Econometrics Commons^™

Econometric Modeling Of Regional Electricity Spot Prices In The Australian Market, Michael S. Smith, Thomas S. Shively

Michael Stanley Smith

Macroconstants Of Development: A New Benchmark For The Strategic Development Of Advanced Countries And Firms, Andrey Bystrov, Vyacheslav Yusim, Tamilla Curtis

Dr. Tamilla Curtis

This research proposed a new indicator of countries’ development called “macroconstants of development”. The literature review indicates that the concept of "macroconstants of development" is not used at the moment in neither the theory nor the practice of industrial policy. Research of longitudinal data of total GDP, GDP per capita and their derivatives for most countries of the world was conducted. An analysis of statistical information has been done by employing econometric analyses.

Based on the analysis of the statistical data, which characterizes the development of large, technologically advanced countries in ordinary conditions, it was identified that the average acceleration …

Price Discontinuities In The Market For Rins, Charles F. Mason, Neil A. Wilmot

Charles F Mason

No abstract provided.

Polluters’ Profits And Political Response: Direct Control Versus Taxes: Comment, Robert S. Main, Charles W. Baird

Robert S. Main

In a recent issue of this Review, James Buchanan and Gordon Tullock (B-T) presented a public choice analysis of the relative merits of direct controls and taxes in externality control. In Section IV of their paper, B-T consider the case of reciprocal external diseconomies of consumption. They ask whether "... persons in this sort of interaction, acting through the political processes of the community, will impose on themselves either a penalty tax or direct regulation" (p. 143). Their analysis is carried out within the context of a two-person model in which each person consumes the same quantity of a good …

From Amazon To Apple: Modeling Online Retail Sales, Purchase Incidence And Visit Behavior, Anastasios Panagiotelis, Michael S. Smith, Peter Danaher

Michael Stanley Smith

In this study we propose a multivariate stochastic model for website visit duration, page views, purchase incidence and the sale amount for online retailers. The model is constructed by composition from carefully selected distributions, and involves copula components. It allows for the strong nonlinear relationships between the sales and visit variables to be explored in detail, and can be used to construct sales predictions. The model is readily estimated using maximum likelihood, making it an attractive choice in practice given the large sample sizes that are commonplace in online retail studies. We examine a number of top-ranked U.S. online retailers, …

The Shadow Economy, Colin C. Williams, Friedrich Schneider

Colin C Williams

No abstract provided.

Alternative Estimators Of Cointegrating Parameters In Models With Non-Stationary Data: An Application To Us Export Demand, James Forest, Paul Turner

James J Forest

This paper presents Monte Carlo simulations which compare the empirical performance of two alternative single equation estimators of the equilibrium parameters in a dynamic relationship. The estimators considered are Stock and Watson’s dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator and Bewley’s transformation of the general autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that the Bewley transformation produces a lower mean-square error as well as superior serial correlation properties even with lower truncation lags for the lagged variables included in the estimation equation. An application is then provided which examines the nature of the equilibrium relationship between aggregate US exports, world trade …

How You Estimate The Yield Curve Matters!, Luiz Paulo Fichtner, Pedro Santa-Clara

Luiz Paulo Fichtner

We evaluate a two-factor Cox et al. (1985a,b) model using Euribor zero-coupon yields. We estimate this model using a state-space framework, where we sum a log-likelihood function of the state vector dynamics to a log-likelihood function of cross-section pricing errors. We introduce a likelihood-scaling weight in the joint log-likelihood function and show that there is a tradeoff in how one estimates a yield curve. Giving more weight to the cross-section of pricing errors improves the fitting and forecasting of Euribor yields, while giving more weight to the log-likelihood function of the state vector dynamics improves interest rate derivative pricing at …

Out-Of-Sample Predictability Of Bond Returns, Luiz Paulo Fichtner, Pedro Santa-Clara

Luiz Paulo Fichtner

We test the out-of-sample predictive power for one-year bond excess returns for a vari- ety of models that have been proposed in the literature. We find that these models perform well in sample, but have worse out-of-sample performance than the historical sample mean. We write the one-year excess return on a n-maturity bond at time t + 1 as the difference between n times the n-maturity bond yield at time t, and the sum of n − 1 times the (n − 1)-maturity bond yield at time t + 1 and the one-year bond yield at time t. Instead of …

Estimating The Narcotic Effect Of Public Sector Impasse Procedures, Richard J. Butler, Ronald G. Ehrenberg

Ronald G. Ehrenberg

This paper first describes in a relatively nontechnical fashion several econometric techniques that the authors believe should be useful to industrial relations researchers. Those techniques are then applied to an analysis of whether public sector impasse procedures create a "narcotic effect," that is, a tendency for the bargaining parties, once they use the procedures, to become increasingly reliant on them in future negotiations. The authors reanalyze data from Thomas Kochan and Joan Baderschneider’s study of the impasse experience of police and firefighters under New York State’s Taylor Law during the 1968-76 period and find that while a narcotic effect did …

The Effect Of Treasury Auction Announcements On Interest Rates: 1990-1999, James J. Forest

James J Forest

In this study we examine the secondary-market response of U.S. Treasury interest rates to both the release of pre-auction auction supply announcements and post-auction details from U.S. Treasury auctions during the period of the 1990s. Rate changes are found to differ significantly on auction days. Pre-auction announcements of auction volumes are shown to affect rates significantly, in contrast with the findings of Wachtel and Young (1987) with respect to deficit announcements. We find that surprises in the release of bid-to-cover ratios affect Treasury rates significantly, while the surprises in the volume of noncompetitive bids appears to have little affect on …

“El Desarrollo Municipal En Tamaulipas Y Su Relación Con La Competitividad, 1990-2010”, Ramiro Esqueda-Walle

Ramiro Esqueda-Walle

*Se proporciona texto completo mediante solicitud.resquedaw@uat.edu.mx
*Full text upon request.resquedaw@uat.edu.mx

The Role Of The Law In The Availability Of Public Transit And Affordable Housing In Atlanta’S West End, Elliott Lipinsky

ELLIOTT LIPINSKY

The Federal Transit Administration (FTA) is a branch of the U.S. Department of Transportation that administers federal funds and provides technical assistance for the support of locally operated public transit systems. MARTA / Atlanta metro area are part of FTA Region IV (the Southeast). FTA would be involved, for instance, in financing the federal grant monies discussed above. But actual regulation of operations (i.e., what MARTA does each day, or what MARTA will plan to do regionally) is more closely regulated by Georgia agencies.

Until recently, the Atlanta metropolitan area had no powerful central agency to coordinate regional transit. The …

Governance-Default Risk Relationship And The Demand For Intermediated And Non-Intermediated Debt, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

No abstract provided.

Daily Stock Market Movement From Oscillating Social Mood Factors, Cari Bourette

Cari Bourette

Since 2006, there has been ongoing research into the correlation of a set of oscillating mood factors and socioeconomic, geopolitical, and natural events with the goal of forecasting increased risks of destabilizing events. While promising results have been forthcoming, it has been difficult to present models that allowed those outside a small circle of specialists to participate. Between July 2007 and June 2010, weekly social mood projections, as published in monthly issues of MoodCompass, were used to develop a model to convert four oscillating mood factors into stock market expectations. This model was modified to generate signals of projected stock …

Cv, Lorán Chollete

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

International Diversification: An Extreme Value Approach, Lorán Chollete, Victor De La Peña, Ching-Chih Lu

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Women’S Decision Making: A Contextual Assessment, Safdar Khan

Safdar Khan

No abstract provided.

Are Ceos Expected Utility Maximizers?, John List, Charles Mason

Charles F Mason

Are individuals expected utility maximizers? This question represents much more than academic curiosity. In a normative sense, at stake are the fundamental underpinnings of the bulk of the last half-century’s models of choice under uncertainty. From a positive perspective, the ubiquitous use of benefit-cost analysis across government agencies renders the expected utility maximization paradigm literally the only game in town. In this study, we advance the literature by exploring CEO’s preferences over small probability, high loss lotteries. Using undergraduate students as our experimental control group, we find that both our CEO and student subject pools exhibit frequent and large departures …

Factors Effecting Job Satisfaction Of Employees In Pakistani Banking Sector, Ahmed Imran Hunjra, Muhammad Irfan Chani, Sher Aslam, Muhammad Azam, Kashif -Ur- Rehman

Muhammad Irfan Chani

Market Efficiency At The Derby: A Real Horse Race, Steven D. Dolvin, Mark K. Pyles

Steven D. Dolvin

Using race data from each Kentucky Derby from 1920 to 2005, we examine whether the horse wagering market is efficient. Most prior studies in this arena test potential betting strategies that rely on posted odds, generally finding that it is extremely difficult to devise and implement any consistently successful wager (i.e., market efficiency). We extend these studies by examining underlying determinants of posted race odds, specifically focusing on the experience of auxiliary members (e.g., jockey, breeder and trainer) associated with each entrant. We find that past Derby experience is an important determinant of posted odds and that the odds-making system …

Market Efficiency At The Derby: A Real Horse Race, Steven D. Dolvin, Mark K. Pyles

Steven D. Dolvin

Using race data from each Kentucky Derby from 1920 to 2005, we examine whether the horse wagering market is efficient. Most prior studies in this arena test potential betting strategies that rely on posted odds, generally finding that it is extremely difficult to devise and implement any consistently successful wager (i.e., market efficiency). We extend these studies by examining underlying determinants of posted race odds, specifically focusing on the experience of auxiliary members (e.g., jockey, breeder and trainer) associated with each entrant. We find that past Derby experience is an important determinant of posted odds and that the odds-making system …

Knowledge, Capabilities And Manufacturing Innovation: A Us-Europe Comparison, Stephen Roper, Jan Youtie, Philip Shapira, Andrea Fernandez-Ribas

Andrea Fernandez-Ribas

This paper presents a comparative analysis of factors contributing to the innovation performance of manufacturing firms in Georgia (USA), Wales (UK), the West Midlands (UK), and Catalonia (Spain). Enabled by comparable survey data, multivariate probit models are developed to estimate how various types of firms’ innovative activities are influenced by links to external knowledge sources, internal resources, absorptive capacity, and public innovation support. The results suggest the potential for mutual learning. For the European study regions there are insights about how universities in Georgia support innovation. For Georgia and Catalonia there are lessons from UK firms about better capturing potential …

International Diversification: A Copula Approach, Lorán Chollete, Victor De La Pena, Ching-Chih Lu

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

"Análisis Espacial De La Competitividad A Nivel Municipal: Una Aplicación Del Análisis Exploratorio De Datos Espaciales", Ramiro Esqueda-Walle

Ramiro Esqueda-Walle

En este artículo se asume implícitamente la hipótesis de que el nivel de competitividad en su forma territorial (en este caso municipal) determina al nivel de desarrollo humano, no obstante, tratar de corroborar esta relación implica realizar un trabajo de naturaleza confirmatoria (por ejemplo, un modelo econométrico espacial) mismo que no forma parte de los objetivos de este trabajo, ya que se considera necesario tener un primer acercamiento al fenómeno de estudio y para ello resulta muy útil el Análisis Exploratorio de Datos Espaciales (AEDE). Entonces se echa mano de diversas herramientas del AEDE para evaluar la situación intermunicipal en …

Employee Voice And Intent To Leave: An Empirical Evidence Of Pakistani Banking Sector, Ahmed Imran Hunjra, Muhammad Asghar Ali, Muhammad Irfan Chani, Hashim Khan, Kashif Ur Rehman

Muhammad Irfan Chani

Alternative Estimators Of Cointegrating Parameters In Models With Non-Stationary Data: An Application To Us Export Demand (Working Paper), James J. Forest, Paul Turner

James J Forest

This paper presents Monte Carlo simulations which compare the empirical performance of two alternative single equation estimators of the equilibrium parameters in a dynamic relationship. The estimators considered are Stock and Watson’s dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimator and Bewley’s transformation of the general autoregressive distributed lag model. The results indicate that the Bewley transformation produces a lower mean-square error as well as superior serial correlation properties even with lower truncation lags for the lagged variables included in the estimation equation. An application is then provided which examines the nature of the equilibrium relationship between aggregate US exports, world trade …

Functional Programs For Money Changes In Banking System, Vijaya Krushna Varma Mr

VIJAYA KRUSHNA VARMA Mr

Varma developed new banking system for auto adjusted money supply without any external regulators.

Financial Distress And Idiosyncratic Volatility: An Empirical Investigation, Lorán Chollete, Jing Chen, Rina Ray

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Financial Implications Of Extreme And Rare Events, Lorán Chollete, Dwight Jaffee

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.