Econometrics Commons^™

Consumer Confidence Surveys: Can They Help Us Forecast Consumer Spending In Real Time?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

In 1993, the Philadelphia Fed undertook a project to develop a real-time data set for macroeconomists, who can use these data in many ways — for example, when analyzing indexes of consumer confidence. existing research indicates that consumer-confidence measures, though highly correlated with future spending, do not improve forecasts of future spending. but these studies used revised data that were not available to forecasters at the time they made their forecasts. In this article, Dean Croushore uses the real-time data set to investigate an important question: Does using data available to forecasters at the time — that is, real-time data …

U.S. Coins: Forecasting Change, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Although the government annually produces about 70 new coins for every man, woman, and child, the economy’s need for coins can vary from year to year. So how do the U.S. Mint, which makes the coins, and the Federal Reserve, which distributes them, decide how many coins the economy needs? Dean Croushore highlights some facts about coins and describes how demand for change is forecast.

How Useful Are Forecasts Of Corporate Profits, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

If forecasters predict higher earnings for corporations, the stock market will rise. Stock prices will drop with a forecast of lower earnings. But are such forecasts on the money? Dean Croushore uses data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to check the accuracy of forecasts of corporate profits. The results show that, despite the volatility of corporate profits, the forecasts are rational.

Introducing: The Survey Of Professional Forecasters, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

Forecasts play a crucial role in the economy. Businesses won't hire workers as readily if they think the economy may go into a recession soon. Long-term interest rates will rise if people in the financial markets expect inflation to increase. And firms are less likely to borrow money for new investment spending today if they think interest rates will soon decline.

Forecasts are important for many decisions, but not many people have the knowledge and experience to forecast economic variables well. It makes sense, therefore, for people to rely on the forecasts of experts. One easy way to get these …

How Big Is Your Share Of Government Debt?, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

In evaluating the government's financial position, taxpayers need to account not only for its debt, but also for its ownership of tangible assets. Each taxpayer has a share of the government's net worth that is positive; however, the share was larger 10 years ago. While the real net debt tripled, this huge rise in government indebtedness generated no similar gain in government assets. Taxpayers will be paying interest on this debt with little hope of higher future returns from government assets to help pay it off. It is recommended that the government adopt a capital-budgeting system. This system would change …