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Articles 1 - 6 of 6
Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
Eco 230 / Mgt 230 Introduction To Economic And Managerial Statistics, George Vachadze
Eco 230 / Mgt 230 Introduction To Economic And Managerial Statistics, George Vachadze
Open Educational Resources
Development and application of modern statistical methods, including such elements of descriptive statistics and statistical inference as correlation and regression analysis, probability theory, sampling procedures, normal distribution and binomial distribution, estimation, and testing of hypotheses.
Shocks To Aggregate Demand And Aggregate Supply In The Midst Of Covid-19, Anna M. Gellerman
Shocks To Aggregate Demand And Aggregate Supply In The Midst Of Covid-19, Anna M. Gellerman
Publications and Research
COVID-19 sent shockwaves throughout the economy, changing the amounts of goods and services distributed and altering the demand. This article discusses the negative demand shock and adverse supply shock that the U.S. economy faced in 2020, and the policies that the government implemented to reverse these effects.
Teaching Size And Power Properties Of Hypothesis Tests Through Simulations, Suleyman Taspinar, Osman Dogan
Teaching Size And Power Properties Of Hypothesis Tests Through Simulations, Suleyman Taspinar, Osman Dogan
Publications and Research
In this study, we review the graphical methods suggested in Davidson and MacKinnon (Davidson, Russell, and James G. MacKinnon. 1998. “Graphical Methods for Investigating the Size and Power of Hypothesis Tests.” The Manchester School 66 (1): 1–26.) that can be used to investigate size and power properties of hypothesis tests for undergraduate and graduate econometrics courses. These methods can be used to assess finite sample properties of various hypothesis tests through simulation studies. In addition, these methods can be effectively used in classrooms to reinforce students’ understanding of basic hypothesis testing concepts such as Type I error, Type II error, …
Heteroskedasticity Of Unknown Form In Spatial Autoregressive Models With A Moving Average Disturbance Term, Osman Dogan
Heteroskedasticity Of Unknown Form In Spatial Autoregressive Models With A Moving Average Disturbance Term, Osman Dogan
Publications and Research
In this study, I investigate the necessary condition for the consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of spatial models with a spatial moving average process in the disturbance term. I show that the MLE of spatial autoregressive and spatial moving average parameters is generally inconsistent when heteroskedasticity is not considered in the estimation. I also show that the MLE of parameters of exogenous variables is inconsistent and determine its asymptotic bias. I provide simulation results to evaluate the performance of the MLE. The simulation results indicate that the MLE imposes a substantial amount of bias on both autoregressive and …
A Dynamic-Trend Exponential Smoothing Model, Don Miller, Dan Williams
A Dynamic-Trend Exponential Smoothing Model, Don Miller, Dan Williams
Publications and Research
Forecasters often encounter situations in which the local pattern of a time series is not expected to persist over the forecasting horizon. Since exponential smoothing models emphasize recent behavior, their forecasts may not be appropriate over longer horizons. In this paper, we develop a new model in which the local trend line projected by exponential smoothing converges asymptotically to an assumed future long-run trend line, which might be an extension of a historical long-run trend line. The rapidity of convergence is governed by a parameter. A familiar example is an economic series exhibiting persistent long-run trend with cyclic variation. This …
Level Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Method For Judgmentally Adjusting Exponential Smoothing Models For Planned Discontinuities, Dan Williams, Don Miller
Level Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Method For Judgmentally Adjusting Exponential Smoothing Models For Planned Discontinuities, Dan Williams, Don Miller
Publications and Research
Forecasters often make judgmental adjustments to exponential smoothing forecasts to account for the effects of a future planned change. While this approach may produce sound initial forecasts, it can result in diminished accuracy for forecast updates. A proposed technique lets the forecaster include policy change adjustments within an exponential smoothing model. For 20 real data series representing Virginia Medicaid expenses, initial forecasts and forecast updates are developed using the proposed technique and several alternatives, and they are updated through various simulated level shifts. The proposed technique was more accurate than the alternatives in updating forecasts when a shift in level …