Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
Articles 1 - 5 of 5
Full-Text Articles in Econometrics
Comment, Dean D. Croushore
Commentary, Dean D. Croushore
Commentary, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
It is a pleasure to discuss Richard Anderson and Charles Gascon’s (2009) article on their attempt to develop a state-space model to measure potential output growth in the face of data revisions. They use the methodology of Cunningham et al. (2007) applied to real output, to see if they can develop a better measure of potential output than other researchers. Such an approach seems promising, and they develop a unique method to study the data.
Counterfeiting Truth: Statistical Reporting On The Basis Of Trust, David M. Levy, Sandra J. Peart
Counterfeiting Truth: Statistical Reporting On The Basis Of Trust, David M. Levy, Sandra J. Peart
Jepson School of Leadership Studies articles, book chapters and other publications
Semantics and game theory offer modern approaches to very old problems.1 David Lewis introduced game theoretic concepts into the study of language in his examination of conventions.2 In this chapter we study the language of a specific sort of conventions: statistical estimators. Such estimators have the important property of being both well-defined mathematical objects and devices that form the basis of factual claims asserted and, perhaps, believed by rational agents.3 The convention we analyze allows econometric reporting to proceed on the basis of trust.4 In contrast with Lewis, we shall demonstrate that such a convention is …
How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore
How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
Just as changes in atmospheric conditions affect weather forecasts, changes in monetary policy affect economic forecasts. When monetary policy shifts, forecasters change their predictions about growth and inflation. But does the economy change to the same extent that forecasts do? In this article, Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore examine forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.
How Useful Are Forecasts Of Corporate Profits, Dean D. Croushore
How Useful Are Forecasts Of Corporate Profits, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
If forecasters predict higher earnings for corporations, the stock market will rise. Stock prices will drop with a forecast of lower earnings. But are such forecasts on the money? Dean Croushore uses data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to check the accuracy of forecasts of corporate profits. The results show that, despite the volatility of corporate profits, the forecasts are rational.