Econometrics Commons^™

The Economics Of Accountability: Learning From German Holocaust Reparations, Grace I. Gates

Scripps Senior Theses

Drawing on microdata from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe, this study compares European Holocaust survivors who received reparations with similar Europeans who did not. It finds that, decades on, recipients are not systematically better or worse off on core outcomes like life satisfaction, savings, and debt. This is consistent with the argument that reparations restore parity rather than create new advantages. Where differences emerge, they point to stabilization in more vulnerable settings (e.g., lower likelihood of high debt in parts of Eastern Europe). The main takeaway from effective reparations is applicable to the United States debate: …

Forecasting The Unpredictable: The Bullwhip Effect In The Toy Industry, Mannat Sethi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy …

Macroeconomic Resilience And Sentiment Dynamics In The Global Luxury Fashion Industry, Mehr Gupta

CMC Senior Theses

The global luxury fashion industry is often viewed as a sector where broad economic conditions intersect with individual spending behavior. Yet despite this common assumption, it remains unclear whether macroeconomic fluctuations meaningfully shape luxury firms’ financial performance. This thesis examines the relationship between four key macroeconomic indicators - consumer sentiment, disposable income, unemployment, and exchange rates - and firm-level quarterly revenue for twelve publicly listed luxury companies from the early 2000s through 2024. Firm financial data from S&P Capital IQ are matched with macroeconomic measures from the Federal Reserve (FRED), and the analysis employs a two-way fixed-effects framework with firm …

Factors Correlated With State-Level Variation In Grocery Consumption Changes During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Sun Young Byun

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I employ a two-part empirical strategy to explore the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on grocery consumption across U.S. states. First, I use the United States Department of Agriculture's Weekly Retail Food Sales data from 2018-2023 to estimate a time-series panel model. I use the results to test three hypotheses regarding state-level variation in consumption changes and impacts in the initial pandemic period, the remaining pandemic period, and the post-pandemic period. Second, I use the estimated state-level effects as dependent variables in cross-sectional regressions to test three hypotheses linking variation in state-level consumption patterns to economic, demographic, …

From Static Λ To Moving Penalties: Dynamic Regularization In Mean-Variance Portfolio Choice, Ariel Santiago

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis evaluates whether dynamically tuned weight penalties can improve high-dimensional mean-variance portfolio choice. Classical Markowitz portfolios perform poorly when the number of assets is large relative to the data, because small estimation errors in means and covariances can generate extreme, fragile allocations. A common remedy is to regularize the weights using L1 (lasso), L2 (ridge), or elastic-net penalties, but these are typically chosen once and held fixed. Using monthly excess returns on the 48 Fama-French industry portfolios from January 2010 to June 2025, this thesis compares penalized mean-variance and minimum-variance strategies under long-only and long-short constraints, with and without …

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

Volatility Modeling With An Application To Risk Parity Portfolios, Kenneth Hou

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies volatility modeling in the context of risk parity portfolio construction. I compare three risk parity portfolios that differ only in their underlying volatility model: a historical covariance baseline, a Bayesian stochastic volatility model, and a GRU–GARCH hybrid neural network. Using daily returns on Kenneth French’s five industry portfolios from January 2016 through December 2025, I construct monthly rebalanced portfolios under each model, with the SV and GRU forecasts embedded in hybrid covariance matrices that combine forecasted volatilities with rolling historical correlations. The results document a divergence between forecast accuracy and portfolio performance: the SV model is the …

The Zoom Town Effect Of Remote Work On Rural Housing Markets, Luc R. Fabing

CMC Senior Theses

I study the impact of remote work on rural housing markets, highlighting the moderating role of outdoor recreation amenities. Using panel data from the American Community Survey and Zillow (2010–2024), I employ a Two-Way Fixed Effects model and a shift-share instrumental variable strategy to estimate the effect of work-from-home (WFH) rates on home prices. I find that higher WFH rates are strongly associated with higher home prices in high-recreation counties, but that the association is weak or negative in counties lacking significant recreation amenities. These findings point to amenity migration as a key mechanism through which remote work impacts rural …

From Collective Punishment To Collective Action, Samuel N. Johnson-Saeger

CMC Senior Theses

Regime change may be sought in two primary ways, absent a turn to internal or external violence: through nonviolent resistance, from within, and sanctions, from abroad. This paper is about how those two pathways are intertwined. I challenge two different strands of the existing literature. First, I show that Liou et al. (2022)'s finding that sanctions increase the predicted probability of nonviolent resistance movement progress is subject to substantial upward bias from country heterogeneity. Incorporating country fixed effects, I show that sanctions, on average, have no statistically significant effect on resistance outcomes. Second, I challenge Chenoweth and Stephan (2008)'s argument …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

Electric Commuter Rail Access In Residential Communities: A Hedonic Analysis Case Study Of Nonmarket Value Creation, Catherine A. Sunding

Scripps Senior Theses

This study quantifies the price impact on houses of a new electric commuter rail line outside of Denver, Colorado. I find a negative price impact corresponding to increased accessibility and proximity of homes to the rail stations due to the negative externalities associated with the track. I also discover an even larger negative price impact of the rail stations in the years before the stations opened to the public, indicating possible endogeneity in the location of the rail line. I attempt to account for this endogeneity using instrumental variable analysis due to a limitation of house pricing data before 2016.

Reporting And Underreporting Of Sex Harassment In United States Public Schools: A Mixed Methods Analysis, Erica S. Matthisen

Scripps Senior Theses

Using mixed methods, I assess the factors that contribute to the underreporting of sex harassment in elementary and secondary educational environments. I first use regional Title IX data to assess the impacts of Title IX resource access on several indicator variables, finding a positive impact on allegations and discipline cases when a harassment/bullying policy was made available online. Next, I seek to identify other factors that contribute to reporting or underreporting. To that end, I conduct organizational analysis and informational interviews. From the organizational analysis, I identify factors that contribute to the normalization and underreporting of sex harassment and strategies …

The Effect Of Regime Type On Development Outcomes In Bangladesh, Simar Malhotra

Scripps Senior Theses

Bangladesh has been characterized by a turbulent political state since gaining its independence in 1971, moving back and forth between a democracy and autocracy. With this, they have also experienced immense gains in development over the last thirty years, especially within health, education, and female empowerment. This thesis exploits Bangladesh’s unique regime-switching setting to measure the impact of a shift from autocracy to democracy on child health, maternal health, and women’s autonomy within a single-country context. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program, the analysis finds that a shift from an autocracy to a democracy increases the …

Determinants Of Remote Suitability Of Jobs And Residential Distance From The Workplace After The Covid-19 Pandemic, Abizer Mamnoon

CMC Senior Theses

Immediately before the COVID-19 pandemic, workers performed 14% of their paid hours from home, but this figure increased to 38% after the pandemic (Chen et al. 2023). This thesis contributes to our understanding of the determinants of remote work and the factors affecting how far an individual lives from the workplace in the post-pandemic period.

I use 1.95 million observations of worker-specific LinkedIn data from August 2023. I construct a measure of remote suitability using Dingel and Neiman’s (2020) method to assign each job title a remote suitability score based on the associated occupation. I use a Tobit regression to …

The Solar Power Of Pricing: Does Electricity Pricing Policy Drive Residential Solar Demand?, Talia De Beer

CMC Senior Theses

Solar energy has emerged as a pivotal renewable energy source, experiencing significant growth in the United States over the past two decades. As policymakers continue to develop and refine the best methods to incentivize solar adoption while reflecting true costs and potential equity concerns, this paper seeks to evaluate the impact of changes in solar pricing policies on residential solar installations. Employing a difference-in-differences regression model, this study examines the effects of policy changes on both the system capacity and number of installations of adoption in three Western states that have transitioned away from traditional Net Energy Metering (NEM) policies–Arizona, …

China’S Economic Slowdown: How Does It Affect New Zealand’S Economy?, Haven Qin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of China’s economic slowdown on New Zealand’s economy, focusing on sector-specific linkages across real estate, the stock market, exports, and import prices. As a small open economy, New Zealand’s deep integration with global markets makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks from its largest trading partner. Employing OLS regression models and monthly economic data, this study reveals the nuanced pathways through which China’s economic conditions influence New Zealand. Key findings include the sensitivity of New Zealand’s housing market to Chinese property investments and Chinese stock market performance, the influence of Chinese financial market performance on …

When Consumers See It Coming: How Anticipation Affects The Domestic Cost Of Tariffs, Pierce D. Sanderson

CMC Senior Theses

Tariffs implemented by President Trump in 2018 were unexpected and significant, incurring large costs to U.S. consumers. This study examines the effect of tariff anticipation on price, quantity, and value effect on imports in the United States. Specifically, it focuses on tariffs implemented during Obama’s second term in office from 2012 to 2016 on the automotive, technology, and manufacturing industries. The findings present a significant divergence from the literature on the effects of 2018 tariffs, finding a near full pass-through of tariffs to foreign exporter prices rather than U.S. consumers. Specifically, a one percent increase in tariffs resulted in a …

Batteries For Grid Stability: The Impact Of Utility-Scale Battery Installation On Electricity Price Volatility In California, Hannah Vestring

CMC Senior Theses

As renewable energy penetration increases, driven largely by solar, electricity prices have become increasingly volatile due to the intermittency of supply, increasing the need for price stabilizing interventions. This study examines the impact of cumulative additions of utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) capacity on real-time market (RTM) electricity price volatility within the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) between 2020 and 2024, taking a long-term, system-wide perspective on storage deployment. Using an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression framework, the analysis finds that cumulative BESS capacity is significantly associated with reduced price volatility in the benchmark model, with results remaining robust …

Clutch Or Comfortable? How Franchise Tags Influence Qb Performance In The Nfl, Justin Edwards

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The National Football League (NFL) has a type of contract known as the Franchise Tag. The Franchise Tag is a one-year contractual extension often used when a player and a team cannot come to terms regarding the details of a contract extension. Usually, the player expects to be paid more than the organization can afford that year due to restrictions imposed by the salary cap. Because of this, Franchise-Tagged players tend to have a greater incentive to perform well in hopes of being signed into a long-term contract. My findings show that the incentive of future earnings and job …

Llms Can’T Be Trusted For Financial Advice, Gary N. Smith

Pomona Economics

ChatGPT and other large language models (LLMs) do not understand the text they input and output. When three prominent LLMs were tested with 11 financial-decision prompts, the LLM responses were seemingly authoritative but riddled with arithmetic and critical-thinking mistakes. Financial planners are unlikely to be replaced by LLMs anytime soon.

Effects Of The Homegrown Player Rule In The English Premier League: A Comprehensive Analysis Of Squad Composition, Market Values, And Wages, Jiho "Brian" Jun

Pitzer Senior Theses

This paper uses theoretical frameworks from economics and sports management to investigate the transformative effects of the Homegrown Player Rule on English Premier League squad dynamics, market valuations, and wage structures. The study examines the evolution of homegrown player distribution across clubs from the rule’s implementation in 2010 to the most recent season in 2023. My analysis of market values and wages finds no evidence that the rule leads to possible market value and wage rate disparities between homegrown and non-homegrown players. Subsequent research shows evidence of a decrease in the real wage rate of homegrown players over time, contrasting …

Improving American Men's Quality Of Life By Economically Empowering American Women, Margot Rosenblatt

Scripps Senior Theses

In this paper, I explore the relationship between women’s economic empowerment and men’s quality of life in the United States. I created an index of women’s economic empowerment based on county-level data on labor force participation rates, rates of pay, teen birth rates, and families in which a woman is the primary income earner. I then created an index of men’s quality of life based on financial, physical, and mental health indicators. Adjusting for income, dominant industry type, age, population density, race variables, and environmental factors, I found a statistically significant positive correlation between women’s economic empowerment and men’s quality …

Electric Vehicles: Exploring The Granularity In California Zip Codes, Hans Melvern Kasim

CMC Senior Theses

This paper studies a number of factors that affect electric vehicle (EV) sales in California. In comparison to previous papers, this paper examines EV sales at a higher granularity by using zip code level data. My model utilizes a panel fixed effect to examine factors like income, energy prices, commute time, number of chargers and tax rebates. The results show that the number of chargers (specifically DC fast), commute time, and tax rebates have the greatest statistically significant effects on EV sales in California. Furthermore, I utilize an empirical specification - a conditional logit model accounting for zip code fixed …

Divided By Design? Urban Renewal’S Differential Impacts On Economic Outcomes By Race, Derik Suria

CMC Senior Theses

I study city-level effects of the federally and state-sponsored urban renewal program that aimed to improve living conditions for residents in blighted areas and slums. I use an interdisciplinary approach to estimate urban renewal effects on measures of income, property value, poverty, and employment. I first replicate the methodology and estimates of urban renewal effects on city outcomes in 1980 from Slum Clearance and Urban Renewal in the United States (Collins and Shester 2013). I extend this research by looking at a longer time horizon (1990, 2000, 2010) and incorporating race-based outcomes. From 1980 to 2010, estimated effects on property …

Driven By Change: The Impact Of Macroeconomic Shifts And Covid-19 On New Vehicle Sales, Jackson Aldrich

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic factors and the COVID-19 pandemic on new vehicle sales. In order to address these two topics, a two-pronged approach was used with separate regression models. The macroeconomic variables include monthly supply of new homes, CPI for urban public transportation, unemployment rate, disposable personal income, inflation expectation, consumer sentiment, average gas prices, and total vehicle miles traveled which were regressed on total vehicle sales from 1978-2022. The regression results confirmed and supported current literature and highlighted the importance of the housing market and unemployment rate on new vehicle sales. The COVID-19 pandemic model variables …

Determinants And Effects Of Offset Usage Within The California Cap-And-Trade System – A Firm-Level Analysis, Adarsh Srinivasan

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the determinants of the usage of carbon offsets within the California cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gas emissions. It also investigates the relationship between a firm’s investment in offsets and its financials for publicly traded companies. Entity-level data from 2013 to 2020 was used, which was sourced from the California Air Resources Board. Multiple regression analysis was used to investigate factors that correlated with offset usage and whether offset usage correlated with EBITDA. Dummy variables indicating geographic location and economic sector of each entity were used as controls. The analysis found that total covered emissions and privately owned …

Conspicuous Wellness: How Acquired Identities Affect Conspicuous Consumption, Katherine S. Eu

Scripps Senior Theses

This research provides evidence that individuals will conspicuously consume based on their acquired identities, which parallels similar conclusions drawn for conspicuous consumption based on ascribed identities. Using data from 653 respondents, I found positive marginal effects of the “that girl” wellness identity on product choices, accounting for an individual’s potential higher willingness-to-pay, demographics, and speed of making product choices. I conclude that the more an individual associates themselves with an identity, the higher the likelihood of choosing products which align and signal membership in an identity subculture.

An Analysis On How Housing Status Influences The Gut-Brain-Axis For Populations In And Around The Skid Row Area Of Los Angeles, California, Mauricio Guzman

Pitzer Senior Theses

Over recent years, the “microbiota-gut-brain axis” (MGBA) has garnered significant attention in the scientific community. Specifically, perturbations of the MGBA via stress and dietary intake have been linked to a wide-range of diseases including gastrointestinal diseases, metabolic diseases, mood disorders, and cognitive diseases. However, most studies have been solely conducted on mice models and have yet to consider the more complex, intricate systems that impact the human body. In addition, researchers have yet to consider the populations who may be most susceptible to chronic stress and negative dietary outcomes. Drawing from the fields of medical sociology, non-invasive human biology, and …

Esg Scores As A Measure Of Risk: The Relationship Between Environmental, Social, And Corporate Governance Ratings And The Financial Performance Of U.S. Oil And Gas Companies, Lauren Kim

Scripps Senior Theses

This study investigates the association between ESG (environmental, social, corporate governance) scores on the financial performance of U.S. oil and gas companies, an industry facing significant ESG-related pressures. ESG scores evaluate a firm’s environmental impacts, social responsibility, and corporate governance practices and can be used as a form of evaluating a firm’s risk mitigation efforts. However, there is not sufficient evidence to conclude that there exists a relationship, positive or negative, between ESG scores and firm performance in this industry. Overall, the findings of this study highlight the growing interest in ESG investing and is useful for investors and firms …

An Investigation On Wage Penalties: The Effect Of Foreign-Born Status On Employee Wages, Salaries, And Incomes In The United States And Canada, Lucy C. Dustman

Scripps Senior Theses

This paper investigates whether there is a wage penalty that negatively affects foreign-born employees in the United States and Canada, addressing the following two questions: (1) Does being a foreign-born employee result in a wage penalty in the United States and Canada? And if so, (2) How does this penalty differ across the two countries over time? With data collected from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMs), four separate multiple linear regression models are estimated to compare the presence of wage penalties across various industries and occupations. These analyses cover the following comparisons: the United States in 1990 and …