Economics Commons^™

Problems Of Economic Liberalization In Iran, Akbar E. Torbat

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

This paper examines economic liberalization reforms in post-revolutionary Iran. The paper explores the problems that have been encountered in implementing economic reforms in recent years, which include adjustment of prices, unifying of the exchange rates, and privatization of state-owned enterprises. The paper also discusses the methods used in privatizing the state-owned enterprises and their fallout due to the underestimation of their assets’ values and corruption in their selling process. The paper further explains why the current structure of the Iranian government makes the reforms unsuccessful and why neoliberal economic policies are not compatible with Islamic egalitarian values.

Regional Deindustrialization In Turkey, Burhan Can Karahasan

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

Historical evolution of industrial economic activity has been central to economic policy in developing economies. An emerging line of literature discussed that, tendency for falling manufacturing based industrial economic activity can signal a problem for developing countries. Evidence shows that developing countries' growth rates fall below their potential growth and unemployment rates strikes to relatively high levels if deindustrialization pattern is premature and early unlike the experiences observed for advanced countries. Given continuous structural change and sizable regional disparities in Turkey, we examine the regional dimension and discuss the influence of regional deindustrialization for convergence of Turkish regions. Our analyses …

Sectoral Analysis Of Financial Inclusion On Gross Capital Formation: The Case Of Selected Mena Countries, Noha Emara, Freddy A. Rojas Cama

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

Most governments have firmly taken a stance of promoting financial inclusion in the progressive agenda. Access to financial services is aimed at improving allocation of re- sources across small and medium firms insofar as productivity-related effects may enhance the prospects of catching the next ladder of development. Although mostly empirical literature has quantitatively measured the effects of the financial inclusion on aggregate data such as growth or productivity, we know very little of the aforementioned effects on sectorial variates. The contribution of this paper is the estimation of the effect of financial inclusion on the gross capital formation among high- …

Does Gender Affect Subjective Well-Being? The Case Of Turkey, Seda Şengül, Kenan Lopcu

Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies

Significant differences in social and economic resources exist between genders in the world as well as in Turkey. These differences have definite potential to affect life satisfaction, a specific aspect of subjective well-being. Measuring and analyzing the impact of gender differences in subjective well-being are very significant for societies in defining efficient and effective policies to reduce social inequalities and to dampen the gap in the quality of life between genders. Hence, the purpose of this study is to estimate the effect of gender difference on subjective well-being between men and women in Turkey, using panel ordered probit models, and …

Teaching Economic Risk Management Through A Video Game Concept, Samantha Montella

Senior Honors Projects

Many video games imply economic behavior: making decisions within a game highlights the fundamentals of human action. The basic idea is that virtual worlds, like the real world, present us with a series of choices. Games impose digital scarcity, obliging players to weigh the benefits of different courses of action, make tradeoffs, and incur costs.

Good examples are found in the role-playing game (RPG) genre, where players face tough choices between different specializations and skill trees. Obliging players to make difficult decisions highlights the opportunity costs of choice, not the money cost. Games also encourage players to think entrepreneurially: to …

Predicting The Federal Funds Rate, Danielle Herzberg

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This thesis examines various economic indicators to select those that are the most significant in a predictive model of the Effective Federal Funds Rate. Three different statistical models were built to show how monetary policy changed over time. These three models frame the last economic downturns in the United States; the tech bubble, the housing bubble, and the Great Recession. Many iterations of statistical regressions were conducted in order to achieve the final three models that highlight variables with the highest levels of significance. It is important to note the economic data has high levels of autocorrelation, and that these …

Institutions, Opportunism And Prosocial Behavior: Some Experimental Evidence, Antonio Cabrales, Irma Clots-Figueras, Roberto Hernán-González, Praveen Kujal

ESI Working Papers

Formal or informal institutions have long been adopted by societies to protect against opportunistic behavior. However, we know very little about how these institutions are chosen and their impact on behavior. We experimentally investigate the demand for different levels of institutions that provide low to high levels of insurance and its subsequent impact on prosocial behavior. We conduct a large-scale online experiment where we add the possibility of purchasing insurance to safeguard against low reciprocity to the standard trust game. We compare two different mechanisms, the private (purchase) and the social (voting) choice of institutions. Whether voted or purchased, we …

Chaprates, Brinly Xavier, Micole Amanda Marietta, Nidhi Vedantam

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

On the Chapman campus, through taking and choosing various classes, there is a significant need for communication and feedback between students and peers, professors, tutors, and study groups. With this, we wanted to create an application that enables users from various majors to not only easily and effectively communicate with various people in their field, but one that also enables them to give and receive feedback on various classes through a rating system. We believe that the application will aid students in a myriad of specific ways, including being involved in study groups and getting tutoring help, determining which classes …

Paternal Provisioning Results From Ecological Change, Ingela Alger, Paul L. Hooper, Donald Cox, Jonathan Stieglitz, Hillard S. Kaplan

ESI Publications

Paternal provisioning is ubiquitous in human subsistence societies and unique among apes. How could paternal provisioning have emerged from promiscuous or polygynous mating systems that characterize other apes? An anomalous provisioning male would encounter a social dilemma: Since this investment in prospective offspring can be expropriated by other males, this investment is unlikely to increase the provisioner’s fitness. We present an ecological theory of the evolution of human paternal investment. Ecological change favoring reliance on energetically rich, difficult-to-acquire resources increases payoffs to paternal provisioning due to female–male and/or male–male complementarities. Paternal provisioning becomes a viable reproductive strategy when complementarities are …

Asset Price Volatility And Price Extrema, Carey Caginalp, Gunduz Caginalp

ESI Publications

The relationship between price volatility and expected price market extremum is examined using a fundamental economics model of supply and demand. By examining randomness through a microeconomic setting, we obtain the implications of randomness in the supply and demand, rather than assuming that price has randomness on an empirical basis. Within a general setting of changing fundamentals, the volatility is maximum when expected prices are changing most rapidly, with the maximum of volatility reached prior to the maximum of expected price. A key issue is that randomness arises from the supply and demand, and the variance in the stochastic differential …

Information Aggregation And The Cognitive Make-Up Of Traders, Brice Corgnet, Mark Desantis, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

We assess the effect of the cognitive make-up of traders on the informational efficiency of markets. We put forth that cognitive skills, such as cognitive reflection, are crucial for ensuring the informational efficiency of markets because they endow traders with the ability to infer others’ information from prices. Using laboratory experiments, we show that information aggregation is significantly enhanced when (i) all traders possess high levels of cognitive sophistication and (ii) this high level of cognitive sophistication is common information for all traders. Our findings shed light on the cognitive and informational constraints underlying the efficient market hypothesis.

Neoclassical Supply And Demand, Experiments, And The Classical Theory Of Price Formation, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

"The 1870s neoclassical marginal revolution in economics culminated a century later in a striking conclusion: The core utility maximization principle of neoclassical economics was shown to have no interesting implication for aggregate market behavior (Sonnenschein, 1972, 1973a, 1973b; Debreu, 1974; Mantel, 1974; Kirman, 1989; Shafer & Sonnenschein, 1993; Rizvi, 2006). We argue that neoclassical price theory was founded on two axioms—price-taking behavior and the law of one price in a market—that, if imposed on the theory, were logically inconsistent with a theory of market price formation. This logical gap in neoclassical theory was filled essentially with thought experiments: Jevons derives …

Detecting Latent Communities In Network Formation Models, Shujie Ma, Liangjun Su, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a logistic undirected network formation model which allows for assortative matching on observed individual characteristics and the presence of edge-wise fixed effects. We model the coefficients of observed characteristics to have a latent community structure and the edge-wise fixed effects to be of low rank. We propose a multi-step estimation procedure involving nuclear norm regularization, sample splitting, iterative logistic regression and spectral clustering to detect the latent communities. We show that the latent communities can be exactly recovered when the expected degree of the network is of order log n or higher, where n is the number …

Asymptotic Theory For Near Integrated Processes Driven By Tempered Linear Processes, Farzad Sabzikar, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

In an early article on near-unit root autoregression, Ahtola and Tiao (1984) studied the behavior of the score function in a stationary first order autoregression driven by independent Gaussian innovations as the autoregressive coefficient approached unity from below. The present paper develops asymptotic theory for near-integrated random processes and associated regressions including the score function in more general settings where the errors are tempered linear processes. Tempered processes are stationary time series that have a semi-long memory property in the sense that the autocovariogram of the process resembles that of a long memory model for moderate lags but eventually diminishes …

Forecast Combinations In Machine Learning, Yue Qiu, Tian Xie, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces novel methods to combine forecasts made by machine learning techniques. Machine learning methods have found many successful applications in predicting the response variable. However, they ignore model uncertainty when the relationship between the response variable and the predictors is nonlinear. To further improve the forecasting performance, we propose a general framework to combine multiple forecasts from machine learning techniques. Simulation studies show that the proposed machine-learning-based forecast combinations work well. In empirical applications to forecast key macroeconomic and financial variables, we find that the proposed methods can produce more accurate forecasts than individual machine learning techniques and …

Econometric Methods And Data Science Techniques: A Review Of Two Strands Of Literature And An Introduction To Hybrid Methods, Tian Xie, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

The data market has been growing at an exceptional pace. Consequently, more sophisticated strategies to conduct economic forecasts have been introduced with machine learning techniques. Does machine learning pose a threat to conventional econometric methods in terms of forecasting? Moreover, does machine learning present great opportunities to cross-fertilize the field of econometric forecasting? In this report, we develop a pedagogical framework that identifies complementarity and bridges between the two strands of literature. Existing econometric methods and machine learning techniques for economic forecasting are reviewed and compared. The advantages and disadvantages of these two classes of methods are discussed. A class …

Grain Marketing 2020: Survival And Covid-19, Robert Tigner, Jessica J. Groskopf

Extension Farm and Ranch Management News

First paragraph:

Let’s state the obvious: this isn’t a typical year and we all know it. For farmers, it is a survival year. Why? And what might be done to make it through to the other side of the COVID-19 pandemic? This article will discuss how to build a marketing strategy to assure that the farm continues to the next crop year.

Conclusion

This year is shaping up to be a survival year for crop producers. Crop producers need to know at what crop price they will recapture all of the cash they will spend this year. Implementing a marketing …

Technology In Major League Baseball: 2017 Houston Astros, Prisoner’S Dilemma, And Behavioral Solutions, Spencer Kinyon

Honors Scholar Theses

This paper compares and contrasts the economic model for baseball in the 20th century without technology and the economic model for baseball in the 21st century with technology. Major League Baseball (MLB) teams have evolved to use technology to improve the performance of players on the field. This paper explores the economics of penalties in MLB and how teams are penalized for their use of illegal technology. In the 2017 season, the Houston Astros used illegal technology that led the team to win the World Series. This paper provides a cost-benefit analysis to determine whether or not a team should …

Options For Unemployment Insurance Structural And Administrative Reform: Proposals And Analysis, Stephen A. Wandner

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

The unemployment insurance (UI) program is broken. UI benefits and taxes are out of balance, with benefit payments tending to exceed tax revenues, while the program is unable to provide adequate reemployment services to permanently separated UI recipients. The current crisis in the UI program has been building over the past four decades. Although UI and Social Security were both enacted as part of the Social Security Act, reforms to the programs have diverged sharply. Congress has frequently amended the Social Security program to increase benefits and taxes, and then in 1972 it enacted a permanent annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) …

Nationalism Beyond A Nation: Non-Iberian Spanish Nationalism Examined, George Ruggiero Iv

Honors Theses

In this thesis, I explore differences between certain non-Spanish nationalist movements within Spain. To do this, I examine similarities and differences in economic, political, and cultural factors that may explain why some Spanish autonomous communities exhibit major nationalist movements and some do not. These factors include the presence of proclaimed nationalist political parties, strongly identified cultural identities, and historical elements that point to the existence of a non-Spanish identity or nationalist movement.

Has Covid-19 Impacted Price-Weight Relationships And Value Of Gain?, Elliott James Dennis

Extension Farm and Ranch Management News

First paragraph:

In the beginning of COVID-19, much of the attention was focused on managing the redirection of meat product from food service to retail stores. This past month has keenly focused on packing plant closures due to COVID-19 cases among workers and how to manage the supply of fat cattle already ready for slaughter. Fat cattle available for slaughter either cannot get bids or bids are significantly below breakeven prices leaving feedlots with decisions to be made about marketing and placements. The April 2020 Cattle on Feed report (https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/m326m174z) revealed March placement decisions. Placements were down about …

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: April 29, 2020, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The LEI-N fell by 7.96% during March of 2020 as the COVID-19 Pandemic impacted Nebraska’s economy. The leading indicator primarily fell due to a spike in initial claims for unemployment insurance and a sharp drop in the airline passenger enplanements during March. Other components of the leading indicator also were impacted, given a decline in both building permits for single-family homes and manufacturing hours-worked. There also was a sharp increase in the value of the U.S. dollar during March, which creates additional challenges for both agriculture and manufacturing businesses. The decline in the leading indicator suggests that the Nebraska economy …

How Do Farmers Experience Agroecology In Rural Communities Of Northern Ecuador?, Neil Michael Ayala Ayala

Latin American Studies ETDs

Agroecology, a concept in continuous evolution embraces science, practice and sociopolitical aspects. Its meaning is gaining space of debate and global interest as an alternative for building sustainable food systems and resilient communities, not only from the environmental perspective, but from all the dimensions of sustainability. The Andes region is recognized for its agrodiversity and for its history of agricultural activity; nevertheless, the effects of unsustainable agricultural practices inspired in the principles of the so called “Green Revolution” are evident. Conventional agriculture has decreased the capacity of resilience of the agroecosystems and their associated communities. Agroecology is often perceived as …

Economic Impacts Of Food Fraud, Syed Imran Ali Meerza, Konstantinos Giannakas, Amalia Yiannaka

Cornhusker Economics

When you order seafood at a restaurant, do you get what you pay for? Scientists from Oceana, a non-profit marine conservation organization, conducted one of the largest seafood fraud investigations on 1,215 samples from 674 outlets in 21 states of the United States (U.S.) over the period 2010 to 2012.They found that there is, on average, a 33% probability that you do not actually get what you pay for. The share of mislabeled food was (a quite remarkable) 74% for seafood sold in sushi restaurants and 18% of seafood sold in gro-cery stores with mislabeled “red snapper” and “tuna” accounting …

Covid-19: Projected Job Loss In Mountain West States, Marie A. Falcone, Caitlin Saladino, William E. Brown

Economic Development & Workforce

This Fact Sheet highlights Mountain West data from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) report titled, “States are projected to lose more jobs due to the coronavirus: 14 million jobs could be lost by summer.” The original data source provides figures on the estimated job loss from private sector employment in retail, leisure, and hospitality. This Fact Sheet examines the data for large metropolitan Mountain West states (including Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) with projected job loss in the coming months due to the coronavirus.

Wind Turbines And Housing Prices: Valuing The Impact Of Wind Farms On Transactions, Nathan Guzman

Undergraduate Honors Theses

As the number of wind farms worldwide increases, more and more homeowners will live near them. Some homeowners have found these wind turbines generate noise, obstruct views, and cast shadows on their property. Using data from 10 years of transactions in McLean County, Illinois, I investigate if a wind farm near a neighborhood impacts housing prices. After estimating a simple difference-in-differences model, I find that wind farms may have had a negative effect on home prices. I then discuss how this paper fits in with existing literature and provide suggestions about how further research could proceed.

Most Self-Employed Workers Are Independent Contractors, Katharine G. Abraham, Brad J. Hershbein, Susan N. Houseman

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Separate And Unequal: The Causes And Effects Of Economic Inequality In Our Communities, And What We Must Do About It, Jonathan Payne

Honors Theses

This project seeks to create a deep understanding of some of the key causes and effects of economic inequality. In it, I review a wide variety of research and reporting on inequality as well as interview people that have been impacted by inequality in my community, Oxford, Mississippi. This information, as a whole, is not meant to create a complete, comprehensive understanding of income and wealth inequality, which would be impossible. Instead, it is a meditation on the origins, cycles, outcomes and ethical implications of the phenomenon. In it, I contend that the vast majority of negative outcomes of inequality, …

Year Three Report: Evaluating The Kansas City Scholars College Scholarship Program, Kevin Hollenbeck, Bridget Timmeney, Brad J. Hershbein, Shane M. Reed

Reports

No abstract provided.

The Objective Need For The Development Of Ecoturism In The Fergana Economic Territory, Obidjon Khafizovich Khamidov, Hulkarbonu Yoqubovna Yoqubjonova

Scientific reports of Bukhara State University

This article is explained by the study of the role of the local population as a labor force in the development of eco-tourism. Also, this research project on shaping the role of the local population in the development of ecotourism is designed to improve the quality of ecotourism services and attract more eco-tourists to Chodak, the study area. This will create more opportunities for the local population to benefit from ecotourism. It also helps to improve infrastructure, such as a good road network in the most important area.