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Full-Text Articles in Behavioral Economics
An Application Of Prospect Theory: The Effect Of Trailing At Halftime On Winning Nfl Games, Kian R. Sohrabi
An Application Of Prospect Theory: The Effect Of Trailing At Halftime On Winning Nfl Games, Kian R. Sohrabi
Economics Honors Projects
Trailing in sports is associated with losing, but can trailing operate as a powerful motivator that leads to winning? Based on research by Berger and Pope (2011), this study applies Prospect Theory and loss aversion to football to test if trailing by a small margin can motivate success. This relationship is analyzed based on teams’ point differentials at halftime since halftime operates as a salient reference point and a time for teams to regroup and strategize. Analysis of over 12,000 NFL games found no significant effect of trailing at halftime on the likelihood of winning. That is, there is little …
Does A Better Running Back Mean More Rushing? Game Theory And The Nfl, Eric Lofquist
Does A Better Running Back Mean More Rushing? Game Theory And The Nfl, Eric Lofquist
Honors Scholar Theses
In this paper I attempt to answer the question of whether or not teams in the National Football League (NFL) rush less with a better running back. This seems counterintuitive, but game theory supposes that this is true. Defenses facing a better running back will generally expect the offense to rush more and therefore defend the run more often. The offense, foreseeing the defense’s actions, will choose to pass more to counteract the run defense. This is the basis of the difference between the strategic effect and the direct effect in mixed strategies. The direct effect is when a player …
Reverse Line Movements In Nfl Gambling: Parallels To Financial Market Biases And The Imitation Of Informed Bettor Strategies, Philip S. Crawford
Reverse Line Movements In Nfl Gambling: Parallels To Financial Market Biases And The Imitation Of Informed Bettor Strategies, Philip S. Crawford
CMC Senior Theses
Participants in the NFL gambling market can largely be divided into two distinct groups: informed bettors (“Sharps”) and uninformed bettors (“Squares”). Empirical and anecdotal evidence suggest that the dynamic between Sharp and Square bettors is very similar to that between institutional and retail investors. Professionals tend to be far better informed and utilize rational betting/investing strategies while individuals exhibit biases which perpetuate irrational strategies and therefore pricing inefficiencies. This study finds that uninformed participants in financial markets and the NFL betting market do share similar biases, and that these biases can be exploited by informed participants to generate positive excess …