Economics Commons^™

Effects Of Unemployment Insurance Reforms In Brazil, Christopher J. O'Leary, Túlio Cravo, Ana Cristina Sierra, Leandro Justino Veloso

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Nebraska Agricultural Machinery And Equipment Sales Tax Exemption, Austin Duerfeldt

Cornhusker Economics

Nebraska sales and use tax for farmers and ranchers can be a difficult subject. When purchasing or leasing depreciable agricultural machinery and equipment for commercial agricultural use those purchases are listed as exempt from Nebraska and local sales and use taxes. The purchase of a 200- horsepower tractor or a new 12-row planter often is the first to come to mind when thinking of assets that fall into that category. The question that often arises though is what about other items such as a seed tender, auger wagon, or skid steer? For that answer you have to do research on …

The Long-Term Effects Of Labor Market Entry In A Recession: Evidence From The Asian Financial Crisis, Eleanor Jawon Choi, Jaewoo Choi, Hyelim Son

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper investigates the long-term effects of initial labor market conditions by comparing cohorts who graduated from college before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis in South Korea. We measure the overall welfare effect by examining their labor market activities, family formation, and household finances. Using data from 20 waves of the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, we find a substantial and persistent reduction in employment, earnings, marriage, fertility, and asset building among men who graduated during a recession. For women, limited job opportunities at graduation result in an increase in childbearing. Our results suggest that labor …

Worker Overconfidence: Field Evidence And Implications For Employee Turnover And Firm Profits, Mitchell Hoffman, Stephen Burks

Economics & Management Publications

Combining weekly productivity data with weekly productivity beliefs for a large sample of truckers over 2 years, we show that workers tend to systematically and persistently overpredict their productivity. If workers are overconfident about their own productivity at the current firm relative to their outside option, they should be less likely to quit. Empirically, all else equal, having higher productivity beliefs is associated with an employee being less likely to quit. To study the implications of overconfidence for worker welfare and firm profits, we estimate a structural learning model with biased beliefs that accounts for many key features of the …

Temperature And Economic Activity: Evidence From India, Anuska Jain, Róisín O'Sullivan, Vis Taraz

Economics: Faculty Publications

This paper investigates the impact of temperature on economic activity in India, using state-level data from 1980–2015. We estimate that a 1 ◦C increase in contemporaneous temperature (relative to our sample mean) reduces the economic growth rate that year by 2.5 percentage points. The adverse impact of higher temperatures is more severe in poorer states and in the primary sector. Our analysis of lagged temperatures suggests that our effects are driven by the contemporaneous effect of temperature on output; we do not find evidence of a permanent impact of contemporaneous temperatures on future growth rates.

Review Of The Causes Of 1907 Panic And Aftermath, Maria H. Ramjerdi

Department of Economics Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

The Panic of 1907 is often known as the Panic that initiated the development of the Federal Reserve System (Bordo, 1985). The Panic of 1907 was "The beginning of the end of unregulated capital markets and banking system without the lender of the last resort in the United States." (Fohlin, Gehrig and Haas, 2015, page 2). Numerous causes lead to the Panic of 1907 including: shadow banking, the San Francisco earthquake and fire, stock price manipulation, seasonal agriculture fluctuations, an outflow of gold, and higher interest rates. This paper reviews the primary literature on these causes, and how they led …

Economic Impact Of Downstream Gas Development In West Virginia, Eric Bowen

Bureau of Business & Economic Research

Downstream gas development has the potential to provide significant economic value if West Virginia can capture this development within its borders. In this report, we explore the potential impact of downstream natural gas industries on the West Virginia economy. To estimate the economic impact of downstream natural gas development, we take a two-pronged approach. First, we identify those industries nationally that require large amounts of natural gas in their production process. We then choose three of these industries that have the greatest potential for development within West Virginia. Second, we estimate the economic impact of a typical establishment in each …

The Rising Importance Of Chinese Monetary Policy, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Expert expects the influence of Chinese monetary policy to rise as the country’s share of the global economy increases

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2020 February, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

On balance, our overall read of the latest multiyear Big5 survey results implies the following economy-at-risk scale (least to most): India, US, Euro Area, Japan and China (i.e., India’s economy might be least at-risk, while China is deemed to be most at-risk). Broadly, survey participants expect the risk assessment to GDP growth to be skewed to the downside in 2020 followed by a more balanced backdrop in 2021. But participants seem to be more divided, with most responses favoring “downside” or/and “balanced” risks, on the 2022 growth environment. The risks to headline inflation in 2020, however, appear to be more …

Iba Newsletter [February 2020], Communications Department, Office Of The Registrar

IBA News

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index -- February 2020, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Predictably (Boundedly) Rational: Examples Of Seemingly Irrational Behavior Can Be Quantitatively Explained By Bounded Rationality, Laxman Bokati, Olga Kosheleva, Vladik Kreinovich

Departmental Technical Reports (CS)

Traditional economics is based on the simplifying assumption that people behave perfectly rationally, that before making any decision, a person thoroughly analyzes all possible situations. In reality, we often do not have enough time to thoroughly analyze all the available information, as a result of which we make decisions of bounded rationality -- bounded by our inability to perform a thorough analysis of the situation. So, to predict human behavior, it is desirable to study how people actually make decisions. The corresponding area of economics is known as behavioral economics. It is known that many examples of seemingly irrational behavior …

Off-Label Use Of Recreational Cannabis: Acid Reflux In Colorado, Jacqueline M. Doremus, Sarah S. Stith, Jacob M. Vigil

Economics

Medical cannabis access has been shown to affect clinical health outcomes and health care spending. Unlike medical access, which requires a doctor's recommendation for treatment and only applies to the limited conditions approved under the state's medical cannabis program, recreational access makes cannabis available over-the-counter (OTC). This may create additional benefits through off-label cannabis use to treat unlisted conditions, such as acid reflux, which affects two out of three Americans. Using the roll out of recreational dispensaries in Colorado in 2014, we estimate the change in retailers' market share of antacid medications using a difference-in-differences design. Antacid market share decreases …

Kentucky Annual Economic Report 2020, Michael W. Clark, William H. Hoyt, Simon Sheather, Michael T. Childress

Kentucky Annual Economic Report

This report is one of the important ways that the Center for Business and Economic Research fulfills its mission to examine various aspects of the Kentucky economy. The analysis and data presented here cover a variety of topics that range from an economic forecast for Kentucky in 2020 to a broad presentation of factors affecting the economy.

Value Added Fed And Feeder Cattle Practices: Are They Paying?, Elliott James Dennis

Extension Farm and Ranch Management News

Summary

Some value added management programs clearly pay more than others and some do not pay at all. However, just like with a breeding or forage management strategy where not every year the cow gets bred back or the grass has sufficient protein, a value added program strategies premiums vary year to year. Switching the way cattle are managed and raised, handled, and fed requires planning and an understanding of labor and management capabilities. Not every cattle producer could or even should switch management practices an animal health protocol – even if premiums do exist. Thus, careful planning and consideration …

Air Pollution And Mental Health Of Older Adults In China, Yishu Zhou, Jingyi Liu

Economics Faculty Research & Creative Works

In this paper, we explore the association between air pollution and the mental health and depression of older adults in China. Along with the rapid economic development, concerns about air pollution and recognition of the importance of mental health have risen remarkably in China. Although no firm evidence of an association between air pollution and overall mental health has been found, the results show significant evidence of a positive relationship between air pollution and depression. Moreover, we observe the presence of concerns about environmental inequality, as people are more sensitive to contaminations caused by pollutants with high variation in densities …

Partial Identification And Inference For Dynamic Models And Counterfactuals, Myrto Kalouptsidi, Yuichi Kitamura, Lucas Lima, Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We provide a general framework for investigating partial identification of structural dynamic discrete choice models and their counterfactuals, along with uniformly valid inference procedures. In doing so, we derive sharp bounds for the model parameters, counterfactual behavior, and low-dimensional outcomes of interest, such as the average welfare effects of hypothetical policy interventions. We characterize the properties of the sets analytically and show that when the target outcome of interest is a scalar, its identified set is an interval whose endpoints can be calculated by solving well-behaved constrained optimization problems via standard algorithms. We obtain a uniformly valid inference procedure by …

How Much Time Do East Texans Spend Commuting? - February 2020, Manuel Reyes-Loya, Marilyn Young, Ayush Kumar

Hibbs Newsletter

In this issue of the Hibbs Newsletter, we discuss key characteristics of the commuting workforce in the U.S. with a focus on East Texas.

Inflation Targeting And Exchange Rate Volatility In Emerging Markets, Rene Cabral, Francisco G. Carneiro, Andre V. Mollick

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The paper investigates the exchange rate on the reaction function of 24 emerging markets economies’ (EMEs) central banks from 2000Q1 to 2015Q2. This is done by first employing fixed-effects (FE) ordinary least squares and then system generalized methods of the moments techniques. Under FE, the exchange rate is important in the reaction function of EMEs. Allowing for the endogeneity of inflation, output gap, and the exchange rate, the exchange rate remains positive and statistically significant (but quantitatively less) across inflation targeting countries. When the sample is partitioned into targeting and non-targeting countries, the exchange rate remains relevant in the reaction …

Essays On Anomalies In International Equity Markets, Xiao Cheng

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters related to empirical asset pricing in the international stock market.

Chapter 1: "Loss of International Sales and Stock Performance" Using international firm-level data from 1990-2015, I show that when global firms' total international sales drop to zero, this conveys an important signal about future firm operations. An equal-weighted portfolio that sells stocks of firms that completely lost international sales and buys stocks of global firms earns up to 86 basis points per month (over 10% per year). This return predictability cannot be explained by the Fama-French international three- or five-factor models. Further examination suggests …

Essays On The Application Of The Machine Learning Methods In Finance And Policy Evaluation, Olga Guska

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

In the age when "Big Data" is becoming almost a household word, such abundance of information in different forms and representations can be of a great help for one's decision-making let it be a trader betting on a stock, or a policy-maker assessing the potential impact of proposed regulation. Whereas traditional economic research is primarily based on the use of numerical data continuous or discrete, there is a great deal of useful information that can be extracted from text data. Such information can power novel identification strategies or help perceive solutions from a different angle, but observed volumes of such …

Essays On Macroeconomic Uncertainty And Capital Flows, Luis E. Silva-Yanez

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation studies the effects of uncertainty shocks in emerging economies in a context where these economies increased their participation in international financial markets. The first chapter provides a review of the literature on how the study of uncertainty shocks recently became more relevant as a result of higher financial integration experienced by emerging economies. The second chapter aims to investigate the quantitative effects on key domestic macroeconomic variables of implementing a foreign reserves accumulation policy with full sterilization. It extends an asymmetric two-country model by introducing a global interbank market and an active domestic central bank. The goal of …

More Effective Than We Thought: Central Bank Independence And Inflation In Developing Countries, Ana Caolina Garriga, Cesar M. Rodriguez

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This study examines the effect of legal central bank independence on inflation in developing countries. In spite of the policy consensus suggesting that central bank independence is an effective tool to control inflation, the evidence is still limited, particularly for developing countries. Using a novel dataset, we analyze the effect of central bank independence on inflation for a sample of 118 developing countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that higher central bank independence is associated with lower inflation rates. This effect on inflation is stronger the more democratic a country is, but it is also present in non-democratic countries. …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 4, Number 2, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton, Ana Gutierrez Zubiate, Ignacio Santana

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Rural Poverty And Urban Proximity In Sabah, Malaysia, Joseph Jeron

Student Works (2020-2029)

One of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to eradicate extreme poverty globally by 2030 in all countries including Malaysia. While Malaysia is close to achieving this target, poverty still persists in the state of Sabah. Therefore, this study examines the determinants of household poverty in rural Sabah with a focus on urban proximity. A purposefully designed survey instrument was used to gather primary data on a total of 407 rural households in 78 villages, spread across 16 poorest districts of Sabah. In addition, Geographic Information System (GIS) data on sample households and villages was collected to construct …

Latinos In The Labor Force, Phillip Granberry

Gastón Institute Publications

In 2018 a financial news and commentary website, 24/7 Wall St., ranked Massachusetts as the state with the largest economic and social disparities between Latinos and non-Latino whites. For example, median household income was shown to be slightly above $80,000 for whites and just under $40,000 for Latinos. Even more starkly, the rates of homeownership were shown as 69.3% and 26.0%, respectively.

The present report offers an in-depth look at one aspect of the disparity, namely, the difference between the median wage income of Latinos and non-Latinos (a great majority of whom in Massachusetts are non-Latino white). In 2017 …

(Wp 2020-01) The Sea Battle Tomorrow: The Identity Of Reflexive Economic Agents, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

This paper develops a conception of reflexive economic agents as an alternative to the standard utility conception, and explains individual identity in terms of how agents adjust to change in a self-organizing way, an idea developed from Herbert Simon. The paper distinguishes closed equilibrium and open process conceptions of the economy, and argues the former fails to explain time in a before-and-after sense in connection with Aristotle’s sea battle problem. A causal model is developed to represent the process conception, and a structure-agency understanding of the adjustment behavior of reflexive economic agents is illustrated using Merton’s self-fulfilling prophecy analysis. Simon’s …

Credibility Of Crime Allegations, Frances Xu Lee, Wing Suen

School of Business: Faculty Publications and Other Works

The lack of hard evidence in allegations about sexual misconduct makes it difficult to separate true allegations from false ones. We provide a model in which victims and potential libelers face the same costs and benefits from making an allegation, but the tendency for perpetrators of sexual misconduct to engage in repeat offenses allows semiseparation to occur, which lends credibility to such allegations. Our model also explains why reports about sexual misconduct are often delayed, and why the public rationally assigns less credibility to these delayed reports.

Canadian Travelers - Why They Visit Montana, Carter Bermingham, Glenna Hartman, Norma P. Nickerson

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

In the past five years, the number of Canadian visitors to Montana and their expenditure totals have decreased. This report highlights the characteristics of Canadian travelers to Montana, along with accompanying analysis of recent literature and statistics that attempt to provide some explanation for these observed trends. Results confirm that that the exchange rate is the largest contributing factor to decreases in Canadian visitors to the state.

Harnessing The Power Of Social Incentives To Curb Shirking In Teams, Brice Corgnet, Brian C. Gunia, Roberto Hernán González

ESI Working Papers

We study several solutions to shirking in teams that trigger social incentives by reshaping the workplace social context. Using an experimental design, we manipulate social pressure at work by varying the type of workplace monitoring and the extent to which employees engage in social interaction. This design allows us to assess the effectiveness as well as the popularity of each solution. Despite similar effectiveness in boosting productivity across solutions, only organizational systems involving social interaction (via chat) were at least as popular as a baseline treatment. This suggests that any solution based on promoting social interaction is more likely to …