Economics Commons^™

The Hall Memorial Lectures, Lewis Karstensson

Molasky Family Department of Economics and Real Estate Faculty Research

This publication is a record of the Hall Memorial Lectures in Economics delivered at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, in the 1980s.

Contents include:

Wallace C. Peterson, "Contemporary Macroeconomics: A House Divided" (Dec. 1, 1983)

Wallace C. Peterson, "Economic Stabilization and Inflation" (May 8, 1984)

Murray N. Rothbard, "The Five Faces of Reaganomics" (Nov. 27, 1984)

Murray N. Rothbard, "The Terrible Simplifiers: The Case Against the Flat Tax" (May 7, 1985)

Larry D. Singell, "Youth Unemployment: An American Crisis" (May 14, 1986)

Murray N. Rothbard, "Is There Life After Reaganomics?" (Oct. 22, 1987)

Murray N. Rothbard, "Deficits and Taxes: …

Dynamic Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Output And Unemployment In Nigeria: An Econometric Investigation, Attahir B. Abubakar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of fiscal policy shocks on output and unemployment in Nigeria under the Keynesian framework by employing the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) methodology to analyse annual series on the relevant variables for the period 1981-2015. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test for unit root result shows all variables to be integrated of order one and Johansen Cointegration test confirms the presence of long run association among the variables. Findings of the SVAR model shows shock in public expenditure as having a positive long- lasting effect on output. Revenue shock was found to exert a positive effect (lower …

Is Unemployment Good For The Environment?, Andrew G. Meyer

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

Environmental quality is a public good, potentially impacted by everybody. Individual level pro-environmental behavior affects environmental quality in the aggregate. Therefore, it is important to understand what causes individual’s pro-environmental behaviors to change. We quantify the causal effect of one determinant, unemployment, using an EU-27 population representative Eurobarometer survey. Drawing on results from the theory of the private provision of public goods, and recognizing that unemployment decreases income and the opportunity cost of time, we formulate testable predictions that unemployment will decrease the extent of pro-environmental behaviors that require monetary contributions and increase the extent of pro-environmental behaviors that mainly …

Monetary Policy And Unemployment In Nigeria: Is There A Dynamic Relationship?, Sunday N. Essien, Garba A. Manya, Mary O.A. Arigo, Kufre J. Bassey, Suleiman F. Ogunyinka, Deborah G. Ojegwo, Francisca Ogbuehi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the link between unemployment and monetary policy in Nigeria using a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework for the period 1983q1 – 2014q1. The paper investigates the effect of structural change by identifying three structural breakpoints and incorporating them into the VAR model as dummy variables. The results show that a positive shock to policy rate raises unemployment over a 10 quarter period. In addition, all the variables used as proxy in the model jointly Granger cause unemployment, implying the existence of a dynamic relationship between monetary policy and unemployment in Nigeria.

Three Essays On Unemployment Insurance In The 21St Century, Lewis H. Warren

Theses and Dissertations--Economics

My dissertation consists of three essays focusing on unemployment insurance (UI) and how it affects recipients. The first essay examines how UI generosity affects the search intensity of recipients through matching American Time Use Survey respondents to all of their observations in the Current Population Survey (CPS), the population from which they are drawn. Earnings from the CPS are then run through a benefit calculator that determines eligibility and benefit amounts which are used to determine how UI generosity affects search times. The second essay uses the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine how lesser known policies affecting …

A Dynamic Model Of The Choice Of Technology In Economic Development, Haiwen Zhou, Ruhai Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

In this overlapping-generations model, there is unemployment in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose technologies to maximize profits. With capital as a fixed cost of production, increasing returns in the manufacturing sector exist. In the unique steady state, first, when individuals become more patient, the savings rate increases while the level of an individual’s income decreases. Second, an increase in population or percentage of income spent on manufactured goods does not change steady-state technology while the level of an individual’s income decreases. Third, an increase in the wage rate leads manufacturing firms to choose more …

Surviving Job Loss: Paper Makers In Maine And Minnesota, Kenneth A. Root, Rosemarie J. Park

Upjohn Press

Root and Park examine the plight of long-tenured workers displaced from two paper mills—their paths to reemployment, retirement decisions, and the personal struggles they confront.

Hyperbolic Memory Discounting And The Political Business Cycle, T. Scott Findley

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The vintage political business cycle framework of Nordhaus (1975) represents the idea that the macroeconomic business cycle is manipulated opportunistically by an incumbent government to achieve re-election. A key assumption in this prototypical framework is that voters discount their memories about unemployment and inflation at a constant rate. Yet starting with Ebbinghaus (1885) and Jost (1897), a large body of research in psychology documents an empirical regularity that has come to be known as Jost's Second Law of Forgetting-individuals discount recent memories at a higher rate compared to the rate at which they discount older memories. I find that incorporating …

Estimating The Effects Of The Minimum Wage In A Developing Country: A Density Discontinuity Design Approach, Hugo Jales

Center for Policy Research

This paper proposes a new framework to identify the effects of the minimum wage on the joint distribution of sector and wages in a developing country. I show that under reasonable assumptions, cross-sectional data on the worker's wage and sector can identify the joint distribution of the latent counterparts of these variables; that is, the sector status and wage that would prevail in the absence of the minimum wage. I apply the method in the “PNAD”, a nationwide representative Brazilian cross-sectional dataset for the years 2001 to 2009. The results indicate that the size of the informal sector is increased …

Should Ui Eligibility Be Expanded To Low-Earning Workers? Evidence On Employment, Transfer Receipt, And Income From Administrative Data, Pauline Leung, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Recent efforts to expand unemployment insurance (UI) eligibility are expected to increase low-earning workers’ access to UI. Although the expansion’s aim is to smooth the income and consumption of previously ineligible workers, it is possible that UI benefits simply displace other sources of income. Standard economic models predict that UI delays reemployment, thereby reducing wage income. Additionally, low-earning workers are often eligible for benefits from means-tested programs, which may decrease with UI benefits. In this paper, we estimate the impact of UI eligibility on employment, means-tested program participation, and income after job loss using a unique individual-level administrative data set …

Does Public Employment Reduce Unemployment?, Alberto Behar, Junghwan Mok

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

We quantify the extent to which public-sector employment crowds out privatesector employment using specially assembled datasets for a large cross-section of developing and advanced countries, and discuss the implications for countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Caucasus and Central Asia. These countries simultaneously display high unemployment rates, low private-sector employment rates and high proportions of government-sector employment. Regressions of unemployment rates on public-sector employment point to full crowding out. This means that high rates of public employment, which incur substantial fiscal costs, do not reduce overall unemployment rates.

Unemployment And Public Budget Impacts Of The Auto Bailout, Robert Baumann, Andrea Thompson

Economics Department Working Papers

We estimate the impact of the 2009 financial rescue of two large American automobile companies (General Motors and Chrysler) on unemployment in Michigan. We conservatively estimate that the auto bailout saved about 7,700 workers from unemployment each month over a period of four-and-a-half years. This translates to a public savings of between $1.3 and $1.6 billion via lower transfer payments and higher tax revenues.

Mountain Monitor - 1st Quarter 2015, Kenan Fikri, Siddharth Kulkarni

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

This analysis of employment, output, unemployment, and house prices finds that the 10 major metropolitan areas of the Mountain West, despite significant economic headwinds, weathered the first quarter of 2015 with robust economic growth. Eight of the region’s 10 major metro areas advanced on all four metrics of economic performance, and the remaining two metro areas slipped only on a single front.

The national economic slowdown that arrived in early 2015 did not entirely bypass the Mountain West, but the region resisted the drag better than any other. As U.S. economic output contracted by 0.3 percent in the first quarter, …

The Great Recession And U.S. Safety Nets: The Case Of Temporary Assistance To Needy Families (Tanf), Vicky Albert

Brookings Scholar Lecture Series

The Great Recession

• Officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009
• Most severe recession since Great Depression
• In the first quarter of 2012 about 30% of jobless workers had been unemployed for a year or longer
• From 2007 to 2009, real personal income per capita fell by 8.3 percentage points and many individuals dropped from the labor force

The Safety Nets for Families with Children

• Unemployment Insurance
• Medicaid
• Earned Income Tax Credit
• Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
• Subsidized Housing
• Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program (TANF)

The Impact Of Foreign Direct Investment On Labor Market Measures: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, David A. Mayom

Master's Theses

There is scant literature examining the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and labor market measures in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. This paper explores the effect of FDI on the labor market measures using panel data of 48 Sub-Saharan African Countries from 1991 to 2009. The result indicates that FDI has a positive and significant effect on employment implying that an increase in the inflow of FDI is associated with higher employment. Thus, Sub-Saharan African governments should strongly consider poverty alleviation and employment policies that encourage and direct FDI to the industries where it can significantly reduce unemployment.

Self-Employment And Unemployment In Turkey, Yasemin Ozerkek, Fatma Dogruel

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

The relationship between the rates of self-employment and unemployment has been extensively studied in the literature. The results of the existing studies are varied. The aim of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between these variables in Turkey. The results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the rates of self-employment and unemployment. Changes in self-employment rates have a negative effect on subsequent unemployment rates. There is evidence for the existence of causality running from self-employment rate to unemployment rate. The results reveal the existence of an entrepreneurial effect. However, it is not possible to assess the …

Mountain Monitor - 4th Quarter 2014, Kenan Fikri, Mark Muro

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

With the national economy gaining steam, the 10 major metro areas of the Mountain West ended 2014 with another quarter of strong economic performance. On the four indicators of economic vitality measured by the Mountain Monitor—employment growth, output growth, changes in unemployment, and house price growth—with only a few exceptions, every metro area registered advances on every indicator. Such widespread progress heretofore eluded the region, where recovery from the Great Recession has been characterized by unevenness.

In aggregate, the 10 Mountain metro areas ended 2014 with their fastest quarter of job growth of the year. Employment increased by 0.8 …

(Wp 2015-02) Is Unemployment Good For The Environment?, Andrew G. Meyer

Economics Working Papers

Environmental quality is a public good, potentially impacted by everybody. Individual level pro-environmental behavior affects environmental quality in the aggregate. Therefore, it is important to understand what causes individual’s pro-environmental behaviors to change. We quantify the causal effect of one determinant, unemployment, using an EU-27 population representative Eurobarometer survey. Drawing on results from the theory of the private provision of public goods, and recognizing that unemployment decreases income and the opportunity cost of time, we formulate testable predictions that unemployment will decrease the extent of pro-environmental behaviors that require monetary contributions and increase the extent of pro-environmental behaviors that mainly …

2015-1 The Interactive Evolution Of Economic Ideas And Experience - The Case Of Canadian Inflation Targeting, David Laidler

Economic Policy Research Institute. EPRI Working Papers

No abstract provided.

Homeownership And Unemployment: Outcomes And Implications, George Mawuli Akpandjar

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three papers on the effect of homeownership on labor market outcomes. In the first paper, I developed a one-sector two-region endogenous job search model and show that when jobs arrive from both local labor market and non-local labor market, homeowners: are less likely to be unemployed than renters; and have higher overall search intensity and exit rate than renters. I then estimate the effect of homeownership on unemployment using a panel data set aggregated from the American Community Survey data from 2003 to 2011 and use relative cost of owning a home as instrument for homeownership. …

Employment, Unemployment, And Underemployment In Africa, Stephen S. Golub, Faraz Hayat , '14

Economics Faculty Works

This chapter documents and analyzes the predominance of informal employment in Africa and shows that lack of demand for labor rather than worker characteristics is the main reason for pervasive underemployment. Integration into the global economy and exports of labor-intensive products are vital to boosting the demand for labor in Africa. Africa has some potential to become competitive in light manufacturing, but the most promising avenue for export-led growth of employment in many African countries is agriculture, including traditional cash crops such as cotton, coffee, cocoa, and groundnuts. Traditional cash crops, which are the source of livelihood for millions of …

Health Care Use, Out-Of-Pocket Expenditure, And Macroeconomic Conditions During The Great Recession, Juan Du, Takeshi Yagihashi

Economics Faculty Publications

We study how macroeconomic conditions during the Great Recession affected health care utilization and out-of-pocket expenditures of American households. We use two data sources: the Consumer Expenditure (CE) Survey and the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP); each has its own advantages. The CE contains quarterly frequency variables, and the SIPP provides panel data at the individual level. Consistent evidence across the two datasets shows that utilization of routine medical care was counter-cyclical, whereas hospital care was pro-cyclical during the Great Recession. When we examine the pre-recession period, the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and health care use was either …

Unemployment And Economic Integration For Developing Countries, Haiwen Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

While financial or trade integration between countries may increase the size of the market and aid the adoption of more advanced technologies, will it also increase the level of urban unemployment for a developing country? In this model, there is unemployment in the urban sector. Manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose increasing returns technologies to maximize profits. Financial firms provide capital to manufacturing firms and they also engage in oligopolistic competition. We show that an increase in the wage rate in the manufacturing sector changes neither the level of technology nor the level of employment in the manufacturing …

The Choice Of Technology And Equilibrium Wage Rigidity, Haiwen Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

In this general equilibrium model, firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose increasing returns technologies to maximize profits. Capital and labor are the two factors of production. The existence of efficiency wages leads to unemployment. The model is able to explain some interesting observations of the labor market. First, even though there is neither long-term labor contract nor costs of wage adjustment, wage rigidity is an equilibrium phenomenon: an increase in the exogenous job separation rate, the size of the population, the cost of exerting effort, and the probability that shirking is detected will not change the equilibrium wage rate. …

Young Workers Left Behind: Hiring And The Great Recession, Eliza C. Forsythe

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Mountain Monitor - 3rd Quarter 2014, Kenan Fikri, Mark Muro

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

As a group, the 10 major metro areas of the Mountain West outperformed the national economy during the third quarter of 2014 on all four indicators of economic vitality measured by the Mountain Monitor: employment growth, output growth, unemployment, and house prices. In the three months ending in September, the country’s large metropolitan areas were anticipating the rapid uptick in national economic growth that took hold at the end of 2014. Mountain region metro areas led the way.

All but two major metro areas in the region added jobs, and six did so at a faster rate than the …

Reassessing The Effects Of Unemployment Insurance Generosity On Search Intensity: New Evidence From Earnings Histories, Lewis Warren

University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research Discussion Paper Series

This paper provides the first nationally representative estimates of how unemployment insurance (UI) generosity in the United States affects the search intensity of unemployed individuals using individual level variation in UI generosity. The paper expands the current literature through fully simulating monetary eligibility and entitlement to unemployment insurance at the individual level where past studies have been unable to examine monetary eligibility and have relied on state variations in the maximum weekly benefit amount which can differ significantly from an individual’s actual benefit amount. To simulate monetary eligibility and entitlement, work histories of unemployed respondents were obtained through fully matching …

Mountain Monitor - 2nd Quarter 2014, Kenan Fikri, Mark Muro

Mountain Monitor Quarterly

Economic growth returned to the 10 major metro areas of the Mountain West in the second quarter of 2014 after slippage in the first quarter of the year. The resumption of vitality progressed unevenly, however. Denver and Salt Lake City pulled ahead as the fastest-growing metro areas in the region. Ogden and Provo’s days of above-average growth appeared to be fading. Las Vegas’ economic recovery advanced strongly, but Sun Belt peers Phoenix and Tucson had more difficulty moving beyond the first quarter’s slowdown. Albuquerque, for its part, welcomed a return to employment and output growth.

Across the region’s 10 major …

Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, And Unemployment, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper develops a model of unemployment fluctuations. The model keeps the architecture of the Barro and Grossman (1971) general disequilibrium model but replaces the disequilibrium framework on the labor and product markets by a matching framework. On the product and labor markets, both price and tightness adjust to equalize supply and demand. There is one more variable than equilibrium condition on each market, so we consider various price mechanisms to close the model, from completely flexible to completely rigid. With some price rigidity, aggregate demand influences unemployment through a simple mechanism: higher aggregate demand raises the probability that firms …

Exploring The Community Factor Of Economic Resiliency, Al G. Gourrier

Graduate Research Symposium (2010 - 2017)

Resilience takes on many different meanings, but when we speak of the resilience of a market we are generally referencing the capability of that market’s capacity to respond, regroup and move forward, usually after an event or series of events that impede or encumber a market’s economic sustainability. The outcomes of a stable and performing market are indicated by its economic performance. Using economic indicators as a base, this study analyzes three markets as they recover from destabilizing events and attempt to respond, regroup and move forward. The study analyzes the Las Vegas, New Orleans and Detroit markets from an …