Behavioral Economics Commons^™

The Effects Of Income On Health: Evidence From Lottery Wins In Singapore, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

We estimate the causal effects of household income on self-reported health status by exploiting random variations in the amount of lottery prizes won. We find that a S$10,000 (US$7,245) increase in income via lottery wins improves individuals’ health by a standard deviation of 0.18. As possible mechanisms, we find that lottery wins increase household consumption spending and improve overall life satisfaction, but do not change healthcare spending, labor supply, and risky health behavior. Previous studies, which focused on the health effects of lottery prizes in Western European countries with strong social safety nets, do not find positive effects other than …

Pregnancy Persistently Reduces Alcohol Purchases: Causal Evidence From Scanner Data, Aljoscha Janssen, Elle Parslow

Research Collection School Of Economics

We analyze household-level changes in alcohol consumption in response to pregnancy. Using scanner data, we identify households with a pregnant household member. Within an event study and a dynamic difference-in-differences estimation, we find that during a first pregnancy, households reduce their alcohol purchases by 36%. After pregnancy, purchases of alcohol are 34% lower than before pregnancy. We do not find any effect during the second pregnancy. One possible explanation for our result is that lower consumption during pregnancy changes habits and reduces consumption in the long term. We discuss other explanations and comment on policy implications.

Staying Connected: The Importance Of Social Integration On The Well-Being Of Older Adults, Paulin T. Straughan, Vincent Chua, Stephen Hoskins, Frosch Quek

ROSA Research Briefs

It has been about a year since COVID-19 first emerged and reshaped the daily lives of people around the globe, including Singaporeans. Since moving past the circuit breaker in June, Singapore has gradually re-opened and relaxed its restrictions in different phases. As Singapore prepares for Phase 3- the final and least restrictive phase, it is important to examine how Singaporeans have coped and responded with the circuit breaker (7 April 2020) and its gradual easing of restriction in Phase 1 (2nd June 2020) and Phase 2 (19 June 2020), and identify the groups which have fallen through the gaps in …

Decomposing Duration Dependence: Skill Depreciation Vs. Statistical Discrimination, Ismail Baydur, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a random matching model with unobserved worker heterogeneity and learning about worker types from unemployment duration. The model features negative duration dependence that stems from unobserved heterogeneity as well as statistical discrimination and skill depreciation. We estimate our model using micro-level data from Current Population Survey (CPS) and we decompose the contribution of each channel to job finding rates by duration. We find that shutting down statistical discrimination substantially increases the job finding rates of the long-term unemployed while skill depreciation mainly affects the medium-term unemployed.

Housing Equity And Household Consumption In Retirement: Evidence From The Singapore Life Panel©, Lipeng Chen, Liang Jiang, Sock Yong Phang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Housing affordability for elderly homeowners involves an entirely different set of issues as compared to housing affordability for first-time homeowners. To afford to ‘age-in-place’ may require homeowners to access channels that enable them to withdraw their housing equity to finance consumption in retirement. We utilize data from the Singapore Life Panel© survey to empirically investigate the impact of housing equity on the consumption of elderly households. Based on panel analysis, we find housing equity value has no significant impact on non-durable consumption for elderly people. The conclusion holds for a battery of robustness checks. Moreover, heterogeneity analyses based on subsamples …

Does Early Access To Pension Wealth Improve Health?, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

We examine the health impacts of early access to public pension wealth by exploiting a unique policy in Singapore allowing individuals to withdraw a proportion of their pension savings after their 55th birthday. For the identification, we employ a regression discontinuity design by comparing individuals before and after their 55th birthday. To address anticipated and lagged health impacts, we adopt the donut regression discontinuity approach. Using nationally representative monthly panel data, we find that early access to pension wealth improves self‐reported overall health.

Covid-19, Lockdown, And The Dynamics Of Subjective Well-Being, Terence C. Cheng, Kim, Kanghyock Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

We provide novel evidence on how the COVID-19 global health and economic crisis is affecting overall life satisfaction and domain-specific satisfaction using data from a monthly longitudinal survey of middle-aged and older Singaporeans. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we document large declines in overall life satisfaction and domain-specific satisfaction during the COVID-19 outbreak, except satisfaction with health. These declines coincide with the introduction of a nationwide lockdown, with life satisfaction remaining below its pre-pandemic levels even after the lockdown is lifted. We also find that individuals who report a drop in household income during the COVID-19 outbreak experience a decline in …

Spending Impact Of Covid-19 Stimulus Payments: Evidence From Card Transaction Data In South Korea, Kim, Kanghyock Koh, Wonjun Lyou

Research Collection School Of Economics

Various countries have implemented transfer programs to individuals since the Covid-19 outbreaks. However, the extent to which such transfers alleviate economic recessions is unclear. This paper analyzes a South Korean program, which provided vouchers redeemable only at small local businesses. We find that, due to the program, over 30% of households across all income groups increased their food and overall household spending, but the usage restriction may have affected consumer choice, distorting business competition. While the employment and sales of small businesses improved, the program’s fiscal sustainability is in question because of the large tax exemption.

Attitudes, Behaviours, And The Well-Being Of Older Singaporeans In The Time Of Covid-19: Perspectives From The Singapore Life Panel, Paulin T. Straughan, William Tov, Seonghoon Kim, Terence Cheng, Stephen Hoskins, Micah Tan

ROSA Research Briefs

COVID-19 has affected all Singaporeans, regardless of age and socioeconomic status (SES). Many measures have been implemented by the government to control the spread of this disease, including restrictions on social gatherings, restrictions on overseas travel, and making it compulsory to wear a mask. Measures have also included a partial lockdown – known as the ‘circuit breaker’ – which began in April 2020. This forced Singaporeans to quickly adapt to a new normal with some doing better than others. This research brief provides an overview of how COVID-19 and its related measures have affected seniors in Singapore using data from …

Measuring The Chinese Economic Impact Of Covid-19, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The COVID-19 outbreak currently sweeping around the globe with deadly results will create hardships for a good proportion of businesses in China while generating new opportunities for others, says Jing Wu, Assistant Professor at The Chinese University of Hong Kong’s Department of Decision Sciences and Managerial Economics.

Fertility And Rural Electrification In Bangladesh, Tomoki Fujii, Abu S. Shonchoy

Research Collection School Of Economics

We use contemporaneous and retrospective panel datasets to examine the household-level relationship between fertility and access to electricity in Bangladesh. We find that access to electricity reduces fertility by about 0.2 children over a period of five years or total fertility rate by about 1.2 in most estimates. This finding is robust with respect to the choice of the estimation method, the choice of sample, and potential presence of endogeneity. The finding also corroborates the theoretical predictions on time use and consumption pattern derived from our model of electrification and fertility. The results also suggest that television is an important …

Geography, Trade, And Internal Migration In China, Lin Ma, Yang Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper quantitatively studies the local welfare impacts of inter-city migration in China. We structurally estimate a trade model with endogenous migration decisions using data from 279 prefecture-level cities. The results suggest that inflows of migrant workers increase welfare in the destination cities between 2000 and 2005 despite their negative impacts on congestion and nominal wage. The positive local impacts of migration depend crucially on the endogenous firm entry. The positive impacts in the destination cities also spill over to the neighboring cities through inter-city trade, often leading to higher welfare gains in the nearby cities than the destination cities …

Cooling Measures And Housing Wealth: Evidence From Singapore, Wolfgang K. Hardle, Rainer Schulz, Taojun Xie

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Excessive house price growth was at the heart of the financial crisis in 2007/08. Since then, many countries have added cooling measures to their regulatory frameworks. It has been found that these measures can indeed control price growth, but no one has examined whether this has adverse consequences for the housing wealth distribution. We examine this for Singapore, which started in 2009 to target price growth over ten rounds in total. We find that welfare from housing wealth in the last round might not be higher than before 2009. This depends on the deflator used to convert nominal into real …

Tax Uncertainty And Business Activity, Jungho Lee, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the extent to which uncertainties about tax policies affect business activities. We develop a statewide tax-uncertainty measure (TU measure) and show that it captures state corporate tax uncertainty. By comparing adjacent counties across state borders, we show that increasing tax uncertainty by one standard deviation (a 30% increase in the TU measure) leads to a 0.17% point per-year decrease in the growth rate of establishments over two years. The result holds after conducting a variety of robustness checks and is not likely to be driven by general state-policy uncertainties.

Illusion Of Gender Parity In Education: Intrahousehold Resource Allocation In Bangladesh, Sijia Xu, Abu S. Shonchoy, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

A target in the Millennium Development Goals—gender parity in all levels of education—is widely considered to have been attained. However, measuring gender parity only through school enrollment is misleading, as girls may lag behind boys in other educational measures. We investigate this with four rounds of surveys from Bangladesh by decomposing households’ education decisions into enrollment, education expenditure, and share of the education expenditure allocated for the quality of education like private tutoring. We find a strong profemale bias in school enrollment but promale bias in the other two decisions. This contradirectional gender bias is unique to Bangladesh and partly …

Economic Cycles As A Source Of Social Influence On Individuals, Nina Sirola

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The current review summarizes emerging research in psychology and associated disciplines showing that the economic cycles exert social influence on individuals across a range of psychological domains. Most research on social influence focused on how factors in the proximal environment impact individuals, while influences emanating from the state of the economy as a whole received far less attention. I review the development of different intellectual traditions examining social influence to explain the relative lack of attention to economic cycles and position emerging work on the topic relative to past research. I then review research on how economic cycles influence individuals …

Central Place Theory And The Power Law For Cities, Wen-Tai Hsu, Zou Xin

Research Collection School Of Economics

This chapter provides a review of the link between central place theory and the power laws for cities. A theory of city size distribution is proposed via a central place hierarchy a la Christaller (1933) either as an equilibrium results or an optimal allocation. Under a central place hierarchy, it is shown that a power law for cities emerges if the underlying heterogeneity in economies of scale across good is regularly varying. Furthermore, we show that an optimal allocation of cities conforms with a central place hierarchy if the underlying heterogeneity in economies of scale across good is a power …

Why Are Americans So Divided On Refugee Policy?, Shilpa Madan, Shankha Basu, Aneeta Rattan, Krishna Savani

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The U.S. will resettle the lowest number of refugees in fiscal year 2019 since the Refugee Act was passed in 1980. After taking office, President Donald Trump reduced the admission limit from 110,000 in 2017 to 45,000 in 2018, and to 30,000 in 2019. The reduction is not a result of fewer refugees seeking resettlement. On the contrary, the number of people seeking resettlement is on the rise.

Stock Recommendations In China: Buyer Beware, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Research analysts have incentives to issue positive recommendations; social ties with fund managers exert considerable influence

Monthly Spending Dynamics Of The Elderly Following A Health Shock: Evidence From Singapore, Terence C. Cheng, Jing Li, Rhema Vaithianathan

Research Collection School Of Economics

We use novel longitudinal data from 19 monthly waves of the Singapore Life Panel to examine the short-term dynamics of the effects health shocks have on household health and non-health spending and income by the elderly. The health shocks we study are the occurrence of new major conditions such as cancer, heart problems, and minor conditions (e.g. diabetes, and hypertension). Our empirical strategy exploits unanticipated changes in health status through the diagnosis of new health conditions, combined with an individual fixed effect framework. We find that major shocks have large and persistent effects while minor shocks have small and mainly …

Potential Crime Risk And Housing Market Responses, Seonghoon Kim, Kwan Ok Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study how information on local (dis)amenities is transmitted and manifested in housing markets. Using nationwide data on multifamily homes in South Korea, we analyze heterogeneity in the effect of a sex offender's presence on sale prices and rents of nearby homes. Our results demonstrate that the price effect of the offender's move-in varies significantly by spatial context. People react more strongly and persistently to the move-in of the offender in places wherein indicators of social connectedness are stronger, such as places with relatively low population density. We also find that, unlike housing prices, rents do not change in response …

Has The Development Gap Between The Ethnic Minority And Majority Groups Narrowed In Vietnam?: Evidence From Household Surveys, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using household data for rural northern Vietnam between 1993 and 2014, we find that the ethnic minority group continued to lag behind the majority group in various development indicators despite the overall improvement in living standards. Our regression and decomposition analyses show that the structural differences between the two groups are an important cause of persistent development gap. However, the nature of structural differences changed over time and no single source of structural difference explains the persistent gap. We argue that more minority‐appropriate policies are needed to lift poor minority households out of poverty further and reduce the development gap.

Essays In Applied Microeconomics And Public Policy Evaluation, Yanying Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation comprises four papers that evaluate the effectiveness of public policies in Singapore. The first paper studies the non-tangible effect of a new non-contributory pension in Singapore on subjective well-being. The second investigates the effect of the same pension on labour supply, work expectations, private cash transfers and expenditure. The third evaluates a pragmatic randomised controlled trial of a new transitional care programme in a large quaternary hospital, while the fourth examines the effect of a large-scale housing upgrading programme on the resale prices of upgraded flats.

Chapter 2 looks at the non-tangible effect of a new non-contributory pension …

Public-Private Partnerships: The Pro-Poor Gap Evaluation, Tung Nhu Nguyen

Asian Management Insights

Improving the future design and implementation of public-private partnerships.

Future For Children In Indonesia: On Walking Out Of Poverty, Jonathan Chang, Christopher Dula

Asian Management Insights

A social enterprise project that has brought income and dignity to a remote community in Indonesia.

Essays In The Economics Of Health And Ageing, Yi Jin Tan

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of four papers in applied microeconomics / the economics of health and ageing that analyse the causal effect of public policies, or of events / issues amenable to policy intervention. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the papers in this dissertation.

Chapter 2 investigates whether a major and growing environmental disamenity – dengue fever – leads to protective behavior that increases residential electricity consumption. Being near a dengue cluster leads to a persistent increase in electricity consumption in 4-room and 5-room/bigger flats (by 1.7% and 1.1% respectively). In addition, electricity consumption rises discontinuously when a dengue cluster’s …

Income And Subjective Well-Being: Evidence From Singapore's First National Non-Contributory Pension, Yanying Chen, Yi Jin Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

We use a new monthly panel and a difference-in-differences strategy to study the effects of an exogenous permanent income shock on subjective well-being along previously unexplored dimensions. This permanent income shock is the introduction of Singapore’s first national non-contributory pension, the Silver Support Scheme. The pension improved the life satisfaction of recipients, and appeared to be driven by social, household income, and economic satisfaction. Consistent with the predictions of standard consumption-savings models, well-being improved when the shock was unanticipated (at announcement), but did not improve significantly further when the shock was anticipated (at disbursement). In addition, we find evidence that …

Inflation Expectations In Singapore: A Behavioural Approach, Alexander Clark, Aurobindo Ghosh, Samuel Hanes

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The expectations of economic agents have significant impact on their decisions and are key determinants of macroeconomic outcomes such as inflation, economic growth and unemployment. For example, if a worker believes that consumer prices will rise sharply next year, she would demand a wage increase. Similarly, a homeowner with a fixed interest mortgage might make an early repayment if she expects price levels to fall, knowing that the real value of her mortgage debt will increase. In these cases, expectations about inflation could lead to changes in behaviour and in the aggregate, influence prices and become self-fulfilling.

Deadlier Road Accidents? Traffic Safety Regulations And Heterogeneous Motorists’ Behavior, Christine Ho, Madhav S. Aney

Research Collection School Of Economics

In 2003, China enacted the Road Traffic Safety Law in an attempt to promote traffic safety.We employ a difference-in-differences strategy on province level data, where fire accidentsare used as a control group for road accidents, to estimate the effects of the law on road accidents and casualties. Our findings suggest that while the law was successful in decreasing thenumber of accidents and casualties, the ratio of deaths to accidents and injuries to accidentsincreased. Exploring the potential channels, we find no evidence that “hit-and-kill” incentives,that is, incentives for motorists to kill the pedestrians that they hit due to China’s peculiar personal …

Barriers To Labor Migration For The Rural Poor: Experimental Evidence From A Vocational Training Program In Bangladesh, Abu S. Shonchoy, Tomoki Fujii, Selim Raihan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Vocational training programs aimed at rapidly growing sectors have the potential to reduce skill gaps as well as improve income and employment possibilities. Such programs have often been unsuccessful because they are not driven by industry demand and market linkages. Also, they do not tackle other barriers faced by trainees, such as savings and credit constraints and the uncertainty of migration. We introduced a training "plus'' program for the apparel sector jobs offered to the poor, rural households in northern Bangladesh, where we relaxed some of these constraints in a rigorous Randomized Control Trial (RCT) setting. Analyzing the program uptake …