Economic Theory Commons^™

The Impact Of Monetary Policy Announcements On Trading Reactions To Earnings Reports, Sean A. Maxfield

Economics Honors Projects

This paper examines trading reactions to quarterly earnings reports and the impact of recent monetary policy announcements by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). It argues that the market, as a product of rational and irrational investor behavior, interprets firms’ financial performance within a broader macroeconomic context, affirming the causal channels found in similar studies. This study differs from prior research by looking at the recent, not simultaneous, monetary policy announcement for each earnings announcement in order to understand if the two types of information remain complementary. By conducting an event study model, this study confirms that the interaction of …

Rationalizable Incentives: Interim Rationalizable Implementation Of Correspondences, Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran, Roberto Serrano

Research Collection School Of Economics

Are there ways to enforce incentives free of equilibrium considerations? When the normative goals for a set of agents can be summarized in a set-valued rule and agents take actions that are rationalizable, a new theory of incentives emerges in which standard Bayesian incentive compatibility (BIC) is relaxed significantly. The paper studies the interim rationalizable implementation of social choice sets with a Cartesian product structure, a leading example thereof being ex-post efficiency. Setwise incentive compatibility (setwise IC), much weaker than BIC, is shown to be necessary for implementation. Setwise IC enforces incentives flexibly within the entire correspondence, instead of the …

A Counterfactual Analysis Of The Impact Of Stock Market Absence On Economic Growth In Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries, Etsub Tekola Jemberu, Adriana Knápková, Bruce Dehning

Accounting Faculty Articles and Research

Despite the global expansion of financial markets as a strategy for financial reform over the past century, around one-sixth of the world’s countries lack a formal stock market. This paper provides novel evidence from nine sub-Saharan African countries on how the absence of stock markets impacts economic growth. Using the synthetic control method (SCM), we estimate the counterfactual GDP per capita these countries would have experienced had they established a stock market during 1993–1995. The findings reveal that the absence of a stock market resulted in substantial losses for most countries, including Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Comoros, Guinea, …

Organizing To Engage: A Framework For Conflict Strategy, Paul Mason Carpenter

Dissertations

Conflict strategy can be exceedingly complex. While many of the basics are simple, even the simple can be highly complicated to execute. The Schlieffen Plan in World War I appeared straight forward, but execution was a great deal more complex. It failed and the result was years of trench warfare.  In addition, leaders entering conflict may not fully appreciate the full context, its effect, and the need for a long term result--a better state of peace.

Strategy and tactics may be challenging to transform as an engagement evolves. In addition, strategists must often commit to courses of action within very …

The Chainsaw Of Liberty: Reversing The Road To Serfdom Through Empirical Austrian Policy In Argentina (2024–2026), Pedro José Ruíz

SPARK Symposium Presentations

This research analyzes the strategic management of "Social Backlash" risk during the implementation of radical "shock therapy" economic reforms in Argentina. For decades, Argentina served as a cautionary tale of interventionism and hyperinflation; however, the 2023 election of Javier Milei transitioned the nation into a real-world laboratory for Austrian Economic principles. This study examines how the administration navigated the friction of institutional resistance—what F.A. Hayek described as the "security trap"—by prioritizing fiscal responsibility and monetary stabilization.

The analysis leverages 2026 empirical data to demonstrate the efficacy of these reforms. Key findings include a dramatic reduction in annual inflation from 211.4% …

Segmentation And Morphometry Of Intracranial Internal Carotid Artery Calcification In Relation To Brain Atrophy, Xiao Xu, Nikhil N. Chaudhari, Phoebe E. Imms, Nahian F. Chowdhury, Fangyun C. Liu, Jorge A. Solis Galvan, Bavrina Bigjahan, Grant Schleifer, Maria Ashna, Blake Hannagan, Giuseppe Barisano, Daniel K. Cummings, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Paul L. Hooper, Edmond Seabright, Randall C. Thompson, Benjamin C. Trumble, Michael D. Gurven, Jonathan Stieglitz, Caleb E. Finch, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Helena C. Chui, Margaret Gatz, Wendy J. Mack, Hillard Kaplan, Andrei Irimia

ESI Publications

Purpose

Intracranial internal carotid artery calcification (iICAC) is a form of intracranial arteriosclerosis and is associated with an elevated risk of stroke and dementia. However, iICAC’s relationship with brain atrophy remains poorly understood. We aimed to automatically quantify iICAC morphometric characteristics and evaluate their associations with regional brain volumes (BVs).

Methods

We developed an automated approach to compute iICAC surface area and thickness from CT brain scans in a sample of physically active South American subsistence farmers (n = 1,232, age range: 40 years to 92 years, 48.1% female, 794 Tsimane and 438 Moseten). Linear regression models were used …

On The Origins Of Modern East Asia: Knowledge And The Economic Transformation Of Japan And China In The Late 19th Century, Debin Ma, Jared Rubin, Weiwen Yin

ESI Working Papers

This paper revisits the old thesis of the contrasting paths of modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of knowledge acquisition (propositional vs. prescriptive) and political centralization as the key drivers behind these contrasting paths. Our model and historical data highlight how the introduction of these elements contributed to Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West and Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism. Our analytical framework, developed from a comparative historical narrative and quantitative data, sheds new light on the importance of knowledge acquisition in enabling developing countries to reach the world’s …

Cbdcs Vs Decentralized Currencies: Considerations For 21st Century Global Financial Challenges, Andrew Michael Sobhy, Shuai Wang

The Downtown Review: An Interdisciplinary Journal Written and Peer-Reviewed by Mandel Honors College Students at Cleveland State University

As digital currencies gain prominence in everyday life, policymakers in the United States at the federal, state, and local levels debate the potential for innovation, surveillance, global relations, and a plethora of areas that concern citizens. While existing literature highlights the opportunities and pitfalls within this new digital age, including inclusivity and challenges to traditional banking, this study aims to contribute a quantitative approach to the discussion utilizing Federal Reserve data, studies from financial institutions, and various credible resources that hold a stake. Specifically, comparing novel Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDCs) and Decentralized Financial Currencies (DeFi) will provide a foundation …

Markets, Agency, And Trust: Ai Agents And The Knowledge Problem, Brennan Mcdavid, Lynne Kiesling, David Chassin

Philosophy Faculty Articles and Research

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming market participation, raising key epistemological questions: Do AI agents enhance or diminish the aggregation of local, private, and tacit knowledge Hayek saw as essential to market processes? How does trust in both markets and AI shape willingness to engage in AI-mediated exchange? This paper examines these issues through market epistemology, agency relationships, and trust epistemology, analyzing how agentic AI reshapes the knowledge problem and principal-agent dynamics. Applying this framework to transactive energy markets, we show that AI shifts decision-making from human cognition to algorithmic processes that require user trust despite epistemic opacity, although it is …

The Poverty Of Algebra, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Anwar Shaikh. (n.d.). The poverty of algebra: Critical notes on neo-Ricardian economics (Unpublished manuscript). Department of Economics, The New School for Social Research, New York, NY.

Notes On The Marxian Notion Of Competition 2, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Notes on the Marxian notion of competition [Unpublished manuscript]. Anwar Shaikh, PhD.

Operational Factors Influencing Branch Revenue In Multi-Branch Child Therapy Services, Muhammad Luthfi

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

The management of multi-branch child therapy services requires a strong understanding of operational factors that contribute to revenue performance. This study aims to analyze the relationship between operational days, occupancy rate, service attendance, and the number of practitioners in relation to branch revenue within a child therapy service organization operating in urban areas in Indonesia. A quantitative cross-sectional design was employed using operational data collected from 24 child therapy services. This study employed a quantitative cross-sectional design using branch-level operational data collected in December 2025 from 24 child therapy service branches. Multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to examine the …

Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Niat Investasi Cryptocurrency Ditinjau Dari Unified Theory Of Acceptance Dan Use Of Technology (Utaut): Tinjauan Literatur, Muazila Norisnita, Selvi Permata Groda

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

This study aims to examine the implementation of the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) in the context of cryptocurrency investment intentions. UTAUT is a modern technology acceptance theory, developed from earlier models of technology adoption, and is commonly used to explore user acceptance of new technologies. In this context, it is applied to cryptocurrency, a relatively new form of investment that relies on technology not previously used in traditional investment instruments such as stocks, commodities, bonds, or mutual funds. UTAUT consists of four key constructs that explain individuals' intention and behavior in adopting a technology: effort …

Stated Preferences For Public Provision Of Services: Experimental Evidence From Latin America, Hernán Bejarano, Matias Busso, Juan Francisco Santos

ESI Working Papers

We study how individuals in six Latin American countries value public versus private provision of education and healthcare using a survey experiment. Respondents were randomly assigned to vignettes that vary income, service quality, and provider type. Reported service quality is the main driver of choices: the probability of selecting a private provider roughly doubles when reported quality of the public option falls from 80 to 20 percent, while income has a smaller effect. Higher institutional trust lowers the likelihood of switching to private providers but does not affect willingness to pay once individuals choose private provision.

Corrigendum To “Interim Rationalizable Implementation Of Functions” (Kunimoto T, Saran R, Serrano R (2024) Mathematics Of Operations Research 49(3):1791–1824), Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran, Roberto Serrano

Research Collection School Of Economics

This is the brief corrigendum to “Interim rationalizable implementation of functions” [Kunimoto T, Saran R, Serrano R (2024) Interim rationalizable implementation of functions. Math. Oper Res. 49(3):1791–1824].

Efficient Bilateral Trade With Interdependent Values: The Use Of Two-Stage Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Efficient, voluntary bilateral trades are generally not implementable in an interdependent values environment with two-sided asymmetric information. To obtain more positive results, we consider two-stage mechanisms in which (i) the outcome (e.g., allocation of the goods) is determined first; (ii) the agents partially learn the state via their own outcome-decision payoffs; and (iii) transfers are finally made. We propose the approximate shoot-the-liar (AS) mechanism and identify Assumption 1, under which “approximately” efficient, voluntary trades are implementable. We further illustrate the permissiveness of the assumption, and characterize it in terms of the nature of interdependence in valuation functions – delineating the …

Existence Of Equilibrium Mechanisms In Generalized Principal-Agent Problems With Interacting Teams, Brian Roberson

ESI Working Papers

We study incentive design when multiple principals simultaneously design mechanisms for their respective teams in environments with strategic spillovers. In this environment, each principal’s set of incentive-compatible mechanisms—those that satisfy their own agents’ incentive compatibility constraints— depends on the mechanisms offered by the other teams. Following a classic example by Myerson (1982), such games may lack equilibrium due to discontinuities in the correspondence of incentive-compatible mechanisms. We establish general conditions for equilibrium existence by introducing a novel approach that involves tracking both the outcome distributions along the truthful-obedient path and the sets of outcome distributions achievable through unilateral deviations, thereby …

Authoritarianism And Conspiracism Around The World, Valerie Capraro, Folca Panizza, Joseph A. Vitriol, Mikey Biddlestone, Andrè Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Alberto López Ortega, Ana Ebert, Max Wan, Praveen Kujal, Karen M. Douglas, Christopher M. Federico, Jolanda Jetten, Sander Van Der Linden, Flávio Azevedo

ESI Working Papers

Authoritarian leaders frequently deploy conspiracy narratives to justify power concentration and delegitimize opponents, yet the link between authoritarianism and conspiracism remains underresearched. Integrating data across six studies from multiple international surveys (N=63,403; 20 countries), expert-coded party systems (71 countries; 14 datasets), and longitudinal panel studies, we demonstrate that individuals with stronger authoritarian orientations are consistently more prone to conspiracism across diverse cultures, political contexts, and time. These results remain robust when controlling for populist attitudes and multiple political, psychological, and demographic variables. The link between authoritarianism and conspiracism appears to constitute a durable and generalizable psychological relationship. This may help …

High Prevalence Of Cerebrovascular Calcifications And Clinical Correlates In Indigenous Bolivian Forager‐Horticulturalists: A Population‐Based Observational Study, Giuseppe Barisano, Bavrina Bigjahan, Grant Schleifer, Maria Ashna, Wendy J. Mack, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Helena C. Chui, Meng Law, Thomas J. Fischbach, Andrei Irimia, Nikhil N. Chaudhari, Daniel K. Cummings, Paul L. Hooper, Jacob E. Aronoff, Ellen E. Walters, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Raul Quispe Gutierrez, Jesus Bani Cuata, Kenneth Buetow, Caleb E. Finch, Michael D. Gurven, Jonathan Stieglitz, Gregory S. Thomas, Randall C. Thompson, Benjamin Trumble, Hillard Kaplan, Margaret Gatz

ESI Publications

Background

Methods

Business Communication Barriers In An Export-Oriented Company: A Case Study Of Pt. Xyz, Sartika Ekadyasa, Arius Krypton

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

This study examines business communication barriers faced by PT. XYZ, an export-oriented company engaged in international business cooperation. Using a qualitative case study approach, data were collected through observation, in-depth interviews, documentation, and literature review. The findings indicate that business communication is influenced by multiple interrelated barriers, including socio-anthro-psychological, technical, and ecological factors, which affect communication effectiveness during coordination, negotiation, and relationship management with foreign business partners. These barriers shape the quality of mutual understanding, trust, and operational efficiency in cross-border interactions. The study highlights the importance of integrated communication strategies that address social, cultural, psychological, technical, and environmental dimensions …

Collaboration Of Economic Institutions Based On Empowerment Programs To Strengthen Food Security: The Case Of Laying Hens In North Gorontalo, Karin Safitri

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

This study analyzes the role of economic institutional cooperation in strengthening food security through the development of laying hen farming in North Gorontalo Regency. Eggs are positioned as a strategic animal food due to their nutrient density and affordability for households, while also being relevant to the agenda of improving nutritional status through government programs. This study examines how the synergy of village and community institutions (e.g., Village-Owned Enterprises, cooperatives, and livestock groups) with regional livestock empowerment programs (e.g., the 2 Goats 10 Chickens/G2-10 Movement) and the national Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program can strengthen production capacity, expand the farmer …

The Impact Of Premium Income And Claim Expenses On Property Insurance Underwriting Results, Debrina Vita Ferezagia, Marta Yuniar, Finisha S. Hardanto

Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis Terapan

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study is to examine the influence of premium income and claim expenses on the underwriting outcomes of property insurance. Property insurance is a form of insurance that provides protection for property against potential hazards, including fire, theft, and damage caused by natural catastrophes. The data were analyzed utilizing IBM SPSS Statistics 25. The data indicates that both premium income and claim expenses have a substantial influence on underwriting results. However, it is important to note that only premium income has a substantial influence on underwriting performance, accounting for an effective contribution of 83.3%. The coefficient …

For Whom Do Labels Work? Heterogeneous Effects Of Popularity And Environmental Information In Coffee Choice, Dede Long, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Hongxing Liu

ESI Publications

We examine the impact of two common food labels on consumers’ choices: environmental certification and popularity cues. In a randomized experiment, participants chose between two similar coffee products, with treatments varying the presence of environmental and/or popularity information. We also collected measures of conformity preferences, environmental concern, political identity, and demographics. At the aggregate level, the environmental and combined labels significantly increased the selection of the target coffee, whereas popularity information alone had no effect. These averages conceal substantial heterogeneity: high-conformity participants responded to all labels, especially popularity cues, while those with domain-specific environmental concerns responded only to environmental and …

Board Attributes, Firm Performance, And The Moderating Role Of National Culture: A Meta-Analysis, Matthew Farrell, Chris H. Willis, Nathapon Siangchokyoo, Ryan L. Klinger, Jamil Kreugel, Hami Usta, Timiry R. Tian, Ying Thaviphoke, Samuel Wilson

Management Faculty Publications

Research Question/Issue

The impact of board structures on firm performance remains a contentious governance topic with competing theoretical paradigms and inconclusive empirical support. Scholars propose that national culture could reconcile contradictory evidence; yet, argumentation is fragmented and direct tests are rare. We meta‐analyzed 513 samples across 54 countries to examine relationships between board structures (i.e., board size, board independence, and CEO duality) and firm performance. We model national culture, using Hofstede's six cultural dimensions, as moderators to test whether these relationships align with agency or stewardship theory across different cultural settings.

Research findings/insights

Findings indicate a substantial moderating role of …

The Economics Of Accountability: Learning From German Holocaust Reparations, Grace I. Gates

Scripps Senior Theses

Drawing on microdata from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe, this study compares European Holocaust survivors who received reparations with similar Europeans who did not. It finds that, decades on, recipients are not systematically better or worse off on core outcomes like life satisfaction, savings, and debt. This is consistent with the argument that reparations restore parity rather than create new advantages. Where differences emerge, they point to stabilization in more vulnerable settings (e.g., lower likelihood of high debt in parts of Eastern Europe). The main takeaway from effective reparations is applicable to the United States debate: …

The Impact Of Student Achievement On Economic Growth: A Pisa-Based Analysis Of Gdp Per Capita, Emma Rose Nasr

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This study investigates the extent to which international student achievement, measured through PISA assessments in mathematics, reading, and science, explains cross-country differences in economic development. Using an unbalanced panel data set combining PISA results from 2015, 2018, and 2022 with macroeconomic indicators from the World Development Indicators, I estimate multiple regression models, including pooled OLS, country and time fixed effects, and subsample analyses for developed and developing countries. Results from the pooled model indicate strong positive associations between PISA scores and GDP per capita, consistent with human capital theory. However, these relationships diminish under fixed effects specifications, suggesting that cross-country …

Forecasting The Unpredictable: The Bullwhip Effect In The Toy Industry, Mannat Sethi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy …

The Economics Of The U.S. Student Loan Market And The Case For The Education Development Financial Institution, Ian Akers

CMC Senior Theses

The United States student loan market is shaped by a variety of market failures–credit constraints, positive externalities, behavioral frictions including myopia, debt aversion, and misperception–that together justify government intervention in the market. Yet the design of federal intervention is just as important as its existence. This thesis details the economic theory underpinning the market for student loans, evaluates three historical federal student loan programs (the Perkins Loan Program, the Federal Family Education Loan Program, and the Federal Direct Loan Program) through the lens of that theory. The thesis then proposes a novel institutional model as a targeted response to the …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

All Games Have Equilibria, M. Ali Khan, Arthur Paul Pedersen, Maxwell B. Stinchcombe

Publications and Research

Research on Nash equilibrium existence for infinite games has grown into a patchwork of technical preconditions and counterexamples. This paper presents a unified program in equilibrium theory by revising the predominant model of mixed strategies based on countable additivity. A game is specified by a nonempty set of players and, for each player, a nonempty action set and a bounded von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Every such game is shown to admit a Nash equilibrium in finitely additive mixed strategies. In addition, the equilibrium correspondence for any such game is shown to be nonempty, compact-valued, and upper hemicontinuous, and the same …