Economics Commons^™

Predicting High-Cap Tech Stock Polarity: A Combined Approach Using Support Vector Machines And Bidirectional Encoders From Transformers, Ian L. Grisham

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The abundance, accessibility, and scale of data have engendered an era where machine learning can quickly and accurately solve complex problems, identify complicated patterns, and uncover intricate trends. One research area where many have applied these techniques is the stock market. Yet, financial domains are influenced by many factors and are notoriously difficult to predict due to their volatile and multivariate behavior. However, the literature indicates that public sentiment data may exhibit significant predictive qualities and improve a model’s ability to predict intricate trends. In this study, momentum SVM classification accuracy was compared between datasets that did and did not …

The People And The Experts: Alternative Views On Economic Affairs, William D. Nordhaus, Douglas Rivers

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Are speculators driving up oil prices? Should we raise energy prices to slow global warming? The present study takes a small number of such questions and compares the views of economic experts with those of the public. This comparison uses a panel of 2000+ respondents from YouGov with the views of the panel of experts from the IGM at the Chicago Booth School. We found that most of the US population is at best modestly informed about major economic questions and policies. The low level of knowledge is generally associated with the intrusion of ideological, political, and religious views that …

Analyzing The Impact Of Automation On Employment In Different Us Regions: A Data-Driven Approach, Thejaas Balasubramanian

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Automation is transforming the US workforce with the increasing prevalence of technologies like robotics, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. As a result, it is essential to understand how this shift will impact the labor market and prepare for its effects. This culminating experience project aimed to examine the influence of computerization on jobs in the United States and answer the following research questions: Q1. What factors affect how likely different jobs will be automated? Q2. What are the possible effects of automation on the US workforce across states and industries? Q3. What are the meaningful predictors of the likelihood of …

Economic Impact Assessment Of Nature-Based Coastal Resilience Solutions In Charleston. Estimating Local Economic Effects With Algorithm-Based Supporting Tool., Oksana Veselkova

All Theses

Coastal cities are at the forefront of the risks induced by climate change. Local communities are adversely affected, but the essential cultural assets and economies are also at risk of damage or destruction. In the efforts to limit hazard risk exposure, local governments are increasingly planning for long-term flood protection. One prospective flood risk mitigation measure is living shorelines or nature-based adaptation. The coastal ecosystems, such as beaches, wetlands, barrier islands, oyster reefs, and salt marshes, deliver multiple benefits to communities, including recreation, natural resources, freshwater, and carbon sequestration. Moreover, when combined with structural solutions, they can effectively reduce water …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 5, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Cbdc: Context, Challenges, And Conditions For A Successful Adoption, Charlie Nhuc Hiang Lay

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Central bank digital currencies (CBDC) are the digital version of physical notes and coins. They are the latest milestone in the evolution of money over the centuries due to technological advancements. This digitalisation of physical money primarily serves as a medium of exchange that has a central bank anchor. There are two versions of CBDC, wholesale and retail. This thesis focuses on retail CBDC, which targets the general public and small daily transactions. It discusses the issues and the plausible implementation of a retail CBDC. A CBDC will preserve monetary sovereignty, foster financial stability, and counter private network effects, i.e., …

Efficient Estimation Of Generalized Nonparametric Model Under Additive Structure, Ying Xia

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In this thesis, we develop novel nonparametric estimation techniques for two distinct classes of models: (1) Generalized Additive Models with Unknown Link Functions (GAMULF) and (2) Generalized Panel Data Transformation Models with Fixed Effects. Both models avoid parametric assumptions on their respective link or transformation functions, as well as the distribution of the idiosyncratic error terms.

The first chapter aims to provide an in-depth and systematic introduction to cross- sectional and panel-data nonparametric transformation models, encompassing practical applications, a diverse range of estimation techniques, and the study of asymptotic properties. We discuss the advantages and limitations of these models and …

Essays On Large Panel Data Models With Two-Way Heterogeneity, Yiren Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of two papers that contribute to the estimation and inference theory of the panel data models with two-way slope heterogeneity. The first paper considers the panel quantile regression model with slope heterogeneity along both individuals and time. By modelling this two-way heterogeneity with the low-rank slope matrix, the slope coefficient can be estimated via the nuclear norm regularization followed by sample-splitting, row- and column-wise quantile regression, and debiasing. The inferential theory for the final slope estimator along with its factor and factor loading is derived. Two specification tests are proposed: one tests whether the slope coefficient is …

Dissertation On The Impacts Of Floods And Trade War On The Chinese Economy, Fan Zheng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In the first chapter of the dissertation, we study the impact of floods on microlevel firm performances in China for the period 2000-2009. Among the first in the literature, we identify the flood exposure directly at the firm level by combining the high-resolution satellite-observed inundation areas with the geocoded firm locations. We find that being hit by a flood is associated with an annual loss to output and productivity of around 6% and 5%, respectively, which persists in the long run. The impacts of floods extend to non-inundated firms in neighborhoods (of 4 kilometres in radius), but the negative effects …

The Effect Of The China Shock On The 2016 And 2020 Us Presidential Elections, Yike Zhou

Economics Honors Projects

Trade liberalization in 2000 opened up the door for increased trade between China and the US, favoring Chinese manufacturers. This period is often referred to as the "China shock" (Autor, 2013). This paper utilizes data collected from the MIT election lab, FRED, and David Dorn's published data to investigate the effect of the China import shock in the early 2000s on the most recent two US presidential elections. Our analysis, which employs commuting zone-level data, reveals that regions more adversely affected by the China shock were more likely to vote for the Republican Party, while regions that suffered less harm …

Zooming Out: A Retrospective Analysis Of Nontraditional Learning Modes' Effect On High School Graduation And Dropout During The 2020-2021 Covid-19 School Year, Jonah F. Klein-Collins

Economics Honors Projects

This paper examines the impact of nontraditional learning modes, such as online education, on high school graduation and dropout rates during the 2020-2021 Covid-19 school year. Using school-level data from the Illinois Report Card for 2012-2021, a difference-in-differences framework is used to estimate the average treatment effect of two groups: schools that used virtual learning modes for only part of the year and those that used it for nearly the entire year. The study reveals that virtual learning had a negligible effect on four-year graduation rates. However, schools that used virtual learning for only part of the year witnessed a …

Consumer Reaction To The Use Of Artificial Intelligence Chatbot On Distribution Of General Insurance In Singapore, Lai Hing Tan

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

As technology rapidly permeates all aspects of our lives, it is not unusual to question and even challenge the rationale on why certain industries are slower to adapt to the new digital age. Insurance is a business that is under scrutiny given its traditional ways of selling and legacy challenges. Why is technology investment in insurance companies lagging others? One emerging technological disruption is artificial intelligence (AI). It is the science of designing and building intelligent systems that can complete tasks traditionally performed by humans. AI is expected to fundamentally transform today’s marketplace, for businesses and consumers alike. However, because …

The Effect Of Yearly Labor Earnings On Commute Time To Work In South Carolina, Peter Trela

All Theses

In this paper, I attempt to ascertain the effect of labor earnings on commute time to work for individuals in South Carolina by using ACS 1-year Public Use Microdata Sample Estimates. First, I use standard linear regression models with controls to determine the direction and magnitude of the association between yearly labor earnings and commute time to work. I later use standard linear regression models with limited controls to determine how the association between yearly labor earnings and commute time changes before and during the events of the COVID-19 pandemic. There exists a positive relationship between yearly labor earnings and …

No More Empty Stadiums: A Meta Analysis Of Mega Sporting Events And Their Economic Impact, Tayte O. Gleason

Honors Thesis

Mega sporting events have faced increased scrutiny in recent decades for their negative economic impacts, externalities, and environmental effects. As multimillion dollar stadiums lay abandoned and future host city bids are withdrawn as public opinion on mega sporting events worsens with time, economists, governing bodies, and sports fans worry about the future locations of these massive sports festivals. In my thesis, I will conduct a meta analysis of articles measuring the various impacts and effects of hosting a mega sporting event. I will begin by performing an extensive literature review of the various factors contributing to a mega sporting event’s …

Social Reproduction And Covid-19, Caroline I. Donovan

Dartmouth College Master’s Theses

As Covid-19 rips across the world we are collectively asked to examine the structures of society to see what is working and what we can change. What can we learn from the roughly 6.9 million deaths (and counting) worldwide? How can we prevent something like this from happening again? This paper follows the course of Covid-19 from its birth in Wuhan, China, to the present day of mid-April 2023. By looking at the ways in which we have reacted to the pandemic, we are able to look forward and imagine new ways of tackling future pandemics and other pressing problems …

Economic Forecasting In A Pandemic: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Keen Meng Choy

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper aims to investigate whether the predictive performance and behaviour of professional forecasters are different during the COVID-19 pandemic as compared with the global financial crisis of 2008 and normal times. To this end, we use a survey of professional forecasters in Singapore collated by the central bank to analyse the forecasting records for GDP growth and CPI inflation for the period 2000Q1–2021Q4. We first examine the point forecasts to document the extent of forecast failure duringthe two crises and explore various explanations for it, such as leader-following and herding behaviour. Then, using percentile-based summary measures of probability distribution …

Teaching In The Right Context: Textbook Supply Program, Language, And Vocabulary Ability In Vietnam, Tomoki Fujii, Maki Nakajima, Sijia Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

An ethnic gap in education is prevalent around the world. This remains the case in Vietnam, a country that has achieved phenomenal economic growth and raised the educational attainment of the public. This paper examines the impact of language policy reorientation represented by the textbook supply program in Vietnam on the ethnic gap in children's learning measured by a vocabulary test. Applying difference-in-differences estimation to the Young Lives data between 2006 and 2015, we show that the program became more effective in narrowing the ethnic gap as the education policy became reoriented toward ethnic minority children. A causal mediation analysis …

Essays On The Economics Of Sports Wagering Markets, Jacob Lamb

All Dissertations

Economists have long been enamored with using wagering markets and sports data to answer various economic questions. Wagering market data are readily available to answer any number of questions relating to sports and economics. However, most studies surrounding wagering markets have focused on searching for inefficiencies and, consequently, profitable betting strategies against the house. This dissertation takes a different approach, focusing on the information that can be extracted from efficient wagering markets and using that information to answer economic questions. Rather than hunting for inefficiencies, this dissertation confirms the efficiency of wagering markets and uses wagering markets to answer questions …

Essays On Manufacturing And Growth, Hugo Vaca Pereira Rocha

All Dissertations

The first chapter of this dissertation studies the role of human capital in generating economic convergence through its impact on manufacturing productivity growth and allocation of labor across sectors of the economy. I confirm and extend existing results showing that productivity in manufacturing – unlike its economy-wide counterpart – has exhibited convergence; that is, countries further behind the technology frontier tend to catch up to those on the frontier. I then show that the convergence in manufacturing is (a) somewhat accelerated by countries’ tertiary education levels and (b) faster in high-tech industries. Perhaps surprisingly, this is not driven by tertiary …

Two Essays In Human Capital, Illia Polovnikov

All Dissertations

This dissertation is comprised of two essays on human capital. I analyze how early-life human capital boost shapes micro-level outcomes among disadvantaged children in the US. In the second chapter, I study the productivity convergence among OECD countries and evaluate to what extent the labor force’s sectoral allocation (due to different human capital profiles across countries) contributes to it. In the first chapter, which is joint work with Jorge Garc´ia and William Dougan, we analyze a large-scale trial of an early-childhood education program targeting premature, low-birthweight children, thereby oversampling twins. We find that failing to account for this oversampling obscures …

Interaction Between Monetary And Fiscal Policies: Evidence From Egypt, Mouchera Karara, Mona Fayed, Heidi Aly

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

Surviving the COVID-19 crisis would not have been possible without the unprecedented support measures implemented worldwide. Monetary and fiscal policy tools had to be used aggressively and innovatively to withstand the adverse impact of the crisis in 2020. In order to effectively design policy interventions to achieve the desired targets while accounting for potential trade-offs, an understanding of the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies becomes a prerequisite. The changing global and local economic conditions call for rigorous and continuous research on the topic to guide policy makers in navigating through the critical times ahead of the Egyptian economy and …

The Impacts Of Cumulative Tariff Rates On Global Value Chains, Halit Yanıkkaya, Pınar Tat, Abdullah Altun

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

This study analyzes the impacts of tariffs on global value chain participation by employing value-added trade statistics and the idea of cumulative tariff rates for 12 sectors from 168 countries over the years 1990 to 2015. The main finding is that both market access and input tariff rates have significant negative impacts on sectoral global value chain participation. The effect is persistent in the analysis we employ cumulative tariff rates. Apart from these policy determinants, sector and country-level endowments such as higher relative length, capital intensity, FDI stock, and education level appear as major drivers for higher total, forward, and …

U.S. Implementation Of Total Loss Absorbing Capacity And Long Term Debt Standards, Sarabeth Mcclain

Senior Honors Projects

In the fallout of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, governments were tasked in aiding banks that were bloated by troubled assets and deeply integrated into financial markets, effectively described as “Too Big To Fail.” Moving forward following the crisis, governments were obligated to rebuild a system that would prevent the need for financial industry bailouts at such a massive scale and scope. One specific regulation introduced at the international level posed a set of regulations requiring that banks hold specific amounts of equity and debt instruments earmarked to absorb future financial losses, allowing for either continued function or limited resolution …

The Impact Of Local Broadband Access On High School Graduation Rates, Eugen Brazdil

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The United States government has been funding infrastructure expansions and upgrades to bring Internet access to schools and households. While this broadband funding has increased access and adoption, it is unclear how improvements in Internet access affect student performance because Internet access has both productivity and distraction effects. The Internet provides students with access to vast amounts of educational content, instructional videos and other valuable resources that increase productivity. It also provides students access to social media, video games and other forms of entertainment that distract students and reduce student performance. While the literature shows that advances in technology (computers) …

Rethinking Asia-Pacific Regionalism And New Economic Agreements, Julien Chaisse, Pasha L. Hsieh

Research Collection Yong Pung How School Of Law

The neoliberal international order is facing a variety of pressing obstacles. One of the most contentious issues is the emergence of new Asian regionalism, which has been driven by the rising economic power of the region and integration based on the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Plus Six framework. The legalization of the ASEAN way has propelled the New Regional Economic Order (NREO), which reinforces a trade-development nexus alternative to the Washington Consensus and will have far-reaching normative, economic, and geopolitical effects on the world. Given the proliferation of trade and investment initiatives including the ASEAN Economic Community and …

Two Essays On Industry Tournament Incentives, Sarah Almisher

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

A large body of literature has developed on the disparities in compensation among chief executive officers. Financial media has highlighted the fact that CEOs in the United States receive excessive pay and that the gap among executive compensation is soaring. High compensation creates incentives for CEOs to take higher risk in firm policies to land a more attractive position managing another firm and attaining higher pay which is considered the ultimate prize (Kale, Reis, and Venkateswaran 2009; Coles, Daniel, and Naveen 2006). This creates a tournament in the managerial labor market. We define this tournament as the pay differential between …

Livestock Risk Protection: An Analysis Of Coverage Length And Level To Determine Optimal Contract Selection, Logan B. Haviland

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

We evaluate the historically optimal producer-selected coverage options comprised of coverage length and level for each marketing month for various types of livestock insured with Livestock Risk Protection insurance. We begin with feeder cattle steers (600-900lbs) and then analyze the other types of feeder cattle, followed by fed cattle and swine. The optimal contracts are identified as those that have historically provided the highest probability of a positive net return and the highest average net return. We find that regardless of marketing month, the optimal contracts consist of relatively high coverage levels whereas the optimal length of the contracts varies …

On The Spectral Density Of Fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process: Approximation, Estimation, And Model Comparison, Shuping Shi, Jun Yu, Chen Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces a novel method for accurately approximating the spectral density of the discretely-sampled fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (fOU) process. We utilize this approximated spec-tral density to develop an estimation method called the approximated Whittle maximum likelihood method (AWML) for fOU. Additionally, we develop a likelihood-ratio (LR) test using the approxi-mated spectral densities to distinguish between the fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and fOU pro-cesses, two popular models in the volatility literature. Simulation studies demonstrate that the AWML method improves the estimation speed and accuracy compared to existing ones and that the LR test is effective in distinguishing between the two processes …

Inflation Dynamics And Expectations In Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Inflation dynamics in Singapore have primarily been shaped by foreign factors, including global inflationary pressures and external macroeconomic shocks. More recently, the normalisation phase of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis has led to domestic price pressures from pent-up demand and supply-chain disruptions. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine has resulted in a hike in the global prices of food, energy, and industrial commodities. Using inflation forecasts from the MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters as our measure of inflation expectations, we show that short-term inflation expectations have shifted up recently. Moreover, greater disagreement amongst survey respondents in the more recent surveys suggests individual …

Competing Auctions With Non-Identical Objects, Massimiliano Landi, Domenico Menicucci, Andrey Sarychev

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study a competition model with two sellers that auction non-identical objects, unlike most of the literature on competing auctions. Each bidder has bidimensional private information, his values for the objects, and chooses the auction in which he participates (if any) after each seller has set a reserve price for her auction. We show that in some cases the duopoly reserve price is greater than the reserve price for a monopolist auctioning a single object; thus, an increase in the number of sellers may make some bidder’s types worse off. In our analysis we first characterize the unique symmetric equilibrium …