Economics Commons^™

On The Existence Of Equilibrium In Bayesian Games Without Complementarities, Idione Meneghel, Rabee Tourky

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper presents new results on the existence of pure-strategy Bayesian equilibria in specified functional forms. These results broaden the scope of methods developed by Reny (2011) well beyond monotone pure strategies. Applications include natural models of first-price and all-pay auctions not covered by previous existence results. To illustrate the scope of our results, we provide an analysis of three auctions: (i) a first-price auction of objects that are heterogeneous and imperfect substitutes; (ii) a first-price auction in which bidders’ payoffs have a very general interdependence structure; and (iii) an all-pay auction with non-monotone equilibrium.

Estimated Costs Of Injuries In College And High School Female Sports, Ray C. Fair, Christopher Champa

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Injury rates in thirteen U.S. women’s college sports and four U.S. girls’ high school sports are examined in this paper. The sports are categorized as high injury (H) or low injury (L) and differences in injury rates between the two are examined. Estimates are presented of the injury savings that would result if the H sports were changed to have injury rates similar to those in the L sports. The estimated college savings are 13,610 fewer injuries per year and 2,020 fewer healthy years lost-to-injury per year. The estimated high school savings are 143,900 fewer injuries per year and 24,300 …

U.S. Infrastructure: 1929-2017, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines the history of U.S. infrastructure since 1929 and in the process reports an interesting fact about the U.S. economy. Infrastructure as a percent of GDP began a steady decline around 1970, and the government budget deficit became positive and large at roughly the same time. The infrastructure pattern in other countries does not mirror that in the United States, so the United States appears to be a special case. The overall results suggest that the United States became less future oriented beginning around 1970. This change has persisted. This is the interesting fact. Whether it can be …

Progressive Participation, Dirk Bergemann, Philipp Strack

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A single seller faces a sequence of buyers with unit demand. The buyers are forward-looking and long-lived but vanish (and are replaced) at a constant rate. The arrival time and the valuation is private information of each buyer and unobservable to the seller. Any incentive-compatible mechanism has to induce truth-telling about the arrival time and the evolution of the valuation. We derive the optimal stationary mechanism, characterize its qualitative structure and derive a closed-form solution. As the arrival time is private information, the agent can choose the time at which he reports his arrival. The truth-telling constraint regarding the arrival …

On The Existence Of Equilibrium In Bayesian Games Without Complementarities, Idione Meneghel, Rabee Tourky

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper presents new results on the existence of pure-strategy Bayesian equilibria in specified functional forms. These results broaden the scope of methods developed by Reny (2011) well beyond monotone pure strategies. Applications include natural models of first-price and all-pay auctions not covered by previous existence results. To illustrate the scope of our results, we provide an analysis of three auctions: (i) a first-price auction of objects that are heterogeneous and imperfect substitutes; (ii) a first-price auction in which bidders’ payoffs have a very general interdependence structure; and (iii) an all-pay auction with non-monotone equilibrium.

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 3, Number 8, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton, Ana Gutierrez Zubiate, Ignacio Santana

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Hotel Sector Forecast Accuracy In El Paso: 2006-2016, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Border Region Modeling Project

This study evaluates the accuracy of previously published econometric forecasts for seven lodging sector variables that measure hotel activity in El Paso, Texas. The hotel forecasts have been generated annually using an econometric model of the El Paso metropolitan economy from 2006 forward. Predictive accuracy is evaluated relative to random walk benchmarks. Assessment is completed using both descriptive forecast error summary statistics as well as formal statistical tests. The econometric model outperforms the random walk benchmarks for a majority of the variables analyzed. However, statistical tests of forecast error differentials do not yield conclusive evidence in favor of the econometric …

Computerization Of White Collar Jobs, Marcus Dillender, Eliza C. Forsythe

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We investigate the impact of computerization of white-collar jobs on wages and employment. Using online job postings from 2007 and 2010-2016 for office and administrative support (OAS) jobs, we show that when firms adopt new software at the job-title level they increase the skills required of job applicants. Furthermore, firms change the task content of such jobs, broadening them to include tasks associated with higher-skill office functions. We aggregate these patterns to the local labor-market level, instrumenting for technology adoption with national measures. We find that a 1 standard deviation increase in OAS technology usages reduces employment in OAS occupations …

Medicaid Expansion And Diagnosis-Targeted Cost Shifting Behavior: The Case Of Diabetic Treatment And Insulin Pricing, Hayden Garff Hubbard

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

Nine years after passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and five years after the Medicaid expansion roll-out, the debate and cost-benefit analysis on U.S. health reform rages on. While many impacts of the ACA remain unmeasured or inconclusive due to mixed research claims and the complexities inherent to healthcare, widespread research interest on the effects of Medicaid expansion have led to some early findings regarding cost, access and quality.

Time-Varying Contemporaneous Spillovers During The European Debt Crisis, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijins, Alireza Tourani-Rad

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper considers contemporaneous spillover effects between Germany and four peripheral European countries that were most affected by the European Debt Crisis, and provides evidence of bidirectional spillovers among these equity markets. We document that there is asymmetry and time variation in contemporaneous spillovers. Particularly, contemporaneous return spillovers from Germany to the peripheral equity markets is higher than the other way around. We show that European Debt Crisis led to a decrease in the contemporaneous spillover effects.

To Extubate Or Not To Extubate: Risk Factors For Extubation Failure And Deterioration With Further Mechanical Ventilation, Jingui Xie, Guang Cheng, Zhichao Zheng, Haidong Luo, Oon Cheong Ooi

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Background: Extubation is a critical step in the intensive care unit (ICU). In this study, we aim to investigate the risk factors for both extubation failure and deterioration with further mechanical ventilation (MV). Methods: Data were collected from a cardiothoracic ICU in a tertiary hospital. The risk factors for extubation failure and deterioration with further MV were investigated by multivariate logistic regression. Results: A total of 676 patients were enrolled in the study. Patients with extubation failure had a longer ICU length of stay and a higher mortality rate than patients without extubation failure. An age greater than 65 years, …

Co-Enforcement Of Common Pool Resources: Experimental Evidence From Turfs In Chile, Carlos A. Chávez, James J. Murphy, John K. Stranlund

ESI Working Papers

This work presents the results of framed field experiments designed to study the co-enforcement of access to common pool resources. The experiments were conducted in the field with participants in the territorial use rights in fisheries (TURFs) management scheme that regulates access to nearshore fisheries along the coast of Chile. In the experiments, TURF members not only decided on harvest but also invested in monitoring to deter poaching by outsiders. Treatments varied whether the monitoring investment was an individual decision or determined by a group vote. Per-unit sanctions for poaching were exogenous as if provided by a government authority, and …

Industry 4.0: Challenges And Opportunities In Different Countries, Keng Siau, Yingrui Xi, Cui Zou

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

Along with the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), cyber-physical systems (CPSs), big data analytics, and cloud computing, Industry 4.0 — a subset of the fourth Industrial Revolution — has started to emerge and take root in many countries. Many expect that Industry 4.0 will be transformative and revolutionary for multiple industries and countries. Its impact will be much more significant than those of Industry 1.0, 2.0, and 3.0. Most studies and papers on Industry 4.0 have examined its impact on various industries, jobs, and organizations. In this article, we investigate the impact of Industry 4.0 on countries and groups …

The Political Business Cycle: Endogenous Election Timing & Hyperbolic Memory Discounting, Jake R. Cottle

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

In the models analyzed in this paper, there exists an incumbent politician with one objective, two choices, and voters who remember the past differently. The politician's primary goal is to get reelected, which is done by maximizing the number of votes on the day of election. The politician can increase their chances of reelection if they influence the state of the economy over time and ensure the economy is in its 'best' state on the days leading up to the election.

In conducting this research, I wanted to study how different rates of memory decay influences the choices the politician …

Should Place-Based Jobs Policies Be Used To Help Distressed Communities?, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Should policymakers seek to increase jobs in particular local labor markets? Yes, but only if these policies are well targeted and designed. Encouraging job growth in distressed places can cause persistent gains in employment-to-population ratios. But our current place-based jobs policies, under which state and local governments provide long-term tax incentives to megacorporations, are poorly targeted and designed. Such incentives are as large in nondistressed areas as in distressed areas, and they are excessively costly. What reforms are needed? First, job growth policies should target distressed areas. Second, tax incentives should be focused on high-multiplier businesses, such as high-tech firms. …

Bias And Productivity In Humans And Machines, Bo Cowgill

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Where should better learning technology (such as machine learning or AI) improve decisions? I develop a model of decision-making in which better learning technology is complementary with experimentation. Noisy, inconsistent decision-making introduces quasi-experimental variation into training datasets, which complements learning. The model makes heterogeneous predictions about when machine learning algorithms can improve human biases. These algorithms can remove human biases exhibited in historical training data, but only if the human training decisions are sufficiently noisy; otherwise, the algorithms will codify or exacerbate existing biases. Algorithms need only a small amount of noise to correct biases that cause large productivity distortions. …

Does The Healthcare Educational Market Respond To Short-Run Local Demand?, Marcus Dillender, Andrew Friedson, Cong Gian, Kosali Simon

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) increased demand for healthcare across the U.S., but it is unclear if or how the supply side has responded to meet this demand. In this paper, we take advantage of plausibly exogenous geographical heterogeneity in the ACA in order to examine the response of the healthcare education sector to increased demand for healthcare services. We look across educational fields, types of degrees, and types of institutions; we pay particular attention to settings where our conceptual model predicts heightened responses. We find no statistically significant evidence of increases in graduates and can rule …

Do Rent Increases Reduce The Housing Supply Under Rent Control? Evidence From Evictions In San Francisco, Brian Asquith

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Rent control balances strong tenant protections with supply-side incentives for landlords. However, cities with rent control are also some of the United States' most unaffordable, prompting questions about how well these incentives are working. I examine how controlled landlords change their housing supply in response to price increases using a well-identified hyperlocal demand shock the privately operated commuter shuttle systems in San Francisco. Controlled landlords increased market withdrawal filings and became less likely to create vacancies via evictions in response to a shuttle stop placement. Policies raising barriers to market withdrawals prompted controlled landlords to respond my increasing their at-fault …

Mortgage Dollar Roll, Zhaogang Song, Haoxiang Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Mortgage dollar roll, the most common financing strategy for agency MBS, differs from repo in that the returned collateral can differ from those received. Also, MBS ownership changes hands in the funding period. We show that dollar roll “specialness,” how much implied financing rates fall below MBS repo rates, (1) increases in the value of the cheapest-to-deliver option, (2) decreases in the leverage of primary dealers, (3) decreases in prepayment risk exposure during the financing period, and (4) decreases in MBS returns. The Federal Reserve’s dollar roll sales in quantitative easing operations are associated with lower specialness.

Hypothesis Testing, Specification Testing And Model Selection Based On The Mcmc Output Using R, Yong Li, Jun Yu, Tao Zeng

Research Collection School Of Economics

This chapter overviews several MCMC-based test statistics for hypothesis testing andspecification testing and MCMC-based model selection criteria developed in recentyears. The statistics for hypothesis testing can be viewed as the MCMC version ofthe “trinity” of test statistics based in maximum likelihood (ML), namely, the likelihoodratio (LR) test, the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test, and the Wald test. The model selection criteria correspond to two predictive distributions. One of them can be viewed asthe MCMC version of widely used information criterion, AIC. The asymptotic distributions of the test statistics and model selection criteria are discussed. The test statisticsand model selection criteria are …

Fields And Consumer Groups: The Layered And Overlapping Roles Of Culture, Brandon James Mcalexander

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The first essay investigates Bourdieu’s conceptualization of fields and its use in the marketing literature. It suggests that fields do not exist in isolation, but rather work together in a number of different possible configurations. Fields are reconceptualized as dominated, overlapped, unrelated, contrasted, and co-constituted, rather than completely distinct and opens a new theoretical space for interpretive researchers in marketing. The second essay is a descriptive ethnography of a local fab lab. The essay describes in rich detail the ways in which new skills are developed in a shared work environment, and contextualizes the findings using practice theory as a …

Costs And Benefits Of A Revised Foxconn Project, Timothy J. Bartik

Reports

No abstract provided.

The Value Of Grazed Corn Residue For Crop And Cattle Producers, Jay Parsons, D. D. Redfearn, Mary E. Drewnoski

Cornhusker Economics

The Western Corn Belt has historically been corn and wheat cropping systems with cattle integrated on nearby grasslands. Recent agricultural production data ranked Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, and North Dakota in the top 10 states for both corn and beef cattle production in the United States. In 2017, these four states had about 20% of the beef cow inventory in the United States with Nebraska alone having 1.9 million beef cows (USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, 2018). Forage-based livestock production is a fundamental component of these agricultural economies. However, a large quantity of grasslands in this region were converted into …

Should We Target Jobs At Distressed Places, And If So, How?, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

The Oppressive Pressures Of Globalization And Neoliberalism On Mexican Maquiladora Garment Workers, Jenna Demeter

Pursuit - The Journal of Undergraduate Research at The University of Tennessee

The international economic trends of globalization and neoliberalism have exposed and enabled the exploitation of Mexican workers, especially women in the maquiladora garment industry. During the 1950s, globalization gave rise to the new international division of labor and transnational corporations (TNCs) that have offshored labor-intensive phases of production to developing countries, many of which have pursued export-led industrialization. Export processing in Mexico was encouraged in the 1960s by Item 807 of the U.S. Tariff Code and Mexico’s Border Industrialization Program. Especially following the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s, advanced capitalist countries and International Financial Institutions foisted neoliberal structural …

Interdependencies Between Energy, The Environment, And Stakeholder Choices, Saleh Nur Muhammad Al Mamun

Economics ETDs

This dissertation contributes to the field of energy economics by expanding the knowledge of energy stakeholders’ decisions amid the interdependence of energy and environmental policies. I analyze three specific energy development decisions from multiple stakeholders’ perspectives. Chapter 2 introduces a broader state-level policymakers’ decision on renewable portfolio standards (RPS). The renewable portfolio standards is a state-mandated obligation that requires electric load-serving entities to distribute a certain percentage of electricity generated from renewable sources. I investigate the public preferences of RPS for residents in New Mexico in 2017. I find that households are willing to pay for an increase in RPS …

The Impact Of Exogenous Shocks And Heterogeneity On Demand And Preferences Environmental And Resource Goods In The Southwestern United States, Kara A. Walter

Economics ETDs

The 2018 IPCC report declared damages from climate change rapidly approaching. This dissertation consists of three empirical studies employing unique data sets and three econometric methods. First, I consider energy portfolios; I find that political affiliation is not the strongest driving factor of heterogeneity. Second, I examine the impact of observable characteristics in explaining preferences for the environment and regulation; I find opinion on climate change is an important factor and that omitting it results in changes to the significance of other factors. Finally, I study the impact of wildfires on visitation to national parks; I find that in the …

Modeling The Determinants Of Equestrian Sport Medal Shares In The Olympic Games, Steven S. Vickner Ph.D., David Hess Msba

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

Historically, equestrian sport debuted in the 1900 summer Olympic Games with individual show jumping. After a hiatus, equestrian sport resumed in 1912 with both individual and team show jumping and eventing, as well as individual dressage. Team dressage was added in 1928. With the exception of its omission from the 1960 Olympic Games, 18 medals have since been sought after by top athletes from countries around the world every four years. This study measures those factors that statistically determine the share of the 18 medals obtained by country during the last consecutive seventeen summer Olympic Games.

Nebraska Monthly Economic Indicators: July 24, 2019, Eric Thompson

Leading Economic Indicator Reports

The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) 1 fell by 0.29% during June of 2019. The decline in the LEI-N, which is designed to predict economic activity six months into the future, implies slowing economic growth in Nebraska towards the end of 2019. The leading indicator declined due to an increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance and a drop in both airport passenger enplanements and manufacturing hours. In addition, business expectations, which had been strong throughout the year, moderated during June. Respondents to the June Survey of Nebraska Business reported plans for only a modest increase in employment at …

2019 Nebraska Property Tax Issues, J. David Aiken

Cornhusker Economics

Nebraska property taxes are the tenth highest in the United States, sales taxes are the ninth lowest, and both income taxes and total state taxes are in the middle. Property taxes account for 38% of total state and local tax collections in Nebraska, the highest of any tax. Sales taxes are 29% of total tax collections, and income taxes are 26%. If property taxes, sales taxes and income taxes were equalized as sources of state and local revenue, property taxes would need to be reduced over $600 million.

Sixty percent of property taxes go to K-12 education funding. Nebraska state …