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Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending In Real Time?, Dean D. Croushore
Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending In Real Time?, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
In 1993, the Philadelphia Fed undertook a project to develop a real-time data set for macroeconomists, who can use these data in many ways — for example, when analyzing indexes of consumer confidence. existing research indicates that consumer-confidence measures, though highly correlated with future spending, do not improve forecasts of future spending. but these studies used revised data that were not available to forecasters at the time they made their forecasts. In this article, Dean Croushore uses the real-time data set to investigate an important question: Does using data available to forecasters at the time — that is, real-time data …
How Useful Are Forecasts Of Corporate Profits, Dean D. Croushore
How Useful Are Forecasts Of Corporate Profits, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
If forecasters predict higher earnings for corporations, the stock market will rise. Stock prices will drop with a forecast of lower earnings. But are such forecasts on the money? Dean Croushore uses data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to check the accuracy of forecasts of corporate profits. The results show that, despite the volatility of corporate profits, the forecasts are rational.