Econometrics Commons^™

Modelling Import Demand Function For A Developing Country: An Empirical Approach, Nusrate Aziz

Dr. Nusrate Aziz

Cointegration Analysis Of Oil Prices And Consumer Price Index In South Africa Using Stata Software, Mphumuzi A. Sukati Mr

Mphumuzi A Sukati Mr

This paper investigates the concept of vector autoregression (VAR) and cointegration using a bivariate model of global oil prices and headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) in South Africa. The study aims to determine how much of inflation is driven by oil prices. Particular attention is paid to the theoretical underpinnings of cointergration analysis and the application of STATA software to undertake such analysis and perform test statistics. Contrary to the popular myth that a rise in global oil prices fuels inflation, this study has observed that global oil prices are not the drivers of inflation in South Africa. In this …

Time Series, Unit Roots, And Cointegration: An Introduction, Lonnie K. Stevans

Lonnie K. Stevans

The econometric literature on unit roots took off after the publication of the paper by Nelson and Plosser (1982) that argued that most macroeconomic series have unit roots and that this is important for the analysis of macroeconomic policy. Yule (1926) suggested that regressions based on trending time series data can be spurious. This problem of spurious correlation was further pursued by Granger and Newbold (1974) and this also led to the development of the concept of cointegration (lack of cointegration implies spurious regression). The pathbreaking paper by Granger (1981), first presented at a conference at the University of Florida …

Income Inequality And Economic Incentives: Is There An Equity-Efficiency Tradeoff?, Lonnie K. Stevans

Lonnie K. Stevans

What is the basis and direction of relationship between income inequality and economic growth? The equity versus efficiency dictum which predicts a positive relationship between inequality, capital formation, and real GDP growth—emphasizes the importance of economic incentives. Subsequently, this was challenged by the incomplete markets and political outcomes theories, because of increasing empirical evidence of an inverse relationship between income inequality and economic growth. In this paper, a further explanation of the basis and nature of the inequality–capital–growth relationship is presented, which emphasizes the divergence between savings and investment. For the United States, over the period 1970–2006, we have found …

Transmisión De Precios Para Los Mercados Del Maíz Y Arroz En América Latina, Laure C. Dutoit, Karla Hernández, Cristóbal Urrutia

Laure C Dutoit

The goal of this paper is to analyze price transmission from the international market towards the domestic one, in the case of rice and maize. The countries studied are El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Costa Rica in Center America and Chile and Brazil in South America. The cointegration method is applied to determine if price transmission exists. Furthermore, error correction models are used to estimate the speed of adjustment to deviations from the long-run relationship between the domestic and international markets. Strong price transmission was found in Chile in the maize market and Brasil in the rice market. …

The Relationship Between Poverty And Economic Growth Revisited, Lonnie K. Stevans, David N. Sessions

Lonnie K. Stevans

It has been shown in prior research that increased economic growth reduces poverty. Authors have also found that the effect of growth in GDP on poverty growth has either diminished or remained unchanged over time and the 1980s economic expansion in the U.S. had no affect on poverty. Using a formal error-correction model, we find that increases in economic growth are significantly related to reductions in the poverty rate for all families. Specifically, GDP growth was found to have a more pronounced effect on poverty during the expansionary periods of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Other findings include …