Economic History Commons^™

An Analysis Of Risk-Taking Behavior For Public Defined Benefit Pension Plans, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Nancy Mohan

This paper presents the first comprehensive study on the determinants of public pension fund investment risk and reports several new important findings. Unlike private pension plans, public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in the previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets to equity and have higher betas. There also appears to be a herding effect in that CalPERS equity allocation or beta is mimicked by other pension funds. Finally, our results suggest that government accounting standards strongly affect pension fund …

The Integrity Of Financial Analysts: Evidence From Asymmetric Responses To Earnings Surprises, Rui Lu, Wenxuan Hou, Henry Oppenheimer, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the integrity of financial analysts by examining their recommendation responses to large quarterly earnings surprises. Although there is no significant difference in recommendation changes between affiliated and unaffiliated analysts in response to positive earnings surprises, affiliated analysts are more reluctant than unaffiliated analysts to downgrade stock recommendations in response to negative earnings surprises. The evidence implies that conflicts of interest undermine the integrity of financial analysts. We further examine the effects of reputation concern and the Global Research Analyst Settlement as informal and formal mechanisms, on restoring analysts’ integrity. The results show that the positive bias in …

The Investment Casualties Of War: Global Impacts Of Armed Conflict On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, Reinhard J. Cate Mr.

Master's Theses

Abstract: Involvement in the outbreak of an armed conflict can present a variety of potential risks to an involved nation’s economy. In this paper I examine if one one of those risks, specifically that a new war could scare away foreign investment actually occurs and whether the intensity of the conflict increases or lessens the potential impact. Using ordinary least squares on panel data from 1966 to 2015, I examine the short and long term impacts of armed conflict on global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows using two measures of conflict intensity: Large conflicts or ‘wars’, with 1000 or more …

Aggression In Mixed Martial Arts: An Analysis Of The Likelihood Of Winning A Decision, Trevor Collier, Andrew Johnson, John Ruggiero

Trevor Collier

Within the last decade, mixed martial arts has become one of the most popular sports worldwide. The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is the largest and most successful organization within the industry. In the USA, however, the sport is not sanctioned in all states because some politicians view the sport as too violent. The sport consists of many fighting forms and, unlike boxing, winning a decision requires judging in multiple facets including wrestling, boxing, kickboxing, and jiu-jitsu. In this study, we estimate the likelihood of winning a decision in the UFC. Using data on individual fights, we estimate the probability of …

Measuring Technical Efficiency In Sports, Trevor Collier, Andrew Johnson, John Ruggiero

Trevor Collier

Standard economic production theory is the basis for measuring technical efficiency in sports. Using programming or regression models, efficiency is defined as the distance of a given team observation from the technology. In this article, the authors show that the standard measures of efficiency using deterministic models are biased downward due to serial correlation with respect to the efficiency measure. In particular, if the number of observed wins for a given team is affected by the team’s inefficiency, it is necessarily true that another team is able to produce outside of the technology. As a result, the observed frontier is …

The Impact Of Institutional Arrangements On Educational Efficiency, Trevor Collier

Trevor Collier

Per-pupil expenditures on education in the United States have grown immensely in recent decades, yet student achievement has been stagnant. An abundance of research has sought to solve this enigma, much of it centered on the incentive structure facing administrators. Some recent papers use TIMSS data to analyze the relationship between institutional arrangements—that typically do not vary within a single country—and student achievement. Similarly, we utilize TIMSS 1999 to determine if there is an indirect relationship between institutional arrangements and student achievement, via a relationship with school efficiency. Our results show that the specified link between institutional arrangements and student …

Teacher Qualifications And Student Achievement: A Panel Data Of Analysis, Trevor Collier

Trevor Collier

Recent academic research suggests that teacher quality plays an important role in student achievement: however, empirical research on the efficacy of policies requiring teachers to obtain certain degrees is inconclusive, particularly in elementary education. This paper models a panel data production function with fixed effects using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS-K) to asses the relationship between different undergraduate and graduate majors and elementary student test scores. Specifcally, we aim to discern if there is a difference in teacher efficacy within the different education related majors (e.g. early childhood education and elementary education) and between education and non-education related majors.

Estimation Of Multi-Output Production Functions In Commercial Fisheries, Trevor Collier, Andrew Mamula, John Ruggiero

Trevor Collier

Measuring the productivity of vessels in a multi-species fishery can be problematic. Typical regression techniques are not capable of handling multiple outputs while Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) tends to ignore the stochastic nature of production. Applied economists have devoted considerable time to this problem and have developed several methods of dealing with the issue of multiple output technologies in commercial fisheries. Our paper contributes to this literature by providing another method for estimating production functions of vessels operating in multi-species fisheries. We utilize a two-stage model – with data from the West Coast Limited Entry Groundfish Trawl Fishery – using …

Tobin, James, Tony Caporale

Tony Caporale

James Tobin was born in Champaign, Illinois, in 1918. He received his bachelor's degree in 1939 and his master's degree in 1940, both from Harvard. Following naval service during the years 1942-6, he returned to his graduate studies and received his PhD from Harvard in 1947. In 1950, he joined the economics department at Yale University, and he has largely remained at Yale and has been identified with this institution throughout his career. He twice directed the Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, first from 1955 to 1961, and then from 1964 to 1965. He also served for two years, …

The Relationship Between Output Variability And Growth: Evidence From Post War U.K. Data, Tony Caporale, Barbara Mckiernan

Tony Caporale

The paper investigates the relationship between output variability and economic growth using a GARCH-M model with industrial production in post-war Great Britain. The data reveals a positive relationship between variability and growth rates.

Indonesia’S Palm Oil Expansion & Further Contribution To Economic Fragility, Kathryn Devon Dixon

Senior Projects Spring 2016

Indonesia's growing dependence on the expansion of palm oil plantations as one of their prime exports has lead to the creation of many externalities both environmental and social, which has furthered their financial fragility. Since the Asian Economic Crisis, Indonesia has seemingly been growing substantially, but recent occurrences show that Indonesia may have more fragility than known.

Making A Killing: A Study Of The Trade And Production Of Arms, Jonas D. Kempf

Senior Projects Spring 2016

This thesis attempts to put arms transfers and the modern defense industry in historical context by identifying the drivers of change in the trade and production of arms over time. To this end, a review of the literature on the arms trade up to the Second World War comprises the first part of the study, presenting a largely qualitative overview of shifts in the flow of arms, the location of the world’s arms-producing centers, and changes in attitudes towards transfers as they have affected the trade. The second half of the study provides a data-driven analysis of trends in the …

Economic Wealth And Social Welfare: A Longitudinal Analysis Of Transnational Well-Being, Kelly Brooke Martin

Doctoral Dissertations

Macro changes in the financial arena have prompted ongoing research focused on global economic trends. As America emerges from an era of stagnant wages, rising unemployment, and growing class stratification it is necessary to explore differences in cross-national socioeconomic behavior to address the changing needs of our country. Many studies attempt to describe statistical correlations between economic wealth and social well-being domestically and abroad by utilizing methodological perspectives that do not account for longitudinal change. To address the gap in existing research, this study seeks to measure variations in econometric indicators between the U.S. and Nordic countries to further explicate …

Planet Of The Celtic Tiger, Alexid Wai Kit Lam

Honors Capstone Projects - All

Due to the vast developments in technology and information sharing, developing countries now have instant access to a library full of articles documenting the growth of various developed countries in the world. As these countries are searching for an economic model and hoping to replicate its result, they often come across Ireland’s economic success during the Celtic Tiger times. During this period, Ireland transformed from the “poorest of the rich” to “one of Europe’s shining lights.” Although Ireland's economic growth seems extremely appealing, how likely is it that another country could follow Ireland’s success by adopting its economic approach?

This …

Coup D'État And International Trade, Brian Alan Childers

Chancellor’s Honors Program Projects

No abstract provided.

Benefits Of Eu Membership For The Transition Countries: The Case Of Latvia, Marko Martinovic

Economics Honors Projects

This paper estimates the benefits of EU membership for Latvia, a former communist country and a member of the former USSR. It is widely believed that the EU membership significantly contributes to raising living standards and growth of the economies of new members. Using counterfactual analysis with the official date of accession of 2003 I find that Latvia demonstrates stronger economic growth from the EU membership, but only up to 2009. After the 2009 financial crisis Latvia’s economic growth is severally compromised as a consequence of joining the EU. When 1999 is treated as the treatment year, the year when …

What Is The 'Economic Value' Of Learning English In Spain?, Molly M. Robbins

Scripps Senior Theses

This paper uses historical and economic references to evaluate the economic value of learning English in Spain. Seeing that English is the lingua franca in politics, business, and technology, it is a necessary skill for Spanish citizens to possess in order to efficiently interact in foreign relations of all kinds. Due to Franco’s harsh language policies, and Spain’s ineffective education system, Spain has lacked the same linguistic exposure to foreign languages—especially English—than the rest of Europe. By referencing the previous literature written about the relationship between language and earnings, this paper seeks to find the economic incentive for Spaniards to …

It's All In The Mail: The Economic Geography Of The German Empire, Florian Ploeckl

Florian Ploeckl

The Financial Underpinnings Of The Eu Crisis: Financial Deregulation, Privatization, And Asymmetric State Power, Nina Q. Eichacker

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation asks the following questions. How has financial liberalization affected the incidence of financial crisis in Europe? How have power asymmetries within Western Europe facilitated the process of financial liberalization, and distributed the costs and gains from this liberalization? How have these dynamics been demonstrated at the state level? It charts the institutional liberalization and privatization of European finance from the 1960s onward and presents a survey of descriptive statistics that show how different financial stability, financial flow, and macroeconomic variables have changed in Western Europe since the early 1980s, generally increasing financial and economic instability. It also demonstrates …

Trade, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Scholarship and Research

Provides a historical overview of analysis of U.S. foreign trade policy during the early decades of the country's history. Examines bilateral U.S. trade relations with France and Great Britain, provides import and export statistics, details on commodities and products imports and exported, trade statistics, and information on the political and economic factors shaping U.S. trade during this period.

The Effect Of Macroeconomic Conditions On Applications To Supplemental Security Income, Ke Xu

Honors Capstone Projects - All

This study examines whether macroeconomic conditions affect applications to the Supplemental Security Income program. Specifically, we focus on the impact of unemployment rate on under age 18 applications. Using data from 2002 through 2012, we found that a higher unemployment rate is associated with an increased intention to apply for Supplemental Security Income benefits for both disabled adults and children. However, the effect is much higher for adults. These findings suggest that under age 18 applications of Supplemental Security Income is sensitive to the macroeconomic conditions.

An Analysis Of Risk-Taking Behavior For Public Defined Benefit Pension Plans, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper presents the first comprehensive study on the determinants of public pension fund investment risk and reports several new important findings. Unlike private pension plans, public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in the previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets to equity and have higher betas. There also appears to be a herding effect in that CalPERS equity allocation or beta is mimicked by other pension funds. Finally, our results suggest that government accounting standards strongly affect pension fund …

Microfoundations Of The Rule Of Law, Gillian K. Hadfield, Barry R. Weingast

Gillian K Hadfield

Many social scientists rely on the rule of law in their accounts of political or economic development. Many however simply equate law with a stable government capable of enforcing the rules generated by a political authority. As two decades of largely failed efforts to build the rule of law in poor and transition countries and continuing struggles to build international legal order demonstrate, we still do not understand how legal order is produced, especially in places where it does not already exist. We here canvas literature in the social sciences to identify the themes and gaps in the existing accounts. …

The Cobden-Chevalier Effect: Evaluating The Causal Effect Of The Most Favoured Nation Clause In Presence Of Network Interdependence, Luca De Benedictis, Silvia Nenci

Luca De Benedictis

Export Controls: A Contemporary History, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Presentations

Provides highlights of my recently published book Export Controls: A Contemporary History. Describes the roles played by multiple U.S. Government agencies and congressional oversight committees in this policymaking arena including the Commerce, Defense, State, and Treasury Departments. It also reviews the roles played by international government organizations such as the Missile Technology Control Regime, export oriented businesses, and research intensive universities.

The (Far) Backstory Of The U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement, Stephen Meardon

Economics Department Working Paper Series

In two pairs of episodes, first in 1824 and 1846 and then in 1892 and 1935, similar U.S.-Colombia trade agreements or their enabling laws were embraced first by protectionists and then by free traders. The history of the episodes supports the view that although political institutions exist to curb de facto political power, such power may be wielded to undo the institutions’ intended effects. The doctrinal affinities and interests of political actors are more decisive determinants of the free-trade or protectionist orientation of trade agreements than the agreements’ texts or legal superstructures. The long delay from signing to passage of …

On Kindleberger And Hegemony: From Berlin To M.I.T. And Back, Stephen Meardon

Economics Department Working Paper Series

The most notable idea of Charles P. Kindleberger’s later career is the value of a single country acting as stabilizer of an international economy prone to instability. It runs through his widely read books, The World in Depression, 1929-1939 (1973), Manias, Crises, and Panics (1978), A Financial History of Western Europe (1984), and kindred works. “Hegemonic stability,” the idea is called in the literature it inspired. This essay traces Kindleberger’s attachment to the idea back to his tenure as chief of the State Department’s Division of German and Austrian Economic Affairs from 1945 to 1947 and adviser to the …

Subsidies, Agricultural, Bert Chapman

Libraries Faculty and Staff Scholarship and Research

Provides historical and contemporary information on U.S. Government agricultural subsidies and how they affect agricultural policy in the Western U.S.

¿Quo Vadis Paraguay? ¿A Westfalia O Al Mercosur?, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

Las relaciones políticas y económicas entre países están estrechamente vinculadas entre sí. Para entender los cambios en la economía mundial, es necesario ahondar en los aspectos centrales de la política internacional, o en otras palabras, de las relaciones internacionales. El sistema actual de las relaciones internacionales se sustenta sobre pilares de los Tratados de Paz de Westfalia de 1648. Estos acuerdos se firmaron con el propósito de poner fin a la guerra de los treinta años, librada entre las potencias hegemónicas de la Europa del Siglo XVII. Los dos aportes más importantes de estos Tratados fueron la imposición del concepto …

Teacher Qualifications And Student Achievement: A Panel Data Of Analysis, Trevor Collier

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Recent academic research suggests that teacher quality plays an important role in student achievement: however, empirical research on the efficacy of policies requiring teachers to obtain certain degrees is inconclusive, particularly in elementary education. This paper models a panel data production function with fixed effects using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS-K) to asses the relationship between different undergraduate and graduate majors and elementary student test scores. Specifcally, we aim to discern if there is a difference in teacher efficacy within the different education related majors (e.g. early childhood education and elementary education) and between education and non-education related majors.