Economics Commons^™

How Do Minimum Wages Affect Workplace Injuries?, Michael Davies, R. Jisung Park, Anna Stansbury

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Minimum Wages And Workplace Injuries, Michael Davies, R. Jisung Park, Anna Stansbury

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

How do minimum wage changes affect workplace amenities? Using the universe of claims from California, the US’ largest workers’ compensation system, over 2000-2019, we exploit geographic variation in state- and city-level minimum wages and local occupation-level variation in exposure to minimum wage changes to estimate whether minimum wage increases affect the rate of workplace injuries. We find a large adverse effect of raising minimum wages on injuries. A 10% increase in the minimum wage increases the injury rate by 7.2% in an occupation-metro area labor market which is fully exposed to the minimum wage increase. Our results imply an elasticity …

Time Invariant Variables In The Mundlak And Hausman-Taylor Panel Data Models, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper shows that the classic augmented Mundlak (1978) regression yields the between estimator for time-invariant variables. It is well known that the estimates of the time varying variables yield the fixed effects estimates. While the latter are consistent for this correlated random effects model, the between estimates are not. The between estimator is consistent only when the Hausman (1978) test does not reject the null based on between versus fixed effects. An alternative modified Hausman and Taylor (1981) estimator is proposed. Monte Carlo experiments are performed to compare various estimators under a correlated random effects as well as a …

Two Special Spatial Weight Matrices And Their Effects On Estimation And Testing In Spatial Regressions, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper collects in one place some of the consequences of using two special spatial weight matrices in the spatial econometrics literature. The two weight matrices considered are the equal weight spatial matrix and the complete bipartite network. In particular, we summarize the effects of these special weight matrices on the statistical properties of commonly used spatial estimators as well as commonly used tests for spatial dependence.

How Changes In Mexican Immigration To The United States Affect Mexican Labor Markets, Gonzalo Ares De Parga-Regalado, Marta Prato

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Us‐China Trade War: Heterogeneous Effects On The Us Consumer, Michael Dedad, Sucharita Ghosh

University Research

This paper meticulously investigates how the US-China trade war of 2018–19 affected nondurable consumption patterns for households across the United States. Using highly granular NielsenIQ barcode scanner data, we find that a 1 percentage point (pp) increase in a county's tariff exposure growth was associated with a decrease in nondurable consumption growth ranging between 0.593 pp and 2.163 pp. Notably, this relationship existed for employed households but not for those without employment, and it was not confined to those working in manufacturing and farming. Additionally, households with children had lower consumption growth as tariff exposure increased, and the relationship was …

On The Origins Of Modern East Asia: Knowledge And The Economic Transformation Of Japan And China In The Late 19th Century, Debin Ma, Jared Rubin, Weiwen Yin

ESI Working Papers

This paper revisits the old thesis of the contrasting paths of modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of knowledge acquisition (propositional vs. prescriptive) and political centralization as the key drivers behind these contrasting paths. Our model and historical data highlight how the introduction of these elements contributed to Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West and Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism. Our analytical framework, developed from a comparative historical narrative and quantitative data, sheds new light on the importance of knowledge acquisition in enabling developing countries to reach the world’s …

Flex, Pivot, Sustain: Adaptive Design Of Promise Programs, Michelle Miller-Adams, Jennifer Iriti

Reports

The design of a Promise program or place-based college scholarship requires community partners to make three key decisions: 1) Which students are eligible, 2) Where can students use the scholarship?, and 3) How should the scholarship be structured? Changes in available funding may affect all three decisions. This practice brief, developed in conjunction with the Kresge Foundation, lays out key principles for redesigning Promise programs when available funding changes, providing three case study examples to illustrate how program officials navigated redesign choices.

The Effects Of Declining U.S. Immigration On Local Labor Markets In Mexico, Gonzalo Ares De Parga-Regalado, Marta Prato

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper examines how declining migration opportunities to the United States affect local labor markets in Mexico. Using novel micro-level data from consular identification cards and deportations, we link individuals’ Mexican municipalities of origin to their U.S. destination states. We implement a shift-share design based on historical migration networks and exploit regional variation in exposure to changes in U.S. migration flows between 2017 and 2022 to identify the local labor market effects of reduced emigration while controlling for involuntary repatriations. While we find no impact on overall employment rates, regions more exposed to the decline in migration experience an increase …

Opportunities, Challenges, And Conspicuous Absences: An Integrative Review Of The Social Work Literature On Artificial Intelligence, Michael J. Massey, Ian G. Williams, Grace C. Polistina, Eathan A. Breaux

Publications and Research

INTRODUCTION: Social work discourse regarding artificial intelligence (AI) in practice, research, and education has proliferated over the last 5 years, reflecting both excitement over its potential and ambivalence about its ethical challenges. However, the extent to which social work is fully engaging with the structure of AI and its enormous impacts on the environment, labour, and distribution of power remains unclear.

METHODS: An integrative review of social work literature from 2020–2024 was conducted to address two research questions: 1) What is the nature of the social work discourse related to AI? 2) To what extent is the discourse …

From Farm To Fork, And Beyond: The International Politics Of Food Standards, Julia E. Srnec

The Downtown Review: An Interdisciplinary Journal Written and Peer-Reviewed by Mandel Honors College Students at Cleveland State University

Food safety standards are incredibly politically charged due to how much they can differ between countries and how implementing new standards in a country can impact the economy of those depending on the exports of food products. The political division regarding food safety standards can begin to be understood once the impacts on national and international economics, as well as the consequences of regulations beyond the economy, are considered. Nongovernmental organizations such as the World Health Organization help to mitigate conflict over trade policy disagreements, however some divisions persist.The use of non-tariff barriers on the imports of food-related goods can …

Cbdcs Vs Decentralized Currencies: Considerations For 21st Century Global Financial Challenges, Andrew Michael Sobhy, Shuai Wang

The Downtown Review: An Interdisciplinary Journal Written and Peer-Reviewed by Mandel Honors College Students at Cleveland State University

As digital currencies gain prominence in everyday life, policymakers in the United States at the federal, state, and local levels debate the potential for innovation, surveillance, global relations, and a plethora of areas that concern citizens. While existing literature highlights the opportunities and pitfalls within this new digital age, including inclusivity and challenges to traditional banking, this study aims to contribute a quantitative approach to the discussion utilizing Federal Reserve data, studies from financial institutions, and various credible resources that hold a stake. Specifically, comparing novel Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDCs) and Decentralized Financial Currencies (DeFi) will provide a foundation …

Monetary Policy And Racial Differentials In Labor Market Outcomes, Tsvetomir Petkov, Charles L. Weise

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper examines the empirical relationship between monetary policy and racial and ethnic labor market outcomes. Estimating structural vector autoregressions with external instruments, we find a much larger response of labor market outcome gaps than has been documented previously. These differential outcomes persist for Black workers of both sexes even within the same age group and level of educational attainment, while Hispanic and white responses are similar within such groupings. Estimates based on individual-level data show that distributional differences in demographic characteristics, as well as occupation and industry of employment, account for a large portion of the Hispanic-white unemployment gap …

Sustainability And Stability: Esg–Credit Risk Dynamics In Eu Banks, Jan Porenta, Iza Matko, Riste Ichev

Economic and Business Review

This study examines the relationship between bank-specific environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance and credit risk in the European Union (EU), focusing on differences between euro area (EA) and non-EA banks, as well as developed versus emerging EU markets. Using panel data for 87 EU banks from 2014–2023 and static fixed-effects models, credit risk is measured via ratios of nonperforming loans to loans, assets, and equity, while ESG is assessed using both ESG and ESG combined scores. Results show a statistically significant negative association between ESG performance and credit risk for the full sample, EA banks, and banks in developed …

Retaliation Management : Trade Imbalance And China’S Retaliatory Tariffs During The 2018 Trade War, Jinpo Li

Lingnan Theses (MPhil & PhD)

In 2018, the United States initiated a trade conflict with China, prompting a counter-response by the latter. Despite extensive research into the ramifications of the US-China trade conflict, the intricacies of China’s strategic formulation of retaliatory tariffs remain unclear. This study focuses on how the trade imbalance influences China’s retaliatory tariff strategies during the trade war. Our findings suggest that China’s retaliatory measures mainly concentrate on products with which China maintains a bilateral trade surplus vis-à-vis the United States. On an extensive margin, notwithstanding the comprehensive tariff imposition on US imports, products that represent a surplus are more likely to …

Immigration Enforcement And Origin Country Labor Markets, Thomas Pearson

Center for Policy Research

This paper studies how increased immigration enforcement in the destination country impacts labor markets in the origin country. Using variation in Mexican migrant networks and Secure Communities (SC), a policy which expanded local immigration enforcement, I show that the deportation of Mexican migrants from the U.S. increases return migration to Mexico and decreases monthly earnings for workers in Mexico. The negative earnings effects are largest for workers most similar to return migrants in terms of their demographics, occupations, and employment types, and are consistent with increased labor market competition.

The Price Of Democracy: The Revolutionary Power Of Taxation In American History, Vanessa Williamson

Brookings Scholar Lecture Series

As part of the Brookings Scholar Lecture Series, Brookings Mountain West presented a lecture titled, "The Price of Democracy: The Revolutionary Power of Taxation in American History" by Brookings senior fellow in governance studies, Vanessa Williamson.

From tariffs to “no tax on tips”, taxation has often been a hot topic in American elections. What is not commonly recognized, however, is that—from the framing of the Constitution to the decades-long backlash to the civil rights movement—taxes have been at the heart of battles over the breadth of our democracy. Brookings senior fellow Vanessa Williamson discusses her new book, The Price of …

Markets, Agency, And Trust: Ai Agents And The Knowledge Problem, Brennan Mcdavid, Lynne Kiesling, David Chassin

Philosophy Faculty Articles and Research

Artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming market participation, raising key epistemological questions: Do AI agents enhance or diminish the aggregation of local, private, and tacit knowledge Hayek saw as essential to market processes? How does trust in both markets and AI shape willingness to engage in AI-mediated exchange? This paper examines these issues through market epistemology, agency relationships, and trust epistemology, analyzing how agentic AI reshapes the knowledge problem and principal-agent dynamics. Applying this framework to transactive energy markets, we show that AI shifts decision-making from human cognition to algorithmic processes that require user trust despite epistemic opacity, although it is …

How To Design A State Child And Dependent Care Tax Credit That Works, Gabrielle Pepin

Reports

High care costs for children and older adults put an increasing strain on American families, often pushing caregivers out of the workforce. While investments in affordable care deliver lasting benefits for families, employers, and the economy, the federal Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) falls short—leaving states well positioned to make a difference. This Policy Blueprint highlights three ways the CDCTC fails families, and three solutions for designing a state tax credit that can help.

The History Of Philanthropic Wealth In Maine, Jillian Foley Mppm, Timothy Atkinson Mppm, Emma Schwartz

Justice Policy

This report (March 2026) was developed in collaboration with the Maine Philanthropy Center to invite readers to engage in an honest exploration of how wealth was accumulated in Maine and how our history continues to shape our communities today. Grounded in research and interviews with historians and philanthropic leaders, the report examines the connections between extractive histories and modern-day philanthropic structures. The authors aim to guide readers to explore the historical context, reflect on their own histories, and consider more equitable, restorative approaches to community-centered giving. While this report was designed with funders and nonprofit leaders in mind, the authors …

Bridging Gaps In Data Utilization: An Evaluation Of The Rural Utah Data Symposium, Paul A. Hill

Outcomes and Impact Quarterly

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Rural Utah Data Symposium, an event designed to address data-driven decision-making among rural leaders. The symposium features expert-led presentations on the rural economy, healthcare, housing, mobility, broadband, and wellbeing. Data were collected through an online exit survey with a 67% response rate (n = 35). Attendees rated presentation quality, learning outcomes, and overall satisfaction. Findings show high ratings and positive learning outcomes, demonstrating the symposium’s value in empowering informed decision-making. Recommendations include increasing interactivity among attendees, broadening content scope, and expanding statewide representation to further support data utilization in rural Utah.

Delegation And Verification Under Ai, Lingxiao Huang, Wenyang Xiao, Nisheeth K. Vishnoi

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

As AI systems enter institutional workflows, workers must decide whether to delegate task execution to AI and how much effort to invest in verifying AI outputs, while institutions evaluate workers using outcome-based standards that may misalign with workers’ private costs. We model delegation and verification as the solution to a rational worker’s optimization problem, and define worker quality by evaluating an institution-centered utility (distinct from the worker’s objective) at the resulting optimal action. We formally characterize optimal worker workflows and show that AI induces phase transitions, where arbitrarily small differences in verification ability lead to sharply different behaviors. As a …

On Local Overidentification And Efficiency Gains In Modern Causal Inference And Data Combination, Xiaohong Chen, Haitian Xie

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies nonparametric local (over-)identification and the semiparametric efficiency in modern causal frameworks. We develop a unified approach that begins by translating structural models with latent variables into their induced statistical models of observables and then analyzes local overidentification through conditional moment restrictions. We apply this approach to three popular classes of causal models: (1) the general treatment model under unconfoundedness; (2) the negative control model, and (3) the long-term causal inference model under unobserved confounding. The first model yields a locally just-identified statistical model, implying that all regular asymptotically linear estimators of the treatment effect have the same …

Triple/Double-Debiased Lasso, Denis Chetverikov, Joseph R.V. Sørensen, Aleh Tsyvinski

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In this paper, we propose a triple (or double-debiased) Lasso estimator for inference on a low-dimensional parameter in high-dimensional linear regression models. The estimator is based on a moment function that satisfies not only first- but also second-order Neyman orthogonality conditions, thereby eliminating both the leading bias and the second-order bias induced by regularization. We derive an asymptotic linear representation for the proposed estimator and show that its remainder terms are never larger and are often smaller in order than those in the corresponding asymptotic linear representation for the standard double Lasso estimator. Because of this improvement, the triple Lasso …

First Proof Solutions And Comments, Mohammed Abouzaid, Andrew J. Blumberg, Martin Hairer, Joe Kileel, Tamara G. Kolda, Paul D. Nelson, Daniel Spielman, Nikhil Srivastava, Rachel Ward, Shmuel Weinberger, Lauren Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Here we provide our solutions to the First Proof questions. We also discuss the best responses from publicly available AI systems that we were able to obtain in our experiments prior to the release of the problems on February 5, 2025. We hope this discussion will help readers with the relevant domain expertise to assess such responses.

Stochastic Optimization And Coupling, Frank Yang, Kai Hao Yang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study optimization problems in which a linear functional is maximized over probability measures that are dominated by a given measure according to an integral stochastic order in an arbitrary dimension. We show that the following four properties are equivalent for any such order: (i) the test function cone is closed under pointwise minimum, (ii) the value function is affine, (iii) the solution correspondence has a convex graph with decomposable extreme points, and (iv) every ordered pair of measures admits an order-preserving coupling. As corollaries, we derive the extreme and exposed point properties involving integral stochastic orders such as multidimensional …

Globalization And Structural Transformation: The Role Of Tradable Services, Sang Min Lee

Faculty Publications

This paper studies how globalization impacts structural transformation from goods to services. I construct a multi-country, multi-sector model in which the transformation occurs through changes in income, prices, comparative advantage, or input-output linkages. I parameterize it with data from 1995 to 2018 for 66 countries covering diverse stages of economic development. Decomposition exercises show that globalization outweighs productivity growth in shaping structural transformation and that globalization’s impact primarily operates through comparative advantage. Counterfactual exercises reveal globalization’s heterogeneous impact on countries’ structural transformation. I characterize the underlying factor behind this result: Globalization affected countries’ transformation to the extent that it altered …

Farmers Markets As Community Infrastructure: Evidence From A Three-Year Statewide Data Project In Utah, Jaclyn Pace, Roslynn Mccann, Blue Cook, Steven Price, Lorali Smith, Dianna Parkynn, Joshua Cafferty

Outcomes and Impact Quarterly

Utah farmers markets play a critical role in food access, small business viability, and community connection, yet limited statewide data document their impact. The Utah Farmers Market Network (UFMN) and Utah State University (USU) Extension conducted a mixed-methods evaluation (2023–2025) and found that farmers markets make valuable contributions to the community.

The Changing Landscape Of International Development: An Introduction, Pascaline Dupas, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Rohini Pande

Discussion Papers

Since the late 1980s, extreme poverty has declined sharply, life expectancy and schooling have increased, and electoral democracy has expanded. However poverty reduction has slowed in recent years, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, amid intensifying conflict, fragility, climate risks, democratic backsliding, and the erosion of global trends—including trade integration and geopolitical stability—that once supported growth. These dynamics raise three interrelated questions: what barriers impede further progress; where will future growth in lower-income countries come from; and how can growth be broadly shared. Taking stock of 15 chapters forthcoming in Volume 6 of the Handbook of Development Economics, we discuss how …

The Changing Landscape Of International Development: An Introduction, Pascaline Dupas, Pinelopi Goldberg, Rohini Pande

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Since the late 1980s, extreme poverty has declined sharply, life expectancy and schooling have increased, and electoral democracy has expanded. However poverty reduction has slowed in recent years, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic, amid intensifying conflict, fragility, climate risks, democratic backsliding, and the erosion of global trends—including trade integration and geopolitical stability—that once supported growth. These dynamics raise three interrelated questions: what barriers impede further progress; where will future growth in lower-income countries come from; and how can growth be broadly shared. Taking stock of 15 chapters forthcoming in Volume 6 of the Handbook of Development Economics, we discuss how …