Econometrics Commons^™

Cointegration Testing Under Structural Change: Reducing Size Distortions And Improving Power Of Residual Based Tests, Marco Morales

Marco Morales

No abstract provided.

Time Series, Unit Roots, And Cointegration: An Introduction, Lonnie K. Stevans

Lonnie K. Stevans

The econometric literature on unit roots took off after the publication of the paper by Nelson and Plosser (1982) that argued that most macroeconomic series have unit roots and that this is important for the analysis of macroeconomic policy. Yule (1926) suggested that regressions based on trending time series data can be spurious. This problem of spurious correlation was further pursued by Granger and Newbold (1974) and this also led to the development of the concept of cointegration (lack of cointegration implies spurious regression). The pathbreaking paper by Granger (1981), first presented at a conference at the University of Florida …

Estimating The Narcotic Effect Of Public Sector Impasse Procedures, Richard J. Butler, Ronald G. Ehrenberg

Ronald G. Ehrenberg

This paper first describes in a relatively nontechnical fashion several econometric techniques that the authors believe should be useful to industrial relations researchers. Those techniques are then applied to an analysis of whether public sector impasse procedures create a "narcotic effect," that is, a tendency for the bargaining parties, once they use the procedures, to become increasingly reliant on them in future negotiations. The authors reanalyze data from Thomas Kochan and Joan Baderschneider’s study of the impasse experience of police and firefighters under New York State’s Taylor Law during the 1968-76 period and find that while a narcotic effect did …

Income Inequality And Economic Incentives: Is There An Equity-Efficiency Tradeoff?, Lonnie K. Stevans

Lonnie K. Stevans

What is the basis and direction of relationship between income inequality and economic growth? The equity versus efficiency dictum which predicts a positive relationship between inequality, capital formation, and real GDP growth—emphasizes the importance of economic incentives. Subsequently, this was challenged by the incomplete markets and political outcomes theories, because of increasing empirical evidence of an inverse relationship between income inequality and economic growth. In this paper, a further explanation of the basis and nature of the inequality–capital–growth relationship is presented, which emphasizes the divergence between savings and investment. For the United States, over the period 1970–2006, we have found …

Correlates Of Economic Growth In Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach, Lonnie K. Stevans, James P. Neelankavil, Francisco L. Roman

Lonnie K. Stevans

The inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been found to play a crucial role in the economic growth of receiving countries. Using panel cointegration techniques, this perception was found to be mitigated by an empirical approach that yields different results from previous studies. While the growth in real FDI has an influence on real GDP growth across developing countries in the short-run, year-to-year periods, it does not explain real GDP in the long-run. Rather, it appears to be the economic factors internal to a country that have the most influence on real GDP over time: human capital (measured by …

Regression Anatomy, Revealed, Valerio Filoso

Valerio Filoso

The Regression Anatomy (RA) theorem (Angrist and Pischke 2009) is an alternative formulation of the Frisch-Waugh-Lovell (FWL) theorem (Frisch and Waugh 1933; Lovell 1963), a key finding in the algebra of OLS multiple regression models. In this paper, we present a command, reganat, to implement graphically the method of RA. This addition complements the built-in Stata command avplot in the validation of linear models, producing bidimensional scatterplots and regression lines obtained controlling for the other covariates, along with sev- eral fine-tuning options. Moreover, the article provides (1) a fully worked-out proof of the RA theorem and (2) an explanation of …

On The Measurement Of Total Factor Productivity: A Latent Variable Approach, Marco Morales, Rodrigo Fuentes

Marco Morales

No abstract provided.

Transmisión De Shocks Y Acoplamiento Con Mercados Accionarios Externos: Efectos Asimétricos Y Quiebre Estructural, Marco Morales, Maria Jose Melendez, Guillermo Yáñez

Marco Morales

No abstract provided.

Using Econometrics: A Practical Guide, A. Studenmund

A. H. Studenmund

No abstract provided.

Men In Black: The Impact Of New Contracts On Football Referees’ Performances, Babatunde Buraimo, Alex Bryson, Rob Simmons

Dr Babatunde Buraimo

No abstract provided.

Participation And Engagement In Sport: A Double Hurdle Approach For The United Kingdom, Babatunde Buraimo, Brad Humphreys, Rob Simmons

Dr Babatunde Buraimo

This paper uses pooled cross-section data from four waves of the United Kingdom’s Taking Part Survey, 2005 to 2009, in order to investigate determinants of probability of participation and levels of engagement in sports. The two rival modelling approaches considered here are the double-hurdle approach and the Heckman sample selection model. The Heckman model proves to be deficient in several key respects. The double-hurdle approach offers more reliable estimates than the Heckman sample selection model, at least for this particular survey. The distinction is more than just statistical nuance as there are substantive differences in qualitative results from the two …

Lag Order Selection For An Optimal Autoregressive Covariance Matrix Estimator, Marco Morales

Marco Morales

No abstract provided.

The Real Yield Curve And Macroeconomic Factors In The Chilean Economy, Marco Morales

Marco Morales

No abstract provided.

Event Studies In Finance: Discussion, Carlo Drago

Carlo Drago

No abstract provided.

Econometric Studies Of Higher Education, Ronald G. Ehrenberg

Ronald G. Ehrenberg

[Excerpt] The economics of higher education goes back at least to Adam Smith, who suggested over 200 years ago in the Wealth of Nations that professors should get paid based upon the number of students enrolled in their classes. The econometrics of higher education is of much more recent vintage and emerged from the development of human capital theory and the efforts to estimate rates of return to education in the 1960s and 1970s. In the sections that follow, I survey the various strands of the literature on the econometrics of higher education that have developed during the last 40 …

The Relationship Between Poverty And Economic Growth Revisited, Lonnie K. Stevans, David N. Sessions

Lonnie K. Stevans

It has been shown in prior research that increased economic growth reduces poverty. Authors have also found that the effect of growth in GDP on poverty growth has either diminished or remained unchanged over time and the 1980s economic expansion in the U.S. had no affect on poverty. Using a formal error-correction model, we find that increases in economic growth are significantly related to reductions in the poverty rate for all families. Specifically, GDP growth was found to have a more pronounced effect on poverty during the expansionary periods of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Other findings include …

Gone In 60 Seconds: The Absorption Of News In A High-Frequency Betting Market, Babatunde Buraimo, David Peel, Rob Simmons

Dr Babatunde Buraimo

This paper tests for efficiency in a betting market that offers high-frequency data, the Betfair betting exchange for wagering on outcomes of English Premier League soccer matches. We find clear evidence of rapid adjustment of prices to large disturbances (news). Full adjustment takes place within a one minute interval after the news. This suggests that this particular wagering market is not just efficient at pre-match prices but is also efficient in the face of events within games.

Unit Roots And Cointegration, Lonnie K. Stevans

Lonnie K. Stevans

No abstract provided.

Investigating Omitted Variable Bias In Regression Parameter Estimation: A Genetic Algorithm Approach, Lonnie K. Stevans, David N. Sessions

Lonnie K. Stevans

Bias in regression estimates resulting from the omission of a correlated relevant variable is a well known phenomenon. In this study, we apply a genetic algorithm to estimate the missing variable and, using that estimated variable, demonstrate that significant bias in regression estimates can be substantially corrected with relatively high confidence in effective models. Our interest is restricted to the case of a missing binary indicator variable and the analytical properties of bias and MSE dominance of the resulting dependent error generated vector process. These findings are compared to prior results for the independent error proxy process. Simulations are run …

Aggregate Consumption Spending, The Stock Market, And Asymmetric Error Correction, Lonnie K. Stevans

Lonnie K. Stevans

In this study, we show how changes in wealth resulting from unanticipated changes in the value of equity holdings begin a process whereby households alter consumption growth in order to close the gap between actual and target spending. Because of changing uncertainty or equity price volatility over the stock market cycle, we found the time path of this adjustment to exhibit near random walk behavior during stock market downturns. Conversely, during “boom” periods, e.g. when the value of equities held by households was greater than the threshold, the growth in consumer spending was quick to eliminate the disparity between actual …

Myopia Of Health-Care Reform Using Business Models, Macinnes Kenneth, Vivian C. Mcalister

Vivian C. McAlister

Background: Health-care institutions have looked to business for models to respond to the requirement for reform. This has changed the perspective of institutions that were founded on charitable principles, and managed with liberal employment policies and deficit budgeting. Using lesions from supply-side management, hospitals are fragmenting into independent programs with demands to balance budgets regardless of the source of cost.

Methods: Costs from the institution’s perspective are compared with those of the payer (province) using an example of a proposal to reduce costs in the surgical program by buying disposable drapes.

Results: The actual cost of disposable drapes bought from …

Econometric Models And Economic Forecasts, Daniel Rubinfeld, Robert Pindyck

Daniel L. Rubinfeld

No abstract provided.

The Impact Of Omitting Promotion Variables On Simulation Experiments, David A. Weiskopf

David A Weiskopf

No abstract provided.

Statistical Analysis Of Economic And Financial Data, Daniel Rubinfeld

Daniel L. Rubinfeld

No abstract provided.