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Articles 1 - 7 of 7
Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
Time Series, Unit Roots, And Cointegration: An Introduction, Lonnie K. Stevans
Time Series, Unit Roots, And Cointegration: An Introduction, Lonnie K. Stevans
Lonnie K. Stevans
The econometric literature on unit roots took off after the publication of the paper by Nelson and Plosser (1982) that argued that most macroeconomic series have unit roots and that this is important for the analysis of macroeconomic policy. Yule (1926) suggested that regressions based on trending time series data can be spurious. This problem of spurious correlation was further pursued by Granger and Newbold (1974) and this also led to the development of the concept of cointegration (lack of cointegration implies spurious regression). The pathbreaking paper by Granger (1981), first presented at a conference at the University of Florida …
Income Inequality And Economic Incentives: Is There An Equity-Efficiency Tradeoff?, Lonnie K. Stevans
Income Inequality And Economic Incentives: Is There An Equity-Efficiency Tradeoff?, Lonnie K. Stevans
Lonnie K. Stevans
What is the basis and direction of relationship between income inequality and economic growth? The equity versus efficiency dictum which predicts a positive relationship between inequality, capital formation, and real GDP growth—emphasizes the importance of economic incentives. Subsequently, this was challenged by the incomplete markets and political outcomes theories, because of increasing empirical evidence of an inverse relationship between income inequality and economic growth. In this paper, a further explanation of the basis and nature of the inequality–capital–growth relationship is presented, which emphasizes the divergence between savings and investment. For the United States, over the period 1970–2006, we have found …
Correlates Of Economic Growth In Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach, Lonnie K. Stevans, James P. Neelankavil, Francisco L. Roman
Correlates Of Economic Growth In Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach, Lonnie K. Stevans, James P. Neelankavil, Francisco L. Roman
Lonnie K. Stevans
The inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been found to play a crucial role in the economic growth of receiving countries. Using panel cointegration techniques, this perception was found to be mitigated by an empirical approach that yields different results from previous studies. While the growth in real FDI has an influence on real GDP growth across developing countries in the short-run, year-to-year periods, it does not explain real GDP in the long-run. Rather, it appears to be the economic factors internal to a country that have the most influence on real GDP over time: human capital (measured by …
The Relationship Between Poverty And Economic Growth Revisited, Lonnie K. Stevans, David N. Sessions
The Relationship Between Poverty And Economic Growth Revisited, Lonnie K. Stevans, David N. Sessions
Lonnie K. Stevans
It has been shown in prior research that increased economic growth reduces poverty. Authors have also found that the effect of growth in GDP on poverty growth has either diminished or remained unchanged over time and the 1980s economic expansion in the U.S. had no affect on poverty. Using a formal error-correction model, we find that increases in economic growth are significantly related to reductions in the poverty rate for all families. Specifically, GDP growth was found to have a more pronounced effect on poverty during the expansionary periods of the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. Other findings include …
Unit Roots And Cointegration, Lonnie K. Stevans
Unit Roots And Cointegration, Lonnie K. Stevans
Lonnie K. Stevans
No abstract provided.
Investigating Omitted Variable Bias In Regression Parameter Estimation: A Genetic Algorithm Approach, Lonnie K. Stevans, David N. Sessions
Investigating Omitted Variable Bias In Regression Parameter Estimation: A Genetic Algorithm Approach, Lonnie K. Stevans, David N. Sessions
Lonnie K. Stevans
Bias in regression estimates resulting from the omission of a correlated relevant variable is a well known phenomenon. In this study, we apply a genetic algorithm to estimate the missing variable and, using that estimated variable, demonstrate that significant bias in regression estimates can be substantially corrected with relatively high confidence in effective models. Our interest is restricted to the case of a missing binary indicator variable and the analytical properties of bias and MSE dominance of the resulting dependent error generated vector process. These findings are compared to prior results for the independent error proxy process. Simulations are run …
Aggregate Consumption Spending, The Stock Market, And Asymmetric Error Correction, Lonnie K. Stevans
Aggregate Consumption Spending, The Stock Market, And Asymmetric Error Correction, Lonnie K. Stevans
Lonnie K. Stevans
In this study, we show how changes in wealth resulting from unanticipated changes in the value of equity holdings begin a process whereby households alter consumption growth in order to close the gap between actual and target spending. Because of changing uncertainty or equity price volatility over the stock market cycle, we found the time path of this adjustment to exhibit near random walk behavior during stock market downturns. Conversely, during “boom” periods, e.g. when the value of equities held by households was greater than the threshold, the growth in consumer spending was quick to eliminate the disparity between actual …