Economics Commons^™

Unconventional Monetary Policy And Disaster Risk: Evidence From The Subprime And Covid–19 Crises, Gustavo S. Cortes, George P. Gao, Felipe B. G. Silva, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We compare the interventions conducted by the Federal Reserve in response to the subprime and COVID–19 crises with respect to their effectiveness in reducing disaster risk. Using model-free measures of disaster risk derived from daily options data, we document that interventions in response to both crises reduced tail risks in domestic equity markets. The spillover effects of the two crises have been markedly dissimilar. While subprime interventions are generally characterized by negative spillovers to international equity markets, policy responses to the COVID–19 crisis are generally associated with positive spillovers. We interpret these results as consistent with the different degrees of …

(Wp 2022-03) Managing Contagion: Covid, Public Health, And Reflexive Behavior, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper characterizes a pandemic as one kind of contagion, and defines a contagion as a two-level, two-direction, reflexive feedback loop system. In such a system, experts’ opinions can act as self-fulfilling prophecies that significantly influence social behavior. Also, when multiple experts produce multiple, expert opinions can fragment a society’s response to a pandemic worsening rather than ameliorating it. This paper models this with two competing expert opinions, associates them with club goods and common pool goods types of circumstances, and argues that to combat fragmentation of opinion a focus on public health public good provision needs to be framed …

Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2022, Michael W. Clark, James P. Ziliak, Simon Sheather

Kentucky Annual Economic Report

This report is one of the important ways that the Center for Business and Economic Research fulfills its mission to examine various aspects of Kentucky’s economy as directed by the Kentucky Revised Statutes (KRS 164.738). The analysis and data presented here cover a variety of topics that range from a discussion of Kentucky’s current economic climate to a broad presentation of factors affecting the economy.

The report covers numerous dimensions of Kentucky’s economy including the effects of COVID-19. As the pandemic approaches its third year, COVID-19 continues to dominate the economic narrative. Many aspects of the economy have improved substantially …

Short-Term Impact Of Covid-19 On Consumption Spending And Its Underlying Mechanisms: Evidence From Singapore, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh, Xuan Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We examine the short-term impact of COVID-19 on consumption spending and labor market outcomes. Using monthly panel data of individuals mainly aged 50–70 in Singapore, we find that COVID-19 reduced consumption spending and labor market outcomes immediately after its outbreak, and its negative impact quickly evolved. At its peak, the pandemic reduced total household consumption spending by 22.8% and labor income by 5.9% in April. Probability of full-time work also went down by 1.2 pp and 6.0 pp in April and May, respectively, but employment and self-employment were only mildly affected. Our heterogeneity analysis indicates that the reduction in consumption …

The Effects Of Increased Access To Mail-In And Absentee Voting Due To Covid-19 On Voter Turnout In The 2020 Presidential Election, Irene Catlin Hedeman

Undergraduate Economic Review

With new voting policies in the fallout from the 2020 election, it is critical to understand their effects on voter turnout. I use a difference-in-differences approach to study effects of absentee voting policies from the fall of 2020 on voter turnout in four states. Using county-level data on the 2008-2020 presidential elections, I estimate turnout based on the county’s policy for the 2020 election. I use three sets of states, and I find positive effects on voter turnout for all three sets, two of which are significant. The results from the Montana policy hold through the robustness checks.

Covid-19, Vaccines, And Decision Theory, Michael A. Lewis

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

In this piece, I delve into some thoughts I've had about decision theory. These have been inspired by the vaccine rollout phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic. I focus on decision making under uncertainty, as it relates to the decision to get vaccinated or not.

The Effect Of Covid-19 On The Performance Of Listed Firms: Do The Governments’ Policies And Vaccination Rates Play A Role? Evidence From Countries In The Middle East And North Africa, Mofida El Bassioni

Theses and Dissertations

This study uses a quantitative approach to estimate the empirical results of COVID-19, stringency index, and vaccination rates on the stock returns of Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and UAE. Additionally, the researcher included firm-specific variables such as liquidity and leverage, total capital, employees, and date of incorporation. Total capital and employees were used as proxies for company size and for whether the firm is capital intensive or not, while date of incorporation was used as a proxy for company age. Additionally, the researcher created interaction strings between COVID-19 cases and stringency index, COVID- 19 cases and …

Data Analytics For Crisis Management: A Case Study Of Sharing Economy Services In The Covid-19 Pandemic, Bahri Haciibrahimoglu

Selected Full Text Dissertations, 2011-

This dissertation study aims to analyze the role of data-driven decision-making in sharing economy during the COVID-19 pandemic as a crisis management tool. In the twenty-first century, when applying analytical tools has become an essential component of business decision-making, including operations on crisis management, data analytics is an emerging field. To carry out corporate strategies, data-driven decision-making is seen as a crucial component of business operations. Data analytics can be applied to benefit-cost evaluations, strategy planning, client engagement, and service quality. Data forecasting can also be used to keep an eye on business operations and foresee potential risks. Risk Management …

Part 1: Inflation, Uncertainty, And Volatility Undermine Virginia's Recovery, Dragas Center For Economic Analysis And Policy, Old Dominion University

State of the Commonwealth Reports

If the story of 2020 was the pandemic and the tale of 2021 was the recovery, then rising inflation and interest rates dominated the narrative of 2022. The economic recovery remained incomplete, with jobs returning to pre-pandemic levels but some Virginians remaining outside the labor force. Now, with the possibility of a recession in 2023 looming, we ask how Virginia fared over the last 12 months and what are the prospects for future growth?

Three Papers On Sell-Side Financial Analysts, Zheng Liu

2022

This first paper (co-authored) tests the effect of Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II), which entered into force on 3 January 2018, on European-based sell-side financial analysts. We find that MiFID II, in part, unbundles brokers’ execution and research services. We assess the effectiveness of MiFID II in unbundling and find that the trading volume generated by the brokers that issued recommendation revisions declined significantly after the enactment of MiFID II. Further, in addition to a smaller price reaction to EU broker analysts’ recommendation revisions in the post period than in the pre period, these broker analysts appear …

Covid-19 Vaccine Disparities And Attitudes, Deonne Cartwright, Meryem Saygili

Pursue: Undergraduate Research Journal

The past couple of years have caused so much uncertainty and grief amidst the global pandemic. The goal of this study is to explore the attitudes behind COVID-19 vaccination to address the cause for vaccine disparities and help minimize health disparities in the United States. The study considers two multivariable regressions in SPSS of the social factors on vaccination status and vaccine confidence. This model studies the relationship between one’s ethnicity, race, education level, education specialization, household income, political ideology, and media source on vaccine confidence and vaccination status on an East Texas college campus. A campus-wide survey was conducted …

The Impact Of The Covid-19 Pandemic On Corporate Financial Fragility In The Vietnamese Manufacturing Industry, Trang Nguyen

Honors Theses

In the past decades, under the government’s export-led growth strategy, the Vietnamese manufacturing sector – the backbone of the whole Vietnamese economy – has established a deep tie with the international market and the reliance on foreign buyers has fueled the growth of this sector before COVID-19. However, during the pandemic, when the global market contracted at -3.5 percent and demand slumped globally, this existing growth model and the manufacturing sector’s reliance on foreign buyers induced significant risks to this sector from both the demand and supply side. Using the firm-level data on 41 manufacturing exporting companies from the Vietstock …

The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School of Economics

The economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Singapore was more severe and protracted than the global financial crisis. Singapore responded with easing of the monetary policy stance, reinforcing financial stability, helping individuals to reduce debt obligations, easing business cashflow constraints, adjusting financial regulatory and supervisory protocols to cope with immediate challenges, and enabling the financial sectors to build long-term capabilities. Fiscal responses were unprecedented with four consecutive budgets and two ministerial statements, initially focusing on immediate assistance in respect of jobs, businesses, households, and later refined to providing more sector-specific assistance as the pandemic evolved with more detailed information …

The Influence Of Political Party Affiliation And Park Accessibility On Covid-19 Case Incidence, Sascha Wolf-Sorokin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the joint effect of political party affiliation and the urban landscape, as measured by access to parks, on case rates during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The 2016 and 2020 U.S. Presidential Election returns are used as a proxy for a county’s political party affiliation prior to and during the COVID-19 pandemic. A county population’s spatial relationship to its parks encapsulates the green open space within an urban environment. The data set controls for features of the built environment, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics (race, gender, income, education), COVID-19 government regulations, and presidential election returns. Using …

Liquidity Outbreak: A 49 Country Analysis Of The Money Supply’S Effect On Stock Markets During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Dylan Porter

CMC Senior Theses

This paper compares the effects of monthly money growth on monthly stock market performance in 49 countries around the world before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Countries are grouped in aggregate, by continent, and development status. OLS panel regressions show that lagged monetary growth variables are better monetary indicators of stock market performance than contemporaneous values. Variables that measure the pandemic’s progress (infections/deaths and government responses) are included alongside macro-economic variables but are seldom significant. Monetary growth had less correlation with the stock market during the pre-pandemic period (January 2018 - December 2020), suggesting that the uncertain economic conditions of …

Stress Testing During Times Of War, Kathryn Judge

Faculty Scholarship

In the spring of 2009, the United States was mired in the greatest recession it had faced since the Great Depression. In March, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen to 6,594.44, a total decline of 53.4 percent from its peak in the fall of 2007. The official unemployment rate was over 9 percent and still trending upward, eventually exceeding 10 percent. With the support of Congress, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and other financial regulators had launched an array of initiatives to contain the fallout of what had become a global financial crisis. These interventions, including a massive recapitalization …

Jue Insight: Migration, Transportation Infrastructure, And The Spatial Transmission Of Covid-19 In China, Bingjing Li, Lin Ma

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper evaluates the impacts of migration flows and transportation infrastructure on the spatial transmission of COVID-19 in China. Prefectures with larger bilateral migration flows and shorter travel distances with Hubei, the epicenter of the outbreak, experienced a wider spread of COVID-19. In addition, richer prefectures with higher incomes were better able to contain the virus at the early stages of community transmission. Using a spatial general equilibrium model, we show that around 28% of the infections outside Hubei province can be explained by the rapid development in transportation infrastructure and the liberalization of migration restrictions in the recent decade.

The Impact Of Covid-19 On Stock Market And Exchange Rate Uncertainty In Pakistan, Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed, Kaneez Fatima, Mannan Zaheer

Business Review

This paper examines the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on exchange rate (EXU) and stock market uncertainty (SMU) in Pakistan while controlling for the effects of interest rate and policy interventions by the Government and the Central bank to combat the pandemic. We employ the vector autoregressive (VAR) model over a sample period ranging from February 25, 2020 to May 6, 2021. We find that a shock to total daily coronavirus cases in Pakistan has a positive and significant impact on both the EXU and SMU. However, this impact is short-lived which may be attributed to a timely policy response and …

Disparate Financial Assistance Support For Small Business Owners, Sophia Fox-Dichter, Daniel Auguste, Mathieu Despard, Michal Grinstein-Weiss

Social Policy Institute Research

Small business owners experienced a drastic economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Government pandemic assistance failed to reach many small business owners, especially those historically underserved by financial institutions. Drawing on a 2021 survey of 246 small business owners, the Social Policy Institute at Washington University in St. Louis descriptively examined the extent to which small business owners sought and received business assistance, and whether applications and approval of government assistance varied by race and ethnicity. We find that though Hispanic and Black business owners applied for government assistance at a higher rate than white business owners, Black business …

Financial Implication Of Covid-19: A Story Of Malaysian Dental Practitioner, Nor Faharina Abdul Hamid, Azlan Jaafar, Nurul Haini Najwa Mohamd Mahmod, Raja Nur Nabiha Raja Amir Hamzah

Journal of Dentistry Indonesia

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused series of lockdown in Malaysia which led to the significant financial impact to dental practitioner in Malaysia. Objectives: The aim of this study is to investigate factors affecting dental practice and its implication to financial situation during the pandemic in Malaysia. Methods: Registered Malaysian dental practitioners were invited to participate in online questionnaire via google form. Descriptive and Pearson’s chi-square test analysis were conducted (p<0.05). Results: 468 of dental practitioners had responded to our survey. More than three-quarter of dental practitioners worked in government sectors while almost a quarter worked in private sectors. 49.2% …

Distillers' Grains: Past, Present, And Future Economic Analyses, Daniel E. Gertner

Department of Agricultural Economics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This thesis is comprised of four chapters, each of which discusses or conducts economic research related to the distillers’ grains market. The first three chapters are meant to be standalone papers. Chapter four provides potential paths forward in distillers’ grains research based on the findings of the first three chapters and concludes the thesis.

The first chapter conducts a comprehensive literature review that categorizes and summarizes economic research on distillers’ grains products. This section shows how the physical market has moved beyond the current academic understanding of market products and structure. Existing research finds that traditional distillers’ grains products positively …

The Implications Of Covid-19 On Fear Of Financial Collapse, Alexis Reekie

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

By disrupting the general value paradigm, the typical hierarchy of values, individuals directly affected by the COVID-19 virus have realized an overall shift in perspective, indicating a need to understand the effects of the COVID-19 virus on one’s outlook regarding economic anxiety and fear of financial collapse. The possibility of a global health crisis reaching levels of devastation are certainly great and worth investigating. Throughout this research paper I worked to determine the correlation between fear of financial crises and individuals who have been affected by the COVID-19 virus. Utilizing the Chapman Survey of American Fears (FEAR survey) questions pertaining …

Economic Forecasting In An Epidemic: A Break From The Past?, Hwee Kwan Chow, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper aims to investigate whether the predictive ability and behaviour of professional forecasters are different during the Covid-19 epidemic as compared with the global financial crisis of 2008 and normal times. To this end, we utilise a survey of professional forecasters in Singapore collated by the central bank to analyse the forecasting record for GDP growth and CPI inflation. We first examine the point forecasts to document the extent of forecast failure in the pandemic crisis and test for behavioural explanations of the possible sources of forecast errors such as leader following and herding behaviour. Using percentile-based summary measures …

Does Precise Case Disclosure Limit Precautionary Behavior? Evidence From Covid-19 In Singapore, Aljoscha Janssen, Matthew H. Shapiro

Research Collection School Of Economics

Limiting the spread of contagious diseases can involve both government-managed and voluntary efforts. Governments have a number of policy options beyond direct intervention that can shape individuals’ responses to a pandemic and its associated costs. During its first wave of COVID-19 cases, Singapore was among a few countries that attempted to adjust behavior through the announcement of detailed case information. Singapore's Ministry of Health maintained and shared precise, daily information detailing local travel behavior and residences of COVID-19 cases. We use this policy along with device-level cellphone data to quantify how local and national COVID-19 case announcements trigger differential behavioral …

Economic Impact Of Targeted Government Responses To Covid-19: Evidence From The Large-Scale Cluster In Seoul, Kim, Kanghyock Koh, Jinwook Shin

Research Collection School Of Economics

We estimate the economic impact of South Korea's targeted responses to the first large-scale COVID-19 cluster in Seoul. We find that foot traffic and retail sales decreased only within a 300 meter radius of the cluster and recovered to its pre-outbreak level after four weeks. The reductions appear to be driven by temporary business closures rather than the risk avoidance behavior of the citizens. Our results imply that less intense, but more targeted COVID-19 interventions, such as pin-pointed, temporary closures of businesses, can be a low-cost alternative after lifting strict social distancing measures.

Growing During A Global Crisis, Ahmad E. Shahin

Theses and Dissertations

Employing the data from the World Bank Enterprise surveys, we examine how the first shock of the COVID-19 pandemic has affected firm dynamics across the world. Our first group of robust models have tested the effect of internal firms’ managerial decisions and other external factors on the sales’ growth, where we found that the most important decisions are related to preserving and increasing liquidity levels, in addition to utilizing the workforce in giving more input to maintain and grow the firms’ sales. Our second group of robust models have tested the firms’ financial decisions and other external factors on the …

Unscheduled Events, Stock Returns, And Market Efficiency: A Covid-19 Case Study Of Industry Leaders, Nathan R. Durham

Honors College Theses

This thesis explores the effects of unscheduled events on stock market returns due to increased uncertainty. A case study is done on the Coronavirus pandemic for the dates of March 9th, 2020, through March 23rd , 2020. The findings allow for short-run and long-run narratives where long-run returns, and short-run volatility explain how the role of psychology and different forecasting strategies are used to differentiate industry outcomes and technology sector returns.

Covid-19 And Women-Led Businesses Around The World, Yu Liu, Siqi Wei, Jian Xu

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The impacts of crises are never gender-neutral, and the COVID-19 pandemic is no exception. Using a brand-new dataset covering 24 countries, we document that women-led businesses are subject to a higher likelihood of closure and a longer closure duration than men-led businesses during the pandemic. Women business leaders are also more pessimistic about the future than men business leaders. The disadvantages suffered by women-led businesses widen in high gender inequality economies and developing economies. Our results further indicate that finance and labor factors are likely to be the major contributors to these disadvantages. We suggest that COVID-19′s policy response should …

Impacting Community Well-Being In Lafayette, Indiana, In The Midst Of A Pandemic, Eli Coltin, Eric Flaningam, Jace Newell, Jason Ware

Purdue Journal of Service-Learning and International Engagement

For the past five years, Dr. Jason Ware has centered community-based research and service-learning courses around local community partners’ needs as they focused collectively on community well-being issues. The nature of their work has prioritized qualitative research methods such as narrative inquiry via in-depth interviews and ethnography via immersive observations within varying service-providing institutions such as the Hartford Hub and the Hanna Community Center. COVID-19 and the constant threat of its transmission meant that Dr. Ware, his students, and their community partners had to approach their work differently. They responded with a pivot. They turned to mining large publicly accessible …

Exploring Optimal Lockdown Policies During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Cameron Bundy

Symposium Of University Research and Creative Expression (SOURCE)

COVID-19 has impacted public and economic health worldwide. To bolster the economy and maintain human life, economic and epidemiological research is vital. Nations have implemented lockdowns intent on slowing the spread of the virus. This research examines how lockdown parameter adjustments can help control a nations fatalities. The study incorporated an SIRD disease model that is simulated over a 200 day period. The goal of the research is to take the SIRD model and use it to create a minimization function that analyzes dynamics that best produce minimal loss of GDP as well as low loss of life in a …