Economic Theory Commons^™

Microeconomic Analysis Of Socio-Economic Determinants Of Primary School Dropouts In Tanzania: The Case Of Rombo District, Monica Sebastian Kauky

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

Based on Professor Maghimbi’s ideas about the expansion of education in the country, this study analyses socio-economic determinants of primary school dropouts in Tanzania. The article employs both qualitative and quantitative design using primary data (cross-section), and the population of interest were children who had dropped out of school, and their parents/heads of the households. A simple logistic regression model was employed for analysis. The study uses the data gathered through semi structured interviews, in-depth interviews, questionnaires and direct observation of phenomena. The results found that the gender of the head of the household, the highest education attained by other …

Game-Theoretic Foundations Of Monetary Equilibrium, Gabriele Camera, Alessandro Gioffré

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

According to theory, money supports trade in a world without enforcement and, in particular, in large societies, where gift-exchange is unsustainable. It is demonstrated that, in fact, monetary equilibrium breaks down in the absence of adequate enforcement institutions and it collapses as societies that lack external enforcement grow large. This unique result is derived by unveiling the existence of a tacit enforcement assumption in the literature that explains the advantages from monetary exchange, and by integrating monetary theory with the theory of repeated games and social norms.

A Theory Of Aggregate Consumption, Yun K. Kim, Mark Setterfield, Yuan Mei

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a Keynesian model of aggregate consumption. Our theory emphasizes the importance of the relative income hypothesis and debt finance for understanding household consumption behavior. It is shown that particular importance attaches to how net debtor households service their debts, and that the treatment of debt-servicing commitments as a substitute for savings by these households creates the potential for 'sudden stops' in consumption spending (and hence aggregate demand).

Understanding The Distributional Impact Of Long-Run Inflation, Gabriele Camera, Yili Chen

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

The impact of fully anticipated inflation is systematically studied in heterogeneous agent economies with an endogenous labor supply and portfolio choices. In stationary equilibrium, inflation nonlinearly alters the endogenous distributions of income, wealth, and consumption. Small departures from zero inflation have the strongest impact. Three features determine how inflation impacts distributions and welfare: financial structure, shock persistence, and labor supply elasticity. When agents can self-insure only with money, inflation reduces wealth inequality but may raise consumption inequality. Otherwise, inflation reduces consumption inequality but may raise wealth inequality. Given persistent shocks and an inelastic labor supply, inflation may raise average welfare. …

The Coordination Value Of Monetary Exchange: Experimental Evidence, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

What institutions can sustain cooperation in groups of strangers? Here we study the role of monetary systems. In an experiment, subjects sometimes needed help and sometimes could incur a cost to help an anonymous counterpart. In the absence of money, the intertemporal exchange of help, which could be supported by a norm of community punishment of defectors, did not emerge. Introducing intrinsically worthless tokens substantially altered patterns of behavior. Monetary trade emerged, which increased predictability of play and promoted cooperation when strangers could trade help for a token.

Food Imports Under Foreign Exchange Constraints In The Cfa’S Franc Zone Of Sub-Saharan Africa (Ssa), Seydina Ousmane Sene

Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics

To respond to the high imported food prices in their domestic markets, net food importing countries in the Communauté Financière Africaine (CFA) zone^[1] are adjusting their import tariffs and homologate domestic prices of imported commodities such as rice, wheat, maize, and sugar. This research uses a multivariate specification of error correction model (VECM) of estimation to investigate the link between food imports, world price index of rice, wheat, maize and sugar, real effective exchange rates, domestic food production, GDP, and trade openness in the short and long run. The data are on each homogenous commodity from 1969 to 2012. …

More Eigenvalue Math Notes, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Folder Cover Label
  Shaikh, A. (2014). NA-24-07. Department of Economics, New School for Social Research.This item is a folder cover label that marks research materials on economic matrix calculations.
• Handwritten Research Notes
  Shaikh, A. (2014). Price variations and classical price setting. Department of Economics, New School for Social Research.This item contains handwritten notes evaluating price variation and classical price setting based on the theories of David Ricardo, Karl Marx, and Piero Sraffa.
• Flight Booking Confirmation
  British Airways. (2014). London to Naples flight confirmation. British Airways.This item is a travel itinerary sheet detailing a flight …

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Inflation Targeting And Growth: The Role Of The Tradable Sector, Luis Monroy Gómez Franco

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper provides an analytical explanation to the empirical association between monetary policy conducted according to the inflation targeting (IT) framework and the appreciation of the exchange rate, relating it to the literature on the effects of the exchange rate on growth. A two sector small open economy model is developed in which the behavior of the non tradable inflation and the nominal exchange rate are analyzed. The results indicate that the response to inflation variance under the IT regime causes the appreciation trend. Since this trend is not reversed immediately, increasing returns in the tradable sector affect capital accumulation.

Loose Notes, Articles, Newspapers, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Wassener, B., Bradsher, K., & Reuters. (2012). Trade data confirms economic slowdown in China (and other articles). The New York Times, September 11, 2012. The New York Times Company.
• Campbell, I. (2011). The limitations on central banks (and other articles). The New York Times, August 15, 2011. The New York Times Company.
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). The arc of modern macroeconomics (Unpublished manuscript notes).
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Kalecki and monopoly power theory (Unpublished manuscript notes).
• Shaikh, A. (2013). Bellafiore on Sweezy and Mattick (Unpublished manuscript notes).
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Kaleckian distribution and trade balance dynamics (Unpublished …

Macro General Notes I, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Surowiecki, J. (2013). Stockmania. The New Yorker, 38. Condé Nast. (22-13_Macr... p. 2)
• Shaikh, A. (2008). Wray on government finance (Unpublished manuscript notes). (22-13_Macr... p. 3)
• Shaikh, A. (2012). Firms collectively decide to raise investment (Unpublished manuscript notes). (22-13_Macr... p. 4)
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Government bond finance and consumer sacrifice (Unpublished manuscript notes). (22-13_Macr... p. 5)
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Mathematical formulations on prices and wages (Unpublished manuscript notes). (22-13_Macr... p. 6)
• Davis, J. (2011). The crypto-currency: Bitcoin and its mysterious inventor. The New Yorker, 62–70. Condé Nast. (22-13_Macr... p. 7)
• Lohr, S. (2011). More jobs …

Commodity Prices (Chapter 10), Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Ch 10 commodity prices / industrial prices (Unpublished manuscript notes) (p. 1).
• Shaikh, A. (2011, January 11). Fixcapesample.xmcd (Unpublished manuscript notes) (p. 2).
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Production function notes.docx (Unpublished manuscript notes) (p. 4).
• Shaikh, A. (2010, August 28). Petri reswitching.xmcd (Unpublished manuscript notes) (p. 22).
• Shaikh, A. (2013, November 24). Price and value aggregates (Unpublished manuscript notes) (p. 26).
• Shaikh, A. (2009, January 6). Three lines of inquiry w/r linear std prices (Unpublished manuscript notes) (p. 27).
• Shaikh, A. (2010, January 20). Subdominant eigenvalues of a (Unpublished manuscript notes) (p. 28).
• Shaikh, A. …

Eminent Economist Galleys, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2013). Order in and through disorder: the invisible hand as a turbulent regulator (Unpublished manuscript) (p. 2).
• Shaikh, A. (2013). No question market (Handwritten note) (p. 2).
• Shaikh, A. (2013). Up (Handwritten note) (p. 4).
• Shaikh, A. (2013). S(?) (Handwritten note) (p. 5).
• Shaikh, A. (2013). And more recently of rob johnson and the institute for new economic thinking (inet) (Handwritten note) (p. 7).
• Shaikh, A. (2013). Le (Handwritten note) (p. 9).
• Shaikh, A. (2013). E (Handwritten note) (p. 9).
• Becker, G. S. (1962). Irrational behavior and economic theory. Journal of Political Economy, …

[Sabbatical Report], Youn Kim

Sabbatical Reports

I commenced the research as proposed in my application in collaboration with Keith McLaren of Monash University, Australia and Gary Wong of the University of Macau, China. I had worked with them on a related project which will be published in a journal this year. The new project is titled "Consumer Demand, Consumption, and Asset Pricing: An Integrated Analysis."

The Effects Of Political Institutions On Public Budgeting, Andrew Burnos

Political Science Theses and Capstones

Economics around the globe has been a growing issue of late due to the current economic crisis. This study focuses on political institutional factors that influence spending in a particular country. The variables used in this study include Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Tax Revenue as Percent of GDP, and current account balance to name a few. This research looks at the relationship between proportional representation compared to majoritarian systems as well as presidential compared to parliamentary systems and how these relate to public budgeting. This research updates the analysis of Persson and Tabellini in their book The Economic Effects of …

An Attempt To Reshape Capitalism’S Image, Ross A. Nichols

Gettysburg Economic Review

John Stuart Mill claimed to be a disciple of both Jeremy Bentham and David Ricardo. This was a strange proclamation because each man advocated a competing theory of value; Bentham’s utilitarianism laid the foundation for the utility theory of value and Ricardo developed the labor theory of value. Mill’s goal in attempting to unify these theories of value was to provide a solution for the growing class conflict that plagued capitalism. Class conflict arose as feudalism was phased out and industrial capitalism replaced merchant capitalism as the dominant economic system. The Corn Laws symbolized this competition between classes. Capitalists were …

Comment, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Ex Ante Stock Flow Accounts, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2012). Part III: Comments on Argentina (Unpublished manuscript notes).
• Shaikh, A. (2010). Chapter 11: Ex ante stock/flow accounts (Unpublished manuscript).

My Macro Notes, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2010). Keynes notes on Tsoulfidis 2010 (Unpublished manuscript) (p. 2).
• Shaikh, A. (2012). Thessaloniki effective demand state (Unpublished manuscript) (p. 3).
• Ewing, J., & Kanter, J. (2012). EU officials take steps toward centralized banking regulation. International Herald Tribune, p. 16 (p. 3).
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Q Lina, unprecedented S/Y (Handwritten notes) (p. 6).
• Ahiakpor, J. C. W. (1995). No paradox of thrift in classical accumulation. Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 17(1), 16–33. Cambridge University Press (p. 7).
• Leijonhufvud, A. (1981). Information and coordination: Essays in macroeconomic theory. Oxford University …

Inet Grant Cycle Ii, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes the contents of an unpublished file:

• Inaugural grant cycle ii folder notes by Anwar Shaikh 
• Office of Institutional Giving grant proposal form by Anwar Shaikh 
• Grants application form spring 2011 by Anwar Shaikh 
• Update on your grant application from INET by Institute for New Economic Thinking 
• Email correspondence regarding confirmation of grant resubmission by Anwar Shaikh and Nicholas Alpha 
• Email correspondence regarding grant proposal submission and travel updates by Nicholas Alpha and Anwar Shaikh 
• Submission form checklist handwritten notes by Anwar Shaikh 

Inet Report No. 1,2, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2011, April). Project budget: "Turbulent dynamics and hidden patterns" (A stage II submission to INET) (Manuscript) (23-46_INET... p. 2). New School University Archives.
• Barletta, F. (2012, September 1). The New School financial report (Final) for "Book on turbulent dynamics in advanced economics" (Manuscript) (23-46_INET... p. 3). New School University Archives.
• New School University. (2012, August). Oracle financial system ledger for grant C00000472 (Turbulent dynamics in advanced econ) (Manuscript screen capture with handwritten note by Anwar Shaikh, PhD) (23-46_INET... p. 4). New School University Archives.
• King, R. (2012, July 10). Email correspondence regarding proposal from The …

Foley Festschift, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Foley, D. K. (Honoree). (2012, April 20–21). Schedule for the symposium in honor of Duncan K. Foley [Unpublished symposium program manuscript].

• Shaikh, A. (2012, April 20–21). Handwritten notes from the symposium in honor of Duncan K. Foley [Unpublished handwritten notes]. Symposium in honor of Duncan K. Foley.

• Shaikh, A. (2012, April 20). Production, circuits of capital, and flows and stocks in national accounts [Unpublished manuscript].

• Shaikh, A. (2011, February 21). Production, circuits of capital, and flows and stocks in national accounts [Unpublished manuscript].

Apf, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Production function notes.docx by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Parable and realism in capital theory: The surrogate production function by Paul A. Samuelson
• Capital theory up to date by Joan Robinson
• Beyond the surrogate prod function by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Notes on John McCombie, Stefano Zambelli, and Arrigo Opocher by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Notes on Steven Kinsella and Antoine Godin by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Patnaik two good world: Machines, corn by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• On the dismal state of a dismal science? by Heinz D. Kurz
• Economics: Principles and policy by William J. Baumol and Alan S. Blinder
• Empirical …