Econometrics Commons^™

Violence And Development: The Cost Countries Pay For High Rates Of Homicide, Brittany Lowe

The Cardinal Edge

Violence is one of the largest and most persistent humanitarian crises across the globe. Understanding violence’s role in economic costs and losses is crucial to informing and guiding decision makers. This study uses international panel data to conduct a log-linear regression with time and country fixed effects. It focuses on studying the causal effects of violent crime on GDP at an aggregate, international level. The results find that the homicide rate has a statistically significant, negative effect on GDP per capita. Acts of violence come not just at a humanitarian cost, but also at the cost of economic progress and …

External Sector Liberalization And Output Growth In Nigeria, Emmanuel A. Onwioduokit, Obong E. Effiong

Bullion

The paper investigates the impact of external sector liberalization (foreign direct investment, external debt stock, trade openness and exchange rate) on the output growth in Nigeria from the period 1981 to 2019, utilizing correlation analysis, Granger causality test and vector autoregression (VAR). The results indicate that foreign direct investment, external debt stock, trade openness and exchange rate all correlate positively with gross domestic product. Also, the granger causality test indicates that foreign direct investment, trade openness and exchange rate granger cause the output growth in Nigeria. From the VAR result foreign direct investment exerted positive and significant impact on the …

Three Essays On Exchange Rate Models And Their Applications, Azza A. Mansour

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1: This chapter attempts to identify the determinant of exchange rate pass-through into producer and destination prices using highly disaggregated firm-level data of importers and exporters of the Egyptian economy from 2009 to 2013. The main findings assert the hypothesis of complete exchange rate pass-through into destination prices at the lowest level of significance for the average exporting firm that is also importing. Furthermore, the firm with the highest import intensity has a lower percentage of pass-through into destination prices, indicating that the marginal cost channel plays a more significant role in determining the speed of the exchange rate …

Essays On Spatial Econometrics Application In Study Of Conflict And Economic Activity, Ahmed Sadek Yousuf

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Spatial interaction and the locational structure between observations as well as availability of satellite derived data has meant a richer and more exhaustive exploration of topics relevant in development topics, particularly in areas of subnational economic activity and conflict. This research leverages thus spatial econometric techniques to dynamically decompose impacts from socio-economic determinants on conflict incidence (with setting in Sub-Saharan Africa). Later I also present a statistical framework (based on extension of Henderson’s approach (2012)) to augment official income figures at district / county level with multiple satellite derived signals, with specific context given to developing countries.

In the first …

Do Conditional Cash Transfers Increase School Enrollment? Evidence From Brazil, Jeanette L. Silvernale

Master's Theses

Conditional cash transfer programs have been widely deployed across the globe. They seek to bolster human capital by providing benefits contingent upon a variety of actions such as school attendance and regular health checkups. Bolsa Familia is the most extensive conditional cash transfer program, serving 46 million Brazilian citizens. Despite its expansive size, there have been seldom large-scale micro evaluations of the program. Limited data has resulted in small sample sizes drawn from a single point in time. Our study diverges from the rest and utilizes a novel administrative dataset with an overall sample of nearly 60 million and a …

An Inferentially Robust Look At Two Competing Explanations For The Surge In Unauthorized Migration From Central America, Nick Santos

Dissertations

The last 8 years have seen a dramatic increase in the flow of Central American apprehensions by the U.S. Border Patrol. Explanations for this surge in apprehensions have been split between two leading hypotheses. Most academic scholars, immigrant advocates, progressive media outlets, and human rights organizations identify poverty and violence (the Poverty and Violence Hypothesis) in Central America as the primary triggers responsible. In contrast, while most government officials, conservative think tanks, and the agencies that work in the immigration and border enforcement realm admit poverty and violence may underlie some decisions to migrate, they instead blame lax U.S. immigration …

Using Difference-In-Differences Analysis And The Kocyk Geometric Lag Model To Estimate Aspects Of Carbon Tax Effectiveness In Nordic Countries, Kyle Riley

Honors Theses

This paper generally looks at the connections between carbon taxes and carbon emission levels in Nordic countries over a period from the 1960s to the early 2010s. Most of the existing literature on this topic looks at and finds that carbon taxes do have a significant impact upon carbon emissions levels in some countries while not in others. In many countries which have this policy there is not a significant impact that can be seen and there is a discussion as to why this might be the case and what needs to be done to fix these potential issues to …

Cost Countries Pay For High Homicide Rates, Brittany Lowe

Grawemeyer Colloquium Papers

This research finds the economic cost, in terms of GDP per capita, to countries for increased violence using typical econometric models, and then makes recommendations to decision makers about funding allocation of violence prevention programs based off its findings.

Profit Efficiency Analysis Of Cassava Production In Enugu State, Nigeria, Oguejiofor J. Okorie, Ubokudom E. Okon, Anselm A. Enete

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

This study analyzed the profit efficiency of smallholder cassava farmers in Enugu state, Nigeria. The study employed a multi-stage random sampling technique in selecting 240 cassava farm households who are registered in the Enugu State Fadama III project during the 2019 farming season. Data were collected using copies of structured questionnaire and interview schedule. Collected data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics (stochastic frontier profit function model). Results showed that the majority (73.3%) of the household heads were male, with a mean age of 52 years. Additionally, the majority (78.5%) of the respondents were married, mean farm size of …

The Effects Of Tax Policies On Entrepreneurship In Emerging Versus Mature Economies: Do Differences Exist Between Nascent And Established Firms?, Benjamin B. Boozer, Taleah H. Collum

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

An extensive body of research defines various levels of entrepreneurship and considers emerging trends. This study uses data from Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) in developing a model that measures the impact of taxes and bureaucracy on entrepreneurship. The analysis considers effects by type of firm – nascent and established – and type of economy – emerging and mature. The aim of the manuscript is to test directional impact of tax policies on entrepreneurial activity. The model utilizes counter and dichotomous variables to measure effects before, during, and after the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis. Tax policies adversely impact both nascent and established …

Export Promotion As A Development Strategy: Evidence From Selected Southeast Asian Countries And Lessons For Ghana, Ohenewaa B. Newman

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

Developing countries have adopted various development strategies such as import substitution industrialization (ISI) and export promotion strategies. For Latin-American and developing countries, some level of economic growth was experienced using ISI after the Second World War. However, these countries could not attain the needed economic growth, technological advancement or guarantee food security with the adoption of ISI. It led to unequal income distribution, less internal competition, and distortions of their economy, among others. The rise of export promotion strategies in the 1970s was evidenced by an impressive economic growth and a decline in poverty in jurisdictions like Taiwan, Tanzania and …

Trade Liberalization And Economic Performance: An Empirical Analysis, Brandon Fontaine

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Trade liberalization has long been a debated topic; free traders will argue it makes all involved parties more prosperous while protectionists say that it costs jobs and hurts countries’ economies. This paper will study the relationship between a country’s trade freedom, as measured by the Heritage Foundations trade openness metrics, and the nation’s economic performance. This study will incorporate indicators such as gross domestic product, unemployment, and investment flows across 56 countries of different income levels to determine whether free trade policies lead to greater economic performance. The three income levels analyzed will be high-income, medium-income, and low-income. The empirical …

The Effect Of Poor Working Conditions And Income Inequality On Gdp Growth, Trent Remillard

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper looks to see if there is a relationship between poor working conditions and growth in GDP annually. Many nations have historically treated their workers very poorly, and offered little in support or protection to them. Consequently, many of these same nations have seen large boosts in annual GDP growth. This paper aims to see if there is a correlation between this treatment of workers, and these subsequent boosts of GDP growth, and if there is, is it possible to predict the expected level of growth based on these factors.

Foreign Direct Investment And Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis, Yuan Yao

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the influences of FDI on economic growth of selected Latin American and Asian countries both directly and indirectly through factors such as technology, knowledge transfer, and trade openness. The study uses the growth regression to examine and identify not only the relationship between the FDI and economic growth of the underlying countries but also the interaction effects of FDI with human capital and trade openness on the economic growth based on the statistical performance of the interaction terms in the model. The evidence from the study shows that FDI does have an impact on economic growth both …

Macroeconomic Drivers Of Reit Stock Prices, Nicholas Mulligan

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates several variables as potential drivers of REIT stock performance. The results show that four of the six independent variables, all of positively correlated ones, were significant. The combination of variables proved to be very predictive, yielding an R-squared of 0.9712. The two variables that were added in this study versus the benchmark Morgan Stanley study proved to be highly significant. The two negatively correlated variables proved to be insignificant.

A Time Series Analysis Of Determinants Of Pce Inflation In The United States, Elliot Charron

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the factors contributing to the PCE inflation rate in the United States. The study incorporates economic determinants in a time series analysis to examine the influence of economic variables on the PCE Inflation rate in the United States. The economic variables include the unemployment rate, wages, inflation expectations, the federal funds rate, the money supply, import prices, and the labor force participation rate. The ADF unit root test shows that the first difference is stationary while the Johansen test of cointegration shows that there is cointegration of 7 and that a vector error correction model (VECM) must …

Star Player Bias In The Nba: A Quantile Regression Approach, Daniel Barrett

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the impact of an NBA player’s salary on the number of fouls drawn by them in a season. NBA referees have complete discretion in making calls of whether a player does or does not commit a foul in game, with decisions susceptible to bias, favoring certain players with more fouls called in their favor than another player. The study uses salary to determine a player’s value, using a panel dataset of all players from the 2015-16 NBA season through the 2018-19 NBA season for salary and game statistics. The impact of salary is determined using a quantile …

Comparing Machine Learning Techniques For Predicting Bank Failure, Armen Eghian

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

The study of machine learning has helped create and refine many types of predictive models. These models have been applied to countless problems, but the importance of banking stability has led many researchers to create models predicting if a bank will be active in future years. Neural networks, support vector machines, and traditional regression models, have been used to predict bank failure, but random forests have not been fully explored. This paper shows random forests can offer prediction power greater than neural networks and logit models when used to predict bank failure. This aligns with work comparing random forests and …

Student Achievement In Rhode Island Charter Schools: A Cross-Sectional Analysis, Edward Golas

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Using standardized test results from the school year 2018-19 this study compares the performance of 3rd through 8th graders in Rhode Island charter schools to their peers in traditional public schools (TPSs). This study also uses OLS techniques to test if Rhode Island charter schools help to bridge the achievement gap between minority (black and Hispanic) students and white students. The results show that in approximately ¾ of comparable instances, Rhode Island charter schools outperform TPSs on both English and math standardized tests. Additionally, it was found that Hispanic students attending a charter school are predicted to score higher on …

The Relationship Between Transportation Accessibility And Economic Development, Abigail Kiggen

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possible relationship between transportation infrastructure accessibility and economic development in a given region. The study will incorporate data from counties in the state of Massachusetts to compare development from previous studies in the New York area. The independent variable will be transportation infrastructure accessibility, and the dependent variable will be measures of economic development. The results show that there are generally not correlations between better accessibility and economic development in a given region.

The Effects Of Imf's Lending And Conditionalities On Economic Growth: Case Of Sadc Countries, Lutete Celina Carlos

Masters Theses

I examine the impact of IMF credit use and its conditions on economic growth performance in 12 South African countries over a period of 1999-2019. The work adopts an empirical and quantitative approach to analyzing the relationship between the GDP per Capita, the use of IMF Credit, Government Final Consumption Expenditure, Net Domestic Credit and Current Account balance. These variables are the most recommended in the IMF conditionalities during the lending arrangements with SADC members. The study uses Fixed-effect approach to evaluate how the use of IMF program and the conditions imposed directly affects economic growth. A dummy variable is …

Quality Analysis Of Lift Ticket Prices In The United States Using Logistic Regression, Jared Murphy

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possibility of a relationship between Lift Ticket Prices and quality of resorts in the United States of America. The study incorporates information from a number of past research papers analyzing the price of lift tickets and the individual characteristics of the ski area. In recent years, the price of lift tickets has increased far greater than the rate of inflation. With over 350 companies operating in the industry in the United States, they combine for annual revenue greater than $2 billion. Consumers who enjoy the sport have seen a sharp increase in prices throughout the past …

Economic Determinants Of Within-Country Political Instability And Violence: A Panel Data Examination Of Central And South America, Michael Biskupic

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the potential impact of economic factors on withincountry violence and instability utilizing a panel data approach. More specifically, this paper examines the impact of within-country income inequality on a measure of political stability and a measure of within-country violence. Utilizing a Generalized Least Squares method, this paper finds that only in countries with a per-capita income less than $5000 is there a significant relationship between income inequality and violence. This paper concludes with a discussion of the results, recommendations for future research, and a section on policy recommendations based on the empirical results and potential risks not …

Do Conditional Cash Transfers Increase School Enrollment? Evidence From Brazil, Jeanette L. Silvernale

Master's Theses

Conditional cash transfer programs have been widely deployed across the globe. They seek to bolster human capital by providing benefits contingent upon a variety of actions such as school attendance and regular health checkups. Bolsa Familia is the most extensive conditional cash transfer program, serving 46 million Brazilian citizens. Despite its expansive size, there have been seldom large-scale micro evaluations of the program. Limited data has resulted in small sample sizes drawn from a single point in time. Our study diverges from the rest and utilizes a novel administrative dataset with an overall sample of nearly 60 million and a …