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Articles 1 - 30 of 32
Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
Common Bubble Detection In Large Dimensional Financial Systems, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi
Common Bubble Detection In Large Dimensional Financial Systems, Ye Chen, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shuping Shi
Research Collection School Of Economics
Price bubbles in multiple assets are sometimes nearly coincident in occurrence. Such near-coincidence is strongly suggestive of co-movement in the associated asset prices and is likely driven by certain factors that are latent in the financial or economic system with common effects across several markets. Can we detect the presence of such common factors at the early stages of their emergence? To answer this question, we build a factor model that includes I(1), mildly explosive, and stationary factors to capture normal, exuberant, and collapsing phases in such phenomena. The I(1) factor models the primary driving force of market fundamentals. The …
Economic Forecasting In A Pandemic: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Keen Meng Choy
Economic Forecasting In A Pandemic: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Keen Meng Choy
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper aims to investigate whether the predictive performance and behaviour of professional forecasters are different during the COVID-19 pandemic as compared with the global financial crisis of 2008 and normal times. To this end, we use a survey of professional forecasters in Singapore collated by the central bank to analyse the forecasting records for GDP growth and CPI inflation for the period 2000Q1–2021Q4. We first examine the point forecasts to document the extent of forecast failure duringthe two crises and explore various explanations for it, such as leader-following and herding behaviour. Then, using percentile-based summary measures of probability distribution …
Inflation Dynamics And Expectations In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan
Inflation Dynamics And Expectations In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Inflation dynamics in Singapore have primarily been shaped by foreign factors, including global inflationary pressures and external macroeconomic shocks. More recently, the normalisation phase of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis has led to domestic price pressures from pent-up demand and supply-chain disruptions. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has resulted in a hike in the global prices of food, energy, and industrial commodities. Using inflation forecasts from the MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters as our measure of inflation expectations, we show that short-term inflation expectations have shifted up recently. Moreover, greater disagreement amongst survey respondents in the more recent surveys suggests individual …
Cities In A Pandemic: Evidence From China, Badi H. Baltagi, Ying Deng, Li Jing, Zhenlin Yang
Cities In A Pandemic: Evidence From China, Badi H. Baltagi, Ying Deng, Li Jing, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies the impact of urban density, city government efficiency, and medical resources on COVID-19 infection and death outcomes in China. We adopt a simultaneous spatial dynamic panel data model to account for (i) the simultaneity of infection and death outcomes, (ii) the spatial pattern of the transmission, (iii) the intertemporal dynamics of the disease, and (iv) the unobserved city-specific and time-specific effects. We find that, while population density increases the level of infections, government efficiency significantly mitigates the negative impact of urban density. We also find that the availability of medical resources improves public health outcomes conditional on …
Entrepreneurship In Singapore, Jungho Lee
Entrepreneurship In Singapore, Jungho Lee
Research Collection School Of Economics
Singapore has completed its catch-up growth phase and needs to find a new growth engine. Entrepreneurship can contribute to a nation’s productivity growth. The purpose of this chapter is twofold. First, a theoretical framework is presented, along with empirical evidence, to understand government interventions aimed at boosting entrepreneurship. Second, using the framework, the chapter discusses whether Singapore’s current policies are suitable for helping entrepreneurship. The theory demonstrates four reasons why government intervention is needed: (1) resource misallocation, (2) positive externality, (3) entrepreneurial human capital, and (4) tax and default policies. Singapore’s government has implemented various policies that potentially fix market …
Universal Minimum Wage Is Not Suitable For Singapore, Zhengxiao Wu
Universal Minimum Wage Is Not Suitable For Singapore, Zhengxiao Wu
Research Collection School Of Economics
In a commentary, SMU Senior Lecturer of Statistics Wu Zhengxiao examined the concept of a universal minimum wage, and discussed how it is not suitable for Singapore.
Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan Chow
Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
Diebold–Yilmaz spillover indexes are computed for weekly return volatilities based on daily benchmark stock indexes of the US, the UK, and 10 Asian countries. We found (i) the strengthening of overall volatility spillovers is not a temporary surge but persisted after the crisis; (ii) the susceptibility of individual Asian stock markets to inward volatility transfers is linked to its degree of openness; and (iii) the Asian bourses are becoming more important emitters of financial shocks since the crisis. Rolling regressions on volatility linkages reveal the relative dominance of the US over the Japanese and Chinese bourses, and the level of …
Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan
Volatility Spillovers And Linkages In Asian Stock Markets, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
Diebold-Yilmaz spilloverindexes are computed for weekly return volatilities based on daily benchmarkstock indexes of US, UK and ten Asian countries. We found (i) the strengthening ofoverall volatility spillovers is not a temporary surge but persisted after thecrisis; (ii) the susceptibility ofindividual Asian stock markets to inward volatility transfers is linked to itsdegree of openness; and (iii) the Asian bourses are becoming more importantemitters of financial shocks since the crisis. Rolling regressions on volatilitylinkages reveal the relative dominance of the US over the Japanese and Chinesebourses, and the level of influence on Asian stock markets from the Chinesebourse has risen to …
Singapore’S Life Program: Actuarial Framework, Longevity Risk And Impact Of Annuity Fund Return, Koon Shing Kwong, Yiu Kuen Tse, Wai-Sum Chan
Singapore’S Life Program: Actuarial Framework, Longevity Risk And Impact Of Annuity Fund Return, Koon Shing Kwong, Yiu Kuen Tse, Wai-Sum Chan
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Central Provident Fund (CPF) is a defined-contribution savings plan forming the key pillar of the pension system in Singapore. The CPF Lifelong Income For the Elderly (LIFE) program, which provides lifetime income for retirees, is a mandatory pension scheme for all Singapore residents. In this paper we construct an actuarial framework to analyze the LIFE program. We use this framework to study the plan payout outcomes with respect to changes in mortality and annuity fund return assumptions. We also examine the effects of some possible changes in the program on the payouts and bequests.
New Methodology For Constructing Real Estate Price Indices Applied To The Singapore Residential Market, Liang Jiang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
New Methodology For Constructing Real Estate Price Indices Applied To The Singapore Residential Market, Liang Jiang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops a new methodology for constructing a real estate price index that utilizes all transaction price information, encompassing both single-sales and repeat-sales. The method is less susceptible to specification error than standard hedonic methods and is not subject to the sample selection bias involved in indexes that rely only on repeat sales. The methodology employs a model design that uses a sale pairing process based on the individual building level, rather than the individual house level as is used in the repeat-sales method. The approach extends ideas from repeat-sales methodology in a way that accommodates much wider datasets. …
A New Hedonic Regression For Real Estate Prices Applied To The Singapore Residential Market, Jiang Liang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
A New Hedonic Regression For Real Estate Prices Applied To The Singapore Residential Market, Jiang Liang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops a new hedonic method for constructing a real estate price index that utilizes all transaction price information that encompasses both single-sale and repeat-sale properties. The new method is less prone to specification errors than standard hedonic methods and uses all available data. Like the Case-Shiller repeat-sales method, the new method has the advantage of being computationally efficient. In an empirical analysis of the methodology, we fit the model to all transaction prices for private residential property holdings in Singapore between Q1 1995 and Q2 2014, covering several periods of major price fluctuation and changes in government macro …
Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin
Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi, and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, yet another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, this method has …
Singapore Inflation Expectations: Expecting The Unexpected, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu
Singapore Inflation Expectations: Expecting The Unexpected, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The study of inflation expectations of Singapore house-holds is a multi-disciplinary industry-relevant research that comes out of a partnership between Singapore Management University (SMU) and MasterCard. The research team for this MasterCard-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) project applied rigorous methods using current internet-based marketing survey tools for data-collection and advanced econometric techniques to analyse the data. The updates from the quarterly waves are keenly followed by policymakers, market watchers and the media because of the enormous importance of cost of living to individuals and businesses alike.
Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin
Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, the method finds a …
Singapore Consumer’S Inflation Expectations And Creation Of Singapore Index Of Inflation Expectations, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu
Singapore Consumer’S Inflation Expectations And Creation Of Singapore Index Of Inflation Expectations, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The aim of this report is to highlight a broad spectrum of issues that brings about the measurement of the disagreement and the uncertainity and the formation of inflation expectations among economic agents in Singapore.
Need Singapore Fear Floating? A Dsge-Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Paul D. Mcnelis
Need Singapore Fear Floating? A Dsge-Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Paul D. Mcnelis
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper uses a DSGE-VAR model to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore and asks if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate with a Taylor rule inflation-targeting mechanism that uses the short term interest rate instead of the exchange rate as the benchmark monetary policy instrument. Our simulation results show that the use of a more flexible exchange rate system will reduce volatility in inflation and investment but consumption volatility will increase. Overall, there are neither signi cant welfare gains or losses in the regime shift. Given the highly open and trade …
Hong Kong's Money: The History, Logic And Operation Of The Currency Peg, Hwee Kwan Chow
Hong Kong's Money: The History, Logic And Operation Of The Currency Peg, Hwee Kwan Chow
Research Collection School Of Economics
No abstract provided.
Global And Regional Sources Of Risk In Equity Markets: Evidence From Factor Models With Time-Varying Conditional Skewness, Aamir R. Hashmi, Anthony S. Tay
Global And Regional Sources Of Risk In Equity Markets: Evidence From Factor Models With Time-Varying Conditional Skewness, Aamir R. Hashmi, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We examine the influence of global and regional factors on the conditional distribution of stock returns from six Asian markets, using factor models in which unexpected returns comprise global, regional and local shocks. The models allow for conditional heteroskedasticity and time-varying conditional skewness, and are used to measure mean, variance, and skewness spillovers. We find that incorporating time-varying conditional skewness improves the fit of our spillover models, and can alter measurements of variance spillovers. However, time-varying conditional skewness is mostly a local phenomenon; with exceptions, there is little spillover in skewness from global and regional factors.
Open Vs Sealed Bid Auctions: Testing For Revenue Equivalence Under Singapore's Vehicle Quota System, Roberto S. Mariano, Winston T. H. Koh, Yiu Kuen Tse
Open Vs Sealed Bid Auctions: Testing For Revenue Equivalence Under Singapore's Vehicle Quota System, Roberto S. Mariano, Winston T. H. Koh, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
Using data from the auction of vehicle quota licenses in Singapore, we study if revenue equivalence holds when the auction format was switched from a sealed-bid format (May 1990 to June 2001) to an open bidding format since July 2001. Our econometric analysis indicates the change in auction format led to a change in bidding behavior. On average, the quota license premium under the open bidding format is about US$1000 (about 7.5% of the Category E license price in June 2001) lower, compared to the forecast level that would have prevailed if there had been no change in the auction …
Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behaviour: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip
Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behaviour: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip
Research Collection School Of Economics
The Currency Board System in Hong Kong and the monitoring band system in Singapore are important benchmarks for two different exchange-rate systems. In this paper we consider the implications of the two exchange-rate systems on the interest-rate behaviour of the two economies. We examine the domestic–US interest differentials under the two exchange-rate regimes during the Asian Financial Crisis as well as the pre-and post-crisis periods. Using a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model, we also investigate whether there is any change in the correlation between the domestic and US interest rates due to the Asian Financial Crisis.
The Rise In House Prices In China: Bubbles Or Fundamentals?, Jianying Hu, Liangjun Su, Sainan Jin, Wanjun Jiang
The Rise In House Prices In China: Bubbles Or Fundamentals?, Jianying Hu, Liangjun Su, Sainan Jin, Wanjun Jiang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The dramatic rise of house prices in many cities of China has brought huge attention from both the governmental and academic circles. There is a huge debate on whether the increasing house prices are driven by market fundamentals or just by speculation. Like Levin and Wright (1997a, 1997b), we decompose house prices in China into fundamental and non−fundamental components. We also consider potential nonlinear feedback from the historical growth rate of house prices on the current house prices and propose a semiparametric approach to estimate the speculative components in the model. We demonstrate that the non−fundamental part contributes a relatively …
An Empirical Examination Of Ipo Underpricing In The Chinese A-Share Market, Ting Yu, Yiu Kuen Tse
An Empirical Examination Of Ipo Underpricing In The Chinese A-Share Market, Ting Yu, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
Research in the literature shows that initial public offerings (IPOs) of common stocks are systematically priced at a discount to their subsequent initial trading price. The large underpricing magnitude in the Chinese IPO market has attracted much attention. We consider three hypotheses that may explain the IPO underpricing in China. These are the winner's curse hypothesis, the ex ante uncertainty hypothesis and the signaling hypothesis. Among these hypotheses, the winner's curse hypothesis has not been tested in the Chinese market. Using IPO data for online fixed-price offerings from November 1995 to December 1998, our results show that the winner's curse …
Effects Of Electronic Trading On The Hang Seng Index Futures Market, Joseph K. W. Fung, Donald Lien, Yiuman Tse, Yiu Kuen Tse
Effects Of Electronic Trading On The Hang Seng Index Futures Market, Joseph K. W. Fung, Donald Lien, Yiuman Tse, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
This investigation of the switch from open-outcry trading to electronic trading on the Hang Seng Index (HSI) futures contract reveals that the bid–ask spread narrows and the futures price plays more of a role in information transmission. Factors, such as anonymity in trading and fast order execution in electronic trading, attract informed traders to the futures market, enhancing the information flow. Our results provide support for the worldwide trend of transforming open-outcry markets into electronic trading platforms
Expectations Formation And Forecasting Of Vehicle Demand: An Empirical Study Of The Vehicle Quota Auctions In Singapore, Sing-Fat Chu, Winston T. H. Koh, Yiu Kuen Tse
Expectations Formation And Forecasting Of Vehicle Demand: An Empirical Study Of The Vehicle Quota Auctions In Singapore, Sing-Fat Chu, Winston T. H. Koh, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper studies the expectations formation and forecasting of vehicle demand in Singapore under the vehicle quota system. Under the system, a car buyer must first bid for a vehicle license in monthly auctions in order to purchase a new car. We construct an econometric model to test the hypothesis that past bid distributions of the license auctions contain information that car buyers can use to update their expectations about the intensity of market demand, forecast the license premiums and formulate their bidding strategies in future auctions. Our empirical analysis indicates that past bid distributions have a good degree of …
Micro-Level Estimation Of The Prevalence Of Stunting And Underweight Among Children In Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii, Livia Montana
Micro-Level Estimation Of The Prevalence Of Stunting And Underweight Among Children In Cambodia, Tomoki Fujii, Livia Montana
Research Collection School Of Economics
We are pleased to share this copy of the preliminary report on "Micro-Level Estimation of the Prevalence of Stunting and Underweight Among Children in Cambodia." This study is the result of a collaboration between the Ministry of Planning, the United Nations World Food Programme and the MEASURE DHS+ project, with in-kind assistance from The World Bank. We also would like to express our acknowledgement to Italian Cooperation and International Fund for Agricultural Development for supporting in publication and distribution.
An Empirical Examination Of Ipo Underpricing In The Chinese A-Share Market, Ting Yu, Yiu Kuen Tse
An Empirical Examination Of Ipo Underpricing In The Chinese A-Share Market, Ting Yu, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
Research in the literature shows that initial public offerings (IPOs) of common stocks are systematically priced at a discount to their subsequent initial trading price. The large underpricing magnitude in the Chinese IPO market has attracted much attention. We consider three hypotheses that may explain the IPO underpricing in China. These are the winner's curse hypothesis, the ex ante uncertainty hypothesis and the signaling hypothesis. Among these hypotheses, the winner's curse hypothesis has not been tested in the Chinese market. Using IPO data for online fixed-price offerings from November 1995 to December 1998, our results show that the winner's curse …
Open Versus Sealed-Bid Auctions: Testing For Revenue Equivalence Under Singapore's Vehicle Quota System, Winston T. H. Koh, Roberto S. Mariano, Yiu Kuen Tse
Open Versus Sealed-Bid Auctions: Testing For Revenue Equivalence Under Singapore's Vehicle Quota System, Winston T. H. Koh, Roberto S. Mariano, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
Using data from the auction of vehicle quota licenses in Singapore, we study if revenue equivalence holds when the auction format was switched from a sealed-bid format (May 1990 to June 2001) to an open bidding format since July 2001. Our econometric analysis indicates the change in auction format led to a change in bidding behavior. On average, the quota license premium under the open bidding format is about US$1,000 (about 7.5% of the Category E license price in June 2001) lower, compared to the forecast level that would have prevailed if there had been no change in the auction …
Markov Switching Garch Models Of Currency Crises In Southeast Asia, Celso Brunetti, Roberto S. Mariano, Chiara Scotti, Augustine H. H. Tan
Markov Switching Garch Models Of Currency Crises In Southeast Asia, Celso Brunetti, Roberto S. Mariano, Chiara Scotti, Augustine H. H. Tan
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops a model which is able to forecast exchange rate turmoil. Our starting point relies on the empirical evidence that exchange rate volatility is not constant. In fact, the modeling strategy adopted refers to the vast literature of the GARCH class of models, where the variance process is explicitly modeled. Further empirical evidence shows that it is possible to distinguish between two different regimes: îordinaryî versus îturbulenceî. Low exchange rate changes are associated with low volatility (ordinary regime) and high exchange rate devaluations go together with high volatility. This calls for a regime switching approach. In our model …
Effects Of Electronic Trading On The Hang Seng Index Futures Market, Joseph Fung, Donald Lien, Yiuman Tse, Yiu Kuen Tse
Effects Of Electronic Trading On The Hang Seng Index Futures Market, Joseph Fung, Donald Lien, Yiuman Tse, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper investigates the effects of the migration of the Hang Seng Index futures from open-outcry trading to electronic trading. Using trade data over a window of six months we find evidence that, after the migration, the bid-ask spread of the futures contract decreases and the contribution of the futures price in information transmission increases. Furthermore, the asymmetry in volatility spillover reduces and the open interests of the futures market become smaller. These results suggest that the anonymity in trading and the higher speed of order execution in the electronic trading system attract informed traders to the futures market and …
Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behavior: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip
Exchange-Rate Systems And Interest-Rate Behavior: The Experience Of Hong Kong And Singapore, Yiu Kuen Tse, Paul S. L. Yip
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we consider the implications of the two different exchange-rate systems in Hong Kong (HK) and Singapore (SP) on the economic performance of these two economies. While HK has a pegged exchange-rate regime under a currency board system (CBS), SP has a managed-float system with monitoring band. We examine whether the managed-float system of SP provides an advantage over the rigid CBS of HK in mitigating the recession caused by the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), and the implications of the differences in the exchange-rate systems on interest-rate behaviour. Our empirical results show that the monitoring band system in …