Economics Commons^™

Are There Returns To Experience At Low-Skill Jobs? Evidence From Single Mothers In The United States Over The 1990s, Adam Looney, Dayanand S. Manoli

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Policy changes in the United States in the 1990s resulted in sizable increases in employment rates of single mothers. We show that this increase led to a large and abrupt increase in work experience for single mothers with young children. We then examine the economic return to this increase in experience for affected single mothers. Despite the increases in experience, single mothers’ real wages and employment have remained relatively unchanged. The empirical analysis suggests that an additional year of experience increases single mothers’ wage rates by less than 2 percent, a percentage lower than previous estimates in the literature.

Encouragement Emails Increase Participation In Reemployment Services, Matthew Darling, Christopher J. O'Leary, Irma L. Perez-Johnson, Jaclyn Lefkowitz, Kenneth J. Kline, Ben Damerow, Randall W. Eberts

External Papers and Reports

No abstract provided.

Considerations For States Planning Personal Reemployment Accounts, Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary

Conference Papers

No abstract provided.

U.S. Employment Outlook For 2016, Randall W. Eberts

Periodical Articles

No abstract provided.

Wage Insurance As A Policy Option In The United States, Stephen A. Wandner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Wage insurance is a program that attempts to help permanently displaced workers transition to employment rapidly, effectively, and equitably. Because displaced workers have been found to suffer substantial earnings losses when they become reemployed, a wage insurance program provides a temporary wage supplement that partially reduces the wage loss experienced by targeted, newly reemployed workers. While participating workers receive a “wage supplement,” the program is called “wage insurance” because of its design as a social insurance program rather than an income transfer program. This paper provides a discussion of the development of wage insurance as a policy option in the …

Using Linked Survey And Administrative Data To Better Measure Income: Implications For Poverty, Program Effectiveness And Holes In The Safety Net, Bruce D. Meyer, Nikolas Mittag

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We examine the consequences of underreporting of transfer programs in household survey data for several prototypical analyses of low-income populations. We focus on the Current Population Survey (CPS), the source of official poverty and inequality statistics, but provide evidence that our qualitative conclusions are likely to apply to other surveys. We link administrative data for food stamps, TANF, General Assistance, and subsidized housing from New York State to the CPS at the individual level. Program receipt in the CPS is missed for over one-third of housing assistance recipients, 40 percent of food stamp recipients, and 60 percent of TANF and …

Optimal Social Assistance And Unemployment Insurance In A Life-Cycle Model Of Family Labor Supply And Savings, Peter Haan, Victoria Prowse

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We analyze empirically the optimal design of social insurance and assistance programs when families obtain insurance by making labor supply choices for both spouses. For this purpose, we specify a structural life-cycle model of the labor supply and savings decisions of singles and married couples. Partial insurance against wage and employment shocks is provided by social programs, savings, and the labor supplies of all adult household members. The optimal policy mix focuses mainly on Social Assistance, which provides a permanent universal household income floor, with a minor role for temporary earnings-related Unemployment Insurance. Reflecting that married couples obtain intra-household insurance …

The Effect Of Income On Subjective Well-Being: Evidence From The 2008 Economic Stimulus Tax Rebates, Marta Lachowska

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper uses tax rebate payments from the 2008 economic stimulus to estimate the effect of a one-time change in income on three measures of subjective well-being: life satisfaction, health satisfaction, and affect. The income effect is identified by exploiting the plausibly exogenous variation in the payment schedule of the rebates. Using both ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares estimators, I find that the rebates had a large and positive impact on affect, which is explained by a reduction in feelings of stress and worry. For life satisfaction and health satisfaction, there is weaker evidence of a positive impact. …

Should Ui Eligibility Be Expanded To Low-Earning Workers? Evidence On Employment, Transfer Receipt, And Income From Administrative Data, Pauline Leung, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Recent efforts to expand unemployment insurance (UI) eligibility are expected to increase low-earning workers’ access to UI. Although the expansion’s aim is to smooth the income and consumption of previously ineligible workers, it is possible that UI benefits simply displace other sources of income. Standard economic models predict that UI delays reemployment, thereby reducing wage income. Additionally, low-earning workers are often eligible for benefits from means-tested programs, which may decrease with UI benefits. In this paper, we estimate the impact of UI eligibility on employment, means-tested program participation, and income after job loss using a unique individual-level administrative data set …

Eligibility Recertification And Dynamic Opt-In Incentives In Income-Tested Social Programs: Evidence From Medicaid/Chip, Zhuan Pei

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Conventional labor supply studies assume constant eligibility monitoring of income-tested program participants, but this is not true for most programs. For example, states can allow children to enroll in Medicaid/CHIP for 12 months regardless of family income changes. A long recertification period reduces monitoring costs but is predicted to induce program participation by temporary income adjustments. However, I find little evidence of strategic behavior from the 2001 and 2004 Survey of Income and Program Participation. Given the lack of dynamic responses, I propose a framework to compute the optimal recertification period and find 12 months to be its lower bound.

Use Of Unemployment Insurance And Public Employment Services After Leaving Welfare, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

In this paper I examine the rates at which adults in households recently receiving Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) become jobless, apply for and receive unemployment insurance (UI) benefits, and participate in publicly funded employment services. I also investigate the correlation of UI and employment services receipt with maintenance of self-sufficiency through return to work and independence from TANF. The analysis is based on person-level administrative program records from four of the nine largest states between 1997 and 2003. Evidence suggests that three-quarters of new TANF leavers experience joblessness within three years, and one-quarter of the newly jobless apply …

The Effect Of Health Insurance On Workers' Compensation Filing: Evidence From The Affordable Care Act's Age-Based Threshold For Dependent Coverage, Marcus Dillender

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper identifies the effect of health insurance on workers' compensation (WC) filing for young adults by implementing a regression discontinuity design using WC medical claims data from Texas. The results suggest health insurance factors into the decision to have WC pay for discretionary care. The implied instrumental variables estimates suggest a 10 percentage point decrease in health insurance coverage increases WC bills by 15.3 percent. Despite the large impact of health insurance on the number of WC bills, the additional cost to WC at age 26 appears to be small as most of the increase comes from small bills.

The Effect Of The Earned Income Tax Credit In The District Of Columbia On Poverty And Income Dynamics, Bradley L. Hardy, Daniel Muhammad, Rhucha Samudra

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Using unique longitudinal administrative tax panel data for the District of Columbia (DC), we assess the combined effect of the DC supplemental earned income tax credit (EITC) and the federal EITC on poverty and income dynamics within Washington, DC, from 2001 to 2011. The EITC in DC merits investigation, as the DC supplement to the federal credit is the largest in the nation. The supplemental DC EITC was enacted in 2000, and has been expanded from 10 percent of the federal credit in 2001 to 40 percent as of 2009. To implement the study, we estimate least squares models with …

Medicaid And The Labor Supply Of Single Mothers: Implications For Health Care Reform, Vincent Pohl

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act expands Medicaid and introduces health insurance subsidies, thereby changing work incentives for single mothers. To undertake an ex ante policy evaluation of the employment effects of the PPACA, I structurally estimate a model of labor supply and health insurance choice exploiting existing variation in Medicaid policies. Simulations show that single mothers increase their labor supply at the extensive and the intensive margin by six and five percent, respectively. The PPACA leads to crowding-out of employer-sponsored health insurance of about 40 percent and increases single mothers' welfare by about $190 per month.

Inference On Causal Effects In A Generalized Regression Kink Design, David Card, David S. Lee, Zhuan Pei, Andrea Weber

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We consider nonparametric identification and estimation in a nonseparable model where a continuous regressor of interest is a known, deterministic, but kinked function of an observed assignment variable. This design arises in many institutional settings where a policy variable (such as weekly unemployment benefits) is determined by an observed but potentially endogenous assignment variable (like previous earnings). We provide new results on identification and estimation for these settings, and apply our results to obtain estimates of the elasticity of joblessness with respect to UI benefit rates. We characterize a broad class of models in which a sharp “Regression Kink Design” …

The Effects Of Eliminating The Work Search Requirement On Job Match Quality And Other Long-Term Employment Outcomes, Marta Lachowska, Merve Meral, Stephen A. Woodbury

External Papers and Reports

No abstract provided.

How Long Before Recertifying Medicaid And Chip Children?, Zhuan Pei

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

The Job Search Intensity Supply Curve: How Labor Market Conditions Affect Job Search Effort, Jeremy Schwartz

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

During the Great Recession of 2007, unemployment reached nearly 10 percent and the ratio of unemployment to open positions (as measured by the Help Wanted OnLine Index) more than tripled. The weak labor market prompted an unprecedented extension in the length of time in which a claimant can collect unemployment insurance (UI) to 99 weeks, at an expense to date of $226.4 billion. While many claim that extending UI during a recession will reduce search intensity, the effect of weak labor market conditions on search remains a mystery. As a result, policymakers are in the dark as to whether UI …

Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, And Unemployment, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper develops a model of unemployment fluctuations. The model keeps the architecture of the Barro and Grossman (1971) general disequilibrium model but replaces the disequilibrium framework on the labor and product markets by a matching framework. On the product and labor markets, both price and tightness adjust to equalize supply and demand. There is one more variable than equilibrium condition on each market, so we consider various price mechanisms to close the model, from completely flexible to completely rigid. With some price rigidity, aggregate demand influences unemployment through a simple mechanism: higher aggregate demand raises the probability that firms …

Economic Development Recommendations That Focus On The "Working Poor": Lessons From Waco, George Erickcek, Don Edgerly, Brian Pittelko, Claudette Robey, Bridget Timmeney, Jim Robey

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Public Workforce Programs During The Great Recession, Stephen A. Wandner, Randall W. Eberts

Journal Articles

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of Public Insurance Coverage For Childless Adults On Labor Supply, Laura Dague, Thomas C. Deleire, Lindsey Leininger

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This study provides plausibly causal estimates of the effect of public insurance coverage on the employment of nonelderly, nondisabled adults without dependent children (“childless adults”). We use regression discontinuity and propensity score matching difference-in-differences methods to take advantage of the sudden imposition of an enrollment cap, comparing the labor supply of enrollees to eligible applicants on a waitlist. We find that enrollment into public insurance leads to sizable and statistically meaningful reductions in employment up to at least nine quarters later, with an estimated size of 2–10 percentage points, depending on the model used.

Use Of Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program Benefits By Unemployment Insurance Applicants In Michigan During The Great Recession, Christopher J. O'Leary, Kenneth J. Kline

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

During the Great Recession, both the Supplementary Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and the federal-state unemployment insurance (UI) program experienced dramatic increases in participation. Using Michigan program administrative data on all SNAP (2006–2011) recipients and all UI (2001–2010) applicants, we examine SNAP use before and after UI application. Both past and future receipts of SNAP are highly negatively correlated with meeting UI income and job separation eligibility requirements. Unemployment insurance applicants with insufficient wage credits or job separations because of quitting or employer discharge are much more likely to have received SNAP in the past. Furthermore, such UI applicants are also …

Financing Unemployment Insurance, Wayne Vroman, Stephen A. Woodbury

Journal Articles

Following the Great Recession, most states’ unemployment insurance (UI) trust funds became insolvent, requiring the states to borrow from the U.S. Treasury to finance benefit payments. This article describes the basics of UI financing and reviews the origins of the financial crisis facing the federal-state UI system. It then examines the main components of the UI payroll tax—the taxable wage base and the experience-rated payroll tax—and considers how these might be modified to avoid future widespread insolvency. We conclude with some speculative remarks on the future of UI financing.

U.S. Employment Outlook For 2014: Can The U.S. Economy Stand On Its Own?, Randall W. Eberts

Periodical Articles

No abstract provided.

Financing Unemployment Insurance, Wayne Vroman, Stephen A. Woodbury

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Following the Great Recession, most states’ unemployment insurance (UI) trust funds became insolvent, requiring the states to borrow from the U.S. Treasury to finance benefit payments. This article describes the basics of UI financing and reviews the origins of the financial crisis facing the federal-state UI system. It then examines the main components of the UI payroll tax—the taxable wage base and the experience-rated payroll tax—and considers how these might be modified to avoid future widespread insolvency. We conclude with some speculative remarks on the future of UI financing.

Mass Incarceration And Employment, Steven Raphael

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

The New Scarlet Letter? Negotiating The U.S. Labor Market With A Criminal Record, Steven Raphael

Upjohn Press

This book explores the difficulties facing ex-offenders as they try to enter and remain in the U.S. labor market.

What Works For Whom In Public Employment Policy?, Christopher J. O'Leary, Randall W. Eberts, Kevin Hollenbeck

Reports

No abstract provided.

Simulation Analysis Of The Louisiana Unemployment Insurance Tax System: Final Report, Christopher J. O'Leary

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

Unemployment insurance (UI) is a federal-state program designed to provide adequate partial income replacement to workers during temporary periods of involuntary joblessness. The UI system acts as an automatic macroeconomic stabilizer, increasing spending during recessions and reducing aggregate spending during recoveries. The program helps prevent recipients from slipping into poverty during unemployment.

This report reviews the recent history of financing regular UI benefits in Louisiana, assesses the adequacy of financing, and suggests areas where the financing system could be improved. The project aims to identify possible system reforms that will 1) assure long-term financial stability, 2) increase tax equity, and …