Econometrics Commons^™

Exploring The Relationship Between Agricultural Electricity Consumption And Output: New Evidence From Turkish Regional Data, Eyup Dogan, Maamar Sebri, Berna Turkekul

Maamar Sebri

Inference Of Self-Exciting Jumps In Prices And Volatility Using High-Frequency Measures, Worapree Ole Maneesoonthorn, Catherine S. Forbes, Gael M. Martin

Worapree Ole Maneesoonthorn

Underdogs Are Man’S Best Friend: A Test Of Football Market Efficiency, Ladd Kochman, Randy Goodwin

Ladd Kochman

Two mechanical betting rules that had exposed biases in previous studies were applied to National Football League games for the five consecutive seasons ending with the 2003 Super Bowl. Although bets on home teams produced only break-even results, wagers on underdogs posed a serious challenge to the efficient market hypothesis. One possible explanation is that favorites are no less “public” in the minds of bettors than IBM, GE, and the like are public in the minds of investors and may therefore be the victims of inflated expectations and point spreads.

Disentangling Disadvantage: Can We Distinguish Good Teaching From Classroom Composition?, Gema Zamarro, John Engberg, Juan Saavedra, Jennifer Steele

Gema Zamarro

This article investigates the use of teacher value-added estimates to assess the distribution of effective teaching across students of varying socioeconomic disadvantage in the presence of classroom composition effects. We examine, via simulations, how accurately commonly used teacher value-added estimators recover the rank correlation between true and estimated teacher effects and a parameter representing the distribution of effective teaching. We consider various scenarios of teacher assignment, within-teacher variability in classroom composition, the importance of classroom com- position effects, and the presence of student unobserved heterogeneity. No single model recovers without bias estimates of the distribution parameter in all the scenarios …

Panel Data Models With Grouped Factor Structures Under Unknown Group Membership, Tomohiro Ando, Jushan Bai

Tomohiro Ando

No abstract provided.

Prices And Social Behavior: Evidence From Adult Smoking In Canadian Aboriginal Communities, Jesse A. Matheson

Jesse A Matheson

An Analysis Of South-Eastern European Stock Markets: Evidence On Cointegration And Portfolio Diversification Benefits, Francesco Guidi, Mehmet Ugur

Francesco Guidi

No abstract provided.

Alternative Estimators Of Cointegrating Parameters In Models With Non-Stationary Data: An Application To Us Export Demand, James Forest, Paul Turner

James J Forest

This paper presents Monte Carlo simulations which compare the empirical performance of two alternative single equation estimators of the equilibrium parameters in a dynamic relationship. The estimators considered are Stock and Watson’s dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator and Bewley’s transformation of the general autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that the Bewley transformation produces a lower mean-square error as well as superior serial correlation properties even with lower truncation lags for the lagged variables included in the estimation equation. An application is then provided which examines the nature of the equilibrium relationship between aggregate US exports, world trade …

Dynamic Cointegration And Diversification Benefits Among The Greater China, The Uk, And The Us Stock Markets, Francesco Guidi, Christos Savva

Francesco Guidi

No abstract provided.

Resource Allocation, Affluence And Deadweight Loss When Relative Consumption Matters, Jesse A. Matheson, B. Curtis Eaton

Jesse A Matheson

Time Series, Unit Roots, And Cointegration: An Introduction, Lonnie K. Stevans

Lonnie K. Stevans

The econometric literature on unit roots took off after the publication of the paper by Nelson and Plosser (1982) that argued that most macroeconomic series have unit roots and that this is important for the analysis of macroeconomic policy. Yule (1926) suggested that regressions based on trending time series data can be spurious. This problem of spurious correlation was further pursued by Granger and Newbold (1974) and this also led to the development of the concept of cointegration (lack of cointegration implies spurious regression). The pathbreaking paper by Granger (1981), first presented at a conference at the University of Florida …

Public Policy Special Edition On Local Government, Michael Kortt, Bligh Grant, Brian Dollery

Bligh Grant

No abstract provided.

Regional And Local Tensions: The Role Of Shared Services, Michael Kortt, Brian Dollery, Bligh Grant

Bligh Grant

No abstract provided.

Weak-Form Market Efficiency And Calendar Anomalies For Eastern Europe Equity Markets, Francesco Guidi, Rakesh Gupta, Suneel Maheshwari

Suneel K. Maheshwari

No abstract provided.

Selection Bias In College Admissions Test Scores, Jesse Rothstein, Melissa Clark, Diane Schanzenbach

Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach

Data from college admissions tests can provide a valuable measure of student achievement, but the non-representativeness of test-takers is an important concern. We examine selectivity bias in both state-level and school-level SAT and ACT averages. The degree of selectivity may differ importantly across and within schools, and across and within states. To identify within-state selectivity, we use a control function approach that conditions on scores from a representative test. Estimates indicate strong selectivity of test-takers in "ACT states," where most college- bound students take the ACT, and much less selectivity in SAT states. To identify within- and between-school selectivity, we …

Probabilistic Forecasts Of Volatility And Its Risk Premia, Worapree Maneesoonthorn, Gael Martin, Catherine Forbes, Simone Grose

Worapree Ole Maneesoonthorn

No abstract provided.

Economic Freedom And Fiscal Performance: A Regression Analysis Of Indices Of Economic Freedom On Per Capita Gdp, Jason Ockey

Jason R Ockey

This paper explores whether different forms of economic freedom drive fiscal performance. We also seek to determine which specific measurements of economic freedom have the most statistically significant impacts. Though the results of our analysis show that economic freedom does impact levels of per capita GDP, the interpretation of these results is more complicated. Because some indices of economic freedom have negative effects on per capita GDP or are statistically insignificant, it is important to note that simply generally increasing a country’s overall level of economic freedom will not necessarily spur economic growth or increase fiscal performance. This paper does …

Women’S Decision Making: A Contextual Assessment, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

No abstract provided.

Are Ceos Expected Utility Maximizers?, John List, Charles Mason

Charles F Mason

Are individuals expected utility maximizers? This question represents much more than academic curiosity. In a normative sense, at stake are the fundamental underpinnings of the bulk of the last half-century’s models of choice under uncertainty. From a positive perspective, the ubiquitous use of benefit-cost analysis across government agencies renders the expected utility maximization paradigm literally the only game in town. In this study, we advance the literature by exploring CEO’s preferences over small probability, high loss lotteries. Using undergraduate students as our experimental control group, we find that both our CEO and student subject pools exhibit frequent and large departures …

Knowledge, Capabilities And Manufacturing Innovation: A Us-Europe Comparison, Stephen Roper, Jan Youtie, Philip Shapira, Andrea Fernandez-Ribas

Andrea Fernandez-Ribas

This paper presents a comparative analysis of factors contributing to the innovation performance of manufacturing firms in Georgia (USA), Wales (UK), the West Midlands (UK), and Catalonia (Spain). Enabled by comparable survey data, multivariate probit models are developed to estimate how various types of firms’ innovative activities are influenced by links to external knowledge sources, internal resources, absorptive capacity, and public innovation support. The results suggest the potential for mutual learning. For the European study regions there are insights about how universities in Georgia support innovation. For Georgia and Catalonia there are lessons from UK firms about better capturing potential …

A Direct Monte Carlo Approach For Bayesian Analysis Of The Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model, Tomohiro Ando, Arnold Zellner

Tomohiro Ando

No abstract provided.

The Journey To Safety: Conflict-Driven Migration Flows In Colombia, Gianfranco Piras, Nancy Lozano-Gracia, Geoffrey Hewings, Ana Maria Ibanez

Gianfranco Piras

No abstract provided.

Decomposing Consumer Wealth Effects: Evidence On The Role Of Real Estate Assets Following The Wealth Cycle Of 1990-2002, Michael Donihue, Andriy Avramenko

Michael R Donihue

During the period from 1990 to 2002, U.S. households experienced a dramatic wealth cycle, induced by a 369 percent appreciation in the value of real per capita liquid stock-market assets, followed by a 55 percent decline. However, despite predictions at the time by some analysts relying on life-cycle models of consumption, consumer spending in real terms continued to rise throughout this period. Using data that include the period from 1990 to 2005, traditional approaches to estimating macroeconomic wealth effects on consumption confront two puzzles: (i) econometric evidence of a stable cointegrating relationship among consumption, income, and wealth is weak at …

Inflation Monitor, Muhammad Arby, Fida Hussain, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

Extract:
Although inflationary pressures persisted in the economy for the second year in a row, the headline inflation fell to 7.6 percent year-on-year in June 2006 that was 1 percentage point less than inflation in corresponding month last year.1 The inflation containment was more visible in the last six months of FY06 as compared to first six months (Jul 05 to Dec 05): the average CPI inflation during the first half of the year was 8.4 percent which declined to 7.4 percent in the second half primarily due to fall in food inflation. Inflation measured by sensitive price indicator also …

Evaluating The Long-Run Impacts Of The 9/11 Terrorist Attacks On U.S. Airline Travel, Scott Blunk, David Clark, James Mcgibany

David E. Clark

Although the US airline industry began 2001 with 24 consecutive profitable quarters, including net profits in 2000 totaling $7.9 billion, the impact of the 9/11 event on the industry was substantial. Whereas the recession that began in early 2001 signaled the end of profitability, the 9/11 terrorist attacks pushed the industry into financial crisis after air travel dropped 20% over the September-December 2001 period compared to the same period in 2000. Given the decline in domestic air travel, an important question is whether the detrimental impact of the attacks was temporary or permanent. That is, did airline travel return to …

Dynamics Of Energy Consumption, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

Extract:
Dynamics of Energy Consumption Pakistan has been facing severe imbalances in energy demand and supply for the last couple of decades. During early 1980s domestic supply of energy was fulfilling almost 86 percent of total domestic energy demand; a gap of 14 percent was being filled by imports. However, the demand – supply gap started increasing since then and reached to almost 47 percent by the year 2000 (see Figure S2.1).

Incomplete Compensation And Migration Behavior: Has Anything Changed Between 1990 And 2000?, David Clark, William Herrin, Thomas Knapp, Nancy White

David E. Clark

Spatial equilibrium models rely on migration to arbitrage away differences in utility across locations net of moving costs, where remaining differences in wages and rents reflect the compensating differentials related to site-specific amenities. Recent refinements to the spatial equilibrium model focus upon the prospect of disequilibrium in amenity markets. Amenity market disequilibrium implies over- or under-compensation (incomplete compensation) across some locations, which suggests a role for these factors in subsequent migration. This paper follows the theoretical and empirical approach of Clark, Herrin, Knapp, and White (2003). An intercity wage regression is estimated where fixed effects capture the impact of site …

Economic Growth, Saving And Investment, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

Extract:
Despite an evident slowdown in major economies around the global amidst a sustained rise in international oil prices, the domestic economy surpassed its growth target by a wide margin for the third consecutive year, witnessing a growth rate of 8.4 percent in FY05, the highest during the last two decades (see Figure 2.1 & 2.2).

Macroeconomic And Financial Sector Comparison With Saarc And Asean Countries, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

Extract:
Two distinct regional associations, SAARC and ASEAN, comprise over seventeen different economies of Asia. These economies differ from each other in terms of their age, size and economic performance. However, some comparisons can be drawn between these intra-regional economies on the basis of economic and financial performance for a uniform period of observation, spanning from 1990 to 2003.1 This chapter discusses the financial sector indicators of the SAARC and ASEAN countries under the framework of macroeconomic performance, with the objective of assessing the level of Pakistan’s performance in comparison with these countries.

Financial Sector Deepening And Economic Growth In Pakistan, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

No abstract provided.