Economics Commons^™

The New Hires Quality Index: A Wage Metric For Newly Hired Workers, Brad J. Hershbein

Reports

No abstract provided.

Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence From Vacancy Postings, Brad J. Hershbein, Lisa B. Kahn

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Charles Ballard Interview, Justin Carinci

External Papers and Reports

Professor Charles Ballard of Michigan State University delivered the lecture “The Fall and Rise of Income Equality in the United States” Sept. 27, 2017 as part of the Werner Sichel Lecture Series at Western Michigan University. Ballard detailed the “Great Convergence” of income equality in the United States that grew out of policies of the 1930s and 1940s and a “Great Divergence” of inequality starting about 1980. Ballard called this income gap, which is now greater than during the Gilded Age, “the largest economic phenomenon of our lifetimes.”

Erica Groshen Interview, Justin Carinci

External Papers and Reports

Interview with former Commissioner of Labor Statistics and head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erica Groshen, from her presentation at the W.E. Upjohn Institute on August 29, 2017.

Regulating Access To Work In The Gig Labor Market: The Case Of Uber, Morris M. Kleiner

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of Public Pension Wealth On Saving And Expenditure, Marta Lachowska, Michał Myck

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper examines the degree of substitution between public pension wealth and private saving by studying Poland’s 1999 pension reform. The analysis identifies the effect of pension wealth on private saving using cohort-by-time variation in pension wealth induced by the reform. The estimates, which are based on the 1997–2003 Polish Household Budget Surveys, show that 1 Polish zloty (PLN) less of pension wealth increases household saving by 0.3 PLN. Among highly-educated households, pension wealth and private saving appear to be close substitutes.

Does Increased Access To Health Insurance Impact Claims For Workers' Compensation? Evidence From Massachusetts Health Care Reform, Erin Todd Bronchetti, Melissa Mcinerney

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We study over 20 million emergency room (ER) discharges in Massachusetts and three comparison states to estimate the impact of Massachusetts health care reform on claims for Workers’ Compensation (WC). Prior evidence on the relationship between health insurance and WC claiming behavior is mixed. We find that the reform caused a significant decrease in the number of per-capita ER discharges billed to WC. This result is driven by larger decreases in WC discharges for conditions for which there is greater scope to change the payer or the location of care. Conversely, we estimate smaller impacts for weekend versus weekday admissions …

Genes, Education, And Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence From The Health And Retirement Study, Nicholas W. Papageorge, Kevin Thom

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Recent advances have led to the discovery of specific genetic variants that predict educational attainment. We study how these variants, summarized as a genetic score variable, are associated with human capital accumulation and labor market outcomes in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We demonstrate that the same genetic score that predicts education is also associated with higher wages, but only among individuals with a college education. Moreover, the genetic gradient in wages has grown in more recent birth cohorts, consistent with interactions between technological change and labor market ability. We also show that individuals who grew up in economically …

Working Longer, Retiring Later: Are Employers Ready For The New Employment Trend?, Robert L. Clark, Melinda Sandler Morrill

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Nafta And The Gender Wage Gap, Shushanik Hakobyan, John Mclaren

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Using U.S. Census data for 1990–2000, we estimate effects of NAFTA on U.S. wages, focusing on differences by gender. We find that NAFTA tariff reductions are associated with substantially reduced wage growth for married blue-collar women, much larger than the effect for other demographic groups. We investigate several possible explanations for this finding. It is not explained by differential sensitivity of female-dominated occupations to trade shocks, or by household bargaining that makes married female workers less able to change their industry of employment than other workers. We find some support for an explanation based on an equilibrium theory of selective …

Medicaid, Family Spending, And The Financial Implications Of Crowd-Out, Marcus Dillender

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

A primary purpose of health insurance is to protect families from medical expenditure risk. Despite this goal and despite the fact that research has found that Medicaid can crowd out private coverage, little is known about the effect of Medicaid on families' spending patterns. This paper implements a simulated instrumental variables strategy with data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey to estimate the effect of an additional family member becoming eligible from Medicaid on family-level health insurance coverage and spending. The results indicate that an additional family member becoming eligible for Medicaid increases the number of people in the family with …

The Effect Of Employee Ownership On Employment Stability And Firm Survival During The Past Two Recessions, Fidan Ana Kurtulus, Douglas L. Kruse

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Extending Work Life: Can Employers Adapt When Employees Want To Delay Retirement?, Robert L. Clark, Melinda Sandler Morrill

Upjohn Press

Aging men and women are increasingly remaining in the labor force. Most often the reason for this is that they need to work additional years in order to be able to support an increasing number of years in retirement. This leaves employers scrambling for ways to adapt to a growing number of retirement-aged workers. Clark and Morrill provide a thorough assessment of the costs and benefits of accommodating later retirement ages, and they describe options employers may use to create some new form of employment contract with aging workers.

The most prominent issues employers with aging workers face are declining …

How Did Employee Ownership Firms Weather The Last Two Recessions?: Employee Ownership, Employment Stability, And Firm Survival In The United States: 1999-2011, Fidan Ana Kurtulus, Douglas L. Kruse

Upjohn Press

Employee ownership firms offer workers the opportunity to own a stake in the firms where they work. This affords them the ability to share in profits and have a voice in firm-related decision-making. In this comprehensive new book, Kurtulus and Kruse provide new evidence on whether employee ownership firms are better equipped to survive recessions. In particular, they focus on broad-based employee ownership, which includes ownership at all levels in the firm’s hierarchy.

Confronting Policy Challenges Of The Great Recession: Lessons For Macroeconomic Policy, Eskander Alvi Editor

Upjohn Press

This book presents several notable economists who describe the perils the economy faced during the Great Recession and the policies—some successful, others not so much—that were implemented and why. By now, economists have had nearly a decade to examine the causes and consequences of the damage wrought by the Great Recession, and to assess the ensuing efforts to right the economy. The unprecedented losses, which spread across the global economy, posed extraordinary challenges for central bankers and policymakers alike, who were forced to throw out the playbook and create new, untested means for restoring growth.

Wage Shocks And The Technological Substitution Of Low-Wage Jobs, Daniel Aaronson, Brian Phelan

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We extend the task-based empirical framework used in the job polarization literature to analyze the susceptibility of low-wage employment to technological substitution. We find that increases in the cost of low-wage labor, via minimum wage hikes, lead to relative employment declines at cognitively routine occupations but not manually-routine or non-routine low-wage occupations. This suggests that low-wage routine cognitive tasks are susceptible to technological substitution. While the short-run employment consequence of this reshuffling on individual workers is economically small, due to concurrent employment growth in other low-wage jobs, workers previously employed in cognitively routine jobs experience relative wage losses.

Who Wins In An Energy Boom? Evidence From Wage Rates And Housing, Grant D. Jacobsen

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper presents evidence on the distributional effects of energy extraction by examining the recent U.S. energy boom. The boom increased local wage rates in almost every major occupational category. The increase occurred regardless of whether the occupation experienced a corresponding change in employment, suggesting a more competitive labor market that benefited local workers. Local housing values and rental prices both increased, thereby benefiting landowners. For renters, the increase in prices was completely offset by a contemporaneous increase in income. The results indicate that bans on drilling have negative monetary consequences for a large share of local residents.

Do Recessions Accelerate Routine-Biased Technological Change? Evidence From Vacancy Postings, Brad J. Hershbein, Lisa B. Kahn

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We show that skill requirements in job vacancy postings differentially increased in MSAs that were hit hard by the Great Recession, relative to less hard-hit areas, and that these differences across MSAs persist through the end of 2015. The increases are prevalent within occupations, more pronounced in the non-traded sector, driven by both within-firm upskilling and substitution from older to newer firms, accompanied by increases in capital stock, and are evident in realized employment. We argue that this evidence reflects the restructuring of production toward more skilled workers and routine-labor saving technologies, and that the Great Recession accelerated this process.

New Research On The Price Pass-Through Effects Of The Minimum Wage, Daniel Macdonald

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Differential Mortality And The Progressivity Of Social Security, Shantanu Bagchi

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

I examine if the positive correlation between wealth and survivorship has any implications for the progressivity of Social Security’s current benefit-earnings rule. Using a general-equilibrium macroeconomic model calibrated to the U.S. economy, I show that the optimal benefit-earnings link for Social Security is largely insensitive to wealth-dependent mortality risk. This is because while a more progressive benefit-earnings rule provides increased insurance for households with relatively unfavorable earnings histories, and therefore lower savings and survivorship, their relatively high mortality risk heavily discounts the utility from old-age consumption. I find that these two effects roughly offset each other, yielding nearly identical optimal …

Creating Jobs For Women: U.S. Experience, Randall W. Eberts

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Displaced Long-Term Workers, Randall W. Eberts

Presentations

No abstract provided.

The Effects Of Increasing The Minimum Wage On Prices: Analyzing The Incidence Of Policy Design And Context, Daniel Macdonald, Eric Nilsson

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We analyze the price pass-through effect of the minimum wage and use the results to provide insight into the competitive structure of low-wage labor markets. Using monthly price series, we find that the pass-through effect is entirely concentrated on the month that the minimum wage change goes into effect, and is much smaller than what the canonical literature has found. We then discuss why our results differ from that literature, noting the impact of series interpolation in generating most of the previous results. We then use the variation in the size of the minimum wage change to evaluate the competitive …

The Labor Market Consequences Of Regulating Similar Occupations: The Licensing Of Occupational And Physical Therapists, Jing Cai, Morris M. Kleiner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This study shows the influence of occupational licensing on two occupations that provide similar services: occupational therapists and physical therapists. Most of the tasks for these two occupations differ, but several jobs overlap, and individuals in both occupations could have legal jurisdiction over these tasks. We empirically examine how these two occupations interact with one another in the labor market on wage determination and employment. Unlike previous studies, our study examines two occupations that are female dominated both within the professions and among its leadership. Our results show that occupational licensing can raise the wages of members of both occupations, …

Effects Of The Affordable Care Act On Part-Time Employment: Early Evidence, Marcus Dillender, Carolyn J. Heinrich, Susan N. Houseman (Corresponding Author)

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) requires employers with at least 50 full-time-equivalent employees to offer “affordable” health insurance to employees working 30 or more hours per week. If employers do not comply with the mandate, they may face substantial financial penalties. Employers can potentially circumvent the mandate by reducing weekly hours below the 30-hour threshold or by using other nonstandard employment arrangements (direct-hire temporaries, agency temporaries, small contractors, and independent contractors). We examine the effects of the ACA on short-hours, part-time employment. Using monthly CPS data, we estimate that the ACA resulted in an increase in low-hours, involuntary part-time employment …

College Grads Earn Less If They Grew Up Poor, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein

Reports

No abstract provided.

Are There Returns To Experience At Low-Skill Jobs? Evidence From Single Mothers In The United States Over The 1990s, Adam Looney, Dayanand S. Manoli

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Policy changes in the United States in the 1990s resulted in sizable increases in employment rates of single mothers. We show that this increase led to a large and abrupt increase in work experience for single mothers with young children. We then examine the economic return to this increase in experience for affected single mothers. Despite the increases in experience, single mothers’ real wages and employment have remained relatively unchanged. The empirical analysis suggests that an additional year of experience increases single mothers’ wage rates by less than 2 percent, a percentage lower than previous estimates in the literature.

Domestic Outsourcing In The United States: A Research Agenda To Assess Trends And Effects On Job Quality, Annette Bernhardt, Rosemary L. Batt, Susan N. Houseman, Eileen Appelbaum

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The goal of this paper is to develop a comprehensive research agenda to analyze trends in domestic outsourcing in the United States—firms’ use of contractors and independent contractors—and its effects on job quality and inequality. In the process, we review definitions of outsourcing, the available scant empirical research, and limitations of existing data sources. We also summarize theories that attempt to explain why firms contract out for certain functions and assess their predictions about likely impacts on job quality. We then lay out in detail a major research initiative on domestic outsourcing, discussing the questions it should answer and providing …

Wage Insurance As A Policy Option In The United States, Stephen A. Wandner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Wage insurance is a program that attempts to help permanently displaced workers transition to employment rapidly, effectively, and equitably. Because displaced workers have been found to suffer substantial earnings losses when they become reemployed, a wage insurance program provides a temporary wage supplement that partially reduces the wage loss experienced by targeted, newly reemployed workers. While participating workers receive a “wage supplement,” the program is called “wage insurance” because of its design as a social insurance program rather than an income transfer program. This paper provides a discussion of the development of wage insurance as a policy option in the …

The Impact Of Nurse Turnover On Quality Of Care And Mortality In Nursing Homes: Evidence From The Great Recession, Yaa Akosa Antwi, John R. Bowblis

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We estimate the causal effect of nurse turnover on mortality and the quality of nursing home care with a fixed effect instrumental variable estimation that uses the unemployment rate as an instrument for nursing turnover. We find that ignoring endogeneity leads to a systematic underestimation of the effect of nursing turnover on mortality and quality of care in a sample of California nursing homes. Specifically, 10 percentage point increase in nurse turnover results in a facility receiving 2.2 additional deficiencies per annual regulatory survey, reflecting a 19.3 percent increase. Not accounting for endogeneity of turnover leads to results that suggest …