Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Keyword
-
- Skewness (2)
- Volatility (2)
- Asia (1)
- Asset allocation (1)
- Asset management (1)
-
- Asymmetries (1)
- Autoregressive Conditional Duration (1)
- ICAPM (1)
- Kurtosis (1)
- Market Microstructure (1)
- Market timing (1)
- Portfolio management (1)
- Probability of Informed Trading (1)
- Spillover (1)
- Stochastic volatility (1)
- Stock returns (1)
- Temporal aggregation (1)
- Transaction Data (1)
- Variance (1)
- Weibull Distribution (1)
Articles 1 - 5 of 5
Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
Direction-Of-Change Forecasts Based On Conditional Variance, Skewness And Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence, Peter F. Christoffersen, Francis X. Diebold, Roberto S. Mariano, Anthony S. Tay, Yiu Kuen Tse
Direction-Of-Change Forecasts Based On Conditional Variance, Skewness And Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence, Peter F. Christoffersen, Francis X. Diebold, Roberto S. Mariano, Anthony S. Tay, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce direction-of change forecasts useful for market timing. We attempt to do so in an international sample of developed equity markets, with some success, as assessed by formal probability forecast scoring rules such as the Brier score. An important ingredient is our conditioning not only on conditional mean and variance information, but also conditional skewness and kurtosis information, when forming direction-of-change forecasts.
Direction-Of-Change Forecasts For Asian Equity Markets Based On Conditional Variance, Skewness And Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence, Peter F. Christoffersen, Francis X. Diebold, Robert S. Mariano, Anthony S. Tay, Yiu Kuen Tse
Direction-Of-Change Forecasts For Asian Equity Markets Based On Conditional Variance, Skewness And Kurtosis Dynamics: International Evidence, Peter F. Christoffersen, Francis X. Diebold, Robert S. Mariano, Anthony S. Tay, Yiu Kuen Tse
Research Collection School Of Economics
Recent theoretical work has revealed a direct connection between asset return volatility forecastability and asset return sign forecastability. This suggests that the pervasive volatility forecastability in equity returns could, via induced sign forecastability, be used to produce direction-of change forecasts useful for market timing. We attempt to do so in an international sample of developed equity markets, with some success, as assessed by formal probability forecast scoring rules such as the Brier score. An important ingredient is our conditioning not only on conditional mean and variance information, but also conditional skewness and kurtosis information, when forming direction-of-change forecasts.
Global And Regional Sources Of Risk In Equity Markets: Evidence From Factor Models With Time-Varying Conditional Skewness, Aamir R. Hashmi, Anthony S. Tay
Global And Regional Sources Of Risk In Equity Markets: Evidence From Factor Models With Time-Varying Conditional Skewness, Aamir R. Hashmi, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We examine the influence of global and regional factors on the conditional distribution of stock returns from six Asian markets, using factor models in which unexpected returns comprise global, regional and local shocks. The models allow for conditional heteroskedasticity and time-varying conditional skewness, and are used to measure mean, variance, and skewness spillovers. We find that incorporating time-varying conditional skewness improves the fit of our spillover models, and can alter measurements of variance spillovers. However, time-varying conditional skewness is mostly a local phenomenon; with exceptions, there is little spillover in skewness from global and regional factors.
Temporal Aggregation And Risk-Return Relation, Jin Xing, Leping Wang, Jun Yu
Temporal Aggregation And Risk-Return Relation, Jin Xing, Leping Wang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The function form of a linear intertemporal relation between risk and return is suggested by Merton's [1973. Econometrica 41, 867–887] analytical work for instantaneous returns, whereas empirical studies have examined the nature of this relation using temporally aggregated data, i.e., daily, monthly, quarterly, or even yearly returns. Our paper carefully examines the temporal aggregation effect on the validity of the linear specification of the risk–return relation at discrete horizons, and on its implications on the reliability of the resulting inference about the risk–return relation based on different observation intervals. Surprisingly, we show that, based on the standard Heston's [1993. Review …
Modeling Transaction Data Of Trade Direction And Estimation Of Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka
Modeling Transaction Data Of Trade Direction And Estimation Of Probability Of Informed Trading, Anthony S. Tay, Christopher Ting, Yiu Kuen Tse, Mitch Warachka
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper implements the Asymmetric AutoregressiveConditional Duration (AACD) model of Bauwens and Giot (2003) to analyzeirregularly spaced transaction data of trade direction, namely buy versus sellorders. We examine the influence of lagged transaction duration, lagged volumeand lagged trade direction on transaction duration and direction. Our resultsare applied to estimate the probability of informed trading (PIN) based on theEasley, Hvidkjaer and O’Hara (2002) framework. Unlike the Easley-Hvidkjaer-O’Hara model, which uses the daily aggregate number of buy and sellorders, the AACD model makes full use of transaction data and allows forinteractions between buy and sell orders.