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Articles 1 - 12 of 12
Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
Big Data And Inflation Forecasting In Nigeria: A Text Mining Application., M. A. Adebiyi, A. O. Adenuga, T. S. Olusegun, O. O. Mbutor
Big Data And Inflation Forecasting In Nigeria: A Text Mining Application., M. A. Adebiyi, A. O. Adenuga, T. S. Olusegun, O. O. Mbutor
Economic and Financial Review
The success of monetary policy is substantially predicated on the availability of reliable forecast of inflation. However, the shocks arising from COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war have brought about significant economic uncertainties; thus, necessitating the fine-tuning of existing forecasting models of the Central Bank of Nigeria. This study explores the usefulness of public sentiments obtained using machine learning methods to improve the predictive power of the existing short-term inflation forecasting model (STIF) in Nigeria. Findings indicate that, for all components of inflation, models that include the computed sentiment index perform better in both in-sample and out-sample forecasts than those excluding …
Pass-Through Effects Of Standing Facilities On Bank Interest Rates In Nigeria, Victor Ezeora Eleam, Chinyelu Gloria Ekwom, Chibueze Charles Ariolu, Chukwubuzo Jackson Umebali, Adewale Timothy Balogun
Pass-Through Effects Of Standing Facilities On Bank Interest Rates In Nigeria, Victor Ezeora Eleam, Chinyelu Gloria Ekwom, Chibueze Charles Ariolu, Chukwubuzo Jackson Umebali, Adewale Timothy Balogun
Economic and Financial Review
The paper investigates the pattern of pass-through effects of standing facilities rates on commercial bank retail interest rates in Nigeria. Monthly data spanning 2007:06 to 2019:12 and the Gregory-Hansen cointegration method that accounts for structural breaks are used in the empirical analysis. The adjustment parameters for the standing deposit and lending facilities are found to be significant, but with a low speed of adjustment. This provides some evidence on the nature of the interest rate channel of monetary policy transmission in the country. Furthermore, the study could not confirm asymmetry in the adjustment of retail rates to their long-run equilibria. …
Budget Deficit And Economic Growth In Nigeria, A. D. Umaru, H. M. Aliero, M. Abubakar
Budget Deficit And Economic Growth In Nigeria, A. D. Umaru, H. M. Aliero, M. Abubakar
Economic and Financial Review
This paper examines the relationship between budget deficit and economic growth in Nigeria, from a linear and non-linear perspective, using annual time series data from 1981 to 2019. The linear model, which involves the use of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, was compared with a non-linear analysis, using a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model. The ARDL analysis reveals that the growth of national output is positively driven by the persistent budget deficit in Nigeria. This was substantiated by the TAR model which indicates that though budget deficit drives economic growth in Nigeria, the positive relationship holds only if the deficit …
Macroeconomic Instability Index And Threshold For The Nigerian Economy, B. A. G. Amoo, J. K. Achua, N. P. Audu, B. Hamma
Macroeconomic Instability Index And Threshold For The Nigerian Economy, B. A. G. Amoo, J. K. Achua, N. P. Audu, B. Hamma
Economic and Financial Review
The paper employed statistical algorithms, factor analysis and threshold autoregressive models to address the gaps in management of macroeconomic instability in Nigeria. Using data spanning 2010q1 to 2017q2, the findings showed that the values of macroeconomic instability index (MII) fluctuated between 0.316 and 0.609, with a threshold of 0.461. This showed an inverse relationship between macroeconomic instability and economic growth. This framework could serve as a mechanism to gauge early warning signal of instability in Nigeria.
Unofficial Dollarisation And Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Y. Adamu
Unofficial Dollarisation And Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Y. Adamu
Economic and Financial Review
This paper examined the impact of dollarisation on monetary policy in Nigeria, using monthly data spanning 2002 to 2016. The paper adopted the conventional IMF proxy for dollarisation and traced its reactions to changing monetary policy stance. Using the vector autoregression (VAR) model and interbank rate as an indicator of monetary policy stance, the results showed that the size of dollarisation could influence the outcome of monetary policy, though the impact was small. This was evident from the output equations, that inflation did not respond in the first month and responded negatively in the second month. However, from the third …
Determination Of Optimal Foreign Exchange Reserves For Nigeria, M. Tule, E. Egbuna,, S. Abdusalam, A. Oduyemi
Determination Of Optimal Foreign Exchange Reserves For Nigeria, M. Tule, E. Egbuna,, S. Abdusalam, A. Oduyemi
Economic and Financial Review
The study examined the optimal level of international reserves for Nigeria that is capable of absorbing a shock similar to that experienced during the 2007/2009 Global economic crisis. Using, generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), vector autoregressive (VAR) estimation techniques and normalised Johansen cointegrated equation, and setting the maximum and minimum output losses for the entire period, the study found a positive relationship between the odds of default on sovereign debt and fiscal deficit to GDP ratio, short-term debt to reserves ratio and volatility in portfolio investments. In minimising the Bank's cost of holding reserves, the study found that the Nigerian …
Interest Rate Dynamics And Real Output Behaviour In Nigeria: A Simulation Analysis, S. Rapu, G. Sanni, D. Penzin, N. Nkang, P. Golit, H. Okafor, E. Ibi
Interest Rate Dynamics And Real Output Behaviour In Nigeria: A Simulation Analysis, S. Rapu, G. Sanni, D. Penzin, N. Nkang, P. Golit, H. Okafor, E. Ibi
Economic and Financial Review
The declining output growth observed from the second quarter of 2014, which led to calls for a more expansionary monetary policy despite rising inflationary pressure, necessitated a reassessment of the impact of interest rate on real output growth in Nigeria. Using a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model and quarterly data from 2000:Q4 to 2015:Q3, the effect of monetary policy transmission (interest rate dynamics) on real output performance was estimated. Although results of the simulation analysis were somewhat mixed, those of the impulse response functions indicated that positive shocks to monetary policy rate (MPR) produced a negative and small impact on …
Savings, Net Foreign Assets And Current Accounts Dynamics In Subsaharan Africa, A. I. Adeleke, W. Ohemeng, K. Ofori-Boateng
Savings, Net Foreign Assets And Current Accounts Dynamics In Subsaharan Africa, A. I. Adeleke, W. Ohemeng, K. Ofori-Boateng
Economic and Financial Review
A profile of the current account balance in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) shows that many countries in the region have consistently experienced current account deficits, dwindling savings and diminishing net foreign assets. These macroeconomic variables convey important information to economic agents about the health of a nation. The relationships among these three important variables in terms of short-run and long-run dynamics are cloudy in the literature. Therefore, this study examined the long-run and short-run dynamics of savings, net foreign assets and current account balance in subSaharan Africa. Utilising panel econometric techniques with annual data from 38 countries in SSA for the …
The Impact Of Lending Rate On The Manufacturing Sector In Nigeria, D. B. Akpan, D. J. Yilkudi, D. C. Opiah
The Impact Of Lending Rate On The Manufacturing Sector In Nigeria, D. B. Akpan, D. J. Yilkudi, D. C. Opiah
Economic and Financial Review
The study investigates the impact of lending rate on output of the manufacturing subsector using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and annual data from 1981- 2014. The empirical results indicated that high lending rate had negative impact on manufacturing output in the long-run. This suggests that increase in lending rate undermines manufacturing output, thus retarding growth in the real sector. Specifically, the estimates revealed that a 1.0 per cent increase in lending rate reduces manufacturing output by 0.03 per cent. The study, therefore, recommends the implementation of investment friendly policies that narrows the lending rate by the deposit money …
Building Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models For Monetary Policy Analysis, Charles N. O. Mordi, Michael A. Adebiyi
Building Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models For Monetary Policy Analysis, Charles N. O. Mordi, Michael A. Adebiyi
Economic and Financial Review
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are powerful tools that provide a coherent framework for policy discussion and analysis. In principle, they can help to identify sources of fluctuations, answer questions about structural changes, help to forecast and predict the effect of policy changes, and perform counterfactual experiments. Against this background, this paper aims at providing an insightful discussion on DSGE models by developing a simplified version of the models to explain the behavior of key macroeconomic variables in Nigeria namely: the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP), headline inflation, exchange rate and the monetary policy rate. The estimated …
An Econometric Analysis Of The Determinants Of Investments By Insurance Companies In Nigeria, S. E. Omoruyi
An Econometric Analysis Of The Determinants Of Investments By Insurance Companies In Nigeria, S. E. Omoruyi
Economic and Financial Review
The paper is divided into two parts. Part I discusses the concept of financial intermediation. Part II outlines the model of determinants of investments by the insurance industry and summarises the main findings and policy recommendations of the study.
Electricity Consumption In Nigeria: An Econometric Analysis, Sam Chuka Ljeh
Electricity Consumption In Nigeria: An Econometric Analysis, Sam Chuka Ljeh
Economic and Financial Review
The purpose of this study is to identify the variables that influence electricity consumption, specify the correct relationships between these variables and electricity consumption and provide statistical evidence of these relationships in Nigeria.