Econometrics Commons^™

Inversion Copulas From Nonlinear State Space Models With An Application To Inflation Forecasting, Michael S. Smith, Worapree Ole Maneesoonthorn

Michael Stanley Smith

Time Series Copulas For Heteroskedastic Data, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith, Worapree Maneesoonthorn

Michael Stanley Smith

Econometric Modeling Of Regional Electricity Spot Prices In The Australian Market, Michael S. Smith, Thomas S. Shively

Michael Stanley Smith

Variational Bayes Estimation Of Discrete-Margined Copula Models With Application To Ime Series, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

Macroconstants Of Development: A New Benchmark For The Strategic Development Of Advanced Countries And Firms, Andrey Bystrov, Vyacheslav Yusim, Tamilla Curtis

Dr. Tamilla Curtis

This research proposed a new indicator of countries’ development called “macroconstants of development”. The literature review indicates that the concept of "macroconstants of development" is not used at the moment in neither the theory nor the practice of industrial policy. Research of longitudinal data of total GDP, GDP per capita and their derivatives for most countries of the world was conducted. An analysis of statistical information has been done by employing econometric analyses.

Based on the analysis of the statistical data, which characterizes the development of large, technologically advanced countries in ordinary conditions, it was identified that the average acceleration …

Asymmetric Forecast Densities For U.S. Macroeconomic Variables From A Gaussian Copula Model Of Cross-Sectional And Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Shaun Vahey

Michael Stanley Smith

Embアルゴリズムの新たな応用による多重比率補定(高橋将宜), Masayoshi Takahashi

Masayoshi Takahashi

No abstract provided.

Studying The Effects Of Non Oil Exports On Targeted Economic Growth In Iranian 5th Development Plan: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach, Rasoul Bakhsi Dastjerdi Dr., Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Somayye Jafari

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

we investigate the effects of non oil export on Iran’s economic growth using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) and study which tradable sectors has a larger share in reaching to targeted growth rate 8% in 5th socio economic development plan. We calibrate the model by GAMS (with emphasis on foreign trade sector). Numerical solution to the model is based on Iran’s social accounting matrix (SAM). Results show that 2.03% of targeted economic growth rate is achieved by encouraging a 6% growth in export. It also be mentioned that industry and mine sector in Iran, has more influence on growth than …

Copula Modelling Of Dependence In Multivariate Time Series, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

欠測値補定の診断手法としての多重代入法(高橋将宜), Masayoshi Takahashi

Masayoshi Takahashi

No abstract provided.

From Amazon To Apple: Modeling Online Retail Sales, Purchase Incidence And Visit Behavior, Anastasios Panagiotelis, Michael S. Smith, Peter Danaher

Michael Stanley Smith

In this study we propose a multivariate stochastic model for website visit duration, page views, purchase incidence and the sale amount for online retailers. The model is constructed by composition from carefully selected distributions, and involves copula components. It allows for the strong nonlinear relationships between the sales and visit variables to be explored in detail, and can be used to construct sales predictions. The model is readily estimated using maximum likelihood, making it an attractive choice in practice given the large sample sizes that are commonplace in online retail studies. We examine a number of top-ranked U.S. online retailers, …

Asymptotic Behavior Of A T Test Robust To Cluster Heterogeneity, Douglas G. Steigerwald

Douglas G. Steigerwald

We study the behavior of a cluster-robust t statistic and make two principle contributions. First, we relax the restriction of previous asymptotic theory that clusters have identical size, and establish that the cluster-robust t statistic continues to have a Gaussian asymptotic null distribution. Second, we determine how variation in cluster sizes, together with other sources of cluster heterogeneity, affect the behavior of the test statistic. To do so, we determine the sample specific measure of cluster heterogeneity that governs this behavior and show that the measure depends on how three quantities vary over clusters: cluster size, the cluster specific error …

Time Series, Unit Roots, And Cointegration: An Introduction, Lonnie K. Stevans

Lonnie K. Stevans

The econometric literature on unit roots took off after the publication of the paper by Nelson and Plosser (1982) that argued that most macroeconomic series have unit roots and that this is important for the analysis of macroeconomic policy. Yule (1926) suggested that regressions based on trending time series data can be spurious. This problem of spurious correlation was further pursued by Granger and Newbold (1974) and this also led to the development of the concept of cointegration (lack of cointegration implies spurious regression). The pathbreaking paper by Granger (1981), first presented at a conference at the University of Florida …

Obtaining Critical Values For Test Of Markov Regime Switching, Douglas G. Steigerwald, Valerie Bostwick

Douglas G. Steigerwald

For Markov regime-switching models, testing for the possible presence of more than one regime requires the use of a non-standard test statistic. Carter and Steigerwald (forthcoming, Journal of Econometric Methods) derive in detail the analytic steps needed to implement the test ofMarkov regime-switching proposed by Cho and White (2007, Econometrica). We summarize the implementation steps and address the computational issues that arise. A new command to compute regime-switching critical values, rscv, is introduced and presented in the context of empirical research.

Construction Of Pena’S Dp2-Based Ordinal Synthetic Indicator When Partial Indicators Are Rank Scores, Sudhanshu K. Mishra

Sudhanshu K Mishra

The present study devises a computational scheme (and develops a FORTRAN 77 computer program) that may be appropriate to construct Pena’s DP2 (ordinal) synthetic indicator (Z) from the partial indicators (X) all of which are ordinal (ranking scores). An attempt has also been made to empirically apply the method (and the computer program) to obtain an ordinal synthetic indicator from a given ordinal data set.

Testing For Regime Swtiching: A Comment, Douglas Steigerwald, Andrew Carter

Douglas G. Steigerwald

An autoregressive model with Markov-regime switching is analyzed that reflects on the properties of the quasi-likelihood ratio test developed by Cho and White (2007). For such a model, we show that consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for the population parameter values, on which consistency of the test is based, does not hold. We describe a condition that ensures consistency of the estimator and discuss the consistency of the test in the absence of consistency of the estimator.

Syllabus Of Intermediate Macroeconomics (Master's Course), Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

No abstract provided.

Asean+3 Monetary And Financial Integration: What We Need For A New Framework?, Reza Moosavi Mohseni

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In this paper at first we investigate the viability of creating an optimum currency area (OCA) in the East Asia. Then we try to find the currency bloc which is more suitable for this region. A ten-variable VAR model employed to estimate the underlying shocks and test the symmetry of them. The results show that forming an OCA for all of the countries in the region is costly and difficult to sustain. But at first five countries called Japan, China, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippine with symmetric supply shocks can create the single currency area. The rest of the countries …

Cv, Lorán Chollete

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

International Diversification: An Extreme Value Approach, Lorán Chollete, Victor De La Peña, Ching-Chih Lu

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Accurately Sized Test Statistics With Misspecified Conditional Homoskedasticity, Douglas Steigerwald, Jack Erb

Douglas G. Steigerwald

We study the finite-sample performance of test statistics in linear regression models where the error dependence is of unknown form. With an unknown dependence structure there is traditionally a trade-off between the maximum lag over which the correlation is estimated (the bandwidth) and the amount of heterogeneity in the process. When allowing for heterogeneity, through conditional heteroskedasticity, the correlation at far lags is generally omitted and the resultant inflation of the empirical size of test statistics has long been recognized. To allow for correlation at far lags we study test statistics constructed under the possibly misspecified assumption of conditional homoskedasticity. …

The Underground Economy Of Fake Antivirus Software, Douglas Steigerwald, Brett Stone-Gross, Ryan Abman, Richard Kemmerer, Christopher Kruegel, Giovanni Vigna

Douglas G. Steigerwald

Fake antivirus (AV) programs have been utilized to defraud millions of computer users into paying as much as one hundred dollars for a phony software license. As a result, fake AV software has evolved into one of the most lucrative criminal operations on the Internet. In this paper, we examine the operations of three large-scale fake AV businesses, lasting from three months to more than two years. More precisely, we present the results of our analysis on a trove of data obtained from several backend servers that the cybercriminals used to drive their scam operations. Our investigations reveal that these …

Ranking Of Provinces In Iran According To Socio-Economic Indices, Jalil Khodaparast Shirazi, Reza Moosavi Mohseni, A. R. Rahmansetayesh

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

Some parts of a country may have lower income earned through business activities in comparison with other parts of the country. When it is accompanied by lack of social income because of less access to the products and services provided by the government, it will lead to the serious lag of some areas of the country in comparison with other areas. The first step to prevent such a problem is the recognition of the present situation and the second step is programming to reach an appropriate situation. This article applied socioeconomic indices to recognize the current condition in Fars province …

Men In Black: The Impact Of New Contracts On Football Referees’ Performances, Babatunde Buraimo, Alex Bryson, Rob Simmons

Dr Babatunde Buraimo

No abstract provided.

The 1905 Einstein Equation In A General Mathematical Analysis Model Of Quasars, Byron E. Bell

Byron E. Bell

International Diversification: A Copula Approach, Lorán Chollete, Victor De La Pena, Ching-Chih Lu

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Participation And Engagement In Sport: A Double Hurdle Approach For The United Kingdom, Babatunde Buraimo, Brad Humphreys, Rob Simmons

Dr Babatunde Buraimo

This paper uses pooled cross-section data from four waves of the United Kingdom’s Taking Part Survey, 2005 to 2009, in order to investigate determinants of probability of participation and levels of engagement in sports. The two rival modelling approaches considered here are the double-hurdle approach and the Heckman sample selection model. The Heckman model proves to be deficient in several key respects. The double-hurdle approach offers more reliable estimates than the Heckman sample selection model, at least for this particular survey. The distinction is more than just statistical nuance as there are substantive differences in qualitative results from the two …

Sphet: Spatial Models With Heteroskedastic Innovations In R, Gianfranco Piras

Gianfranco Piras

No abstract provided.

The 1905 Einstein Equation In A General Mathematical Analysis Model Of Quasars, Byron E. Bell

Byron E. Bell

No abstract provided.

The Journey To Safety: Conflict-Driven Migration Flows In Colombia, Gianfranco Piras, Nancy Lozano-Gracia, Geoffrey Hewings, Ana Maria Ibanez

Gianfranco Piras

No abstract provided.