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Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
Return Predictability In International Financial Markets And The Role Of Investor Sentiment, Anjeza Kadilli
Return Predictability In International Financial Markets And The Role Of Investor Sentiment, Anjeza Kadilli
Anjeza Kadilli
We investigate the predictability of stock returns in the financial market for a large panel of developed countries using investor sentiment, business-cycle variables and financial indicators within two panel regime-switching models, with threshold and smooth transition between regimes. We find strong evidence of predictability of long-term returns following the business cycles, but much weaker results for the short-run returns. During crisis times, investor sentiment and inflation become key factors in predicting stock returns. Different tests and goodness of fit measures point out that the use of regime-switching models is more appropriate than linear models. To our knowledge, this study is …
Resource Wealth And Entrepreneurship: A Blessing Or A Curse?, Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
Resource Wealth And Entrepreneurship: A Blessing Or A Curse?, Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
Prof. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan
Resource-rich countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have the highest youth unemployment rate in the world. While other parts of the world are experiencing an increasing trend in new firms’ formation as a potential solution for their unemployment problem, the MENA region has the lowest records in new business establishments. In this study, we investigate the reasons behind such a significant lag of the resource-rich countries in entrepreneurship. Panel data for more than 80 countries from 2004-2009 shows that higher dependence on resource rents reduces entrepreneurship activities. The decline is more significant in countries with higher levels …