Econometrics Commons^™

Granger Causality Of The Relationship Between Tourist Flows And Household Expenditure In Jamaica, Ben Williams

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Keynesians propose that increases in tourist arrivals are associated with an expansion in private spending through the multiplier effect. To test this hypothesis, this study augments a simple consumption function with tourist arrivals and employs the dynamic OLS method to compute the short and long run relationships of the variables. Time series data from 1980-2019 is used to test if tourist arrivals Granger cause household expenditure. The results show that there is no relationship between tourist arrivals and household expenditure in Jamaica and tourist arrivals do not Granger cause household expenditure.