Econometrics Commons^™

Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

Asymmetric Forecast Densities For U.S. Macroeconomic Variables From A Gaussian Copula Model Of Cross-Sectional And Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Shaun Vahey

Michael Stanley Smith

Studying The Effects Of Non Oil Exports On Targeted Economic Growth In Iranian 5th Development Plan: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach, Rasoul Bakhsi Dastjerdi Dr., Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Somayye Jafari

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

we investigate the effects of non oil export on Iran’s economic growth using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) and study which tradable sectors has a larger share in reaching to targeted growth rate 8% in 5th socio economic development plan. We calibrate the model by GAMS (with emphasis on foreign trade sector). Numerical solution to the model is based on Iran’s social accounting matrix (SAM). Results show that 2.03% of targeted economic growth rate is achieved by encouraging a 6% growth in export. It also be mentioned that industry and mine sector in Iran, has more influence on growth than …

The Impact Of The Volatility Of Monetary Policy On A Small Economy: Some Evidence From New Zealand, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao, Wenjun Zhang

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks on a small economy using the GARCH-SVAR model. We enrich the SVAR model by using time-varying International and domestic volatilities as endogenous variables. The results show that although monetary policy shocks have transient effect on real economy (neutrality of money) the impact of the volatility of monetary policy shocks on real part of the economy is permanent and significant. Findings of variance decomposition also show that New Zealand heavily depends on international trade, so international monetary shocks can have a permanent impact on the local …

External Economies And Competitive Equilibrium, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan

George A. Hay

In an article published in 1955, Murray Kemp analyzed the case for interference with the competitive allocation of resources when external economies of production are present. In the specific model we are interested in—where the costs of any one producer's operations are affected by the total output of all producers of the same product—Kemp attempted to show that where entry into the industry is closed (although the industry is otherwise perfectly competitive), "there can always be found a subsidy, either on the product or on a particular factor, which will be a sufficient incentive to firms to produce an optimal …

The Financial Crisis Impact On Potential Output In Iran, Fatemeh Almasi, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jalili Khodaparast Shirazi Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In this study the quarterly data from 1996:1-2011:2 have been used to investigate the effect of financial crisis on potential output in Iran. For this purpose potential output, natural unemployment rate, spread between short-run and long-run interest rate and real money supply variables are used to estimate Auto Regressive Model and analyze Impulse-Response function and Variance Decomposition. The results show that financial crisis has a negative impact on potential output in Iran. Also, monetary shocks have negative impact on potential output in Iran. As regards, monetary policy has no effect on actual output in long-run, it seems that monetary policies …

The Impact Of Global And Domestic Volatility Of Monetary Policy: A Var-Garch Approach, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao Prof., Wenjun Zhang Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In the past six decades a lot of research has been carried out to find the effect of monetary policy on real economy. But in the most of these articles, the effect of the volatility of monetary policy has been ignored. This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks using the GARCH-VAR model. We enrich the VAR model by adding time-varying volatility as endogenous variables. We consider three different types of shocks: internal (domestic), regional and global. For our empirical evidence we use quarterly data of Australia and New Zealand from 1988:1 to …

Curriculum Vitae, Ronald R. Kumar

Ronald R Kumar

My updated CV

Monetary Integration And Optimum Currency Area In Asean+3: What We Need For A New Framework?, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Azali Mohammed Prof.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In this paper at first we investigate the viability of creating an optimum currency area (OCA) in the East Asia. The results of a ten-variable VAR model show that forming an OCA for all of the countries in the region is costly and difficult to sustain. But at first five countries called Japan, China, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippine with symmetric supply shocks can create the OCA. The findings also show that both dollar and yen can be suitable anchor for these countries, but with the exception of Indonesia all other countries are better potential clients of dollar. The final …

That Is The Story Of A Hurricane: Within Country Impacts Of Extreme Weather Events, Martino Pelli, Jeanne Tschopp

Martino Pelli

In this paper, we consider the within-country, across-product impacts of hurricanes on export growth. While hurricanes are thought to exert large costs in terms of development on countries who bare the brunt of such events, there is little consensus on the literature to back up these claims. We argue that one reason for this is that the existing literature fails to take into account the potential for hurricanes to have differential impacts across products (or industries). We show that one important source of heterogeneity is a country’s comparative advantage and demonstrate, using a triple-difference identification strategy, that product lines with …

Banking And Stock Markets In Iran: Are They Complements Or Substitutes, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Elaheh Ghyasi, Jalil Khodaparast Shirazi

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In this study, the quarterly data from 1991:4 to 2011:3 have been used to investigate the effect of the relation between banking sector and stock market on economic growth in Iran. The break point obtained by Gregory and Hansen(1996) appears in the first quarter of 2005, which coincides with the period of the remarkable increase in oil and gas revenues. The results of Johansen test shows that higher export income in Iran decreases the substitution of banking and stock market. On the other hand, the relation between turnover and real output decreases after the break point. In addition, the relation …

A Multivariate Analysis Of The Causal Flow Between Renewable Energy Consumption And Gdp In Tunisia, Maamar Sebri, Ousama Ben Salha

Maamar Sebri

No abstract provided.

Exito Económico Y Volatilidad ¿Existen Los Almuerzos Gratis?, Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

Francisco Carlos Ruiz Diaz

El crecimiento sostenido es factible, pero debe sustentarse en el sacrificio social (ahorro para promover la acumulación de capital físico, humano e innovaciones). No existen los milagros, ni los almuerzos gratis. Para crecer sostenidamente se debe transpirar. Paraguay viene experimentando algunos años en que el PIB crece a tasas elevadas. Esto es porque el país ha comenzado a producir, a escala intensiva, bienes con fuerte demanda mundial y precios elevados. Estos productos son de origen agropecuarios y la venta al extranjero se da en estado natural o con escaso valor agregado. Este hecho transformó la dinámica productiva del país dado …

Cointegration Analysis Of Oil Prices And Consumer Price Index In South Africa Using Stata Software, Mphumuzi A. Sukati Mr

Mphumuzi A Sukati Mr

This paper investigates the concept of vector autoregression (VAR) and cointegration using a bivariate model of global oil prices and headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) in South Africa. The study aims to determine how much of inflation is driven by oil prices. Particular attention is paid to the theoretical underpinnings of cointergration analysis and the application of STATA software to undertake such analysis and perform test statistics. Contrary to the popular myth that a rise in global oil prices fuels inflation, this study has observed that global oil prices are not the drivers of inflation in South Africa. In this …

Alternative Estimators Of Cointegrating Parameters In Models With Non-Stationary Data: An Application To Us Export Demand, James Forest, Paul Turner

James J Forest

This paper presents Monte Carlo simulations which compare the empirical performance of two alternative single equation estimators of the equilibrium parameters in a dynamic relationship. The estimators considered are Stock and Watson’s dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator and Bewley’s transformation of the general autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that the Bewley transformation produces a lower mean-square error as well as superior serial correlation properties even with lower truncation lags for the lagged variables included in the estimation equation. An application is then provided which examines the nature of the equilibrium relationship between aggregate US exports, world trade …

Demographic Transition In Resource Rich Countries: A Bonus Or A Curse?, Kjetil Bjorvatn, Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

Prof. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

While East Asia benefited significantly from its demographic transition in the 1970s and 1980s, the youth wave that we currently observe in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has not had a similar impact on economic development. The present study argues that resource wealth is an important reason for understanding why. We develop a simple model highlighting how the income effect of increased labor supply may depend on resource rents, and provide empirical evidence that support the theoretical predictions. Using panel data covering the period from 1970–2006 for more than 120 countries, we find a negative interaction effect between …

Ma Thesis - Migration And Development: The Development Impacts Of Short-Term Labour Migration Of Ni-Vanuatu Workers To New Zealand, Ronald R. Kumar

Dr Ronald R Kumar

The New Zealand’s Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) scheme is a New Zealand Government initiative that officially commenced in 2007. In this programme, five developing Pacific Island countries (PICs), namely Kiribati, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu – referred to as the kick start countries, participated in short-term labour migration. The objectives of this Scheme are at least two fold. Firstly, the scheme was initiated to address seasonal labour shortage in New Zealand and second, to give employment opportunity to selected PICs. Since 2007, the RSE Scheme has undergone significant changes primarily addressing issues and concerns that emerged along the way. …

Weak-Form Market Efficiency And Calendar Anomalies For Eastern Europe Equity Markets, Francesco Guidi, Rakesh Gupta, Suneel Maheshwari

Suneel K. Maheshwari

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of Treasury Auction Announcements On Interest Rates: 1990-1999, James J. Forest

James J Forest

In this study we examine the secondary-market response of U.S. Treasury interest rates to both the release of pre-auction auction supply announcements and post-auction details from U.S. Treasury auctions during the period of the 1990s. Rate changes are found to differ significantly on auction days. Pre-auction announcements of auction volumes are shown to affect rates significantly, in contrast with the findings of Wachtel and Young (1987) with respect to deficit announcements. We find that surprises in the release of bid-to-cover ratios affect Treasury rates significantly, while the surprises in the volume of noncompetitive bids appears to have little affect on …

Income Inequality And Economic Incentives: Is There An Equity-Efficiency Tradeoff?, Lonnie K. Stevans

Lonnie K. Stevans

What is the basis and direction of relationship between income inequality and economic growth? The equity versus efficiency dictum which predicts a positive relationship between inequality, capital formation, and real GDP growth—emphasizes the importance of economic incentives. Subsequently, this was challenged by the incomplete markets and political outcomes theories, because of increasing empirical evidence of an inverse relationship between income inequality and economic growth. In this paper, a further explanation of the basis and nature of the inequality–capital–growth relationship is presented, which emphasizes the divergence between savings and investment. For the United States, over the period 1970–2006, we have found …

Human Capital Formation And Economic Development In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis, Muhammad Irfan Chani, Mahboob Ul Hassan, Muhammad Shahid

Muhammad Irfan Chani

This study investigates the casual relationship between economic development and formation of human capital in Pakistan. Based on endogenous growth theory, this study empirically tests the standard growth model consisting of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as a dependent variable and human capital formation, investment in physical capital and labor force as independent variables. Autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration is used to check the long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables included in the model. For checking the causal relationship between economic development and human capital formation, pair-wise Granger causality test is used for time series …

Some Socio Economic Determinants Of Fertility In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis, Muhammad Irfan Chani, Muhammad Shahid, Mahboob Ul Hassan

Muhammad Irfan Chani

This study aims to investigate the role that various socioeconomic factors like female education, urbanization and female labour force participation play in determining fertility of women in Pakistan. ARDL bound test approach to cointegration is used to analyze the long-run relationship of the variables by using the data for the period from 1980 to 2009. The empirical results show that there exists a long-run as well as short-run relationship between fertility and urbanization, female labour force participation and female education in Pakistan. The analysis indicates there is a negative relationship between all 3 determinants with fertility. Female education and urbanization …

Exploring Sectoral Elasticity Vis-À-Vis Per Worker Income With A Focus To Agriculture: A Study Of Sub-Saharan Africa, Ronald R. Kumar, Radika Kumar

Dr Ronald R Kumar

No abstract provided.

Bank Credit And Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Analysis, Nuno Carlos Leitão

Nuno Carlos Leitão

This study examines the link between bank lending and economic growth for European Union (EU-27) for the period 1990 to 2010. We apply a dynamic panel data (GMM-system estimator). This estimator permits to solve the problems of serial correlation, heteroskedasticity and endogeneity for some explanatory variables. As the results show, savings promotes growth. The inflation and bank credit have a negative impact on economic growth as previous studies.

Pollution, Economic Development And Democracy: Evidence From The Mena Countries, Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, Gunther Markwardt

Prof. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries are among the top emitters of CO2 and SO2 in per capita terms in the world. Our goal is to show that whether investing in the democratic development of countries is an effective tool to make the economic growth in this region more environmentally compatible. We use pooled OLS, country and time fixed and random effects, and system GMM method to estimate the marginal pollution impact of a 1% increase in GDP per capita at different levels of democracy from 1960 to 2005.

Regardless of method of estimation, we can see a …

Resource Wealth And Entrepreneurship: A Blessing Or A Curse?, Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

Prof. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

Resource-rich countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have the highest youth unemployment rate in the world. While other parts of the world are experiencing an increasing trend in new firms’ formation as a potential solution for their unemployment problem, the MENA region has the lowest records in new business establishments. In this study, we investigate the reasons behind such a significant lag of the resource-rich countries in entrepreneurship. Panel data for more than 80 countries from 2004-2009 shows that higher dependence on resource rents reduces entrepreneurship activities. The decline is more significant in countries with higher levels …

Natural Resources And Internal Conflicts - How Decentralization Lifts The Curse, Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, Gunther Markwardt, Christian Lessmann

Prof. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

We study how the natural resource endowments affect risk of internal conflicts and how this effect depends on decentralization levels in a political system. Resource rents, especially lootable resources such as oil, finance conflicts, creating strong separatist movements. Our main hypothesis is that increasing the levels of political decentralization can limit the destructive effect of the natural resource rents on internal conflicts. We use cross-country and panel data covering the period from 1984–2004 from more than 80 countries to test this hypothesis. Our estimates confirm that the relationship between the natural resource rents and risk of internal conflict is dependent …

Military Spending And Economic Growth: The Case Of Iran, Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

Prof. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

Iranian government budget on military over the last decade has been higher than the average of the world. The current increasing international sanctions aim to reduce the military capabilities and capacities of the Iranian government. In this study, we analyze the response of the Iranian economy to shocks in its military budget from 1959-2007, using Impulse Response Functions (IRF) and Variance Decomposition Analysis (VDA) techniques. The Granger causality results show that there is unidirectional causality from military spending to the economic growth. The response of income growth to increasing shocks in the military budget is positive and statistically significant.

Resource Curse And Power Balance: Evidence From Iran, Kjetil Bjorvatn, Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, Friedrich Schneider

Prof. Dr. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan

Empirical research shows that natural resources have a detrimental effect on economic growth, a phenomenon known as the “resource curse”. Competition between influence groups for access to the resource rents, that is, rent-seeking, is often blamed for this curse. In this paper we dig deeper into the link between political competition and the resource curse by studying the case of Iran from 1960-2007. We present a theoretical model demonstrating how the effect of rents on the economy depends on the balance of political power. The model shows that an increase in rents may lead to a sharp reduction in income …

Mexico: Illicit Financial Flows, Macroeconomic Imbalances, And The Underground Economy, Dev Kar

Dev Kar

The study traces the evolution of illicit financial flows from Mexico over the 41-year period 1970-2010. While such outflows have increased throughout the four decades, the pace picked up in the post- compared with the pre-NAFTA period. Furthermore, in spite of the somewhat erratic nature of the outflows over time, there is a discernable pattern to these outflows in the years leading up to the macroeconomic crises and their aftermath. We develop a dynamic simulation model that examines the interactions between fiscal developments, monetary expansion, and the generation of inflation on the one hand and on the interactions between the …