Economics Commons^™

The Future Development Of Reits In China, Jia Sun

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is a type of trust fund or corporation that pools the funds of a large number of investors by issuing a certificate of income and invest the raised funds in real estate projects that are managed by a specialized investment institution. The real estate investment risk is moderate, and the rent is stable, but the capital threshold is high, and it is difficult for small and medium investors to enter the market. The invention of REITs aims to solve this problem, through the collection of funds, so that small and medium investors can enter the …

An Ai Approach To Measuring Financial Risk, Lining Yu, Wolfgang Karl Hardle, Lukas Borke, Thijs Benschop

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

AI artificial intelligence brings about new quantitative techniques to assess the state of an economy. Here, we describe a new measure for systemic risk: the Financial Risk Meter (FRM). This measure is based on the penalization parameter (λ" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: inline; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal; font-size: 18px; text-indent: 0px; text-align: left; text-transform: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; padding: 0px; margin: 0px; position: relative;">λλ) of a linear quantile lasso regression. The FRM is calculated by taking the average …

Oil Price Shocks, Fuel Subsidies And Macroeconomic (In)Stability In Nigeria, Babatunde S. Omotosho

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of oil price shocks and the extant fuel subsidy regime for Nigeria. To do this, we develop and estimate a New-Keynesian DSGE model that accounts for pass-through effect of international oil price into the retail price of fuel. Our results show that oil price shocks generate significant and persistent impacts on output, accounting for about 22 percent of its variations up to the fourth year. Under our benchmark model (i.e. with fuel subsidies), we show that a negative oil price shock contracts aggregate GDP, boosts non-oil GDP, increases headline inflation, and depreciates the exchange …

External Shocks And Business Cycle Fluctuations In Oil-Exporting Small Open Economies: The Case Of Nigeria, Sunday Oladunni

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study employs a sign-restricted Bayesian structural vector autoregressive (BSVAR) model to analyse how global demand, oil price and the US monetary policy shocks impact the Nigerian business cycle. The objective is to uncover the dominant external drivers of the business cycle in Nigeria. Results show that global demand and oil price shocks are the principal foreign drivers of the Nigerian business cycle. The global demand shock elicits the strongest responses from output growth and inflation; while oil price shock impacts the terms-of-trade and interest rate the most. The historical contributions of the global demand and oil price shocks to …

A Text Mining Analysis Of Central Bank Monetary Policy Communication In Nigeria, Mohammed M, Tumala, Babatunde S. Omotosho

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper employs text-mining techniques to analyse the communication strategy of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) during the period 20042019. Since the policy communique released after each meeting of the CBN’s monetary policy committee (MPC) represents an important tool of central bank communication, we construct a corpus based on 87 policy communiques with a total of 123, 353 words. Having processed the textual data into a form suitable for analysis, we examined the readability, sentiments, and topics of the policy documents. While the CBN’s communication has increased substantially over the years, implying increased monetary policy transparency; the computed Coleman …

Inflation Dynamics And Exchange Rate Pass-Through In Nigeria: Evidence From Augmented Nonlinear New Keynesian Philips Curve, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper estimates a nonlinear augmented New Keynesian Philips Curve for Nigeria using the Smooth Transition Regression model for the period 1995Q1 to 2018Q2. The empirical evidence reveals the existence of two inflation regimes during the period under review. Food inflation, energy inflation, firms’ marginal cost, and imported inflation account for most of the changes in the prices of composite consumers’ basket in low exchange rate depreciation regime. However, the exchange rate solely explains price changes in the composite consumers’ basket when inflation switches to high regime. Similarly, the results show that regime change in inflation is largely caused by …

The Growth-Differential Effects Of Domestic Investment And Foreign Direct Investment In Africa, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gbatsoron Anjande, Joseph Fefa, Bridget N. Mile

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper employs dynamic panel models; Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Mean Group (MG) estimators to assess the growth-differential effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Domestic Investment (DI) among 41 selected African countries from 1970 to 2017. The result of Hausman test shows that PMG estimator is preferred. The study found that FDI and DI are important grease for growth of African countries in the long-run. The study also found that inflows of FDI crowds-in DI in Africa and that there is significant difference in the growth effects of foreign direct investment and domestic investment while the joint effects …

Measuring Dynamic Return And Volatility Connectedness Among Nigerian Financial Markets, Elias A. Udeaja

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study employs the connectedness measure of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) to examine the intensity of connectedness among the Nigerian financial markets for the period January 2000 to December 2018. The study used all shares index, Treasury bill rate and Naira/USD official exchange rate to measure stock market, money market and exchange rate market, respectively. The study found connectedness among the Nigerian financial markets to be highly time-varying and appear to be higher during the period of high depreciation of the naira which coincides with the period of falling oil prices and domestic economic meltdown of 2014 and 2016, …

The Rise Of Anti-Immigration Populist Radical Right Parties: The Effect Of The Syrian Conflict On Refugee Resettlement And Migration Policies In Germany And Austria, Sara Kouchehbagh

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The effects of Syrian migration in Europe have revolutionized refugee resettlement globally. Most immigration and refugee problems have historically been settled similarly post WWII, however, Syria is the largest refugee crisis since WWII. It is important to learn how to respond to future conflicts with displacement and resettlement affecting Western countries that are unprepared to respond to a conflict of such magnitude. This thesis will compare previous conflicts and the Syrian conflict, while highlighting the resilient political momentum of reactionary new political groups in European states, particularly Germany and Austria.

The research and results from this study will include data …

Country Roads, Take Me Away: Coal Mining And Migration In West Virginia, 1971-2010, James J. Slaughter

Honors Theses

West Virginia’s population peaked in 1950. Parallel to this, employment in the coal mining industry peaked in 1948. Popular discourse links these two trends together. It is suggested that the decline of the coal mining industry, which was previously a stable source of employment, has led West Virginians to leave the state searching for better job opportunities elsewhere. This thesis uses first-difference regression models to analyze the relationship between lagged year-to-year changes in coal-mining employment and year-to-year changes in net-migration to and from West Virginia. A positive and statistically significant relationship is found between 1-year lagged changes in coal mining …

Examining Racial & Ethnic Disparities In The Reach Of The Medicare Shared Savings Program, Lindsey Arneson

Capstone Experience: Master of Public Health

It is important to understand the quality of health care for racial and ethnic minorities covered under the largest U.S. government-run insurance program, Medicare, because the demographics of the U.S. are becoming older and more diverse. A new value-based program under Medicare is the Shared Savings Program (MSSP), which creates incentives to improve care quality and health outcomes for Medicare beneficiaries with a specific focus on increasing the provision of preventive care services. This capstone project aims to understand the representation of racial/ethnic minority Medicare beneficiaries, namely African Americans/Blacks and Hispanics/Latinxs, that receive care from providers or facilities (i.e., Accountable …

Using Behavior Economic Nudges To Facilitate Client Follow-Through In Financial Coaching, Charlene Hurst

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

While benevolence-based programs have been a large part of meeting immediate financial needs of the poor, they lack the relational aspect needed to facilitate long-term behavior change. Recently many social service organizations have adopted financial coaching as a promising replacement for benevolence programming. The field of coaching has dealt with its own challenges. Most coaching practitioners surveyed in 2016 and 2019 acknowledged lack of client follow-through as their number one challenge. Behavior economics offered nudges as a solution. Nudges are cues placed within the physical environment to prod clients toward behavior change. A quantitative field study was conducted to evaluate …

The Unexpected Activeness Of Passive Investors: A Worldwide Analysis Of Etfs, Si Cheng, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The global ETF industry provides more complicated investment vehicles than low-cost index trackers. Instead, we find that the real investments of ETFs may deviate from their benchmarks to leverage informational advantages (which leads to a surprising stock-selection ability) and to help affiliated OEFs through cross-trading. These effects are more prevalent in ETFs domiciled in Europe. Moreover, ETF flows seem to respond to additional risk. These results have important normative implications for consumer protection and financial stability. (JEL G20)

Do Real Estate Agents Have Information Advantages In Housing Markets?, Sumit Agarwal, Jia He, Tien Foo Sing, Changcheng Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We use a large housing transaction data set in Singapore to study whether real estate agents use information advantages to buy houses at bargain prices. Agents bought their own houses at prices that are 2.54% lower than comparable houses bought by other buyers. Consistent with information asymmetries, agent buyers have more information advantages in less informative environments, and agent buyers are more likely to buy houses from agent sellers. Agent discounts are from both “cherry picking” and bargaining power, and bargaining power contributes more to the agent discounts. Agents’ advantage consists in their information of available houses and previous purchase …

Harnessing The Power Of Social Incentives To Curb Shirking In Teams, Brice Corgnet, Brian C. Gunia, Roberto Hernán González

ESI Working Papers

We study several solutions to shirking in teams that trigger social incentives by reshaping the workplace social context. Using an experimental design, we manipulate social pressure at work by varying the type of workplace monitoring and the extent to which employees engage in social interaction. This design allows us to assess the effectiveness as well as the popularity of each solution. Despite similar effectiveness in boosting productivity across solutions, only organizational systems involving social interaction (via chat) were at least as popular as a baseline treatment. This suggests that any solution based on promoting social interaction is more likely to …

News-Driven Expectations And Volatility Clustering, Sabiou M. Inoua

ESI Working Papers

Financial volatility obeys two well-established empirical properties: it is fat-tailed (power-law distributed) and it tends to be clustered in time. Many interesting models have been proposed to account for these regularities, notably agent-based computational models, which typically invoke complicated mechanisms, however. It can be shown that trend-following speculation generates the power law in an intrinsic way. But this model cannot exaplain clustered volatility. This paper extends the model and offers a simple explanation for clustered volatility: the impact of exogenous news on traders’ expectations. Owing to the famous no-trade results, rational expectations, the dominant model of news-driven expectations, is hard …

The Effects Of Fluctuations In Federal Revenue Sharing Payments Made To Rural Counties On School District Budgets, Camille Harmer

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Federal revenue sharing programs aim to make up lost tax revenue to counties that contain federal land, as counties do not receive any property tax revenue from publicly owned lands. This may have a significant impact on rural school districts with a limited tax base, as most funding for public education comes from property tax revenue. My analysis seeks to determine the full impact of certain federal revenue sharing payments (paid out by the U.S. Forest Service) on school districts in counties that contain U.S. Forest Service land. My analysis shows that the payments have little impact on school district …

Using A Discrete Choice Experiment To Estimate Willingness To Pay For Location Based Housing Attributes, Kristopher C. Toll

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

In 1993, a travel study was conducted along the Wasatch front in Utah (Research Systems Group INC, 2013). The main purpose of this study was to assess travel behavior to understand the needs for future growth in Utah. Since then, the Research Service Group (RSG), conducted a new study in 2012 to understand current travel preferences in Utah. This survey, called the Residential Choice Stated Preference survey, asked respondents to make ten choice comparisons between two hypothetical homes. Each home in the choice comparison was described by different attributes, those attributes that were used are, type of neighborhood, distance from …

Sieve Estimation Of Time-Varying Panel Data Models With Latent Structures, Liangjun Su, Xia Wang, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a heterogeneous time-varying panel data model with a latent group structure that allows the coefficients to vary over both individuals and time. We assume that the coefficients change smoothly over time and form different unobserved groups. When treated as smooth functions of time, the individual functional coefficients are heterogeneous across groups but homogeneous within a group. We propose a penalized-sieve-estimation-based classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) procedure to identify the individuals’ membership and to estimate the group-specific functional coefficients in a single step. The classification exhibits the desirable property of uniform consistency. The C-Lasso estimators and their post-Lasso versions achieve the oracle …

The Role Of Career And Wage Incentives In Labor Productivity: Evidence From A Two-Stage Field Experiment In Malawi, Hyuncheol Kim, Seonghoon Kim, Thomas Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study how career and wage incentives affect labor productivity through self-selection and incentive effect channels using a two-stage field experiment in Malawi. First, recent secondary school graduates were hired with either career or wage incentives. After employment, a half of workers with career incentives randomly received wage incentives, and a half of workers with wage incentives randomly received career incentives. Career incentives attract higher-performing workers than wage incentives, but do not increase productivity conditional on selection. Wage incentives increase productivity for those recruited through career incentives. Observable characteristics are limited in explaining selection effects of entry-level workers.

Growth Effects Of Additive And Multiplicative Robots Alongside Conventional Machines, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the effects of introducing two different types of robots (additive and multiplicative) in an infinitely lived one-sector aggregative model with malleable capital on wages. The wage effects of these two polar cases are dramatically different. Given malleable capital that can be retrofitted for use either as conventional machines or as robots, we show that when it is profitable for firms to adopt additive robots in the production process, the real wage drops on impact and remains permanently at the lower level even as total malleable capital accumulates. However, when multiplicative robots are adopted, we show that while the …

Detecting Financial Collapse And Ballooning Sovereign Risk, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sp Shi

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a new model for capturing discontinuities in the underlying financial environment that can lead to abrupt falls, but not necessarily sustained monotonic falls, in asset prices. This notion of price dynamics is consistent with existing understanding of market crashes, which allows for a mix of market responses that are not universally negative. The model may be interpreted as a martingale composed with a randomized drift process that is designed to capture various asymmetric drivers of market sentiment. In particular, the model is capable of generating realistic patterns of price meltdowns and bond yield inflations that constitute major …

Finance And Ideology: The Firm-Level Channels, Hao Liang, Rong Wang, Haikun Zhu

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We provide firm-level evidence on how politicians’ ideologies affect economic outcomes and financial development by exploring a unique setting of ideological discontinuity in China from Maoism to Dengism around 1978. We find the ideological exposure during a politician’s early adulthood has an enduring effect on contemporary firm and city policies. Firms governed by “Mao’s mayors” have more stakeholder spending, lower pay inequality, and less internationalization than those governed by Deng’s. Further evidence suggests politicians’ ideology may affect economic activities through channels other than economic policy. Selection bias, endogenous matching and mayor age effect are unlikely to drive our results.

Long-Term Index Fund Ownership And Stock Returns, Ekkehart Boehmer, Wanshan Song, Ashish Tiwari, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We examine the implications of stock ownership by index funds for shareholder value. Consistent with recent findings that stock ownership by passive funds contributes to improved governance, we document a strong positive relation between the duration of passive fund holdings and subsequent stock performance. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms with recent poor performance, and for smaller firms and firms with higher allocation weights in passive funds’ portfolios. Our results support the view that index funds, although passive in their investment decisions, successfully contribute to long-term value creation by actively engaging with firms on matters of governance.

Uniform Inference In Panel Autoregression, John C. Chao, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers estimation and inference concerning the autoregressive coefficient (rho) in a panel autoregression for which the degree of persistence in the time dimension is unknown. Our main objective is to construct confidence intervals for rho that are asymptotically valid, having asymptotic coverage probability at least that of the nominal level uniformly over the parameter space. The starting point for our confidence procedure is the estimating equation of the Anderson-Hsiao (AH) IV procedure. It is well known that the AH IV estimation suffers from weak instrumentation when rho is near unity. But it is not so well known that …

Har Testing For Spurious Regression In Trend, Peter C. B. Phillips, Xiaohu Wang, Yonghui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The usual t test, the t test based on heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) covariance matrix estimators, and the heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) test are three statistics that are widely used in applied econometric work. The use of these significance tests in trend regression is of particular interest given the potential for spurious relationships in trend formulations. Following a longstanding tradition in the spurious regression literature, this paper investigates the asymptotic and finite sample properties of these test statistics in several spurious regression contexts, including regression of stochastic trends on time polynomials and regressions among independent random walks. Concordant …

Cross-Border Shopping And Employment Patterns In The Southwestern United States, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke

Departmental Papers (E & F)

Price differentials, among other factors, persuade many residents of Northern Mexico to shop in the Southwestern United States border region. Employment patterns in the latter region are studied using a set of control variables and two indicators that are likely to influence crossborder shopping patterns. The first is a real exchange rate index, which captures changes in relative prices in the United States and Mexico. The second is real per capita gross state product in Mexican states adjacent to the international boundary. Both of these variables are found to impact retail and restaurant employment in the United States border zone, …

The Spillover Effect Of Marketing Discolored Beef On Consumer Preferences For Nondiscolored Beef, Ryan Feuz, F. Bailey Norwood, Ranjith Ramanathan

Applied Economics Faculty Publications

Consumers prefer bright, cherry-red retail beef. Retailers often mark down the price of discolored beef for quick sale. However, following this practice could result in a net loss of revenue if consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for nondiscolored beef is negatively affected by the presence of discolored beef in the consumer choice set. Through a hypothetical online survey and a controlled in-person experiment, we determine that marketing discolored beef together with nondiscolored beef increases most consumers’ evaluation of, but not their WTP for, nondiscolored beef.

Price Signaling And Bargain Hunting In Markets With Partially Informed Populations, Mark Schneider, Daniel Graydon Stephenson

ESI Working Papers

Classical studies of asymmetric information focus on situations where only one side of a market is informed. This study experimentally investigates a more general case where some sellers are informed and some buyers are informed. We establish the existence of semiseparating perfect Bayesian equilibria where prices serve as informative signals of quality to uninformed buyers, while informed buyers can often leverage their informational advantage by purchasing high quality items from uninformed sellers at bargain prices. These models provide a rational foundation for the co-existence of bargains, price signaling, and Pareto efficiency in markets with asymmetric information. We test these theoretical …

The Relationship Between College Expansion And Income Inequality, Aidan J. Wang

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper examines the relationship between college expansion and income inequality within a country. Researchers have identified a “composition effect,” “compression effect,” and “dispersion effect.” However, the shape and magnitude of the net relationship remains unclear. I construct a country panel using inequality data from the World Inequality Database and college share data from Barro and Lee. From 0% to 27% college share, the bottom 50% and middle 40% income shares decrease linearly while the top 10% income share increases linearly. The trend shape holds for a sample of only OECD countries, but the magnitude changes, suggesting country-specific factors matter.