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Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
The Effect Of Devaluation On Output In The Egyptian Economy: A Vector Autoregression Analysis, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim, Hala El-Ramly
The Effect Of Devaluation On Output In The Egyptian Economy: A Vector Autoregression Analysis, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim, Hala El-Ramly
Business Administration
The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between exchange rate changes and output in the Egyptian economy. This is the first such study that we know of for Egypt. Employing a Vector Autoregression model, the paper conducts the study using annual data for Egypt over the period 1982-2004. The results of the study indicate that devaluations have an initial contractionary effect on output in Egypt. This contractionary effect lasts for a period of as long as four years before the expected positive effect of the devaluation starts to materialize. Moreover, the study clarifies that real exchange rate …