Economics Commons^™

Trade And Informality In The Presence Of Labor Market Frictions And Regulations, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Costas Meghir, Gabriel Ulyssea

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We build an equilibrium model of a small open economy with labor market frictions and imperfectly enforced regulations. Heterogeneous firms sort into the formal or informal sector. We estimate the model using data from Brazil, and use counterfactual simulations to understand how trade affects economic outcomes in the presence of informality. We show the following: 1) Trade openness unambiguously decreases informality in the tradable sector but has ambiguous effects on aggregate informality. 2) The productivity gains from trade are understated when the informal sector is omitted. 3) Trade openness results in large welfare gains even when informality is repressed. 4) …

The Economics Of Crime, Syed M. Hasnain Saeed

CBER Conference

Denomination of major crimes in Pakistan-KPK & Balochistan has the highest murder or attempt to murder rates. Sindh has the highest rate of Kidnappings and Punjab has the highest rate of theft. According to our research findings, 1 % point increase in unemployment increases country’s rankings in Crime Index by 0.455 Points.

The Poverty In Usa: An In-Depth Analysis Of The Last Two Decades, Sara Negri

Economics Theses & Dissertations

Poverty is a global problem that affects not only the undeveloped states but also the most developed ones. This research paper will analyze this problem in depth, trying to summarize several definitions, several causes that can lead to an increase in the poverty rate, and policies implemented by the government in order to reduce the total number of poor people. The author analyzed the poverty rate in each state of the United States from 1990 to 2019 using a panel data analysis. She found out that California is the state with the highest value of poor people in the U.S. …

Globalization, Trade Imbalances, And Labor Market Adjustment, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, João Paulo Pessoa, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, Sharon Traiberman

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We study the role of global trade imbalances in shaping the adjustment dynamics in response to trade shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multicountry, multisector model of trade with two key ingredients: 1) consumption-saving decisions in each country commanded by representative households, leading to endogenous trade imbalances, and 2) labor market frictions across and within sectors, leading to unemployment dynamics and sluggish transitions to shocks. We use the estimated model to study the behavior of labor markets in response to globalization shocks, including shocks to technology, trade costs, and intertemporal preferences (savings gluts). We find that modeling trade …

Income In The Off-Season: Household Adaptation To Yearly Work Interruptions, John Coglianese, Brendan M. Price

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Part 1: Inflection Point? Covid-19, Vaccines And The Recovery, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Commonwealth Reports

To say that most Virginians would prefer to forget 2020 might be an understatement. The COVID-19 pandemic threw tens of thousands of Virginians out of work, shuttered businesses and abruptly transitioned much of education into the world of remote learning. As 2021 draws to a close, the story has changed from one of shock to one of recovery. In this chapter, we examine the impact of the pandemic, the ongoing recovery and prospects for continued growth in 2022.

Strategies Worker-Owned Cooperatives Use To Remain Profitable During Economic Downturns, Termaine Davis

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

New managers of worker-owned cooperatives who fail to adapt to changing conditions can threaten the organization’s viability. Some new managers of worker-owned cooperatives may lack the strategies they need to maintain consistent employment levels during economic downturns. Grounded in the expected utility theory, the purpose of this qualitative multiple case study was to explore the strategies used by managers of worker-owned cooperatives to maintain consistent employment levels during sustained periods of low revenue. Participants comprised seven managers of worker-owned cooperatives with a minimum of 5 years’ experience in the Midwest of the United States managing cooperatives during sustained periods of …

Child Labour In Nigeria: Causes And Consequences For National Development, Adebola Tolulope Adeoti

Young African Leaders Journal of Development

Child Labour is a great concern in many Africa countries, Nigeria inclusive in spite of legislative measures. Child labour eradication has also been recognised as a necessity for the achievement of sustainable development. The paper reviews the factors that influence the use of child labour .The paper which argues that, at the heart of the problematic of the Child Labour is Poverty, also explains the health consequences of child labour in Nigerian children. The paper reveals the various types of child labour, which Nigerian children engaged in. The findings also identified; illiteracy, unemployment , polygamy and others as some of …

The Effect Of Low Skill Job Opportunities On Postsecondary Enrollment, Mallory Radesic

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This research examines the effect that low skill job opportunities have on the probability of enrollment in postsecondary institutions between men and women, namely the construction and manufacturing industries. The research is based on the human capital investment theory, which states that individuals will enroll in postsecondary institutions when the perceived benefits outweigh the costs. More job opportunity heightens the opportunity cost of enrollment, hence lowering the probability of enrollment. After running a probit model, there is evidence that enrollment is countercyclical and that enrollment decisions do not vary significantly between men and women. I find that a 1 percent …

Impact Of Unemployment Insurance Benefit Generosity On Re-Employment Wages During The Great Recession, Hayden Cobb

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This paper examines the impact of the replacement ratio on re-employment wages during the great recession. This is done using a data set from IPUMS CPS displaced workers supplement between 2005 and 2012. Using OLS analysis, I estimated the impacts of the replacement ratio on the ratio of re-employment wages to pre-unemployment wages. I found that a replacement ratio of one would lead to a 77.6% increase in the ratio of re-employment wages to pre-unemployment wages, without the consideration of any other variables. The findings of the replacement ratio support economic theory and contradict the findings of some major papers …

Strategies Worker-Owned Cooperatives Use To Remain Profitable During Economic Downturns, Termaine Davis

Walden Dissertations and Doctoral Studies

New managers of worker-owned cooperatives who fail to adapt to changing conditions can threaten the organization’s viability. Some new managers of worker-owned cooperatives may lack the strategies they need to maintain consistent employment levels during economic downturns. Grounded in the expected utility theory, the purpose of this qualitative multiple case study was to explore the strategies used by managers of worker-owned cooperatives to maintain consistent employment levels during sustained periods of low revenue. Participants comprised seven managers of worker-owned cooperatives with a minimum of 5 years’ experience in the Midwest of the United States managing cooperatives during sustained periods of …

Social Determinants Of Health: The Impact On Health Outcomes And Hospital Profitability, Danielle Mcpherson

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

Hospitals are experiencing decreasing profitability due to increasing healthcare cost. In this paper, I demonstrate that there is financial value to hospitals by addressing social determinants of health (SDOH) as this strategy improves health outcomes and yields cost savings. I estimate the impact of SDOH on the health outcomes using an IV probit regression analysis and estimated the impact of health outcomes on cost using a basic linear regression. I estimate that improving SDOH by one standard deviation will result in hospital cost savings as follows: addressing Violent Crime will decrease hospital cost between 0.16% and 0.21%, addressing Supplemental Nutrition …

Stock Market Correlations To Economic Indicators, Anthony K. Quandt

Honors Program: Senior Projects (Public)

For this project, I researched how representative the S&P 500 (a common index of choice to represent the market) is of the economic well-being of the US. I found that stock market data can be used an as indicator of the economic well-being of the U.S.. The results do not indicate that the stock market leads to recovery, but it does suggest that it is correlated with recovery. In my analysis, I compared the S&P 500 performance to four different economic indicators: Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), The Consumer Price Index (CPI), Average Weekly Private Wages, and Unemployment Rate. A …

Income In The Off-Season: Household Adaptation To Yearly Work Interruptions, John Coglianese, Brendan M. Price

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Income In The Off-Season: Household Adaptation To Yearly Work Interruptions, John Coglianese, Brendan M. Price

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Joblessness is highly seasonal. To analyze how households adapt to seasonal joblessness, we introduce a measure of seasonal work interruptions premised on the idea that a seasonal worker will tend to exit employment around the same time each year. We show that an excess share of prime-age U.S. workers experience recurrent separations spaced exactly 12 months apart. These separations coincide with aggregate seasonal downturns and are concentrated in seasonally volatile industries. Examining workers most prone to seasonal work interruptions, we find that these workers incur large earnings losses during the off-season. Lost earnings are 1) driven mainly by repeated separations …

5 Big Ideas In Inequality: Good Jobs - V, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Visualizing Vulnerable Jobs In Nevada, Peter Grema, Vanessa Booth, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This Fact Sheet summarizes data on Nevada and its metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) from the national report “Visualizing Vulnerable Jobs Across America,” by Marcela Escobari, Natalie Geismar, and Dhruv Gandhi of the Brookings Institution. Data from the original report and accompanying database are used to highlight the total number and share of vulnerable jobs in the Silver State during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Understanding Unemployment Statistics (Activity), Tom Martin

Open Educational Resources

When you see unemployment statics in the news – such as, “unemployment rises to 11%” – are you certain that you are interpreting them correctly? This short activity will help you to understand unemployment statics in all of their nuance and complexity.

How Many Americans Have Lost Jobs With Employer Health Coverage During The Pandemic?, Paul Fronstin, Stephen A. Woodbury

External Papers and Reports

ISSUE: During the COVID-19 pandemic, most states issued lockdown orders that closed many workplaces. The ensuing job losses may have left millions of workers without employer health coverage.

GOAL: To estimate how many workers lost jobs that came with employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) — by industry, age, and gender — during the pandemic.

METHODS: Health insurance coverage data were used to generate the proportion of workers with ESI, by various characteristics. Data on unemployment benefit recipients were used to generate the proportion of workers who lost jobs because of the pandemic. We apply the proportion of workers with ESI to the …

Covid-19: Nevada Counties With Low-Income Job Loss, Katie M. Gilbertson, Madison Frazee-Bench, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

The purpose of this fact sheet is to highlight low-income job loss due to COVID-19 in Nevada’s 17 counties. This fact sheet features data originally reported by the Urban Institute in the publication, “Where Low-Income Jobs are Being Lost to COVID-19,” which highlights data as of June 5, 2020.

The Long-Term Labor Market Effects Of Parental Unemployment, Bernhard Schmidpeter

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

I investigate the impact of parental unemployment on children’s educational attainment and long-run labor market outcomes in Austria. I find that parental unemployment shortly before an important educational decision by parents for their children lowers a child’s probability of holding a university degree by more than 5 percentage points. I do not find that income is affected at the beginning of a child’s labor market career along the distribution, but I find a gradual deterioration later on. A substantial share of these long-term losses can be explained by the lower parental investment decision. My results emphasize the intergenerational and long-lasting …

The Enduring Local Harm From Recessions, Brad J. Hershbein, Bryan A. Stuart

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

The Us Employment Situation Using The Yale Labor Survey, Christopher Foote, William D. Nordhaus, Douglas Rivers

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This study presents the design and results of a rapid-fire survey that collects labor market data for households in the United States. The Yale Labor Survey, or YLS, uses an online panel from YouGov to replicate the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is the source of the government’s monthly household statistics. Questions in the YLS concern current and retrospective employment, hours, and income. Because the YLS draws upon an existing pool of potential respondents, it can generate responses inexpensively and quickly (within 24 hours). Moreover, the YLS can develop new questions in real time to study unusual patterns of work …

Assessing Community Needs: City Of Toledo And Lucas County, Ohio, Jim Robey, Stephen Biddle, Don Edgerly, Marie Holler, Brian Pittelko, Claudette Robey, Kathleen Bolter, Tom Schorgl

Reports

At the core of issues in Lucas County and, in particular, the City of Toledo is poverty. While this does not necessarily provide an “Aha!” moment, current conditions that contribute to being economically disadvantaged in many areas of the city and county affect not only current residents but will also affect future residents—without meaningful and targeted interventions. It is beyond the scope of the Toledo Community Foundation, or any single institution for that matter, to unilaterally address the range of issues presented in this study. Remedying these issues must be accomplished through the coordination and leveraging of resources, including public, …

Socioeconomic Indicators And Economic Impact Analysis Of Firekeepers Casino And Hotel, Jim Robey

Reports

No abstract provided.

Job Duration And Match Characteristics Over The Business Cycle, Ismail Baydur, Toshihiko Mukoyama

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the cyclical behavior of job separation and the characteristics of matches between workers and jobs. We estimate a proportional hazard model with competing risks, distinguishing between different types of separations. A higher unemployment rate at the start of an employment relationship increases the probability of job-to-job transitions, whereas its effect on employment-to-unemployment transitions is negative. We then build a simple job ladder model to interpret our empirical results. A model with two-dimensional heterogeneity in match (job) characteristics has the same qualitative features as the data. Once the model is extended to include cyclicality in the offered match …

Labor Market Policies In A Roy-Rosen Bargaining Economy, Hugo Jales, Zhengfei Yu

Center for Policy Research

We study the effects of labor market policies using a bargaining model featuring compensating differentials (Rosen, 1986) and self-selection (Roy, 1951). The framework allows us to create a taxonomy of formal and informal employment. We use the model to estimate the effects of the minimum wage for the Brazilian economy using the “PNAD" dataset for the years 2001-2005. Our results suggest that, although the minimum wage generates unemployment and reallocation of labor to the informal sector, the policy might be desirable if the employment losses are concentrated in jobs characterized by low surplus.

Determinants Of County-Level Poverty Rates In 2017: An Upper-Midwest Comparison, Trey V. Perez

Undergraduate Economic Review

The American upper-Midwest as a region throughout the 2010s has experienced lower-than-average poverty rates. This paper seeks to uncover the determinants that have the greatest impact on the county-level poverty rates for five states (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas). Outcomes for this study came from an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression to estimate the impact each independent variable had on the poverty rate. The empirical results showed the unemployment rate, the percentage of households headed solely by females, and percent of the population that was Native American in 2017 had a significant impact on a county’s poverty rate.

Effect Of Unemployment Length On Employment Expectations, Kamyar Kamyar

Undergraduate Economic Review

Unemployment often has devastating effects on individuals -- both in financial and psychological terms. Depending on the type and category of unemployment, its length varies; and as its length increases it may implement biased thought in individuals’ predictions regarding future employment. This paper’s primary purpose is to measure and discuss how the time length that one has been unemployed for affects his or her expectations on his or her own short-term possibility of employment. The results suggest a strong opposite link between one’s prediction of future employment and the same person’s prior unemployment period. This paper was originally written in …

Oil Price Changes And Unemployment Rate In The U.S. And Chile, Agamani Maity

Master's Theses

Abstract

There is a recurring question in theoretical, empirical and policy work is what the effects of higher oil prices are on the country’s macroeconomic aggregates. Empirical evidence in support of the view that fluctuation in the economy due to the interaction of macroeconomic variables is caused by oil price was based on inappropriate econometric models. These studies do not capture the composition of the price of oil that is affected by the exogenous oil shocks and has an indirect or direct impact on the macroeconomic aggregates. In this study, we decompose the change in oil prices into three structural …