Inclusion Of Philippine Jeepney And Tricycle Drivers, Bryan N. Bernabe, Jyro B. Triviño

Leadership and Strategy Faculty Publications

The study investigated how the different elements of financial literacy influence the financial inclusion of jeepney and tricycle drivers in Caloocan, Metro Manila. Pearson correlation analysis revealed a positive correlation between financial inclusion and attitude, behavior, knowledge, and skills. Additionally, analysis of variance highlighted that education and age play significant roles in enhancing financial literacy. The linear regression findings also supported the idea that income acts as a positive moderator, augmenting the impact of financial literacy on financial inclusion. The study attempted to disaggregate its financial literacy components to understand their impact on financial inclusion, but its interrelationships also require …

Application Paths Of Semantic Modeling In Financial Fraud Detection And Risk Identification, Victor P. Gauthier, Daniel S. Wu

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Financial fraud and risk pose significant threats to economic stability and individual well-being. Traditional detection methods often struggle to keep pace with increasingly sophisticated fraudulent schemes. Semantic modeling, which focuses on understanding the meaning and relationships within data, offers a promising avenue for enhancing fraud detection and risk identification. This review paper explores the application paths of semantic modeling in this domain. We begin with a historical overview of fraud detection techniques, highlighting the limitations of traditional approaches. Subsequently, we delve into core themes, including knowledge graph-based fraud detection and semantic rule-based inference for risk assessment. We then compare and …

Privately Owned Companies Dominate Renewable Energy Generation Ownership Around The World, Dyaran Bansraj, Theodor Florian Cojoianu, Xi Hu, Khaladdin Rzayev, Francisco Urzua

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

Global sustainable finance policies are premised on publicly listed companies driving decarbonization through transparency, investor pressure, and capital market access. Analysing c. 20,000 corporate owners of renewable and fossil-fuel assets worldwide, we show the opposite: private firms own approximately 75% of global renewable generation capacity. This private dominance holds across all major technologies and regions, with listed ownership of renewable assets being the majority only in the oil & gas and technology sectors. The Paris Agreement did not alter this balance. Instead, ownership of the energy transition reflects countries' financial structures, with similar patterns observed across manufacturing, construction, and financial …

Doughnut Economics And Strong Sustainability: Rethinking The Role Of Financial Investment, Isabelle Pierotti

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis investigates how private investment could align doughnut economic framework. Doughnut economics is a strong sustainability economic framework where the economy operates within planetary boundaries while ensuring social equity. Theories of sustainable development, weak sustainability, and strong sustainability are discussed to provide theoretical context for doughnut economics and mainstream economics. The analysis concludes that conventional, profit maximizing private investment does not support a doughnut economics system by supporting the depletion of natural resources and exacerbating social issues. Sustainable mainstream investment also fails to support a doughnut framework. Lastly, while impact investment is theoretically committed to social and financial returns, …

Investigating The Market Dynamics Of Aeroponically Cultivated Products With Delay, Pulak Kundu, Uzzwal Kumar Mallick

Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation with Applications

Aeroponically grown potatoes offer higher yields and year-round production but often face delayed market entry due to high setup costs, technical barriers, and logistical challenges. A delay-based mathematical model has been newly proposed in this study to analyze the dynamics of demand, supply, and pricing for aeroponically grown products. The model’s existence, stability, and sensitivity have been investigated analytically, and numerical simulations have been carried out using the Runge-Kutta 4th order method with the dde23 solver. Findings reveal that market stability is maintained when delays are below seven years, but delays beyond this threshold lead to persistent fluctuations in price, …

Robust Ai Solutions For Financial Markets Through Generative Modeling, Dynamic Graph Learning, And Reinforcement-Based Portfolio Optimization, Jingyi Gu

Dissertations

Financial markets are inherently uncertain and dynamic, driven by complex factors such as macroeconomic signals, investor sentiment, and evolving inter-asset relationships. While machine learning has advanced financial modeling, existing approaches often fall short in addressing the real-world intricacies of finance. This dissertation confronts two critical challenges, human-driven stochasticity and risk-intensive decision-making under real-world trading constraints, while seizing a pivotal opportunity, the structural dynamics of evolving financial systems. These elements are foundational to advancing robust and practical financial intelligence.

To this end, this dissertation develops a unified framework for robust financial modeling and decision-making. The framework is architected as a progressive, …

Nba Player Types And Salaries: Assessing The Disparities In Pay, Nick Riccardi, Rodney J. Paul

Sport Management - All Scholarship

The purpose of this study was to identify player types that exist in the modern National Basketball Association (NBA), test whether player types are paid differently controlling for performance and other factors and construct successful rosters with cheaper payrolls.
We collected performance statistics and salary data for players and teams across five seasons (2018-19 to 2022-23). Cluster analysis is leveraged to group together player-seasons to identify the player types that exist in the NBA. Linear regression models are run to test for differences in pay by cluster membership while controlling for performance, age, and contractual details. Linear programming simulation models …

The Evolution Of Global Gold And Copper Trade Networks, Oleksandr Hulianskyi

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Gold and copper have emerged as two of the most vital commodities in global trade. Despite serving distinct purposes, their international trade networks reveal interconnected patterns, critical to understanding the dynamics of global economics. This paper studies these attributes and their evolution during the last 36 years for both metals and finds correlations between them. The first part of the research is focused on the sustainability of networks through efficiency and robustness indexes; the second part is dedicated to interconnectedness – the Louvain and Bayesian SBM algorithms, partition, and modularity instruments are used. Community detection algorithms provide valuable insights into …

Welfare Implication Of Alternative Tax Rates Adjustment Policy In Nigeria: A Dsge Analysis, Umar B. Ibrahim, Isah F. Abubakar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study sets out to determine the desirable policy adjustment in the tax rate for Nigeria that ensures the least welfare cost. A calibrated small open-economy New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NKDSGE) model of the Nigerian economy is applied to achieve this objective. Within this framework, we examined the impact of an increase in value-added tax (VAT) rate from 7.5 to 15 percent on key macroeconomic variables relative to the impact of an increase in company income tax (CIT) rate from 30 to 35 percent on macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we examined the welfare costs of the increases in the …

From Neural Networks To Large Language Models: Innovations In Financial Ai, Mathematical Reasoning, And Structured Data Representation, Junyi Ye

Dissertations

This dissertation explores the evolution and application of artificial intelligence techniques across three critical domains: financial modeling, mathematical reasoning, and structured data analysis. The dissertation presents seven research projects that chart a progression from specialized neural architectures to sophisticated large language models (LLMs), contributing novel methodologies and frameworks at each stage.

In the financial domain, the research first introduces TS-Mixer, a MLP-based architecture for time-series forecasting that captures both feature relationships and temporal dependencies through a simple yet effective design, outperforming more complex models in S&P500 index prediction. The dissertation then presents DySTAGE, a dynamic graph representation learning framework that …

Who Owns The Wind: The Absence Of Community Wind Farms In California, Sky Berry-Weiss

Master's Projects and Capstones

Community ownership structures for wind farms have been around for decades, particularly in European countries, due to high socioeconomic benefits. Given these significant benefits, one might expect community wind to thrive in the United States—especially in a state like California, which prides itself on progressive climate policy and renewable energy leadership. Yet utility-scale community wind remains largely absent from research on California’s energy system, raising questions about its existence in the state. To pinpoint how many utility-scale community owned wind farms are in California, this study surveys every operational wind turbine in the state. After classifying each wind farm by …

Mortgage Default Classification Modeling For Variable Analysis, Brendan R. Goggins

Honors College Theses

The financial crisis of the early 2000’s is a prime example of the severe consequences that mortgage default and borrower insolvency can have on economies at large. Mortgage default specifically is a prime case with the popularization of mortgage backed securities and the commonality of this loan structure. Multiple hypotheses and models have been formed to understand the reasons, causes, and consequences of mortgage default. This paper uses both machine learning and statistical classification models to inform an understanding of the variables most significant and impactful to the default outcome of mortgages. Consideration is given to both loan-level microeconomic variables …

Do “Say-On-Pay” Votes Affect M&A Decisions?, Shantanu Dutta, Micah S. Officer, Ruixiang Wang, Pengcheng Zhu

Finance Faculty Works

This paper demonstrates that firms receiving above-industry-average support in their “say-on-pay” (SoP) votes engage in more M&A transactions in the subsequent year. Our empirical findings suggest that high levels of SoP voting support may boost managerial confidence, thereby stimulating increased pursuit of acquisitions. Moreover, we observe that managers garnering higher SoP vote support are more likely to secure shareholders' backing in M&A votes, receive higher compensation in successful deals, and face a reduced likelihood of forced turnover following unsuccessful deals. Additionally, we find that both short-term and long-term M&A performance significantly improves in deals announced by managers receiving higher SoP …

Digital Platform Transitions In The Finance Industry: Three Essays, Cheryll-Ann Wilson

2025

This three-paper dissertation is motivated by an emerging dichotomy in the financial sector: an increasing use of an open-source digital platform—the Python platform—in an industry that historically has been wedded to proprietary systems.

Chapter 1 is a qualitative pilot study to ascertain which factors are likely to motivate investment professionals to select Python versus other tools and/or technologies. I find that efficiency and access to industry-specific libraries—notably Pandas and NumPy—are significant motivators in their selection of Python over Excel. Chapters 2 and 3 examine the issues through a sequential, exploratory mixed methods approach.

Chapter 2—the qualitative field study—investigates how and …

Hunting And Fishing Ceos: Environmental Plunderers Or Saviors?, Thomas Covington, Steve Widler, Keven Yost

Finance Faculty Works

CEOs who participate in hunting and fishing benefit by appreciating natural environments and permanently consuming natural resources. We examine whether CEOs who hunt and fish make different environmental decisions and find that firms led by CEOs who obtain the most hunting and fishing licenses have lower environmental performance as measured by MSCI-KLD. This effect is strongest in the environmental category of climate change but also extends to pollution, waste, and the protection of natural capital. Furthermore, firms led by CEOs with the most hunting and fishing licenses are significantly more likely to pay a regulatory settlement for an environmental regulatory …

Capital Structure Models And Contingent Convertible Securities, Di Meng

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

The 2007-09 financial crisis showed financial institutions are vulnerable during distressed times. As an alternative resolution to a government bail-out, contingent convertible securities (contingent capital or CoCos) were proposed by various researchers. CoCo is a hybrid capital security that converts from a bond to common equity when a pre-determined event occurs. The loss absorption mechanism of CoCo is essential to the financial health of a bank during a crisis as it provides an instant capital infusion when public capital is difficult to access.

In this thesis, we first implement a methodology to calibrate capital structure models for large Canadian banks. …

Covariance Matrix Forecasting Of Equity Portfolios, Michael Nebor

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation consists of two papers. The first paper introduces DCC-SVR, a hybrid Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) method of forecasting the covariance matrix. This paper shows that DCC-SVR is able to outperform the traditional methods of DCC and rolling historical on multiple data sets. Performance is shown for both standard GARCH and GJR-GARCH methods. This paper also analyzes performance when dimensions are increased to 49 dimensions and when an application using equal weighted portfolio allocation is used.

The second paper introduces a covariance matrix forecasting method based on copula-GARCH simulated returns. The accuracy of this …

Efficient Algorithms For Nearest Correlation Matrix Computation With Missing Data, Ibrahim Eniola Oyeyinka

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

This thesis investigates efficient algorithms for computing the Nearest Correlation Matrix (NCM) under incomplete financial data. Correlation matrices are vital in portfolio optimization and risk management, yet empirical estimates often violate symmetry, positive semidefiniteness, and unit diagonal conditions due to missing observations. Two projection-based methods are analyzed: the Modified Alternating Projections (MAP) and Anderson Acceleration (AA). Theoretical analysis using convex optimization and normal cone characterization supports numerical evaluation on synthetic and real-world stock-return matrices (550×550, 2020–2025). Missing data are modeled through Missing Completely at Random (MCAR) and Not Missing at Random (NMAR) mechanisms. The results show that AA converges faster …

Can Corporate Sustainability Performance (Csp) Overcome Indonesia's Corporate Debt Problems?, Johnson Ferry Febrian, Nora Sri Hendriyeni

Jurnal Akuntansi dan Keuangan Indonesia

Based on IMF publications (2022), Indonesian companies have a risky debt level that may cause bankruptcy, so companies are required to make leverage adjustments to return the debt to its optimal level. In recent years, corporate sustainability performance (CSP) practices have been proven to improve performance and overcome financial problems such as debt by integrating sustainability aspects into business processes. Based on stakeholder theory and trade-off theory, this study aims to examine the effect of CSP on leverage adjustment and the role of competitive advantage, equity mispricing, profitability, and firm size in moderating this relationship. This study used a sample …

Comparison Of Value At Risk Using Historical And Monte Carlo Methods On Pt Xyz Stock Portofolio, Eka Fitriani, Yulial Hikmah, Ira Rosianal Hikmah

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

One way to achieve profits in a company is through investment activities. However, everything has risks. Investing can also be risky. Therefore, the relationship between risk and investment is important because it will influence the determination of investment selection. The problem faced by investors is choosing an efficient portfolio, or a portfolio that provides the smallest risk. This risk can be done by measuring risk, one of which is using the Value at Risk (VaR) measure. Measurement using Value at Risk has several methods that are quite popular, namely the Historical Method, Variance-Covariance, and Monte Carlo. In this research, the …

Three Essays Applying Dynamic Models In Economics, Finance, And Machine Learning, Lucas C. Dowiak

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation is a composition in three parts. Collectively, these essays investigate dynamic methods and their application in the fields of Economics, Finance, and Machine Learning. It pulls liberally from all three. In particular, this dissertation makes repeated use of multi-state modeling frameworks popular in Economics to bring a faceted view to the underlying data and detect its hidden heterogeneity. The challenge of modeling financial assets and estimating their dependence is another focus. For stimulus, concepts in the Machine Learning field are brought in to aid or compete with established econometric techniques.

Econometric Applications of the Hierarchical Mixture-of-Experts

In this …

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …