Economic History Commons^™

Model Specification For Bank Failure: A Retrospective Look At Banks In Missouri During The Great Depression, Peter Welch

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines banks in Missouri during the Great Depression in order to find the correct model specification for bank failure during economic downturns. The data set controls for a bank’s balance sheet, correspondent network, charters and memberships, county characteristics, and market share, and includes both Federal Reserve member and non-member banks. Using a probit model, it is concluded that the contractionary monetary policy employed by the St. Louis Federal Reserve did not help bank survival, as being a member of the Federal Reserve had no significant effect on a bank’s probability of survival. Additionally, while an increased network led …

The Effects Of The Correspondent Banking Network On The Real Economy, Jack Brown

CMC Senior Theses

There is a longstanding academic debate regarding the role of financial networks. There is a tradeoff between improving the flow of funds and acting as a channel for contagion. This paper investigates the impact of banking networks on the real economy during the Great Depression. Building permit values are used as a proxy for real economic activity as implemented in previous research. A simple linear regression model estimated by ordinary least squares is used such that locational networks are differentiated from networks links to money centers and non-money centers. The results demonstrate that financial networks have both positive and negative …

Dorothy Moser Medlin Papers - Accession 1049, Dorothy Moser Medlin

Manuscript Collection

(The Dorothy Moser Medlin Papers are currently in processing.)

This collection contains most of the records of Dorothy Medlin’s work and correspondence and also includes reference materials, notes, microfilm, photographic negatives related both to her professional and personal life. Additions include a FLES Handbook, co-authored by Dorothy Medlin and a decorative mirror belonging to Dorothy Medlin.

Major series in this collection include: some original 18th century writings and ephemera and primary source material of André Morellet, extensive collection of secondary material on André Morellet's writings and translations, Winthrop related files, literary manuscripts and notes by Dorothy Medlin (1966-2011), copies …

Essays On Inequality And Macroeconomic Stability, Thomas Hauner

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters. . .

Chapter 1: Aggregate Wealth and Its Distribution as Determinants of Financial Crises: Panel Evidence This essay investigates the relationship between wealth inequality and financial crises across a panel of nine advanced economies over the past 100 years. While substantiation of a role for income inequality is ambiguous in the literature, evidence is presented suggesting a unique capacity for the accumulation of assets to increase the likelihood of a future financial crisis episode. Testing long-run panel data with a reduced form, two-way fixed effects model, estimates suggest that increasing wealth inequality, in an …

The Real Estate And Stock Market During The Great Depression: Construction Permit Growth As A Leading Economic Indicator For Stock Returns, Will Cresap

CMC Senior Theses

The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications …

Is Silence The Answer?, Gator Adams

CMC Senior Theses

This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.

Pegxit Pressure: Evidence From The Classical Gold Standard, Kris James Mitchener, Gonçalo Pina

Economics

We develop a simple model that highlights the costs and benefits of fixed exchange rates as they relate to trade, and show that negative export-price shocks reduce fiscal revenue and increase the likelihood of an expected currency devaluation. Using a new high-frequency data set on commodity-price movements from the classical gold standard era, we then show that the model’s main prediction holds even for the canonical example of hard pegs. We identify a negative causal relationship between export-price shocks and currency-risk premia in emerging market economies, indicating that negative export-price shocks increased the probability that countries abandoned their pegs.

The Integrity Of Financial Analysts: Evidence From Asymmetric Responses To Earnings Surprises, Rui Lu, Wenxuan Hou, Henry Oppenheimer, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the integrity of financial analysts by examining their recommendation responses to large quarterly earnings surprises. Although there is no significant difference in recommendation changes between affiliated and unaffiliated analysts in response to positive earnings surprises, affiliated analysts are more reluctant than unaffiliated analysts to downgrade stock recommendations in response to negative earnings surprises. The evidence implies that conflicts of interest undermine the integrity of financial analysts. We further examine the effects of reputation concern and the Global Research Analyst Settlement as informal and formal mechanisms, on restoring analysts’ integrity. The results show that the positive bias in …

Daniel Defoe’S Literary Economies: The Shifting Role Of Narrative Uncertainty, Speculation, And Providence In Robinson Crusoe And Roxana., Terese J. Swords

Lawrence University Honors Projects

In my honors project, I analyze how Daniel Defoe’s first novel, Robinson Crusoe (1719), and his last, Roxana (1724), offer shifting economic commentary regarding England’s emerging 18^th century credit economy. This shift does not come as too much of a surprise, as his first and last novel straddle the historic moment of the South Sea Bubble’s burst. Therefore, Defoe’s works, when analyzed sequentially, capture the evolving attitude towards value and credit that was occurring throughout all of England.

In my first chapter, “Crusoe’s Post Facto Journal Editing: ‘How wonderfully we are delivered when we are aware of it,’” I …

Moral Hazard And Mispriced Systemic Risk In The Lead-Up To The 2007 Subprime Mortgage Crisis In The United States, Georgi Rusinov

Undergraduate Economic Review

The 2007 subprime crisis was caused by high demand for subprime mortgage products underpinned by the unrealistic assumption that property prices would keep rising indefinitely. The subprime mortgage market worked as expected as long as prices were rising and demand for property was high. When these two conditions were violated and the housing bubble collapsed, the system became dysfunctional, many subprime borrowers defaulted, and mortgage-backed securities lost much of their value. Prevention could have been achieved through regulatory measures to shift the risk back from taxpayers and investors to loan originators. Fair distribution of risk should be the main objective …

From Hard Money To Branch Banking California Banking In The Gold Rush Economy, Larry Schweikart, Lynne Pierson Doti

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

In Gold Rush–era California, banking and the financial sector evolved in often distinctive ways because of the Gold Rush economy. More importantly, the abundance of gold on the West Coast provided an interesting test case for some of the critical economic arguments of the day, especially for those deriving from the descending—but still powerful—positions of the “hard money” Jacksonians.

An Analysis Of Risk-Taking Behavior For Public Defined Benefit Pension Plans, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

This paper presents the first comprehensive study on the determinants of public pension fund investment risk and reports several new important findings. Unlike private pension plans, public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in the previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets to equity and have higher betas. There also appears to be a herding effect in that CalPERS equity allocation or beta is mimicked by other pension funds. Finally, our results suggest that government accounting standards strongly affect pension fund …

Teacher Qualifications And Student Achievement: A Panel Data Of Analysis, Trevor Collier

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Recent academic research suggests that teacher quality plays an important role in student achievement: however, empirical research on the efficacy of policies requiring teachers to obtain certain degrees is inconclusive, particularly in elementary education. This paper models a panel data production function with fixed effects using the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study (ECLS-K) to asses the relationship between different undergraduate and graduate majors and elementary student test scores. Specifcally, we aim to discern if there is a difference in teacher efficacy within the different education related majors (e.g. early childhood education and elementary education) and between education and non-education related majors.

What Determines Public Pension Investment Risk-Taking Policy, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

State public pension plans, mostly defined benefit plans, cover pension benefits for 12.8 million active public employees and 5.9 million retirees and other annuitants. However, by the end of 2009, public pension plans had accumulated a total funding deficit of $697 billion (measured by the difference between actuarial pension assets and liabilities). On average, public pension funds cover 75 percent of their liabilities, but individual state results vary greatly.

The 2008 stock market crash strongly affected pension asset value in that equity allocation on average accounted for 56 percent of invested assets. The average 2009 pension asset beta of 0.63 …

Fair Value Accounting: How Bad Decisions Bring Blame To Beneficial Accounting Procedures, Thomas John Ciulla

Senior Honors Theses

The Great Recession has sparked a debate amongst accounting professionals and economic analysts. There has been a concerted effort to blame fair value accounting and FAS 157 as the recession’s root cause and an attempt to challenge FASB to return to the historic cost principle. This paper examines the guidelines and procedures for mark to market as established by FASB, observes the events leading up to the recession, conditions that materialized at the start of the recession, evaluates the role fair value played in the financial crisis, and considers how fair value should be used in the future.

Upjohn Institute Policy Paper: Public Pension Crisis And Investment Risk Taking: Underfunding, Fiscal Constraints, Public Accounting, And Policy Implications, Nancy Mohan, Ting Zhang

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Public pension funds that cover retirement benefits for almost 20 million active or retired employees have been significantly underfunded. An important, though largely overlooked, issue related to pension underfunding is the excessive investment risk levels assumed by public plans. Our analysis suggests government accounting standards strongly affect public fund investment risk, as higher return assumptions (used to discount pension liabilities) are associated with higher investment risk.

Public funds undertake more risk if they are underfunded and have lower investment returns in previous years, consistent with the risk transfer hypothesis. Furthermore, pension funds in states facing fiscal constraints allocate more assets …

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 6, Spring 2012

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.

The Rise Of American Industrial And Financial Corporations, Elizabeth A. Laughlin

Gettysburg Economic Review

This paper identifies and analyzes the steps the United States took in its progression to an industrial nation. Launched by the merger movement in the late nineteenth century, vertical and horizontal integration lead to trusts and monopolies in a number of industries. Simultaneously, the labor market was undergoing a number of reforms with the deskilling of workers. The rise of big business was made possible through the growth of the financial sectors and companies such as J.P Morgan. The case study of The Standard Oil Co. highlights the wealth and power that robber barons such as J.D. Rockefeller held during …

The Impact Of Institutional Arrangements On Educational Efficiency, Trevor Collier

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Per-pupil expenditures on education in the United States have grown immensely in recent decades, yet student achievement has been stagnant. An abundance of research has sought to solve this enigma, much of it centered on the incentive structure facing administrators. Some recent papers use TIMSS data to analyze the relationship between institutional arrangements—that typically do not vary within a single country—and student achievement. Similarly, we utilize TIMSS 1999 to determine if there is an indirect relationship between institutional arrangements and student achievement, via a relationship with school efficiency. Our results show that the specified link between institutional arrangements and student …

The Potential Application Of Weather Derivatives To Hedge Harvest Value Risk In The Champagne Region Of France, Andrew W. Yandell

CMC Senior Theses

In Champagne, France grape growers and and winemakers work together to make the world's most iconic sparkling wine. Part of what makes Champagne so celebrated is its reputation for constant quality: only the best grapes are used to make wine. In poor vintage years, grape growers sell less grapes to winemakers; poor vintages are the result of bad weather. This presents the opportunity for grape growers to hedge the risk of poor weather and resulting lower harvest values with weather derivatives. This study explores the potential for grape growers to trade them to effectively hedge against low harvest values by …

Echoes From Geneva: Finding John Calvin’S Socio-Economic Interests In The Modern World, Brenda K. Savage

Master of Liberal Studies Theses

Through an examination of John Calvin’s intentions in ending the prohibition on usury and the practical application of his teachings in sixteenth-century Geneva, and a consideration of the elements of poverty, social outcasts, and exploitation common to both Geneva and the modern world, it can be argued that the Reformer has much to offer of continued relevancy for those seeking to engage their contemporary world by finding alternatives that can help the financially disenfranchised. Calvin is often referred to as the “Father of Modern Interest,” and as such many people have directly blamed him for the exploitation associated with capitalism. …

The Effects Of Walmart On Healthcare And Unionization: Is America Really Saving Money And Living Better?, Leyla Ziad

Renée Crown University Honors Thesis Projects - All

As the largest private sector employer in the United States, corporate retail giant Walmart continues to make waves in United States culture and the economy since launching its first store in 1962. As Walmart seeks to expand, the validity of its consumer guarantee to “save money, live better” has been increasingly scrutinized, given Walmart’s use of controversial business practices, most notably its employee benefit policies and anti-unionization efforts. With over 1.4 million employees in the United States, there is much talk surrounding the potential costs of Walmart’s low prices. This study analyzes selected healthcare and unionization impacts of Walmart in …

Ua37/29 Gary Ransdell - Federal Reserve Board - Ben Bernanke Town Hall Meeting, St. Louis Federal Reserve Board

Faculty/Staff Personal Papers

Email sent to members of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Board of Ben Bernanke's town hall meeting with educators.

Monetary Policy Essay, Dan Brocklehurst

Academic Symposium of Undergraduate Scholarship

No abstract provided.

See No Evil? Revisiting Early Visions Of The Social Responsibility Of Business: Adolf A. Berle’S Contribution To Contemporary Conversations, Erika George

Seattle University Law Review

Much corporate legal scholarship considers such fact patterns as beyond the scope of the discipline’s core concerns. Yet, increasingly, questions are asked concerning the scale and scope of modern corporate power. This Article will challenge the conventional understanding of what the core discipline of corporate law should encompass and argues that the failure to focus on precisely these sorts of factual scenarios involving allegations of corporate complicity in human rights violations and environmental degradation is misguided and short-sighted.

Neo-Brandeisianism And The New Deal: Adolf A. Berle, Jr., William O. Douglas, And The Problem Of Corporate Finance In The 1930s, Jessica Wang

Seattle University Law Review

This essay revisits Adolf A. Berle, Jr. and The Modern Corporation and Private Property by focusing on the triangle of Berle, Louis D. Brandeis, and William O. Douglas in order to examine some of the underlying assumptions about law, economics, and the nature of modern society behind securities regulation and corporate finance in the 1930s. I explore Douglas and Berle’s academic and political relationship, the conceptual underpinnings of Brandeis, Berle, and Douglas’s critiques of modern finance, and the ways in which the two younger men—Berle and Douglas—ultimately departed from their role model, Brandeis.

Foreword: In Berle’S Footsteps, Charles R.T. O'Kelley

Seattle University Law Review

On the weekend of November 6–8, 2009, scholars from around the world gathered in Seattle for a symposium—In Berle’s Footsteps—celebrating the launch of the Adolf A. Berle, Jr. Center on Corporations, Law and Society. As founding director of the Berle Center, I described our undertaking: “It is with a profound sense of obligation to the legacy that has been entrusted to my care, that I announce the launching of the Adolf A. Berle, Jr. Center on Corporations, Law and Society. It is a privilege to follow in Berle’s footsteps.”

Opening Remarks, Chancellor William B. Chandler Iii

Seattle University Law Review

Law is, in many ways, a backwards-looking field. We litigate over facts that have already occurred, challenge deals that have already been signed, and apply rules of decision based on previously-established precedent or statutes already enacted. To the extent that this Center and the symposium reflect on Berle’s work, they too are an exercise in looking back. Indeed, some might say the establishment of a Center named in Berle’s honor is a monument to the past.

Revisiting Berle And Rethinking The Corporate Structure, Kelli A. Alces

Seattle University Law Review

Adolf Berle and Gardiner Means painted what remains a defining portrait of corporate law. The separation of ownership and control they described and the agency costs it causes are still a central concern of the law of corporate governance. For that reason, Berle’s work is relevant nearly eighty years after its publication. Seemingly forgotten, however, is that Berle’s enduring description of the corporate structure was published before most of today’s corporate law was in place. His work preceded the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and even preceded the dominance of Delaware common law in …

Power Without Property, Still: Unger, Berle, And The Derivatives Revolution, Cristie Ford, Carol Liao

Seattle University Law Review

We are in a time when the notion of property is in flux. The derivatives revolution has shattered the “atom of property” well beyond what was originally imagined in 1932 by Adolf Berle and Gardiner Means. This disaggregation has had fascinating, and often adverse, effects on corporate law and securities regulation. Moreover, the phenomenon has had the unexpected effect of permitting some parties that already possess considerable social, economic, and political power to accumulate even more.