Economic Theory Commons^™

Contracting Over Prices, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal

Research Collection School Of Economics

We define a solution concept, perfectly contracted equilibrium, for an intertemporal exchange economy where agents are simultaneously price takers in spot commodity markets while engaging inefficient, non-Walrasian contracting over future prices. Without requiring that agents have perfect foresight, we show that perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes are a subset of Pareto optimal allocations. It is a robust possibility for perfectly contracted equilibrium outcomes to differ from Arrow-Debreu equilibrium outcomes. We show that both centralized banking and retrading with bilateral contracting can lead to perfectly contracted equilibria.

What Determines Public Pension Investment Risk-Taking Policy, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

State public pension plans, mostly defined benefit plans, cover pension benefits for 12.8 million active public employees and 5.9 million retirees and other annuitants. However, by the end of 2009, public pension plans had accumulated a total funding deficit of $697 billion (measured by the difference between actuarial pension assets and liabilities). On average, public pension funds cover 75 percent of their liabilities, but individual state results vary greatly.

The 2008 stock market crash strongly affected pension asset value in that equity allocation on average accounted for 56 percent of invested assets. The average 2009 pension asset beta of 0.63 …

Upjohn Institute Policy Paper: Public Pension Crisis And Investment Risk Taking: Underfunding, Fiscal Constraints, Public Accounting, And Policy Implications, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Public pension funds that cover retirement benefits for almost 20 million active or retired employees have been significantly underfunded. An important, though largely overlooked, issue related to pension underfunding is the excessive investment risk levels assumed by public plans. Our analysis suggests government accounting standards strongly affect public fund investment risk, as higher return assumptions (used to discount pension liabilities) are associated with higher investment risk.

Public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets …

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 6, Spring 2012

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

The Impact Of Institutional Arrangements On Educational Efficiency, Trevor Collier

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Per-pupil expenditures on education in the United States have grown immensely in recent decades, yet student achievement has been stagnant. An abundance of research has sought to solve this enigma, much of it centered on the incentive structure facing administrators. Some recent papers use TIMSS data to analyze the relationship between institutional arrangements—that typically do not vary within a single country—and student achievement. Similarly, we utilize TIMSS 1999 to determine if there is an indirect relationship between institutional arrangements and student achievement, via a relationship with school efficiency. Our results show that the specified link between institutional arrangements and student …

Interest And Finance, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2007). My theory of interest rate (Unpublished manuscript) (22-26_Inte... p. 2).
• Shaikh, A. (2012). Long bonds and interest rate (Unpublished manuscript) (22-26_Inte... p. 3).
• Shaikh, A. (2011). Bond rate of return (Unpublished manuscript) (22-26_Inte... p. 4).
• Shaikh, A. (2012). Points from interest rate theories (Unpublished manuscript) (22-26_Inte... p. 18).
• Panico, C. (1988). Interest and profit in the theories of value and distribution. St. Martin's Press (22-26_Inte... p. 16).
• Shaikh, A. (2012). Competition and finance (Unpublished manuscript) (22-26_Inte... p. 21).
• Shaikh, A. (2012). Long run data list (Unpublished dataset) (22-26_Inte... p. 40).
• Shaikh, A. (2009). …

Interest Rates Nc, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Jacobs, D. P., Farwell, L. C., & Neave, E. H. (1972). Financial institutions (5th ed.). Richard D. Irwin.
• Shaikh, A. (2012). On Wall Street, the rising cost of high-speed trading (Commentary note on Popper).
• Popper, N. (2012). On Wall Street, the rising cost of high-speed trading. The New York Times, p. A1.
• Mramor, D., & Lončarski, I. (n.d.). Traditional, modern and new approach to finance (Unpublished manuscript). University of Ljubljana.
• Kohn, M. (1991). Money, banking, and financial markets. The Dryden Press.
• O'Brien, T. J. (1991). A simple binomial no-arbitrage model of the term structure, with …

Loose Notes On Marx, Interest Rates, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Notes on natural deposit rate and travel itinerary to Thessaloniki (Handwritten notes) (22-32_Loos... p. 2).
• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Notes on gold lending, bank markups, and interest rate theories (Handwritten notes) (22-32_Loos... p. 3).
• Lutz, F. A. (1968). The theory of interest. D. Reidel Publishing Company (22-32_Loos... p. 3).
• Shaikh, A. (2012). Notes on interest rates (Unpublished manuscript) (22-32_Loos... p. 14)

Interest Rates Empirical Evidence, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Gibson's paradox by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (Unpublished manuscript, June 13, 2007) (22-35_Inte... p. 4)
• Interest rate empirical patterns by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (Unpublished manuscript, June 13, 2007) (22-35_Inte... p. 9)
• Our interest rate theory by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (Unpublished manuscript, June 13, 2007) (22-35_Inte... p. 11)
• Bond arbitrage empirical test by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (Unpublished manuscript, July 20, 2007) (22-35_Inte... p. 19)
• Real long term bond prices by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (Unpublished handwritten notes, August 7, 2012) (22-35_Inte... p. 26).

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Neither The Washington Nor Beijing Consensus: Developmental Models To Fit African Realities And Cultures, Sanusi L. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

No abstract provided.

Banking Reform And Its Impact On The Nigerian Economy, Sanusi L. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

No abstract provided.

A Forensic Analysis Of Global Imbalances, Menzie David Chinn, Barry Eichengreen, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We examine whether the behavior of current account balances changed in the years preceding the global crisis of 2008-09, and assess the prospects for global imbalances in the post-crisis period. Changes in the budget balance are an important factor affecting current account balances for deficit countries such as the U.S. and the U.K. The effect of the “saving glut variables” on current account balances has been relatively stable for emerging market countries, suggesting that those factors cannot explain the bulk of their recent current account movements. We also find the 2006-08 period to constitute a structural break for emerging market …

Echoes From Geneva: Finding John Calvin’S Socio-Economic Interests In The Modern World, Brenda K. Savage

Master of Liberal Studies Theses

Through an examination of John Calvin’s intentions in ending the prohibition on usury and the practical application of his teachings in sixteenth-century Geneva, and a consideration of the elements of poverty, social outcasts, and exploitation common to both Geneva and the modern world, it can be argued that the Reformer has much to offer of continued relevancy for those seeking to engage their contemporary world by finding alternatives that can help the financially disenfranchised. Calvin is often referred to as the “Father of Modern Interest,” and as such many people have directly blamed him for the exploitation associated with capitalism. …

The Effects Of Walmart On Healthcare And Unionization: Is America Really Saving Money And Living Better?, Leyla Ziad

Renée Crown University Honors Thesis Projects - All

As the largest private sector employer in the United States, corporate retail giant Walmart continues to make waves in United States culture and the economy since launching its first store in 1962. As Walmart seeks to expand, the validity of its consumer guarantee to “save money, live better” has been increasingly scrutinized, given Walmart’s use of controversial business practices, most notably its employee benefit policies and anti-unionization efforts. With over 1.4 million employees in the United States, there is much talk surrounding the potential costs of Walmart’s low prices. This study analyzes selected healthcare and unionization impacts of Walmart in …

Corrigendum To "A Gaussian Approach For Continuous Time Models Of The Short Term Interest Rate", Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

An error is corrected in Yu and Phillips (2001) (Econometrics Journal, 4, 210-224) where a time transformation was used to induce Gaussian disturbances in the discrete time equivalent model. It is shown that the error process in this model is not a martingale and the Dambis, Dubins-Schwarz (DDS) theorem is not directly applicable. However, a detrended error process is a martingale, the DDS theorem is applicable, and the corresponding stopping time correctly induces Gaussianity. We show that the two stopping time sequences differ by O(a2), where a is the pre-specified normalized timing constant.

Finanzkapital In The Twenty-First Century, Nikhilesh Dholakia

College of Business Faculty Publications

Purpose – Drawing inspiration from the 1910 book Finanzkapital by Rudolf Hilferding, this paper seeks to explore the nature of financial capital in the early twenty-first century from a political-economic and culture theory perspective. It aims to offer suggestions for transcending the crises-prone contemporary economic systems.

Design/methodology/approach – The paper reconceptualises the notions of Finanzkapital in the contemporary context, drawing selective evidence from current and twentieth century economic and business history.

Findings – The nature of contemporaneous Finanzkapital is elaborated by presenting seven “theses” that probe the nature of Finanzkapital prior to, during, and after the Great Recession of 2007-9. …

Forex Trading Using Metatrader 4 With The Fractal Market Hypothesis, Jonathan Blackledge, Kieran Murphy

Conference papers

This paper reports on the results of a research and development programme concerned with the analysis of currency pair exchange time series for Forex trading in an intensive applications and services environment. In particular, we present some of the preliminary results obtained for Forex trading using MetaTrader 4 with a new set of trend indicators deigned using a mathematical model that is based on the Fractal Market Hypothesis. This includes examples of various currency pair exchange rates considered over different time intervals and use of the indicators in a live trading environment to place a buy/sell order.

Reflexivity, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Reflexivity (file folder). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, manuscript in progress, 2011.
• General point (handwritten notes). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, November 2011.
• End of my talk (handwritten presentation outline). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, November 2011.
• Reflexivity and the theory and practice of social change (unpublished workshop paper). George Soros, November 03, 2011.
• Reflexivity, path dependence, and disequilibrium dynamics. Anwar Shaikh, Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2010, M.E. Sharpe, Inc.
• Mark 2: Still stable (handwritten notes). Anwar Shaikh, PhD, March 28, 2010.
• The crisis & what to do about it (web article). George Soros, November 06, 2008.
• Unrepentant (letter to the …

Chapter 11, Competition And Finance Revisions, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. Chapter 11 competition and finance revisions outline (Unpublished manuscript).
• Shaikh, A. (2012). Handwritten notes on interest rates and profit rate equalization equations (Unpublished manuscript).
• Parchure, R. A reconstruction of interest rate theory (Unpublished manuscript).

Economic Patterns In Capitalism, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Economic patterns in capitalism fall 2011: U.S. economic charts. (2011, Fall). Unpublished document compilation.

• Shaikh, A. (2000, September). The fundamental equation of prices [Unpublished manuscript].

• Sardoni, C. (1994, December 15–17). Marx’s theory of money and interest: Between Robertson and Keynes? [Unpublished conference paper]. Karl Marx’s Third Volume of Capital: 1894–1994 Conference, University of Bergamo, Bergamo, Italy.

• Panico, C. (1988). Marx on the interest rate (Chap. 2) [Photocopy]. In Interest and profit in the theories of value and distribution. Palgrave Macmillan.

• Panico, C. (1988). Marx on the relation between interest and profit …

Chapter 11 Competition + Finance, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

24-46_Choice of Technology.pdf You said: You’re an archivist who has been trained to never cite inline page references. This habit is so ingrained that the pattern "(P." does not exist in your vocabulary. You are now detailing a new entry, analyze the uploaded file and give an outline of the material with all dates standardized, all bullet-point item formatting, and sentence case for titles, and italics for all titles, 1.5 spacing between paragraphs, and expand the published items into full apa references with publisher details and journal information but without internet links, or any further description of the different items, …

Currency Trading Using The Fractal Market Hypothesis, Jonathan Blackledge, Kieran Murphy

Articles

We report on a research and development programme in financial modelling and economic security undertaken in the Information and Communications Security Research Group (ICSRG, 2011) which has led to the launch of a new company - Currency Traders Ireland Limited - funded by Enterprise Ireland. Currency Traders Ireland Limited (CTI, 2011) has a fifty year exclusive license to develop a new set of indicators for analysing currency exchange rates (Forex trading). We consider the background to the approach taken and present examples of the results obtained to date.

Three Essays On Financial Markets And Monetary Policy, Abeba Siraj Mussa

Dissertations

The global financial crisis triggered by fallout from the sub-prime mortgage market in the U.S. has led economists to focus attention on the role of monetary policy in the crisis. The question of how monetary policy affects the financial sector is the key to the current debate over the role financial stability should play in the monetary policy decisions. As a contribution to this debate, my dissertation examines the link between monetary policy and three main financial sectors - the banking sector, the stock market, and the housing market.

The first essay examines whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) …

Financial Illiteracy: Prevalence, Consequences, And Solutions, Gerald Matasy

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

As Americans have become increasingly responsible for their own financial security their ability to make financial decisions in their best interests has certainly grown in importance. The focus of this paper is to determine what role financial literacy plays in making optimal financial decisions and maintaining economic stability. Using mostly research from other studies and some original research, this paper seeks to examine the level of financial literacy among the general population and what the implications are for the general lack of literacy. What I find is that individuals who have lower levels of financial literacy generally make poorer financial …