Economics Commons^™

The Global Trade Analysis Project (Gtap) Data Base: Version 11, Angel Aguiar, Maksym Chepeliev, Erwin Corong, Dominique Van Der Mensbrugghe

Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty Publications

This paper describes the construction of the GTAP Data Base, version 11. The database reconciles different data sources at a global scale for analytical use and provides time series data on value flows, volumes, and various tax instruments. GTAP version 11 has 5 reference years (2004, 2007, 2011, 2014, and 2017), distinguishes 65 sectors in each of 141 countries and 19 aggregate regions - with individual countries accounting for 99.1% of world GDP and 96.4% of world population. The exhaustive nature of GTAP in its country and sector coverage facilitates its use in economy-wide studies of global economic issues.

Dynamic Micropolitans In The Mountain West, 2015-2021, Annie Vong, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Cities & Metros

This fact sheet examines data exploring micropolitan ranking, gross domestic product (GDP) growth, employment growth, and average annual pay growth for micropolitan areas in the Mountain West. The original report includes economic growth data on 536 micropolitan areas across the United States from 2015 to 2021.

Failed Secular Revolutions: Religious Belief, Competition, And Extremism, Jean-Paul Carvalho, Jared Rubin, Michael Sacks

ESI Working Papers

All advanced economies have undergone secular revolutions in which religious belief and institutions have been subordinated to secular forms of authority. There are, however, numerous examples of failed secular transitions. To understand these failures, we present a religious club model with endogenous entry and cultural transmission of religious beliefs. A spike in the demand for religious belief, due for example to a negative economic shock, induces a new and more extreme organization to enter the religious market and exploit the dissatisfaction of highly religious types with the religious incumbent. The eect is larger where institutional secularization is more advanced, for …

Corruption: A Review Of Issues, Sandra Damijan

Economic and Business Review

This paper provides a historical overview of the concept of corruption, the existing models for studying it, and the main costs that corruption imposes on the economy and society at large. Corruption was first understood as a disturbance of the balance of state power, and later as the immorality of political patronage and favouritism of certain groups. It evolved from the public sphere to the intertwining of the public and private spheres, from a political issue to the intertwining of political and economic issues. The fight against corruption evolved from the maintenance of necessary checks and balances, from moral struggles …

The U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (Ioos): A Prototype User Valuation, Charles S. Colgan, Castelletto Anthony

Publications

The Integrated Ocean Observing System of the United States provides a large variety of oceanographic and related data at no charge through 11 Regional Associations. Since the data is distributed without price it is difficult to determine the economic value of the data. That value is useful in explaining and justifying the investment in ocean observing. This study applies discrete choice modeling to determine valuation of the data for users of data through the RA websites. The study found annual values of $190 to $220 million, and these estimates are considered highly conservative. A guide for replication of the valuation …

Concerns Over The Cost Of Living Among Older Adults In Singapore, Rachel Ngu, Micah Tan, Paulin T. Straughan, Seonghoon Kim, William Tov, Grace Cheong, Xiaoyan Zhang

ROSA Research Briefs

A post-National Day Rally survey conducted in August 2022 found that the rising cost of living and health-related issues were ranked among the top concerns of Singaporeans (Baharudin, 2022). This comes as no surprise as global crises such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, has resulted in global and domestic inflation (Gov.sg, 2022). In May 2022, Singapore reported a 13-year high core inflation of 3.6% (Channel News Asia, 2022), while in September 2022, Singapore’s core inflation had risen to 5.3% (Ang, 2022). Additionally, the government announced that Singapore residents will see a goods and services tax (GST) …

Hedging Cryptos With Bitcoin Futures, Francis Liu, Natalie Packham, Meng-Jou Lu, Wolfgang Karl Haerdle

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The introduction of derivatives on Bitcoin enables investors to hedge risk exposures in cryptocurrencies. Because of volatility swings and jumps in cryptocurrency prices, the traditional variance-based approach to obtain hedge ratios may not be suitable for hedgers. In this work, we consider two extensions of the traditional approach: first, different dependence structures are modelled by different copulae, such as the Gaussian, Student-t, Normal Inverse Gaussian and Archimedean copulae; second, different risk measures, such as value-at-risk, expected shortfall and spectral risk measures are employed to find the optimal hedge ratio. Extensive out-of-sample tests using the data from the time …

The Power Of Music – An Economic Analysis Of Oregon’S Emerging Commercial Music Industry, Jenny H. Liu, Steve Marlotta, Emma Brophy, Rohan Khanvilkar, Hyeoncheol Kim

Northwest Economic Research Center Publications and Reports

Oregon has a vibrant creative presence, producing a diverse array of artists known on the national scale, in addition to independent artists mostly familiar on the local scene. The state is also home to many annual music festivals and live performance events that attract large numbers of attendees, while also playing host to music businesses big and small spanning sound recording studios, mastering engineers, composers, tuners, digital streaming services, graphic designers and music educators. All of these components of the Oregon commercial music industry economically impact their communities by providing entertainment and increasing profits for performance venues, distributing wages, and …

Developing And Implementing A Sustainable, Integrated Weed Management Program For Herbicide-Resistant Poa Annua In Turfgrass, James D. Mccurdy, Rebecca G. Bowling, Edicarlos De Castro, Alec R. Kowalewski, Clint M. Maddox, James T. Brosnan, Shawn W. Askew, Clebson G. Goncalves, David Ervin, Multiple Additional Authors

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

The ability of Poa annua L. to adapt to most turfgrass environments extends to its ability to develop resistance to commonly used herbicides. Herbicide resistant P. annua is of almost epidemic proportions. The loss of once viable chemical-based treatments pushes practitioners towards more expensive, and often less effective, control strategies. This management guide focuses on integrated weed management (IWM) practices for P. annua control and herbicide resistance—what it is and how to overcome it. Also discussed are resistance mechanisms and documentation of common occurrences of field-level resistance within much of the United States. Finally, a summary of some of the …

Big Data Analytics, Al And Machine Learning For Central Banks: What It Portends For Emerging Economies In Africa, Leticia Kingsley-Nsirim Dr.

Bullion

In order to evaluate the status of the economy, policymakers and the private sector have relied on Statistics produced by official statistical institutes for decades. These data must be gathered with great effort, and publishing frequently takes months or years to complete. However, both the amount of data that is readily available and the tools and software used to analyse it have grown dramatically over the past few years. These changes have increased interest in big data and machine learning among central banks. The application of big data and machine learning in central banking is examined in this study. The …

Modeling And Forecasting Inflation Rate In Nigeria: A Comparison Of Regression With Arima Errors And Arima Method, Barthelomew I. Ugwuanyi

Bullion

The paper aimed to determine the most appropriate method for forecasting inflation rate in Nigeria between Regression with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) errors and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. This study uses annual data for the period 1990-2021 from World Bank. One response variable and three predictor variables are adopted. The best ARIMA method was selected from the competing ARIMA methods using Akaike Information Criterion Corrected (AICC), while the root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) are used to select the best forecast method between the two methods of interest. The result of this …

Rethinking The "Phillips Curve" In Nigeria: Assessing The Unemployment-Inflation Nexus In A Non-Linear Framework, Oba Efayema Obukohwo, Hilda Enoh Olele

Bullion

The need to boost economic growth through policies that will simultaneously enhance employment and price stability cannot be overemphasized for a developing economy like Nigeria. This study thus seeks to ascertain the nexus between unemployment and inflation in Nigeria utilizing unemployment, and other control variables between 1980 and 2020 within a nonlinear framework, the study invalidated the inverse relationship. The study thus proposed that government should formulate and implement policies that will stimulate growth through an unemployment-inflation decelerating trajectory.

Pakistan's Economy Under Musharraf, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

Economic achievements during President Musharraf's regime are often dismissed outright due to abhorrence of military rule, the imposition of emergency in 2007, Pakistan's involvement in the Afghanistan war, open tussle with the judiciary, and the quest to get elected in uniform. This article is an attempt to provide a first-hand, data-driven account of the economic record of the period 2000-2008, covering macroeconomic stabilization through IMF arrangements, debt re-profiling through Paris Club, aggressive privatization yielding $3 billion, financial sector reforms, fiscal consolidation, and trade liberalization that resulted in GDP growth of approximately 6.3 percent per year, poverty headcount falling from 34 …

Real Estate Assets: To Build Or Not To Build?, Chaik Ming Koh

Asian Management Insights

It’s about when, not whether.

Assessment Of Fuel Prices As Determinants Of Inflation In Nigeria: A Vecm Approach, Adekunle B. Alexander Dr., Pelumi A. Abdulmalik

Bullion

This study examines the effect of petroleum price on the direction of inflation in Nigeria - whether or not movement in prices of other goods and services responds to increase in pump price of premium motor spirit (PMS) otherwise known as petrol in Nigeria. The study employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger causality tests to estimate the long-run relationship between petro! price and inflation as well as direction of causality for the 1991- 2021 period. Data for the study were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and World Bank data indicators covering inflation, pump-price of …

Poverty And Poverty Alleviation Policies In The North Central Zone Of Nigeria, Gloria Ese Olotu Dr

Bullion

The paper examined poverty situation in the north central and the poverty alleviation policies of government as they affect the people of the north central zone in particular and Nigeria generally. This study was carried out in the face of the fact that poverty has characterized the Nigerian society such that over 70% of her citizens live below poverty line predicated by hunger, unemployment, poor housing, poor health care and other deprivations in spite of numerous government policies and programs aimed at alleviating or eradicating poverty in Nigeria since independence. Data for the study were generated through both the primary …

Robowealth: Boosting Financial Inclusion In Thailand, Chiraphol N. Chiyachantana, David K. Ding, Pattarawan Mai Prasarnphanich, Chi Wei Chan

Asian Management Insights

Advanced fintech lowers barriers to investing.

最低工資有幾低? 貧窮新一代的就業困境報告, 嶺南大學政策研究院, 嶺南大學文化研究及發展中心, 嶺南大學「青年貧窮與就業」研究團隊, Man Kit Chui, Haocheng Yang, Nga Man Wong, Peier Chen, Xinmiao Song, Shi Chi Leung, Ngai Pun

CCRD Research Report

為了解香港青年對就業、貧窮、體面生活、相關政策的看法，以及他們收入和支出的情況，嶺南大學政策研究院、文化研究及發展中心聯合進行一項題為《最低工資有幾低？貧窮新一代的就業困境報告》的調查。結果發現，四成接受深度訪談的青年自認貧窮，而絕大部分已有全職工作的受訪青年認為，最低工資調整幅度太低，自己未能受惠。

嶺大研究團隊從2022年5月至12月，先後透過兩輪深度訪談，訪問了67位18至29歲、收入低於2萬元、有工作經驗的青年。另外，團隊亦透過兩輪問卷調查，分別收集到164份及253份有效回覆。

調查結果發現，絕大部分年輕人覺得自己的工資太低，待遇與工作不相稱。受訪青年的收入來源包括全職工作、兼職工作。深度訪談年輕人的收入中位數為15,200元，而問卷調查的收入中位數結果則是6,000至9,999元。一方面，大部分有全職工作的青年認為自己工時長、部分行業長期低薪，比不上任職其他行業的同輩，而覺得不滿。壓力同時來自高昂的生活成本和遙不可及的人生目標，包括置業。

大約四成接受第二輪深度訪談的青年自認是貧窮，他們對於貧窮有多元化的理解。有青年認為三餐不繼才算得上貧窮，有些人覺得人工未達到港人月入中位數就算是貧窮，亦有人認很多目標未能達成，導致「精神貧窮」。其餘自覺不貧窮的青年部分歸因於家庭支援，可以滿足基本需求以外的消費，例如購物和旅遊。

絕大部分已有全職工作的受訪青年覺得最低工資調整幅度太低，自己未能受惠。無論認為自己屬於中產或基層的受訪者，均有共識，認為即使法定最低工資水平提升至40元依然是太低，與市場脫節，調整幅度不合理。不少人往往將最低工資時薪和「一餐飯」的開支掛鉤，認為最低工資水平要吃得起「一餐飯」才合理。受訪者認為最低工資如有合理升幅及政策檢討，對基層家庭及兼職工作者有很大幫助。

問卷調查結果推算，受訪青年要滿足現時的生活開支水平，時薪應該要達到71.6元。問卷調查的結果顯示青年的個人月均生活支出為16,789元，扣除教育開支，平均每月支出約14,894元，按一個月工作26日，每日8小時計算出時薪水平為71.6元，與目前最低工資水平相距很遠。

研究團隊建議，政府應從多方面著手解決此迫切的社會問題。首先，當局應檢討最低工資政策的定位，使它與其他扶貧政策互相配合，以保障不同需要的群體；第二，當局應透明化最低工資的調整過程，改為「一年一檢」；第三，團隊建議重啟標準工時立法程序，訂明標準工時應為每周40小時，加班工資應為正常工資的1.5倍，每月亦應設有加班和總工時上限，並以此為基礎制定「過勞死」的法律定義，把過勞死定為僱主須按《僱員補償條例》（第282章）作出補償的事故。最後，團隊建議政府主動開展設立失業保障制度的工作，包括探討供款式失業保險、檢討現行失業綜援、遣散費／長期服務金，並重視年輕人對相關政策的意見。

Conflict Of Laws? Tensions Between Antitrust And Labor Law, Matthew Dimick

Journal Articles

Not long ago, economists denied the existence of monopsony in labor markets. Today, scholars are talking about using antitrust law to counter employer wage-setting power. While concerns about inequality, stagnant wages, and excessive firm power are certainly to be welcomed, this sudden about-face in theory, evidence, and policy runs the risk of overlooking some important concerns. The purpose of this Essay is to address these concerns and, more critically, to discuss some tensions between antitrust and labor law, a more traditional method for regulating labor markets. Part I addresses a question raised in the very recent literature, about why antitrust …

Research Diversity And Invention, John T. Scott

Dartmouth Scholarship

This paper explains that when there is great uncertainty about which elements of knowledge must be combined to make an invention, the likelihood of invention increases markedly—by many orders of magnitude—when there are numerous diverse research organizations, rather than just a few. The paper examines the possibility that competition (antitrust) policy toward mergers would be improved if enforcement efforts placed more emphasis on protecting the diversity that is provided by numerous research rivals in a market.

Politics And Eminent Domain: Evidence From The 1879 California Constitution, Mark T. Kanazawa

Department of Economics Working Paper Series

This paper explores the politics of eminent domain, using a specific historical episode: the enactment of the new California constitution in 1879. It presents evidence that the failure of a constitutional provision that would have codified eminent domain powers for water development resulted from a complex interchange of economic interests among farmers, miners, and urban residents. This evidence was manifested in delegate behavior on the floor of the constitutional convention in 1878, including various roll-call votes, which are subjected to an econometric analysis. The results have implications for the interpretation of legislative eminent domain decisions, and the degree to which …

Incorporating Sales And Arrivals Information In Demand Estimation, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a demand estimation method that allows for a large number of zero sale observations, rich unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous prices. We do so by modeling small market sizes through Poisson arrivals. Each of these arriving con-sumers solves a standard discrete choice problem. We present a Bayesian IV estima-tion approach that addresses sampling error in product shares and scales well to rich data environments. The data requirements are traditional market-level data as well as a measure of market sizes or consumer arrivals. After presenting simulation studies, we demonstrate the method in an empirical application of air travel demand.

How Gender And Primary Language Influence The Acquisition Of Economic Knowledge Of Secondary School Students In The United States And Germany, Roland Happ, Susanne Schmidt, Olga Zlatkin-Troitschanskaia, William Walstad

Department of Economics: Faculty Publications

Economics has become an essential component of secondary school curricula in many countries as a result of the growing awareness that young adults need fundamental economic knowledge to manage their personal finances. Accordingly, an increasing number of comparative studies are being conducted of commonalities and differences in students’ economic knowledge and its most decisive influencing factors within and across countries. In this study, we compare the performance of secondary school students in the United States (N = 3517) and Germany (N = 983) on the fourth version of the Test of Economic Literacy. We investigate two personal characteristics that have …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 3, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

The Role Of Gender Inequality And Health Expenditure On The Coverage Of Demand For Family Planning Satisfied By Modern Contraceptives: A Multilevel Analysis Of Cross-Sectional Studies In 14 Lac Countries, Laísa Rodrigues Moreira, Cauane Blumenberg, Beatriz Elena Caicedo Velasquez, Fernanda Ewerling, Alejandra Balandrán, Luis Paulo Vidaletti, Andrea Ramirez Varela, Franciele Hellwig, Rodolfo Gomez Ponce De Leon, Aluisio J D Barros, Mariangela Freitas Silveira, Fernando C Wehrmeister

Faculty, Staff and Student Publications

BACKGROUND: Despite international efforts to improve reproductive health indicators, little attention is paid to the contributions of contextual factors to modern contraceptive coverage, especially in the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region. This study aimed to identify the association between country-level Gender Inequality and Health Expenditure with demand for family planning satisfied by modern contraceptive methods (DFPSm) in Latin American sexually active women.

METHODS: Our analyses included data from the most recent (post-2010) Demographic and Health Survey or Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey from 14 LAC countries. Descriptive analyses and multilevel logistic regressions were performed. Six individual-level factors were included. …

Horse Sense Or Horse Hype? Estimating The True Economic Impact Of Churchill Downs And The Kentucky Derby On The Louisville Metro Area, Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

In trying to assess the true economic impact of the Kentucky Derby on the Louisville region (north central Kentucky and south central Indiana counties), one can find two different estimates appear in doing a quick search on the internet. Some sources, such as the Kentucky Derby Museum, indicate that the economic impact of the Derby is around $217 million (Kentucky Derby Museum 2023) but never mention a source or study for this conjecture. In doing some research, this amount is determined to come from a 2001 study by the marketing research firm Wilkerson and Associates (LaMarra 2001), and therefore this …

Now You Can Take It With You: Effects Of Occupational Credential Recognition On Labor Market Outcomes, Kihwan Bae, Edward Timmons

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

Occupational credentials are typically not portable across geography. Using policy reforms by U.S. states, we show that the limited portability of occupational licenses constrains labor market activity and geographic mobility of licensed individuals. After states implement universal recognition, a policy that allows individuals with occupational licenses issued by other states to work without repeating a costly relicensing procedure, we find that the employment ratio increases by 0.98 percentage points among licensed individuals in the sample relative to unlicensed individuals. The employment effect is co-driven by additional labor market participation and a reduction in unemployment after the policy. With the employment …

(Wp 2023-01) Objectivity In Economics And The Problem Of The Individual, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper addresses objectivity in economics. It criticizes a closed science, ‘view from nowhere’ conception of economics and defends an open science, ‘view from somewhere’ conception of objective science. It ascribes the first conception to mainstream economics, associates it with its principle practices – reductionist modeling, formalization, limited interdisciplinarity, and value neutrality – and argues their foundation is the Homo economicus individual conception. Two problematic consequences of adopting this stance are: (i) value blindness regarding the range and complexity of human values; (ii) fatalism regarding human behavior associated with employing a tenseless representation of time. The paper contrasts the principle …

Montana Travel Regions & Counties - Economic Contribution Of 2019/2021 Averaged Nonresident Travel Spending, Kara Grau

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

Money spent by those traveling in Montana has a direct effect on businesses where spending occurs, and it ripples throughout the state's economy from there. Statewide, spending by nonresident visitors (averaged over two years - 2019 and 2021) totaled $4.48 billion. This report details the methods and results of the economic impact analyses for each of Montana's six travel regions, as well as analyses for counties in which nonresident travelers spent approximately $50 million or more.

Exchange-Traded Funds And Real Investment, Constantinos Antoniou, Frank Weikai Li, Xuewen Liu, Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, Chengzhu Sun

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We investigate the link between exchange-traded funds and real investment. Cross-sectionally, higher ETF ownership is associated with an increased sensitivity of real investment to Tobin's q and a heightened ability of stock returns to forecast future earnings. Inclusion of stocks in industry ETFs enhances investment-q sensitivity and implies greater incorporation of earnings information into prices prior to public releases. Greater nonmarket ETF ownership leads to increased (reduced) reliance of real investment on own (peers') stock prices. Overall, the evidence is consistent with ETFs positively affecting real investment efficiency via greater flows of information.