Economics Commons^™

Teen Suicide And The Outcomes Of Surviving Peers, Emily Cuddy, Janet Currie, Elisa Jácome, Lucy Manly

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

By age 17, a quarter of U.S. students have experienced a peer suicide. Using linked administrative data from South Carolina and a matched difference-in-differences design, we find that exposure to a peer’s self-harm death increases the probability of a self-harm diagnosis by nearly 50% and both the incidence and frequency of mental health visits. Effects on care use and criminal behavior are concentrated among white boys, and responses diverge by prior mental health history: students without a prior diagnosis increase felony offending rather than care-seeking. Deaths from assault and transportation accidents produce no comparable rise in self-harm, consistent with contagion.

The Legend Of The Bear Lake Monster, Melissa Anderson Asay

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

The Bear Lake Monster is a legend that has persisted for centuries. This monster is rooted in Shoshone oral traditions and hold the potential to be based off of fossils found in the Shoshone territory. This living legend was later amplified by Mormon settlers. One settler in particular, Joseph C. Rich, played a significant role in shaping its narrative. Though he eventually admitted to fabricating sightings to encourage settlement, belief in the creature remains alive today. The serpent’s presence in local lore has undeniably influenced the Bear Lake region, shaping both its identity and tourism industry. This legend serves as …

Cost-Effectiveness Evaluation Of Artificial Intelligence-Assisted Chest Radiograph Interpretation For Tuberculosis Screening In Rural Health Units In The Philippines, Harold Henrison C. Chiu, Bryan Christopher C. Lao, Gloanne C. Adolor

Graduate School of Business Publications

Background: Tuberculosis remains a major public health burden in the Philippines, where diagnostic delays are amplified by limited radiology capacity in rural health units (RHUs) and geographically isolated and disadvantaged areas (GIDAs). Computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) using artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted chest radiograph interpretation may shorten the screening pathway and reduce reliance on scarce specialist readers. However, its economic value for RHUbased tuberculosis screening has not been fully evaluated.
Methods: We developed a decision-tree cost-effectiveness model in Microsoft Excel 365 to compare AI-assisted chest radiograph interpretation with conventional manual radiologist or teleradiology interpretation among a theoretical annual cohort of 1,000 presumptive tuberculosis …

A Simulation Assessment Of The 'Law Of One Price', Caleb Wilkins

Computational and Data Sciences (MS) Theses

The ‘law of one price’ is an appealing notion regarding pricing of tradeable commodities that are priced in different currencies. It states that the prices of the same good in different markets should be equal after adjustment for exchange rates and that equality should persist through exchange rate fluctuations.

My research simulates the market conditions that should precipitate the ‘law of one price.’ Data was obtained from the simulated trade between algorithmic artificial intelligence agents that operated under induced boundedly rational market behaviors. Trade took place in two initially separate markets, a high-price market with a higher equilibrium price and …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 10, Number 8, Thomas M. Fullerton, Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

External Debt In Sub-Saharan Africa: A Five Country Case Study On External Lending, Andres Ramirez

International Studies (MA) Theses

This thesis examines China as a new external lender to Africa and analyzes if their large infrastructure loans are leading developing countries into debt distress, compared to Multilateral and Commercial Private financing. A regression analysis is run on a 10-year data set, 2014-2024, and analyzes the external debt service-to-revenue ratio, relative to the external debt stock by lender, across a panel of five East and West African economies, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Rwanda, and Benin. The empirical findings in the analysis shows that commercial private debt causes the most strain on a country’s external debt service to revenue ratio, but …

Hkc08 - Neglect At Your Own Risk? Evidence On Risk-Taking Prevalence And Motives From The Field, Saurabh Bhargava, Timothy Hyde

Oberlin College Kasper Economics and Business Working Paper Series

We study risky choice in a field setting where employees choose among goal-reward contracts resembling financial lotteries and where we observe both choices and beliefs. We find risk aversion and choice heterogeneity far exceeding expected utility predictions and unexplained by prominent behavioral motives like overconfidence, nonlinear decision weights, and loss aversion. We propose and experimentally validate a heuristic explanation for risk taking involving contingency neglect during pairwise evaluation. The heuristic fits the field and lab data better than leading alternative models, uniquely predicts the belief distortions and framing effects we document, and offers a potential explanation for empirical insurance puzzles.

A Machine Learning And Artificial Intelligence Sentiment Analysis Of Esg Disclosures, John Barnett Davis

Graduate Theses and Dissertations (2019 - present)

This dissertation examines whether environmental, social, and governance (ESG) disclosure sentiment extracted from SEC Form 10-K Item 1A risk disclosures aligns with Bloomberg ESG scores. The study combines SEC textual disclosures, Bloomberg ESG ratings, firm financial data, executive compensation data, and executive gender characteristics. Natural language processing and artificial intelligence methods, including FinBERT, Loughran-McDonald sentiment measures, BART-MNLI zero-shot classification, LLaMA-based ESG scoring, and readability analysis, are used to evaluate ESG-related disclosure signals. Results reveal that SEC 10-K Item 1A risk-factor sentiment and Bloomberg ESG scores represent related but distinct constructs. ESG sentiment in Item 1A is poorly aligned with third-party …

Hkc07 - Bayesian Conspiracy Theorists? Equivocal Signals And Persistent Polarization, Javier A. Granados Samayoa, Timothy Hyde

Oberlin College Kasper Economics and Business Working Paper Series

Conspiracy beliefs are the subject of a rich literature in psychology, which explains them through personal dysfunction. The corresponding economics literature is scant. We offer a demand-side model of belief in specific conspiracy theories with no biases, misspecification, or strategic manipulation. A conspiracy, by its nature, generates equivocal evidence about its own existence, because the same strength that produces more to detect also produces better concealment. We model belief in a specific conspiracy theory as learning about the strength 𝑞 of a cabal, a stand-in for the secretly coordinating actors of any conspiracy theory. In the baseline the cabal influences …

Hkc10 - Disasters, Labor Migration, And Migrant Downgrading: Evidence From Typhoons In The Philippines, Emir Murathanoglu

Oberlin College Kasper Economics and Business Working Paper Series

I study how typhoons affect international labor migration from Philippine municipalities using administrative data on the universe of new migrant contracts. Typhoons increase out-migration for up to three years, but simultaneously shift migrants toward lower-paying occupations and destinations. Average migrant cohort wages fall by 0.27– 0.41% for each 1% typhoon-induced increase in migration. This fall is not explained by observable selection, as typhoon-induced migrants have higher educational attainment. These patterns are consistent with a simple migration search model, where worsening origin conditions incentivize potential migrants to search and leave for lower-paying overseas contracts. Despite this downgrading, back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest 16–19% …

When Does Emigration Reduce Domestic Economic Activities? Evidence On The Loss Of Management Capacity From A Visa Lottery, Marup Hossain, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Discussion Papers

Economic development is often conceived as structural transformation and migration out of rural agriculture (Lewis, 1954; Fei & Ranis, 1964). Understanding development therefore requires us to identify how rural economies transform in response to emigration. We study how international migration reshapes domestic economic activity in origin households using a randomized visa lottery that gave Bangladeshi men job opportunities in Malaysia. Winning the lottery raises total household income through remittances, but income earned in Bangladesh declines due to contractions in nonfarm business activity. In contrast, crop income remains stable despite large reductions in agricultural input expenditures, because farming gets delegated through …

The Effect Of Childcare On Female Labor Supply And Child Development In Low And Middle Income Countries, Serena Goldberg, Costas Meghir

Discussion Papers

Childcare services can offer an opportunity for women to develop their careers and increase household income. At the same time, it can affect the development of children, depending on the quality of care. We first develop a collective model of the household as a conceptual framework to show how improving the availability of childcare can affect mothers’ labor market opportunities and earnings and how it can affect child development. We then review the literature on the effects of childcare on the employment and earnings of women and on child development. Childcare can increase mothers’ employment. However, limited work opportunities or …

From Personal To Personalized Goals: How Goal Nudges Improve Production, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Brice Corgnet, Roberto Hernán González

ESI Working Papers

We study how workers’ non-binding self-set goals affect their production and whether goal nudges (ability-calibrated goal hints) make goal setting more effective. In a real-effort task, participants first complete an ability pretest and are then assigned to one of three treatments: a no-goal baseline, a personal goal treatment with no external hint, or a personalized goal nudge that participants may accept or modify. We document a positive link between goals and production. However, merely asking workers to set goals is ineffective: when left unguided, workers anchor on conservative goals well below those induced by goal nudges, leading to underperformance. In …

Three Essays In Discrete Choice Analysis: Valuation, Attention Level, And Spatial Heterogeneity, Marcelo Pignatari

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

Understanding how people value food labels and environmental goods is essential for designing policies, incentives, and market mechanisms that improve the well-being of the population. In this study, we found that a local label indicating that fruit was produced in Utah makes Utahns value strawberries, gala apples, and dried tart cherries more. An organic label has a similar effect, which is especially strong for dried tart cherries. In contrast, a freshness label only increases value for fruits with a shorter shelf life, such as strawberries. We also found that people who chose to access clarifying information about what these labels …

Dynamics Of High-Growth Young Firms And The Role Of Venture Capitalists, Yoshiki Ando

Research Collection School Of Economics

Motivated by the substantial growth and upfront investments of venture capital (VC)-backed firms observed in administrative US Census data, this study develops a life-cycle firm dynamics model. In the model, startups choose the source of financing from VC, angel investors, or banks, depending on their growth potential, and invest in innovation. The calibrated model explains the life-cycle dynamics of firms with different sources of financing and suggests that venture capitalists' managerial advice accounts for around 22% of the growth in VC-backed firms. A counterfactual economy without VC financing would experience an aggregate consumption loss of around 0.46%.

Semiparametric Cointegrating Rank Selection For Curved Cross-Section Time Series, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Cointegrating rank selection is studied in a function space reduced rank regression where the data are time series of cross-section curves. Consistent cointegrating rank estimation is developed using information criteria extended to curve time series environments. The asymptotic theory involves two-parameter Gaussian processes that generalise the standard limit processes involved in cointegrating regressions. Simulations provide evidence of the effectiveness of consistent rank selection by the BIC criterion and the tendency of AIC to overestimate order as in standard lag order selection in autoregression, as well as in reduced rank regression with multiple time series.

Singapore In Global Value Chains: Implications Of The Trump Ii Tariffs, Pao-Li Chang, Ruoqing Chen

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines Singapore’s structural position in global value chains (GVCs) and the implications of the second Trump administration’s tariff escalation for Singapore and the broader ASEAN region. We proceed in three parts. First, using the ADB Multi-Regional Input–Output (MRIO) tables for 2019 and 2024, we characterise Singapore’s GVC participation and position. Singapore is the most GVCintensive economy in ASEAN, with nearly half of its gross exports comprising foreign value-added and a markedly downstream orientation. China is its dominant upstream partner across manufacturing and services—intermediating over 27% of foreign content in electronics and over 10% in chemicals—while Malaysia, Taiwan, and …

The Interplay Of Interdependence And Correlation In Bilateral Trade, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Following Crémer and McLean (1985, 1988) for finite type spaces and McAfee and Reny (1992) for continuous ones, we establish two respective sufficient conditions for the existence of efficient, ex ante budget-balanced mechanisms satisfying Bayesian incentive compatibility (BIC) and interim individual rationality (IIR) in bilateral trade settings with interdependent values and correlated beliefs. We then utilize the ex ante welfare (EAW) condition proposed by Kunimoto and Zhang (2026), which is necessary for the stricter requirement of ex post budget balance. We prove that while the EAW condition is sufficient in a two-type model and generalizes existing conditions in the literature, …

Pathways To The Streets: A Proposed Model Examining The Factors Influencing Gang Affiliation And Involvement Among Young Black Men In The United States, Ceauna L. Juarez

Dissertations

This literature review examined gang involvement among young Black men in the United States and explored the factors that contribute to joining gangs and the consequences that may follow. The first chapter provides a brief history of gang involvement in Black communities and introduces Erikson’s development model, self-determination theory, and the minorities’ diminished returns as the three theoretical frameworks. The second chapter discusses common challenges faced by young Black men who are currently involved in gangs or are at risk of joining. The chapter explores issues such as life expectancy after gang involvement, adverse childhood experiences, mental health concerns, and …

Ethics Under Siege: The Conflict In Tigray Through The Lens Of Just War Theory, Daniela Widya Purba

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

This research article explains the ethical principles of the conflict in Tigray based on the Just War Theory. By using the descriptive qualitative methodology, this research article draws data from secondary sources which includes; academic journals, news reports, as well as international legal instruments to analyze the moral trajectory of the conflict. This research begins with jus ad bellum, to assess Ethiopia’s government justification in declaring conflict within Tigray. While the government fulfilled the criteria of just cause and legitimate authority, the question stands on the ambiguous political intentions and the failure to enact peaceful alternatives before resulting in waging …

Presidential Visits As Foreign Policy Instruments: U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy In Trump’S Second Term, Atar Thaung Htet

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

Through an analysis of President Donald Trump's October 2025 travel to Asia, this study investigates the consequences of U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy under his second-term diplomacy. The paper examines three significant diplomatic encounters—the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, bilateral meetings in Japan, and the APEC Summit in South Korea—using a qualitative case study methodology based on role theory and foreign policy analysis. The results show that alliance-centered security cooperation, strategic balancing toward China, and selective economic engagement were U.S. Indo-Pacific goals. Through extremely transactional and bilateralized relations, presidential diplomacy allowed the United States to fulfill a number of foreign policy responsibilities, such …

The Impact Of Local Content Requirements Policy For 4g Lte Cell Phones On The Performance Of The Indonesian Telecommunications Industry, Gary Dabelza Abi, Mohamad Dian Revindo, Indri Br Situmorang

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

This study examines the impact of Indonesia's 2017 tightening of Local Content Requirements (LCR) for fourth-generation long-term evolution (4G LTE) mobile phones on firm performance in the telecommunications manufacturing industry, a setting characterized by a large domestic market but limited upstream electronics capability. Using firm-level data from the 2016 Economic Census and the 2017-2018 Large and Medium Manufacturing Survey, we examine the effects of raising the minimum LCR threshold from 20% to 30% on firm output, labor productivity, imported input intensity, and foreign capital ownership through pooled regressions with firm-level controls. The results show that the stricter LCR threshold is …

Strong Job Markets Don’T Just Raise Pay, They Improve Job Quality, Brad J. Hershbein, Katherine Lim, Douglas Webber, Mike Zabek

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

State Investments In Childcare In The Mountain West, 2026, Sophia Booth, Yiselle Olivas Ruiz, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet presents data on state investments in childcare and preschool programs in the five Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. BabyCenter’s 2026 analysis, “These are the best and worst states for childcare,” includes state-level data on childcare accessibility, affordability, public investment, and overall childcare rankings for all 50 states. This fact sheet focuses on childcare spaces per child, income spent on childcare, and state investment per child.

Do Universities Underpay Professors? Yes, Especially Women, Zhanhan Yu, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Implementation Of Halal Industry Financing Schemes In Indonesia: Strategies And Challenges, Sania Faradila Aisyah Supardi, Nurwahidin Nurwahidin

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

The link between the Halal Industrial Ecosystem and Sharia Finance has become an increasingly relevant and significant topic in the context of the rapidly developing global economy. This study aims to identify how the halal industry and Islamic finance support each other in an increasingly complex ecosystem. This study uses a literature review method that discusses the role of Islamic finance in providing financing support in accordance with Sharia principles for the halal industry, which includes financing for working capital, investment, and risk protection. Furthermore, this study also identifies the challenges faced by Islamic finance in supporting the halal industry, …

How Incentive Design Affects The Benefit-Cost Ratio Of Clean Energy Projects, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

From The Editor's Desk, Heather S. Mcmillan

Journal of the North American Management Society

No abstract provided.

Charismatic Leaders Role And Challenges During Crises, Tamer Hassan Abutahoun Phd

Journal of the North American Management Society

Since the first article about charismatic leadership by Weber was issued in 1946, numerous pieces of research have been published discussing several aspects of charismatic leadership. One of these aspects is the role of the charismatic leader during crisis and whether it is being impacted by crises or emerged during crises. Several articles have been published to investigate the role of charismatic leadership during crises along with how individuals perceived charismatic leadership during crises. Most of these articles utilized case studies to investigate the former mentioned relationship. However, each of these studies investigated the relationship between crises and charismatic leadership …

Potential Discriminatory Practices Related To Working Remotely, David M. Savino, Danielle C. Foster

Journal of the North American Management Society

There are numerous implications of the recent "return to the office" push, including evolving influences on corporate culture, job redesign, the role of technology, and the significant potential for unequal treatment and discrimination. Recent research and studies indicate that the workers involved in remote work are most likely to be women, workers of color, and the disabled. While remote work is not a protected classification under state or Federal law, these individuals are members of protected classes as determined by fair employment law. Therefore, disputed and evolving policies regarding the use of remote work related to these individuals could easily …