Financialization And Price Volatility: An Empirical Analysis On Speculation In The Oil Market, Audry F. Oliveira Carnivale

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Financialization has facilitated the trade of futures contracts because of deregulatory policies increasing speculation. Speculation has created a more fragile market inducing riskier investments and aggravating price volatility. Three post-Keynesian theories, the financial instability hypothesis, money manager capitalism and markup, explain how policy altering the banking structure has developed financialization from lax regulation. Previous research has emphasized supply and demand as the main determinants of oil price changes, but it’s important to consider how structural changes from policy stimulating a more financialized economy has impacted volatility. With Brent Crude oil price data and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) open interest and …

Subjective Well-Being Across The Life Course Among Non-Industrialized Populations, Michael Gurven, Yoann Buoro, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Katherine Sayre, Benjamin Trumble, Aili Pyhälä, Hillard Kaplan, Arild Angelsen, Jonathan Stieglitz, Victoria Reyes-Garcia

ESI Publications

Subjective well-being (SWB) is often described as being U-shaped over adulthood, declining to a midlife slump and then improving thereafter. Improved SWB in later adulthood has been considered a paradox given age-related declines in health and social losses. While SWB has mostly been studied in high-income countries, it remains largely unexplored in rural subsistence populations lacking formal institutions that reliably promote social welfare. Here, we evaluate the age profile of SWB among three small-scale subsistence societies (n = 468; study 1), forest users from 23 low-income countries (n = 6987; study 2), and Tsimane’ horticulturalists (n = …

Political Ideology, Emotion Response, And Confirmation Bias, David L. Dickinson

ESI Publications

Motivated reasoning can serve to help resolve emotional discomfort, which suggests emotion as a likely moderator of such reasoning. This paper addresses a gap in the literature by examining emotion and confirmation bias in the political domain. Results from two preregistered studies, which involved over 900 unique participants, document a confirmation bias across distinct dimensions of belief and preference formation. Also, ideologically dissonant information significantly worsens self-reported emotion. With some exceptions, the evidence generally supports the hypothesis that negative emotion moderates the strength of the bias, which highlights the importance of emotion response in understanding and potentially counteracting confirmation bias.

A Simple Higher-Order Rational Email-Game Bubble Model And Some Implications For Momentum, Feng Liu

Hunt Institute Working Paper Series

We propose a simple higher-order rational greater-fool bubble model, where the period-1 information structure is motivated by an “information leakage” story, reminiscent of Rubinstein’s (1989) email game. Our nth-order bubble model requires only n + 2 states, and is thus simpler than that in Conlon (2004), which required n^2 + 5n + 5 states. Our model is also related to the two-agent-type case of the Araujo and Doblas-Madrid’s (2022) model, and we argue that our model might therefore not capture “momentum,” though simple extensions of it may be able to.

What Is The Fallacy Of Approximation?, Matthew Hammerton, Sovan Patra

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Many philosophers appeal to the “fallacy of approximation”, or “problem of second best”. However, despite the pervasiveness of such appeals, there has been only a single attempt to provide a systematic account of what the fallacy is. We identify the shortcomings of this account and propose a better one in its place. Our account not only captures all the contexts in which approximation-based reasoning occurs but also systematically explains the several different ways in which it can be in error.

Adam Smith, Human Betterment, And His Erroneous Indentification With Self-Interested Human Action, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Publications

In this essay I discuss the proposition that Adam Smith has been widely misinterpreted as asserting in his second book, The Wealth of Nations, that emergent modern economies are driven by the strictly selfish motives of their human inhabitants. The propositions articulated in his first book, The Theory of Moral Sentiments, which offered a theory of society, extended seamlessly into his second book, and continued to be part of his theory of economy. In both works, he distinguished the universal state of being self-interested from actions taken in one's self-interest, and modeled people as creating and following rules of propriety …

Axiomatic Characterization Of Generalized Neo-Eu Preferences And The Falsifiability Of Ambiguity Theories, Manuel Nunez, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

We introduce a new weakening of the independence axiom, co-extreme independence, which we show characterizes a class that encompasses popular ambiguity models including Hurwicz preferences, ϵ-contamination preferences, and NEOEU preferences. Importantly, our representation unifies these as forms of simple ambiguity models as we show that the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension of these models is either unity or increases linearly with the number of states. In contrast, standard ambiguity models characterized in the Anscombe-Aumann framework are complex ambiguity models that have a VC dimension that is either infinite or increases exponentially in the number of states. We show that simple ambiguity preferences …

A Critical Evaluation Of Loss Aversion As The Determinate Of Effort In Compensation Framing, Timothy W. Shields, James Wilhelm

ESI Working Papers

A robust finding in managerial accounting research is that participants prefer contracts framed as bonuses to economically equivalent contracts framed as penalties. Another finding is that participants put forth more effort when facing penalty contracts than equivalent bonus contracts. Both results are commonly described as due to loss aversion, an integral portion of prospect theory. We test whether loss aversion is correlated with higher effort in an experiment with two parts. In the first part, we elicit individual participants' loss aversion using two measures. In the second part of the experiment, participants choose costly effort to increase the likelihood of …

On Explaining Why The (Human) World Is Rich, Bart J. Wilson

ESI Working Papers

The wealth of the modern world is a natural historical marvel. Explaining it has traditionally been the purview of economic historians, as exemplified by the recent book How the World Became Rich by Mark Koyama and Jared Rubin. Economic historians, though, tend to only ask process-oriented “how” questions and “by what means” questions of the Great Enrichment. The eight co-authors of Explaining Technology, who are not economic historians, engage the debate asking a different question. Their goal is to explain the exponential shape of our enrichment with a model of the combinatorial evolution of technology. With an eye toward how …

Associative Networks In Decision Making, Jiangtao Li, Rui Tang, Mu Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We present a model of associative networks that captures how a decision maker expands her consideration set through mental associations between alternatives. This model serves as a tool to understand the influence of association on decision making. As a proof of concept, we characterize this model within a random attention framework and demonstrate that all the relevant parameters are uniquely identifiable. Notably, in a novel choice domain where not all observable alternatives are available, the presence of unavailable alternatives can affect the choice frequencies of other alternatives through association.

Gambling Habits And Probability Judgements In A Bayesian Task Environment, David L. Dickinson, Parker Reid

ESI Publications

Little is known about how gamblers form probability assessments. This paper reports on a preregistered study that administered an incentivized Bayesian choice task to n = 465 self-reported gamblers and non-gamblers. The task elicits subjective probability assessments and allows one to estimate the degree to which distinct information sources are weighted in forming probability assessments. Our data failed to support our main hypotheses that experienced online gamblers would be more accurate than non-gamblers in estimating probabilities, that gamblers experienced in games of skill (e.g., poker) would be more accurate than gamblers experienced only in non-skill games (e.g., slots), that accuracy …

Analisis Teori Antrian Dan Optimalisasi Pelayanan Pada Watsons Cabang Bendungan Hillir Menggunakan Model Singel Channel-Single Phase, Raditya Agung Nugroho, Devini Kartikasari

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

Abstract

Watsons is a health and beauty stores which in service to consumers, so service must be considered and taken into account for consumer convenience. The purpose of this study is to see how optimal the service at Watsons bendungan hillir branch, watsons convenience stores use a single channel-single phase queuing system.The Single Channel-Single Phase queue model is very appropriate to use because buyers can be served well and get optimal time. This can be seen from the number of individuals or buyers waiting in the queue (Lq) with a value of 0.001. The average number of buyers in the …

Teng-Go Axis Package: A Marketing Efforts Analysis, Alessandra Dwi Maharani

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

This study's purpose is to analyze the marketing efforts of Teng-Go Package by Axis. In this study, the method used is a qualitative approach with literature reviews regarding the related topics and external analysis using several analytical frameworks. The analysis frameworks carried out in this article consists of three broad sectors, which are Company Analysis with Marketing Mix and SWOT Analysis, Customer Analysis with STP Analysis, and External Analysis with Porter’s Five Forces, and Competitive Landscape Analysis. The output of this article shows that the marketing efforts undertaken by Axis for the Teng-Go Package have gone quite well and are …

Driving Green Investments To Address Climate Change, Baptiste Gibrat

Dartmouth College Master’s Theses

The climate crisis is no longer news, and society needs to accelerate the transition to net zero emissions. Otherwise, the consequences of climate change will become increasingly catastrophic.

This thesis develops a framework to drive green investments, which reduce society’s dependance on fossil fuels. Initially, the research provides a comprehensive examination of these investments, followed by an exploration of three strategies to enhance their adoption: leveraging financial instruments and capital markets, implementing regulatory frameworks, and harnessing the power of technologies. To integrate these elements within a comprehensive framework, the study employs market research, reviews relevant literature, and includes interviews with …

Do Participation Rates Vary With Participation Payments In Laboratory Experiments?, Huizhen Zhong, Cary Deck, Daniel J. Henderson

ESI Working Papers

This paper reports a series of experiments designed to evaluate how the advertised participation payment impacts participation rates in laboratory experiments. Our initial goal was to generate variation in the participation rate as a means to control for selection bias when evaluating treatment effects in common laboratory experiments. Initially, we varied the advertised participation payment to 1734 people from $5 to $15 using standard email recruitment procedures, but found no statistical evidence this impacted the participation rate. A second study increased the advertised payment up to $100. Here, we find marginally significant statistical evidence that the advertised participation payment affects …

Thinking Blue / Writing Red: Marxism And The (Post)Human, Stephen C. Tumino

Publications and Research

Thinking Blue/Writing Red interrogates contemporary culture across a range of texts, from the pandemic (‘Covid’ and ‘Trump Speak’) to high theory (Melville's narratives) and popular culture (Beyoncé's ‘Formation’ and Super Bowl performance, Twin Peaks , metamodern ‘cli-fi’ films). Inspired by Derrida’s idea of the secret, Tumino examines the significance of social movements (Black Lives Matter, Occupy, alter-globalization) and naïve art (Darger, Ryden) to argue that these texts speak of the secrets that capitalism cannot speak. Contending that the cultural surfaces narrate only the ‘nonsecret,’ that to see the social logic of the culture one must dig into what Bruno Latour …

The Effect Of Current Ratio, Net Profit Margin, Roa, Company Age, On Profit Growth& Stock Prices During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Gayatri Rejeki, Erwin Harinurdin

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

The purpose of this study was conducted to examine the effect of Current Ratio (CR), Net Profit Margin (NPM), Return On Assets (ROA), and Company Age on Profit Growth and the Effect of Profit Growth on Stock Prices on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2018-2021. This research is a quantitative type. The population in this study are companies on the LQ45 index listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in the 2018-2021 period with a total sample of 34 companies. This study used a purposive sampling method. Methods of data analysis using descriptive statistics, comparative analysis, multiple linear regression analysis, and classical …

A Robust Optimization Approach To Mechanism Design, Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the design of mechanisms when the mechanism designer faces local uncertainty about agents’ beliefs. Specifically, we consider a designer who does not know the exact beliefs of the agents but is confident that her estimate is within ϵ of the beliefs held by the agents (where ϵ reflects the degree of local uncertainty). Adopting the robust optimization approach, we design mechanisms that incentivize agents to truthfully report their payoff-relevant information regardless of their actual beliefs. For any fixed ϵ, we identify necessary and sufficient conditions under which requiring this sense of robustness is without loss of revenue for …

The Law Of General Average, Luca Anderlini, Joshua C. Teitelbaum

Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works

Part of a ship's cargo is jettisoned in order to save the vessel and the remaining cargo from imminent peril. How should the loss be shared among the cargo owners? The law of general average, an ancient principle of maritime law, prescribes that the owners share the loss proportionally according to the respective values of their cargo. We analyze whether the law of general average is a truthful and efficient mechanism. That is, we investigate whether it induces truthful reporting of cargo values and yields a Pareto efficient allocation in equilibrium. We show that the law of general average is …

The Effect Of Crime On Tourism In Indonesia, Muhammad Farhan, Hera Susanti

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

Tourism sector is widely known as one of economic sectors that can be the engine of economic growth in an effort to reduce poverty in a country. However, growth in the tourism sector can be influenced by safety factors. Tourists tend to avoid tourism destination areas with high crime rates in order to avoid becoming victims of crime. This study aims to analyze the effect of crime on the number of tourist arrivals in Indonesia by using four proxies of crime, which are total crime rate, property crime rate, violent crime rate, and fraud crime rate. This study utilizes a …

Coordination Within And Across Two Cultures, Gabriele Camera, James Gilmore, Marilyn Giselle Hazlett, Jason Shachat, Bochen Zhu

ESI Working Papers

We study within- and cross-culture interaction in a Stag Hunt game, using a controlled online experiment with Chinese and American participants. We find that cross-culture interactions can have a positive impact on efficiency. American participants, particularly females, more frequently selected the efficient but risky action when facing a Chinese counterpart. Chinese male participants, instead, less frequently selected the efficient but risky action when facing an American counterpart. These behavioral asymmetries do not support the notion of cultural equivalence, nor the hypothesis that multiculturalism fosters strategic uncertainty.

The Examination Of The Mathematical Calculation On Premium Reserve Modifications For Endowment-Life Insurance Products, Farisa Salwa Fatimah, Debrina Ferezagia, Wira Darmiza

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

Insurance offers numerous advantages in managing the diverse dangers it encounters. The level of compensation provided is contingent upon the magnitude of the premium remitted. A fraction of the premium collected by the company must be allocated as a premium reserve to ensure that the company will not have any challenges in settling future claims. The calculation of premium reserves is performed through the utilization of prospective and retrospective reserve methods, which rely on net premiums as the foundation for the computation. The premium reserve calculation approach employs both the Canadian and Full Preliminary Term methodologies. The objective of this …

The Influence Of System Optimization On Improving The Quality Of Administrative Services In The Ministry Of Education, Culture, Research And Technology, Mohammad Ridha, Dhini Novia Azaria

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

ABSTRACT

Correspondence and record management are crucial components of a company or institute. Although often considered as things that do not require primary attention, these two components can have a very important role in the occurrence of an event. Along with the development of technology, the management of correspondence and archives is also growing. Generally, the development of this management is in the form of the emergence of an application that can accommodate the needs of correspondence and archives of a company or institute. In Ministry of Education, Culture, Research, and Technology, the application is called "Sistem Naskah Dinas Elektronik" …

Rank-Guaranteed Auctions, Wei He, Jiangtao Li, Weijie Zhong

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a combinatorial ascending auction that is “approximately” optimal, requiring minimal rationality to achieve this level of optimality, and is robust to strategic and distributional uncertainties. Specifically, the auction is rankguaranteed, meaning that for any menu M and any valuation profile, the ex-post revenue is guaranteed to be at least as high as the highest revenue achievable from feasible allocations, taking the (|M| + 1)th-highest valuation for each bundle as the price. Our analysis highlights a crucial aspect of combinatorial auction design, namely, the design of menus. We provide simple and sufficient menus in various settings.

Two Essays On Asset Prices Around Securities Class Action Lawsuits, Sounak Saha

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

Essay 1: Prior studies on securities class action lawsuits have found that there are large negative abnormal returns and an increase in short-selling activity in the days preceding the lawsuit filing. These findings have largely been attributed to anticipatory inference and private information. However, our analysis of a large sample spanning 2009-2019 reveals that more than half of the lawsuits had a public announcement about the law firm investigation in the days leading up to the lawsuit filing. Strikingly, we find that the average cumulative abnormal return during the 10-day pre-filing period was: (1) over -17% for lawsuits with a …

Coarse Revealed Preference, Gaoji Hu, Jiangtao Li, John K-H Quah, Rui Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a novel concept of rationalization, called coarse rationalization, tailored for the analysis of datasets where an agent’s choices are imperfectly observed. We characterize those datasets which are rationalizable in this sense and present an efficient algorithm to verify the characterizing condition. We then demonstrate how our results can be applied through a duality approach to test the rationalizability of datasets with perfectly observed choices but imprecisely observed linear budget sets. For datasets that consist of both perfectly observed feasible sets and choices but are inconsistent with perfect rationality, our results could be used to measure the extent to …

The Effect Of The Claim Recovery Process On Claim Payments In Insurance, Aulia Yasmin, Karin Amelia Safitri, Fachri Muslim

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

The policies and tactics used by an insurance company to effectively handle and recover claims are referred to as the claim recovery process policy. Ensuring total operational stability, preserving customer satisfaction, and limiting financial losses all depend on this approach. The recovery process policy is covered in this study along with how it affects how well a corporation manages risk. A review of the literature and interviews with many employees are part of the research methodology. It was discovered that one of the insurance companies in Indonesia still needed to improve (digitize) its current policy regarding the recovery process. This …

Comparison Of Value At Risk Using Historical And Monte Carlo Methods On Pt Xyz Stock Portofolio, Eka Fitriani, Yulial Hikmah, Ira Rosianal Hikmah

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

One way to achieve profits in a company is through investment activities. However, everything has risks. Investing can also be risky. Therefore, the relationship between risk and investment is important because it will influence the determination of investment selection. The problem faced by investors is choosing an efficient portfolio, or a portfolio that provides the smallest risk. This risk can be done by measuring risk, one of which is using the Value at Risk (VaR) measure. Measurement using Value at Risk has several methods that are quite popular, namely the Historical Method, Variance-Covariance, and Monte Carlo. In this research, the …

Who Helps Tsimane Children And Adults?, Eric Schniter, Daniel K. Cummings, Paul L. Hooper, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble, Hillard S. Kaplan, Michael D. Gurven

ESI Working Papers

We examine various forms of helping behavior among Tsimane Amerindians of Bolivia, focusing on the provision of shelter, childcare, food, sickcare, cultural influence, and traditional story knowledge. Kin selection theory traditionally explains nepotistic nurturing of youth by closely related kin. However, less attention has been given to understanding the help provided by individuals without close genetic relatedness. To explain who provides various forms of help, we evaluate support for several predictions derived from kin selection theory. Our results show that helpers who are most often closely related and from an older generation tend to provide more costly forms of help …

Minimum Wage: Theoretical And Empirical Debates, Ghofran Alrebh

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis aims to explore the evolution of research methodologies in the minimum wage debate, focusing on the contrasting perspectives of the neoclassical and institutional models. By examining the changes in research methodologies employed by economists from these two schools, this study seeks to shed the light on the shifting paradigms and the impact of these changes on our understanding of minimum wage policies and their implications. This highlights the limitations of relying on one economic school of thought in understanding socio-economic phenomena complexations and policy decisions. As well as it creates the necessity to critical evaluation of the method …