Econometrics Commons^™

Dynamic Return Relationships In The Market For Cryptocurrency: A Var Approach, Julian Gouffray

James Madison Undergraduate Research Journal (JMURJ)

This paper examines how the Bitcoin-altcoin return relationship has evolved in periods between 2015 and 2020. To understand this relation, we observe data on the cryptocurrency Bitcoin and prominent altcoins Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, Stellar, and Monero, which collectively represent over 90% of the market throughout the observed period. We employ a vector autoregressive model (VAR) to produce forecast error variance decompositions, orthogonal impulse response functions, and Granger-causality tests. We find evidence that Bitcoin return variation has increasingly explained altcoin returns and that market inefficiency increased between 2017 and 2020, as shown by increased Granger causality between Bitcoin and altcoins. These …

Do Philippine Stocks Catch Coronavirus? Some Econometric Check-Up On Pandemic Data, 2021-2022, Mark Reniel M. Amarila, Luisito C. Abueg

Journal of Economics, Management and Agricultural Development

Using daily data from March 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022, the USD-PHP exchange rate and pandemic-related variables such as the number of cases, vaccinations, and stringency index in relation to the movements of Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) were investigated. The paper views vaccination as an instrument for reducing economic uncertainty, subsequently providing a positive sentiment for investors and stock market. Ordinary least squares, autoregressive distributed lags, and vector autoregression was used to show some dynamics based on time series data. Particularly, there are indications of reported cases being negatively correlated and statistically significant for PSEi. Further, impulse response …

Youth Entrepreneurship Dynamics In Benin: Was Access To Finance The Missing Piece For Opportunistic Self-Employment?, Modeste Melain Senou, Kolotioloman Soro

The Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance

Young people in developing countries and more especially in Sub-Saharan African countries are seeking employment opportunities in challenging economic and social environments. Entrepreneurship appears then as a key factor in reducing unemployment, grasping for a sustainable job and reducing poverty. Both national and international authorities are taking steps to facilitate youth entrepreneurship. In that context, this study aims at reexamining the effect of access to finance on the dynamics of entrepreneurship of young people in transition from School to work in Benin. Using a SURE Probit procedure on data from the International Labor Organization (ILO) we estimated jointly the predicted …

Opportunity Calls: The Moral Economy During Existential Economic Transition In The Ural Mountains And Appalachia, 1991 - 2008, Nora Springer

Of Life and History

It is often assumed that economists and businessmen act outside of moral constraints, even in times of existential economic crisis. The econometrics of Chubais and Gaidar, as well as the accounting of Deloitte, have all been used to characterize engineers of transition as cold, academic, and removed from reality. However, in both Appalachia and the Urals, mathematics about what will make a profit is inextricable from moral questions of what should make a profit. The goals of economic transition, and ideology about what economic transition should mean, were baked into the calculations of both transitions. Further, the data used to …

Panel Data Analysis Of Import Tariff Policy On Economic Growth And Industrial Output In Developing Economies, Connor A. Palazzo

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper is focused on interpreting the effects of import tariff policy on domestic economic growth in the small market economies of developing nations. There have been several previous studies that have investigated the effect of tariff policy on domestic consumers and producers of already established economies. In addition, there have also been many studies assessing the effects tariffs from developed countries have on developing countries. However, few reports have been done on how tariffs impact the domestic producers of a developing nation. It is widely accepted that open and free trade is the best method for facilitating growth and …

Infrastructure Investment And European Economic Growth, John Ziolo

Global Tides

As the global economy continues to recover from the impacts of Covid-19, there is significant discussion among policymakers as to the best mechanisms to stimulate recovery. One of those mechanisms is infrastructure investment. There is a large contingent of policymakers who believe that large, immediate spending on infrastructure will lead to significant economic growth. While another group is concerned about the secondary effects of such large government spending packages. With global economies still digging out of the covid shock and supply chains struggling to keep up with demand, there is no better time to explore the topic. This paper then …

The Effect Of Income On Healthy Food Options, Hannah M. Doherty

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper explores the effect of income per capita on the number of grocery stores and fast-food franchises in an area. Using a panel dataset to allow for the inclusion of every county in the United States across a period of three years, the results suggest that the income per capita of a county significantly impacts the number of grocery stores and fast-food restaurants in the area. Other factors such as education, age, and attributes regarding time constraints also play an important role in determining the number of grocery stores and fast-food franchises in a location.

Determinants Of Real Median Household Income In The United States Using Time-Series And Panel Data Analysis, Evan Clark

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper’s main objective was to explore the determinants of income inequality using real median household income in the United States. This paper utilizes time series analysis to examine the Gini coefficient, trends in the top 1%’s share of wealth, and the relationship between real median income and varying demographics. The Gini coefficient is a summary measure of income inequality in a country. Income inequality is how unevenly income is distributed throughout a population. The results show that there is a negative correlation between the top 1%’s share of total wealth and the United States Gini rating, and that inequality …

Effectiveness Of Aid: Panel Data Analysis Of Foreign Aid In Africa, Will Bittrich

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the effectiveness of international foreign aid flows into the continent of Africa. The study incorporates economic information into an econometric model to examine the influence of variables including natural resources, types of government, corruption, and education. The influence of gender equality and rule of law in relation to developed countries is factored in through a dependent variable. These findings provide an analysis on the efficiency of foreign aid and its effects on economic development in the region.

Impact Of Corruption On Economic Growth In Central America: A Panel Data Analysis, Ben Bresnee

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possible impact of corruption on economic growth in Central America. This study incorporates information into a model to examine the influence of different factors such as population growth, aid, human capital, gross domestic investment, Corruption, and consumption. This study finds that there is a negative effect of corruption on economic growth in Central America.

A Panel Data Analysis On Income Inequality On Life Expectancy In Asia, Julianna Flaccavento

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper aims to investigate the possibility of interdependence between income and life expectancy in countries across Asia. The study looks at the difference of life expectancies for men, women, and the two genders combined. We also looked at how health could have an impact on the model. We ran a fixed and random effect model on our panel data. We then ran the fixed and random effect model on the countries separated by income levels which we separated into low, middle, and high. The results show that the fixed effect was significant in Asia on both males and females …

The School-To-Prison Pipeline: A Panel Data Analysis, Samuel Guider

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

The objective of this paper is to analyze the potential affect public-school funding has on juvenile incarceration rates in the United States using a panel series data set from 2000 until 2020. The United States has the highest per capita incarceration rates among 114 other members of the Organization of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with 639 individuals for every 100,000 are incarcerated in the United States. This papers aims to use explanatory variables like race (black and white), sex, age, arrests, educational attainment, and rates of school attendance to further help in answering if an increase in public spending …

The Empirical Analysis Of Motherhood Penalty: The Effect Of Having Children On Women’S Career, Madison Henry

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the motherhood penalty as well as the fatherhood bonus. The Motherhood penalty is a phenomenon by which women’s pay decreases once they become mothers. The fatherhood bonus refers to the advantages that working fathers get in terms of pay and perceived competence in comparison with working mothers and childless men. This study incorporates information on the effect a child has on a mother’s income verse that of a father’s, while also measuring how a woman’s income is affected after having a child comparatively to that of a childless woman’s. The results show that the income of Mother’s …

A Panel Data Analysis Of Institutional Quality, Fdi, And Public Debts’ Impact On Economic Growth For Asean, Joshua Kearney

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the effects on economic growth driven by institutional quality, foreign direct investment, and public debt while doing a breakdown and comparison between the first and last five nations to join ASEAN as well as a collective analysis of the complete 10 ASEAN. The model used in this paper focuses primarily on the country’s gross domestic product and the domestic growth seen within ASEAN that utilized public debt to fund governmental agendas.

Panel Data Analysis: Gender Wage Gap And Macroeconomic Factors Impacts, Yuzhe Lin

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper study the relationship between the gender wage gaps and macroeconomic factors that would impact them. The paper use panel data with data collected from OCED and World Bank WDI Indicator. The results show that the difference between female and male life expectancy, import, and female labor participation has a positive impact on the gender wage gap. FDI and Women business and law index score has a negative impact the gender wage gap.

An Empirical Analysis On Disparities In Access To Healthcare In New York City, Olivia Lemire

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Healthcare access varies across demographics. Access to healthcare is a strong determinant of health of individuals in New York City. There are a wide range of disparities in health care access for People of Color. Determinants of insurance include race, sex, education status, marital status, whether an individual has children. White individuals, specifically White females have the highest rate of insurance, while Latinx males have the lowest rate of insurance.

The Effect Of Minimum Wage Increases On Employment Of Teenagers In New England, Felicia O’Reilly

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the relationship between increasing minimum wage and the number of hours that teenagers ages 15-19 work in New England states during the years 2002- 2019. In these years, all New England states have had various minimum wage rates, this paper will use feasible general least squares state-level panel data analysis to see if there is a positive or negative impact on teenage employment due to increases in minimum wage. Data was collected from the Current Population Survey, the American Community Survey, and state census data, and used with an equation derived by Zavodny (2000). State-level panel data …

A Panel Data Analysis Of The Effects Of Macroeconomic Variables On Income Inequality In Latin American Countries, Scott Poretsky

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the relationship between inflation, trade, unemployment, education, and economic growth on income inequality in the South American OECD countries (Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, and Peru). While Argentina, Brazil, and Peru are not official OECD countries, they have a working relationship with OECD and have taken the first steps toward initiation in OECD. The variable that represents income inequality is the Gini Index World Bank estimator, and the variable that represents economic growth is GDP. This paper uses a panel data set from 2006 to 2020. The results of this study show that trade percentage, …

International Integration And Export-Led Growth In Latin America: A Panel Data Analysis, James Titus

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the potential determinants for international integration and effects of export-led growth in Latin American countries to determine the most effective measure of growth in the countries. The study incorporates information asymmetry into a GDP per capita growth model to examine the influence of openness, human capital, export diversity, and more. While examining data from World Bank development indicators, it has been shown that there are at least nine different variables that provide relevant data to create a functional model. The results show that there are many applicable determinants that can be used in the model without over-correlation. …

Granger Causality Of The Relationship Between Tourist Flows And Household Expenditure In Jamaica, Ben Williams

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Keynesians propose that increases in tourist arrivals are associated with an expansion in private spending through the multiplier effect. To test this hypothesis, this study augments a simple consumption function with tourist arrivals and employs the dynamic OLS method to compute the short and long run relationships of the variables. Time series data from 1980-2019 is used to test if tourist arrivals Granger cause household expenditure. The results show that there is no relationship between tourist arrivals and household expenditure in Jamaica and tourist arrivals do not Granger cause household expenditure.

Causal Relationship Between Defense Spending And Economic Growth In Countries With Different Income Levels, Kyle Sampson

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper addresses the relationship between defense spending and economic growth for various economies with different income levels. Using time series annual data, the Granger causality test was conducted. This study looks to determine whether the direction of causality in these economies is different in low−income, middle income, and high−income countries.

Big Data And Inflation Forecasting In Nigeria: A Text Mining Application., M. A. Adebiyi, A. O. Adenuga, T. S. Olusegun, O. O. Mbutor

Economic and Financial Review

The success of monetary policy is substantially predicated on the availability of reliable forecast of inflation. However, the shocks arising from COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war have brought about significant economic uncertainties; thus, necessitating the fine-tuning of existing forecasting models of the Central Bank of Nigeria. This study explores the usefulness of public sentiments obtained using machine learning methods to improve the predictive power of the existing short-term inflation forecasting model (STIF) in Nigeria. Findings indicate that, for all components of inflation, models that include the computed sentiment index perform better in both in-sample and out-sample forecasts than those excluding …

Vector Autoregression Analysis Of The Relationship Between Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, And Exchange Rate To The Jakarta Islamic Index, Ajeng Qurrota A'Yun, Nur Fatwa

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

ABSTRACT

The Indonesian Sharia Capital Market is an interesting thing to study because based on the 2019 Global Islamic Finance Report (GIFR) report, Indonesia is ranked first in the Global Sharia Financial Market. The Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) is the sharia stock index that was first launched on the Indonesian capital market on July 3, 2000 and only consisted of the 30 most liquid Islamic shares listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study will try to uncover how the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia by using Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis and using monthly secondary data from 2012-2019. VAR …

Infrastructure In India's Internal War: A District-Level Analysis Of The Naxalite-Maoist Conflict, Krunal Desai

Undergraduate Economic Review

Since the last few decades of economic liberalization, India has been experiencing a civil conflict threat by communist insurgents known as Naxalites. Because this group desires to separate themselves from the state through violent means, they began occupying themselves in some of the least developed districts in India. Coincidentally, because of low human development, the Government of India created an infrastructure program known as the Backwards Regions Grant Fund (BRGF) that targets a selected set of districts that lack basic infrastructures such as roads, sanitation facilities, and electrical grids. This study aims to question the notion that government assistance should …

Information Cascades In The Classroom: The Relationship Between In-Class Feedback And Course Performance, Amanda C. Cook, James Bland, Andrew Meisner

The Journal of Economics and Politics

Technology is used in undergraduate courses to engage students and provide feedback about understanding. TopHat is an application which displays multiple choice questions mid-class. In this field experiment, we determine if displaying or hiding the distribution of peer responses has an impact on exam scores. When students see peer responses, we observe information cascades on both correct and incorrect answers. Getting an individual TopHat question correct predicts a 1.3 percentage point increase on final exam scores, however we find no difference in predictive power between treatments. Participating in one negative cascade predicts that a student will score approximately five percentage …

Covid-19 Vaccine Disparities And Attitudes, Deonne Cartwright, Meryem Saygili

Pursue: Undergraduate Research Journal

The past couple of years have caused so much uncertainty and grief amidst the global pandemic. The goal of this study is to explore the attitudes behind COVID-19 vaccination to address the cause for vaccine disparities and help minimize health disparities in the United States. The study considers two multivariable regressions in SPSS of the social factors on vaccination status and vaccine confidence. This model studies the relationship between one’s ethnicity, race, education level, education specialization, household income, political ideology, and media source on vaccine confidence and vaccination status on an East Texas college campus. A campus-wide survey was conducted …

Empirical Evidences On Pricing Mechanism In Pakistan: A Duration Analysis, Fauzia Sohail, Ambreen Fatima

Business Review

This study evaluates the price setting behavior across main cities of Pakistan by employing the micro data from retail price survey. The most contemporary research technique of Duration Analysis is employed where survivor functions are estimated by most illustrious nonparametric Kaplan-Meier and Nelson-Aalen Estimators. Hazard Functions for various product groups are also estimated by employing parametric Weibull Hazard Model. Results confirm that perishable food items have shortest duration of one week for most of the spells, where government regulation caused prices to change more frequently. It is found that on average small cities faced lower hazard and thus comparably lesser …

The Impact Of Covid-19 On Stock Market And Exchange Rate Uncertainty In Pakistan, Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed, Kaneez Fatima, Mannan Zaheer

Business Review

This paper examines the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on exchange rate (EXU) and stock market uncertainty (SMU) in Pakistan while controlling for the effects of interest rate and policy interventions by the Government and the Central bank to combat the pandemic. We employ the vector autoregressive (VAR) model over a sample period ranging from February 25, 2020 to May 6, 2021. We find that a shock to total daily coronavirus cases in Pakistan has a positive and significant impact on both the EXU and SMU. However, this impact is short-lived which may be attributed to a timely policy response and …

The Macroeconomic Impacts Of Government Debt In Pakistan, Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed, Kaneez Fatima, Junaid Kamal

Business Review

This paper examines the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis for Pakistan using a vector error-correction model. The sample period extends from June 2002 to January 2020. The results are reported using variance decompositions and impulse response functions. The base model contains six variables and is estimated with 4 lags. We find support for the idea that wealth does not increase as government debt increases; Hence, it proves the fact that economic agents are rational actors and foresee current expansionary actions of the government that result in accumulation of debt as the present value of future taxation that they have to pay and …