Econometrics Commons^™

Hierarchical Bayesian Evidence On Cbdc Adoption: The Case Of Indonesia’S Digital Rupiah, Akbar Syahid Rabbani, Jongsu Lee

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study analyzed accessibility, privacy, transferability, and interest rates related to the adoption of Digital Rupiah, Indonesia’s Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), among rural and urban consumers. Findings from a hierarchical Bayesian model show that mobile applications are the main acquisition channel, and enhanced transferability with bank accounts and electronic money boosts consumer utility. However, there are concerns about fully anonymous transactions, differentiated by socio-demographic profiles (age, income, education, and knowledge). Scenario analysis suggests the potential CBDC adoption rate in Indonesia could range from 38% to 55%, influenced by privacy levels and the central bank’s interest rates.

Crop Yield Shocks And Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa: Subnational Evidence From Satellite-Based Yield Predictions, Benson I. Adomako

Master's Theses

This paper examines whether crop yields affect violent conflict at the subnational level across seven Sub-Saharan African countries: Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Mali, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, and Tanzania, over the period 2010 to 2024. A central identification challenge is that observed yields are endogenous to conflict: armed violence disrupts planting, cultivation, and harvest. To address this, I train a machine learning model on observed maize yield and satellite and environmental features to generate predicted yields for 1,338 second-level administrative districts annually. These predictions serve as the key regressor in a two-way fixed-effects panel with district and year fixed effects. I find …

Fueling Reactions: Three Empirical Essays On Behavioral Responses, Economic Shocks, And Energy Markets, Euclides Coelho De Medeiros Correia

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation examines how shocks in energy and commodity markets propagate through local economies and reshape human behavior, spanning three empirical essays that connect energy markets to electoral behavior, commodity price dynamics, and criminal violence.

The Impatience Of Winning: An Analysis Of Time Discounting, Predictive Modeling, And The Nba Draft, Alec R. Plante

Business and Economics Honors Papers

This paper examines whether NBA draft decisions can be better explained by incorporating non-geometric time discounting into a model of general manager decision making. Using a dataset of 285 NBA draft prospects over a 12-year period, the impact of college statistics on Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) is determined, and these impact values are then used to create a “predicted” VORP for the first 4 seasons of each player’s career: a projection of what a general manager might think of a prospect’s future value given their college statistics. Following this, geometric and hyperbolic time discounting models are applied to estimate …

Air Pollution And Self-Reported Health Outcomes In The United States, Alina Dervisevic

Theses and Dissertations

This study examines the relationship between short-term PM2.5 exposure and self-reported health outcomes among U.S. adults using BRFSS data from 2000 to 2012 linked to county-level pollution and weather data. Results show that PM2.5 exposure is associated with worse mental health and gender specific behavioral responses.

The Economics Of Accountability: Learning From German Holocaust Reparations, Grace I. Gates

Scripps Senior Theses

Drawing on microdata from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe, this study compares European Holocaust survivors who received reparations with similar Europeans who did not. It finds that, decades on, recipients are not systematically better or worse off on core outcomes like life satisfaction, savings, and debt. This is consistent with the argument that reparations restore parity rather than create new advantages. Where differences emerge, they point to stabilization in more vulnerable settings (e.g., lower likelihood of high debt in parts of Eastern Europe). The main takeaway from effective reparations is applicable to the United States debate: …

The Impact Of Student Achievement On Economic Growth: A Pisa-Based Analysis Of Gdp Per Capita, Emma Rose Nasr

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This study investigates the extent to which international student achievement, measured through PISA assessments in mathematics, reading, and science, explains cross-country differences in economic development. Using an unbalanced panel data set combining PISA results from 2015, 2018, and 2022 with macroeconomic indicators from the World Development Indicators, I estimate multiple regression models, including pooled OLS, country and time fixed effects, and subsample analyses for developed and developing countries. Results from the pooled model indicate strong positive associations between PISA scores and GDP per capita, consistent with human capital theory. However, these relationships diminish under fixed effects specifications, suggesting that cross-country …

Factors Correlated With State-Level Variation In Grocery Consumption Changes During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Sun Young Byun

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I employ a two-part empirical strategy to explore the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on grocery consumption across U.S. states. First, I use the United States Department of Agriculture's Weekly Retail Food Sales data from 2018-2023 to estimate a time-series panel model. I use the results to test three hypotheses regarding state-level variation in consumption changes and impacts in the initial pandemic period, the remaining pandemic period, and the post-pandemic period. Second, I use the estimated state-level effects as dependent variables in cross-sectional regressions to test three hypotheses linking variation in state-level consumption patterns to economic, demographic, …

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

Housing Burden And Insurance Expenditures, Melanie M. Lytell

Honors Capstones

Housing costs shape the way families spend on protection and security. This study looks at how the share of income devoted to housing, the housing burden, influences household spending on four types of insurance: vehicle, life, personal, and health. Using data from nearly 92,000 households and regression models that account for state differences, I find that even small increases in housing burden shift insurance choices in meaningful ways. A one‑percentage‑point rise in housing burden is linked to a 2.1% increase in vehicle insurance spending and a 0.5% increase in life insurance, but a 0.7% decrease in personal insurance and a …

Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

The current study investigates the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu (G 22). The study focuses on two objectives: the first objective is to describe the plant folk taxonomy in Chasu and the second objective is to determine the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu. Data were collected from rural villages in Same and Mwanga districts by using free listing, field interviews (jungle-walk-and-identify), and written texts containing Chasu plant names. The findings reveal that Chasu folk taxonomy reflects different ethnobotanical categories; including a unique beginner which is mmea/mimea ‘plant(s)’, and three life …

Criminal Behavior Responses To Changing Penalties: Estimating The Impact Of Felony Theft Threshold Changes, Ezra R. Simmons

All Theses

This study estimates how criminal behavior changes in response to shifts in felony theft thresholds, contributing to broader evidence on the deterrent effects of criminal penalties. Using detailed incident-level crime reports, this study applies econometric techniques to evaluate how offenders responded to reduced penalties. Analyzed within is California’s Proposition 47, which raised the felony threshold for theft-related offenses from $450 to $950. The results show a significant increase in low-level shoplifting (approximately 21%) and more substantial rises (approximately 24% to 30%) in crimes within the threshold overlap ($450 to $950). Additionally, the value stolen in crimes below the $450 threshold …

The Dynamics Of Word-Of-Mouth Marketing: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach To Message Credibility And Consumer Engagement, Ali Nasirzonouzi, Carlos Gershenson

Northeast Journal of Complex Systems (NEJCS)

Word-of-mouth (WOM) marketing is a critical factor in the dissemination of information and adoption of products in social networks. This paper investigates the impact of two important factors message credibility and consumer engagement on WOM adoption dynamics using agent-based modeling (ABM). This study proposes a simple qualitative model to investigate how these factors influence adoption rates through both broadcast communication and peer-to-peer influence by simulating interactions on a spatially clustered network.

The findings show that increased message credibility significantly boosts adoption, achieving a balance between broadcast and social mechanisms. Also, consumer engagement primarily affects the adoption mechanism, shifting the effect …

Environmental-Friendly Consumption: Measuring The Impact Of Lifestyle On Household Carbon Emissions, Faisal Madjid Alyasa, Adam Hawari, Afif Akbar Syawala, Estro Dariatno Dariatno Sihaloho

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

In 2060, Indonesia aims for a clean, emissions-free society. However, achieving this goal requires understanding how lifestyle choices affect household carbon emissions. This study, based on data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey 2014, examines the impact of different diets (plant-based, vegetarian, Mediterranean, full meat-based, and mixed) on carbon emissions. Using Ordinary Least Square Panel Data Regression, the research finds that plant-based and vegetarian diets have a lower carbon footprint compared to mixed and full meat-based diets. The findings suggest that transitioning to more environmentally friendly consumption patterns can help reduce carbon emissions and benefit the environment.

The Hidden Logic Behind Migration And Success, Elsa Russom

Master's Projects and Capstones

This research paper explores the hidden drivers of financial success among Eritrean migrants navigating uncertainty, displacement, and limited institutional access. Drawing on original survey data collected from diaspora communities across East African host countries, I apply a mixed-methods framework combining ordinal and binary logistic regression, random forest classification, bootstrapping, and Bayesian causal mediation; to identify the structural and cultural variables most predictive of financial stability. The findings reveal that participation in Ekub, a traditional rotating savings association, and engagement in communal support systems are the strongest predictors of financial success, outperforming conventional factors such as age, education, or employment status. …

Health Crisis And Currency Risk: Fresh Evidence From New Data Sets, Afees A. Salisu, Dinci J. Penzin, Yinka S. Hammed

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

With the aid of a method of predictability analysis that involves a feasible quasigeneralized least squares estimator, we examine the predictive power associated with the newly computed COVID-19 indices, which are disaggregated into six indices for currency market risks (realized volatility of exchange rate). Our sample size covers the period between December 31, 2019, and December 28, 2021. We note mixed outcomes for the major currency markets considered. On average, while the health crisis seems to have heightened the risks associated with Pounds Sterling, Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar against USD, it exerts a moderating effect on the Euro, Yen …

What About The Buyers? Deriving Factors Of Demand In The U.S. Black Market, Eric S. Schneider

Undergraduate Theses

The vast majority of econometric research regarding black markets focuses on the supply. Relatively little information is definitively shown in academic literature regarding the drivers of demand for black markets. This project seeks to identify factors of demand for black market goods and services. First, this paper gives a brief definition of the broad definition of black markets, before specifically defining the scope of individual markets which will be included in this project. Next, there is a brief review of recent literature on the U.S. black market in order to determine prime candidates for factors of demand. Then, a robust …

Analyzing Real-Time Behavioral Shifts In Response To Tourism Policy Using Google Trends Data And Advanced Difference-In-Differences (Did) Methods, Aaron Bradley Scott

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

Google Trends is a publicly available aggregate search data portal that allows researchers to capture and review search interests. This dissertation analyzes real-time behavioral shifts resulting from tourism policy changes in Venice, Italy using Google Trends data. This work contributes to the current literature in DiD modeling, by using information-seeking behavior that is ahead of observable, lagged, outcomes. Through the integration of recent DiD advancements, this work further extends DiD applications in tourism econometrics, and a case-example of real-world tourism policy assessment. This dissertation highlights changes in search behavior immediately following policy implementation. Additionally, this work highlights Google Trends as …

Clutch Or Comfortable? How Franchise Tags Influence Qb Performance In The Nfl, Justin Edwards

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The National Football League (NFL) has a type of contract known as the Franchise Tag. The Franchise Tag is a one-year contractual extension often used when a player and a team cannot come to terms regarding the details of a contract extension. Usually, the player expects to be paid more than the organization can afford that year due to restrictions imposed by the salary cap. Because of this, Franchise-Tagged players tend to have a greater incentive to perform well in hopes of being signed into a long-term contract. My findings show that the incentive of future earnings and job …

The Impact Of Technological Change On Achieving Sustainable Development: Panel Data Analysis On Emerging Countries (2004-2024), Mayar Walid Al, Ahmed Tarek Ta

Future Journal of Social Science

This study examines the impact of technological change on sustainable development in five emerging economies—Egypt, China, Brazil, India, and Turkey—over the period from 2004 to 2024 (World Bank, 2020; ITU, 2022). It seeks to understand how advancements in information and communication technologies, renewable energy, and manufacturing processes shape economic, social, and environmental sustainability (Geels et al., 2017; UNEP, 2021). Using panel data analysis, the research quantifies the relationship between technological indicators, such as ICT penetration and renewable energy adoption, and sustainable development outcomes, including GDP growth, environmental health, and social inclusion (Sadorsky, 2010; Shahbaz et al., 2016).

The findings reveal …

Striking A Balance: Market Shock & Responses In Automotive Components Manufacturing, Emma Lane Mcgahey

All Theses

This thesis examines the effects of extreme market shocks on supply chain dynamics within the automotive industry. Through an analysis of demand data from an automotive manufacturer to its component suppliers (January 2018 to May 2024), the study investigates the relationship between market shocks and supply chain responses, providing insights into how auto components inventory management handles downstream responses to market shocks. With supporting public data—from FRED, BLS, and the U.S. Census Bureau resources—we explore two primary relationships: the impact of market shocks on the Average Standard Deviation of Demand (SDO) and the effect of demand variability on expedited pricing …

The Influence Of Socio-Economic Constraints On Women's Economic Empowerment In Kenya: Evidence Of Wage Disparities?, Wairimu Kimani

McNair Summer Research Program

This study presents an econometric analysis of socio-economic factors which influence wage inequalities in Kenya. This study tests the hypothesis that women experience cross sectoral gender wage disparities which are influenced by cultural and social expectations. Linear, logistic, factorial regressions models and the Mann-Whitney test were utilized to identify statistical determinants of the gender-wage gap through disproportionate educational outcomes, labor outcomes, and social outcomes. The outcomes reflect that education and other demographic factors play a pivotal role in the wage and employment outcomes for women in Kenya. The results suggest that cultural implications are the main influence to the socio-economic …

Measurement Reliability For Intentions To Change Behavior, Emily Schlichtig

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

It is common for researchers to ask participants to associate probabilities with words, often using tools like the Likert scale to measure behavioral intentions and attitudes. However, it remains unclear what specific probabilities participants assign to the response options on a Likert scale, how much variation exists across these options, and whether these probabilities differ across various behaviors. The purpose of this paper is to explore the numeric probabilities that participants associate with different Likert scale points, to understand their perception of the variation at each point, and to compare these perceptions across three behaviors: eating more vegetables, exercising more, …

Exploring The Motivations And Determinants Of Farmer’S Market Consumers And Organic Specialty Crop Producers, Jane Arnold

All Theses

This two-chapter thesis evaluates the motivations and determinants of the central figures in farmers’ markets and organic markets. The first chapter explores the rise of farmers’ markets popularity through an in-person survey that was designed and distributed to 274 farmers' market consumers. Logit and ordered logit regressions were used to identify the motivations and characteristics that affect the likelihood of being a frequent farmers’ market customer (visiting 5 times or more per season) and spending over $50. The second chapter investigates the organic markets for cucumber and kale, which are dominant specialty crops on today’s grocery shelves. To identify the …

The Effect Of Crime On Tourism In Indonesia, Muhammad Farhan, Hera Susanti

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

Tourism sector is widely known as one of economic sectors that can be the engine of economic growth in an effort to reduce poverty in a country. However, growth in the tourism sector can be influenced by safety factors. Tourists tend to avoid tourism destination areas with high crime rates in order to avoid becoming victims of crime. This study aims to analyze the effect of crime on the number of tourist arrivals in Indonesia by using four proxies of crime, which are total crime rate, property crime rate, violent crime rate, and fraud crime rate. This study utilizes a …

The Relationship Between Monetary Policy And The Stock Market Cycle: An Empirical Study In Vietnam, Nhung Thuy Tran

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

The study examines the relationship between monetary policy and the stock market cycle in Vietnam. Using data from 2007 to 2022 and employing a VAR model, we estimate the impact of monetary policy factors on stock market cycle variables. The findings confirm a two-way causal relationship between monetary policy and the stock market cycle. However, the influence of cyclical fluctuations on the monetary policy transmission mechanism is weak, exhibits a lag, and predominantly occurs in the medium and long term. These results indicate that Vietnam's monetary policy requires time to absorb financial shocks and adjust to economic conditions. The study …

Essays On Cryptocurrency Assets, Minwoo Song

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1 - Herd Instinct in the Digital Currency Markets: In this chapter, We establish that the actions of influential opinion leaders in the digital currency markets and potential investors following their lead drive abnormal cryptocurrency returns. We develop a psychological and behavioral factor, named the herd behavior index, that detects the herd instinct of the investors in cryptocurrency markets and captures anomalies in cryptocurrency returns. Our finding shows that the herd behavior index can explain the variation in cryptocurrency returns. Moreover, there exists a time-series relationship between abnormal returns and the investors’ herd instinct, and the herd behavior index …

Trade Liberalization, Non-Oil Export And Economic Growth In Nigeria, Jerome T. Andohol, Terhemen Tarzoor, Dennis T. Nomor

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study examines the impact of trade liberalization and non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2021. The study utilizes an autoregressive distributed lag model and found the combined effect of trade liberalization and non-oil exports to be positive and statistical significant. While trade liberalization alone may have negative consequences, its synergy with a robust non-oil export can drive sustainable economic growth. The study recommends that strategies to enhance non-oil exports should be encouraged to support the effectiveness of trade liberalization in promoting growth.

Stock Market Volatility In The United Kingdom: Simulating Post-Covid-19 Recovery, Bala A. Dahiru, Mohammed Shuaibu, Najibullah Hassanov

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the time it would take for the FTSE-100 index to reach its post-COVID-19 peak. The paper utilises an exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) model that accounts for leverage effect and asymmetries. The preferred models amongst competing variants was the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA)-EGARCH(2,1) specification and was used to predict daily FTSE-100 data from 5th January 2000 to 21st June 2024. The empirical exercise showed that the COVID-19-induced financial crisis negatively affected the United Kingdom’s stock market performance. The results show that the FTSE100 index could reach its post-pandemic peak around 27th August, 2024 (two months after …