Economics Commons^™

A Black-Scholes User's Guide To The Bachelier Model, Jaehyuk Choi, Minsuk Kwak, Chyng Wen Tee, Yumeng Wang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

To cope with the negative oil futures price caused by the COVID-19 recession, global commodity futures exchanges switched the option model from Black-Scholes to Bachelier in April 2020. This study reviews the literature on Bachelier's pioneering option pricing model and summarizes the practical results on volatility conversion, risk management, stochastic volatility, and barrier options pricing to facilitate the model transition. In particular, using the displaced Black-Scholes model as a model family with the Black-Scholes and Bachelier models as special cases, we not only connect the two models but also present a continuous spectrum of model choices.

Predicting Gross Metropolitan Product Worldwide Using Statistical Learning Models, Socio-Economic, And Satellite Imagery Data, Simin Joshaghani

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

Gross metropolitan product (GMP) is one the most critical indicators for determining a metropolitan area’s economic performance. While GMP data currently exists for major cities in the US and OECD countries, the rest of the world is a blind spot. This study aims at estimating the GMP of 1289 cities in non-US and OECD countries, where no official city-level statistics are produced. We perform this estimation through multiple machine learning models, using night-time lights satellite imagery, and other publicly available data. We analyze eight spatial databases and four cross-sectional datasets and derive a feature vector of covariates through various techniques, …

The Gambler's Edge - A Theoretical Framework To Trading Securities, Matthew Haines

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Like gamblers, retail investors seeking excess returns in financial markets are prone to miscalculation and their models are often misspeciffied. Forecasting asset prices is extremely difficult in the long run and nearly infeasible in the short run. Additionally, retail investors are likely to be at a disadvantage both technologically and informationally—rarely will they be ahead of the curve. With these disadvantages and the difficulty of predicting future outcomes, retail investors may come to view prices as unpredictable and random in nature, like a roll of the dice. This theoretical research explores a possible investing methodology (derived from gambling principles) should …

Changes In Voting Behavior Along Partisan Lines Due To Extreme Weather Events Linked To Climate Change, Daniel Brinkerhoff

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

This paper investigates the relationship between extreme weather events linked to climate change and partisan voting behavior. Looking at House of Representative and Senate elections in the US between 2000-2018 and comparing them to extreme damages from droughts, flooding, tropical cyclones, and fire. Ultimately, we do not find a stable relationship between weather damages and partisan voting behavior.

Implicit Cost Of Retaliatory Tariffs By Mexico On U.S. Cheese Export, Pengyan Sun

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Mexico imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. cheeses ranging from 20 to 25 percent in July 2018. In order to provide valuable information for the government and farmers, my research estimated the implicit cost of retaliatory tariffs by Mexico on U.S. cheese exports. In particular, I estimate the difference between the forecasted value of cheese exported to Mexico and the actual value of cheese exported to Mexico using four different models. The total impact to the U.S. economy from the losses due to retaliatory tariffs was assessed by IMPLAN, an input/output model. The results showed that Mexican tariffs decreased U.S. industry …

Regional Economic Contribution Of Crop Insurance Indemnity Payment In The U.S., Hwangwon Lee

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

The Federal Crop Insurance Program (FCIP) has played a pivotal role in agricultural businesses and communities. The FCIP allows farmers to purchase farm and farm-related products and services, maintain heavy agricultural machinery, and utilize farm agency services for preparing for farming in the following agricultural years. In addition, the indemnities enable farmers to repay debts, alleviate farm collapses, and keep farm industries purchasing agricultural-related products and the necessary goods for everyday living, stabilizing the local and farming economies (Lubben & Thompson, 2013).

This study investigates the economic contribution of crop indemnity payments using a methodology that will capture the total …

Variation And Efficiency Of High-Frequency Betas, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, George Tauchen

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the efficient estimation of betas from high-frequency return data on a fixed time interval. Under an assumption of equal diffusive and jump betas, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for estimating the common beta and develop an adaptive estimator that attains the efficiency bound. We further propose a Hausman type test for deciding whether the common beta assumption is true from the high-frequency data. In our empirical analysis we provide examples of stocks and time periods for which a common market beta assumption appears true and ones for which this is not the case. We further quantify …

Probabilistic Fixed Ballot Rules And Hybrid Domains, Shurojit Chatterji, Souvik Roy, Soumyarup Sadhukhan, Arunava Sen, Huaxia Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study a class of preference domains that satisfies the familiar properties of minimal richness, diversity and no-restoration. We show that a specific preference restriction, hybridness, has been embedded in these domains so that the preferences are single-peaked at the “extremes” and unrestricted in the “middle”. We also study the structure of strategy-proof and unanimous Random Social Choice Functions on these domains. We show them to be special cases of probabilistic fixed ballot rules (introduced by Ehlers, Peters, and Storcken (2002)).

Labor Market Institutions And The Incidence Of Payroll Taxation, Jinyoung Kim, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Despite the unambiguous predictions of the canonical model of a competitive labor market, empirical studies of the labor market effects of payroll taxation provide conflicting evidence. We estimate the labor market impacts of payroll taxation in Singapore, the country with the most competitive and flexible labor market among the countries investigated in the literature. By exploiting the sharp reduction in payroll tax rate when workers turn 60, we find that the reduced payroll tax rate in Singapore has a large effect on wages without changes in employment. Our meta-analysis shows consistent evidence that varying degrees of labor market competitiveness across …

Inflation And Ukraine War Make It Challenging For Our Beloved Value Stores To Survive, Aurobindo Ghosh, Taimur Baig

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In a joint commentary, SMU Assistant Professor of Finance (Education) and Principal Investigator of DBS-SKBI Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations Project Aurobindo Ghosh and Chief Economist and Managing Director at DBS Bank Dr Taimur Baig discussed how global inflationary pressures and rising commodity prices due to war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are culminating into a perfect storm and making it challenging for value stores to survive. They also gave advice on what value stores can do to survive this perfect storm.

Economic Experiments On Group Identity And Bias, Nathaniel Christopher Burke

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Experiments in economics have been a valuable tool to understand the behavioral implications of incentives on the decision-making process. Particularly, aspects of decision making that cannot be observed in empirical data can be better isolated in an experimental setting such as bias and identity impacts. This dissertation uses three distinct experiments to further the understanding of individual biases, perceptions, and identity and how they impact the way people defer to these internal traits under incentives. This dissertation looks at how well individuals can make inferences about polling data that was collected from individuals susceptible to socially desirable responding. It also …

How Do Virtual Social Media Influencers Affect Millennial And Gen Z Female Consumers’ Purchase Intention? A Comparison Of Fast Fashion Versus Luxury Fashion Brands, Lauren Bouvier

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

With the emergence and increasing prevalence of social media, the effectiveness of social media influencers (SMIs) is apparent in today’s fast-paced life. Virtual social media influencers (VSMIs), computer-generated influencers with a real human appearance, have gained popularity. The purpose of this study is to examine important VSMI’s characteristics that affect brand image and trust which lead to purchase intention (fast fashion vs. luxury fashion brand). Social exchange theory and source credibility model were adopted to develop a theoretical framework for the present study. Two Instagram ads were developed that included the post’s image and corresponding caption: VSMI endorsing H&M and …

Hyper-Peripheral Regional Evolution: The ‘Long-Histories' Of The Pilbara And Buryatia, Tom Barratt, Anton Klarin

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

In this article, we outline how evolutionary economic geography (EEG) explains peripheral economic development by comparing two peripheries over extended time periods. This comparison involves critically appraising EEG’s capacity to account for peripheral evolution. For geographical, historical, and political reasons, peripheries lack resources that lead to path creation and renewal. The hyper-peripheral regions of the Pilbara in north-west Australia and of Buryatia in south-east Russia provide excellent comparative case studies for understanding how peripheral regional development evolves in ways contingent upon time, state institutions, natural resource endowments, and region/firm dynamics. Our analysis shows that EEG is well equipped to deal …

Effect Of Brushing Time With A Whitening Dentifrice On Surface Roughness Of Anterior Composite Resins, Ahmet Hazar, Sinem Akgül, Sibel Koçak, Mustafa Murat Koçak

Journal of Dentistry Indonesia

Objectives: This study aimed to compare the surface roughness of three anterior composite resins with different filler size, rate, and shape after brushing for 5000, 10000, and 20000 cycles with a whitening dentifrice. Methods: 44 disk-shaped specimens of each material (5mm diameter, 2mm depth) G-aenial Anterior, Harmonize, Asteria were prepared and divided into four groups according to the brushing cycles (Initial, 5000, 10000, and 20000 cycles). Initial surface roughness values (Ra-values) were assessed using a profilometer and measurements were repeated after each brushing cycle. 4 specimens from each composite resin were observed by scanning electron microscopy before and after brushing. …

Evaluation Of The Effect Of Two Polishing Techniques And Thermocycling Process On Surface Roughness, Hardness, And Color Stability Of Composites, Muhammet Fidan, Zeynep Dereli

Journal of Dentistry Indonesia

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of two polishing techniques and 10.000 thermocycles on the color stability, surface roughness, and hardness of two nanohybrid (Tetric N-Ceram, Escom100) and one bulkfill (Filtek) resin composites. Methods: A total of 60 specimens were prepared using three resin composites and 20 discs from each composite. Specimens for each composite were randomly divided into two different polishing groups (Optrapol rubber and Sof-Lex discs) (n=10). Surface roughness (Ra, μm), microhardness (VHN), and color change (ΔE00) values were measured pre- and post-thermocycling. Two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to evaluate …

A Comparison Of Four Different Methods Of Prediction Of Mesiodistal Widths Of Unerupted Permanent Canines And Premolars, Waqar Jeelani, Washma Asad, Maheen Ahmed

Journal of Dentistry Indonesia

The success of orthodontic treatment depends upon the accurate assessment of mesiodistal widths of unerupted canines and premolars in mixed dentition stage. There are several methods available for mixed dentition analysis with dubious reliability in our population. Objective: To statistically develop new prediction equations for Pakistani subjects to predict the widths of unerupted upper canines and premolars (U345) and lower canine and premolars (L345) using mesiodistal widths of lower incisors (I1I2) and lower incisors and first molars (I1I2M1) and compare their performance with previously established methods of Moyers and Tanaka-Johnston. Methods: Study was conducted using the data from the dental …

Endodontic Management Of Mandibular First Molar With Four Roots - A Rare Case Report With Clinical Management Guidelines, Shaikh Shahbaz, Huma Iftekhar, Sharique Alam, Zehra Shavez

Journal of Dentistry Indonesia

Mandibular molar is usually two rooted with one mesial and one distal root. Additional roots are rare which requires accurate diagnosis and a methodical and scrupulous endodontic treatment. Objective: This paper aims to report the endodontic management of an unusual case of a mandibular permanent first molar with four roots (two mesial & two distal) and provide a clinical guideline to detect and manage these variant cases. Case report: A 15-year-old boy reported with a deep carious lesion in the lower left first molar (#36). The apical root contour of #36 on an intraoral periapical radiograph taken in different angulations …

Salivary Iga Depression In Drug-Influenced Gingival Enlargement Among Hypertensive Patients, Muhammad Annurdin Sabarudin, Haslina Taib, Wan Majdiah Wan Mohamad, Siti Lailatul Akmar Zainuddin, Wan Syamimee Wan Ghazali, Ahmad Azhar Misran

Journal of Dentistry Indonesia

Drug-influenced gingival enlargement (DIGE) among hypertensive patients is commonly associated with antihypertensive drugs such as calcium channel blockers (CCBs). Immune response alteration is one of the proposed mechanisms for DIGE. Immunoglobulin A (IgA) in saliva which involves in defense mechanism was shown to be affected in patients with DIGE. Objective: This study aimed to determine the association of salivary IgA level with DIGE. Methods: This cross-sectional study comprised 47 hypertensive patients who had consumed antihypertensive drugs for at least 3 months. Twenty-one (44.7%) males and 26 (55.3%) females had participated in this study. Data was analyzed using SPSS version 26.0. …

Privatizing Retirement: The Case Of The Female Chilean Worker, Teresa A. Renier

CSB and SJU Distinguished Thesis

Chile has been called the “promised land” of Latin America, a First World country, and an economic miracle. Privatizing social security in Chile has often been hailed by economists as the key for their unprecedented economic growth and success within the past few decades—so much so that other countries have adopted similar pension models within their own countries. Somewhere along this path of astonishing economic growth, Chile, like other developed nations, has arrived at a point where it can no longer assume that the typical worker is a man. Yet as the gap continues to decrease between female and male …

Salary Cap Efficiency: A Study Of The Relationship Between A Nfl Quarterback’S Salary And Their Team’S Performance, Prasad Gosavi

Honors Scholar Theses

For years, sports economists have attempted to understand the impact of salary caps in sports leagues, as they can have an impact on a team’s favored personnel approach. In the National Football League (NFL), one of the more important positions is the team’s quarterback, who has the ability to command large contracts. This paper examines the work of past researchers, and attempts to add to the literature by analyzing data from the past ten NFL seasons. I find inconclusive results relating to the relationship between a NFL team’s winning percentage and the amount of salary cap space allocated for their …

Parkersburg Area Economic Outlook: 2022-2026, Connor Kelly, Lauren Moore, Glenn Whited, John Deskins, Brian Lego

Bureau of Business & Economic Research

The Parkersburg Area economy experienced a substantial loss in jobs during COVID-19 recession, as the combination of public health measures and massive negative shock to economic activity globally caused employment in the area to plunge by nearly 8,000 jobs in early-2020. By some measures, the area’s recession was not demonstrably worse than what occurred at the state and national level yet was still unprecedented in terms of how fast these losses happened when compared to previous economic downturns. At the same time, the area has recovered nearly 6,000 jobs over the last six quarters, putting its overall recovery on par …

Money Supply And Inflation After Covid-19, Orkideh Gharehgozli, Sunhyung Lee

Department of Economics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose to 5.2 percent on January 2022, which is the highest rate of increase since 40 years ago. Our estimates show that the annualized quarterly core PCE prices could reach 5.45% in the second quarter of 2022 and are as high as 8.57% in a longer time horizon unless corrected with restrictive monetary policies. Thus, the inflation shock since COVID-19 is not transitory, but it is persistent. As economists expect the Federal Reserve to tighten the money supply in March 2022, the insufficient policy responses may …

Weirton Area Economic Outlook: 2022-2026, Mackenzie Hill, Ben Sbei, Isabelle Dallaire, Brian Lego, John Deskins

Bureau of Business & Economic Research

The Weirton Area1 suffered a sharp drop in employment during the COVID-19 recession, but the region experienced a relatively milder bout of job losses during the early phases of the pandemic compared to many areas.

The Effect Of Crude Oil Prices On Personal Consumption Expenditure, Eileen Cooney

Economics Student Scholarship

Eileen Cooney ’23
Majors: Quantitative Economics and Political Science
Minor: Finance
Faculty Mentor: Dr. Fang Dong, Economics

The author used the time series models to analyze how growth of personal consumption expenditure is influenced by financial and economic determinants. Results show that both oil price and consumer sentiment play important roles in influencing consumption growth.

Success Factors For Promoting Living Wages In Richmond Virginia, Alison Kent

School of Professional and Continuing Studies Nonprofit Studies Capstone Projects

Advancing living wages helps reduce poverty, enable individuals to realize their full societal potential, and support overall economic growth. In this paper, I describe a research project I undertook in Richmond, Virginia to identify impactful actions that can be taken to promote living wages. I identified the roles of organizations across different sectors and subsectors and how these organizations collaborate to drive living wages. I define the model that has evolved in Richmond, Virginia and I compare it to models employed in other communities. I close by identifying those components which are unique and powerful in the Richmond model and …

The Effects Of The Russian Invasion Of Ukraine On Exports To Italy, Stephen Johnson, Ryder Hankins, Nathan Carter

Undergraduate Research Symposium Posters

Italy imported 122,000 tons of soft wheat from Ukraine and 72,000 from Russia. During the current events international food and feed prices have increased by 8 to 22% causing mass shortages around the world. On top of the ethical and moral dilemmas of continuing business with Russia, insurance premiums have jumped 400% for doing business with the invading country.

Making Better Farm Management Decisions, Matthew Stockton

Cornhusker Economics

Traditionally, producer education efforts around farm management are directed at understanding the academic topics of business operations and management including, accounting, law, human resources, marketing, production, risk, finance, etc. The information, techniques and tools taught are often concrete and focus on measurement, analysis, and data. For instance, a traditional grain marketing education program would generally include topics in forward contracts, options, futures, hedge to arrive, basis contracts, storage, and seasonality. While these programs can be quite powerful in developing quantitative skills and knowledge, they neglect a key element needed by all farm managers to make objectively clear decisions. This key …

Financial Literacy As It Relates To Food Insecurity, Allister C. Dias

Undergraduate Research Symposium Podium Presentations

In reference to individual-level financial literacy: 1. What role does financial literacy play in determining food security? 2. What affect does race/ethnicity play in the likelihood of being food insecure? How does the effect of financial literacy vary across the dimension of race/ethnicity?

The Effect Of Covid-19 On The Low-Wage Workforce Nationwide, Katie Gilbertson

Undergraduate Research Symposium Podium Presentations

Key Takeaways: 1. Each low-wage occupation pays less than the mean hourly wage in their respective MSA. 2. Least amount of wage variance among MSAs in 2019. 3. In Las Vegas 2/3 of occupational wages increased, but employment dropped in 14/15 occupations. Leisure and hospitality occupations hardest hit and slowest to recover.

U.S./Russia Export Relationship, Adam Nishino, Mohammad Saad Bin Shahzad, Yonathan Assefa, Trel Lakindanum

Undergraduate Research Symposium Posters

Russia and the United States have a long history of trading as early as 1913. Over the years, Russia has become a notable player in US imports. By using the United States Census database and the Office of the United States Trade Representative database. In short, our research will discuss the trade relationship between Russia and the United States over the last century, through history and data analytics, and its effects on trade and politics to the rest of the world.