Economics Commons^™

Geographical Scale, Industrial Diversity And Regional Economic Stability, Jing Chen

Regional Research Institute Working Papers

The empirical relationship between economic diversity and economic stability varies when it is measured at dfferent geographical scales. This paper evaluates the role of geographical scales in assessing this diversity-stability relationship among counties, states, Economic Areas (EAs), metropolitan counties and metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the contiguous U.S. When choosing geographical units to analyze regional economic structure, it is necessary that the geographical units be large enough in population and employment to quantify effectively the regional economic structure. In addition, this paper proposes that geographical units also should be functionally aggregated regions as they better represent spatial interactions than formal …

Regulation And Energy Poverty In The United States, Michael C. Jensen

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Energy poverty is a topic often neglected in the discussion about global climate change. Apocalyptic prophecies about the negative future effects of climate change ignore the suffering of people around the globe whose lives could be drastically improved with access to reliable sources of energy. Though energy poverty from a global perspective is much more serious than energy poverty from a domestic perspective, high home energy bills are a serious cause for concern for many Americans.

This research examines the relationship between regulation, the prices of electricity and natural gas, and the household energy burden, which is the ratio of …

Product Life-Cycle: New Products, Quality, Substitutes And Advertising In The Theatrical Movie Markets, Jayendra S. Gokhale, Wesley Wilson

Publications

In the market for US theatrical movies, there are a set of products (movies), and over time, new products appear and existing products disappear. We develop and estimate a model of the product cycle for movies and the decay of products over time to examine the effect of product quality, production cost, advertising and substitutes on the movie life cycle. Intuitively, new products should have a strong negative effect on the probability of survival of existing movies. The effect, however, is heterogeneously present only for the substitutes from some types (genres). While it is expected that good-quality movies tend to …

Random Coefficient Continuous Systems: Testing For Extreme Sample Path Behaviour, Yubo Tao, Peter C.B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies a continuous time dynamic system with a random persistence parameter. The exact discrete time representation is obtained and related to several discrete time random coefficient models currently in the literature. The model distinguishes various forms of unstable and explosive behaviour according to specific regions of the parameter space that open up the potential for testing these forms of extreme behaviour. A two-stage approach that employs realized volatility is proposed for the continuous system estimation, asymptotic theory is developed, and test statistics to identify the different forms of extreme sample path behaviour are proposed. Simulations show that the …

Hybrid Stochastic Local Unit Roots, Offer Lieberman, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Two approaches have dominated formulations designed to capture small departures from unit root autoregressions. The first involves deterministic departures that include local-to-unity (LUR) and mildly (or moderately) integrated (MI) specifications where departures shrink to zero as the sample size n→∞. The second approach allows for stochastic departures from unity, leading to stochastic unit root (STUR) specifications. This paper introduces a hybrid local stochastic unit root (LSTUR) specification that has both LUR and STUR components and allows for endogeneity in the time varying coefficient that introduces structural elements to the autoregression. This hybrid model generates trajectories that, upon normalization, have non-linear …

Continuous Workout Mortgages: Efficient Pricing And Systemic Implications, Robert J. Shiller, Rafal M. Wojakowski, M. Shahid Ebrahim, Mark B. Shackleton

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies the Continuous Workout Mortgage (CWM), a two in one product: a fixed rate home loan coupled with negative equity insurance, to advocate its viability in mitigating financial fragility. In order to tackle the many issues that CWMs embrace, we perform a range of tasks. We optimally price CWMs and take a systemic market-based approach, stipulating that mortgage values and payments should be linked to housing prices and adjusted downward to prevent negative equity. We illustrate that amortizing CWMs can be the efficient home financing choice for many households. We price CWMs as American option style, defaulting debt …

Finite-Sample Optimal Estimation And Inference On Average Treatment Effects Under Unconfoundedness, Timothy B. Armstrong, Michal Kolesár

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider estimation and inference on average treatment effects under unconfoundedness conditional on the realizations of the treatment variable and covariates. We derive finite-sample optimal estimators and confidence intervals (CIs) under the assumption of normal errors when the conditional mean of the outcome variable is constrained only by nonparametric smoothness and/or shape restrictions. When the conditional mean is restricted to be Lipschitz with a large enough bound on the Lipschitz constant, we show that the optimal estimator reduces to a matching estimator with the number of matches set to one. In contrast to conventional CIs, our CIs use a larger …

Finite-Sample Optimal Estimation And Inference On Average Treatment Effects Under Unconfoundedness, Timothy B. Armstrong, Michal Kolesár

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider estimation and inference on average treatment effects under unconfoundedness conditional on the realizations of the treatment variable and covariates. Given nonparametric smoothness and/or shape restrictions on the conditional mean of the outcome variable, we derive estimators and confidence intervals (CIs) that are optimal infinite samples when the regression errors are normal with known variance. In contrast to conventional CIs, our CIs use a larger critical value that explicitly takes into account the potential bias of the estimator. When the error distribution is unknown, feasible versions of our CIs are valid asymptotically, even when √n-inference is not possible due …

Monetary Policy Regime Change And Regional Inflation Dynamics: Looking Through The Lens Of Sector-Level Data For Korea, Chi Young Choi, Joo Yong Lee, Róisín O'Sullivan

Economics: Faculty Publications

This paper explores the impact of the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) on the dynamics of city-level inflation in Korea using both aggregate and sector-level data. When looking at aggregate regional inflation, we find that the mean, volatility and persistence fell in all cities in the wake of the monetary policy regime change, consistent with other evidence in the literature. Delving more deeply into the disaggregate data reveals additional insights however. For most of the changes we observe in the dynamics of regional inflation, we find that the aggregate effects are being driven primarily by sectors that fall into the …

Paid Family And Medical Leave: Cost And Coverage Estimates Of Three Choices In Massachusetts, Policy Brief, Randy Albelda, Alan Clayton-Matthews

Publications from the Center for Women in Politics and Public Policy

This policy brief explores the costs and coverage of three proposed paid family and medical leave programs for Massachusetts. These are House Bill 2172, Senate Bill 1048, and 2018 Initiative Petition C. Each of these proposed programs establishes a contributory fund paid by employers and employees, to be used for eligible workers when they are out of work for their own serious health condition or that of a family member, for pregnancy, or to bond with a new child. The medical leaves considered are for own health reasons, including those related to pregnancy. Family leaves are for bonding with a …

Review Of "Loan Sharks: The Birth Of Predatory Lending" By C. R. Geisst, John P. Caskey

Economics Faculty Works

No abstract provided.

A Comparative Analysis Of Unemployment Insurance Financing Methods, Wayne Vroman, Elaine Maag, Christopher J. O'Leary, Stephen A. Woodbury

External Papers and Reports

No abstract provided.

The Effect Of Health Care Entrepreneurship On Local Health: The Case Of Medexpress In Appalachia, Amir Borges Ferreira Neto, Joshua C. Hall

Regional Research Institute Working Papers

We test the hypothesis that the opening of an Urgent Care Center (UCC) has positive impacts on the local community. There are several mechanisms through which a UCC can have an impact: lower health care costs, emergency room decongestion, and improved access to medical information. We examine the entry of MedExpress into Appalachian counties between 2001 and 2013. Employing data from Health Resources Files, which provides information for all counties for specific years, we use Propensity Score Matching to create a year 2000 control group for the counties “treated” by MedExpress entry beginning in 2001. We then employ a standard …

Revenue And Distributional Impact Analysis Of Indonesian Personal Income Tax Reform In 2008, Bimo Wijayanto, Yogi Vidyattama

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Since 1983, Indonesian tax policy has been the subject of ongoing reforms in order to replace the old colonial tax arrangements, reduce income dependency from oil and gas, decrease the government's foreign debt and maintain its fiscal sustainability. Nevertheless, after 25 years of reform, actual Indonesian tax performance is still far from what might have been expected as Indonesia have one of the lowest total tax ratios among the ASEAN countries. This research show that the most recent changes put in place may have reduced potential tax revenue from personal income but an increase in the compliance rate.

Determinants Of Port Performance - Case Study Of 4 Main Ports In Indonesia (2005-2015), Atika Aqmarina

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Port plays significant role in supporting economic growth of a country. This study aims to analyze the determinant of port performance in Indonesia. In this research, the ports selected are four main ports in Indonesia which are Port of Belawan, Port of Tanjung Priok, Port of Tanjung Perak, and Makassar. These ports are designed as the hub ports in the national sea transport system of the country. The study used pooled OLS as the methodology to analyze the determinant. The result of this studies shows that total traffic is not influenced by operating surplus per ton, whereas the rest of …

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 1, Number12, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Adam G. Walke, Omar Solís, Esmeralda Muñiz

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Let’S Put Demography Back Into Economics: Population Pyramids In Excel, Humberto Barreto

Economics and Management Faculty publications

The economics curriculum today does not emphasize the study of population. This needs to change immediately because we are in the midst of another demographic sea change, slamming on the brakes right after a rapid acceleration during the last half of the 20th century. Instead of glibly tossing a dependency ratio onto a slide, this paper offers an easy way to improve demographic literacy using population pyramids. Simulation is used to explain the pyramid and its dynamic properties, and then real‐world data are presented. Microsoft Excel’s ability to act as a browser and download data with a single click of …

Managing Herbicide Resistance: Listening To The Perspectives Of The Practitioners, Jill Schroeder, David Shaw, Michael Barrett, Harold Coble, Amy Asmus, Raymond Jussaume, David E. Ervin

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

No abstract provided.

Nowcasting Philippine Economic Growth Using Midas Regression Modeling, Cesar C. Rufino

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Among the most anticipated data releases of the Philippine statistical system is the quarterly real gross domestic product. This all-important variable provides the basis for deriving the economic growth performance of the country on a year-on-year basis. Official publication of this statistics, however, comes at a significant delay of up to two months, upsetting the planning function of various economic stakeholders. Under this backdrop, data scientists coined the term “nowcasting,” which refers to the prediction of the present, the very near future, and the very recent past, based on information provided by available data that are sampled at higher frequencies …

Metropolitan Report - December 2017, Division Of Business And Economic Research, College Of Business Administration, University Of New Orleans

UNO Metropolitan Report (1986-2017)

No abstract provided.

Tourism And Economic Development In Asean 1998-2013, Umara Ardra, Berly Martawardaya

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Many countries support government policies to encourage tourism sector, including ASEAN countries, due to an assumption that tourism contributes positively to GDP and poverty reduction. This study investigates that assumption, as well as the correlation between tourism and HDI, by applying panel data regression to eight ASEAN countries (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Laos Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam,) during 1998-2013. We found that the number of international tourist arrivals as a proxy variable for tourism have a significant and positive correlation with poverty reduction. Tourism is also proven to increase GDP per capita (albeit in a smaller magnitude) and …

Mapping Persons With Disabilities (Pwds) In Indonesia Labor Market, Dr. Alin Halimatussadiah, Chaikal Nuryakin

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The empowerment of Persons with Disabilities (PWD) has recently attracted the attention of the Indonesian government. Several initiatives have been made to empower their life, especially the establishment of Act No. 8/2016 which enhances their right to inclusive economic activities. This study aims to map PWD in Indonesian labor market. Specifically, it analyzes the characteristics of employed and unemployed PWD. It explored Labor Force Survey (Sakernas), which began to concern on disability issue in 2016. The results show that PWD prevalence varies highly among provinces led by West Sumatera, East Nusa Tenggara, and South Sulawesi and that PWD has lower …

Are Teacher Pensions "Hazardous" For Schools?, Patten Priestley Mahler

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

I use a detailed panel of data and a unique modeling specification to explore how public schoolteachers respond to the incentives embedded in North Carolina’s retirement system. Like most public-sector retirement plans, North Carolina’s teacher pension implicitly encourages teachers to continue working until they are eligible for their pension benefits, and then leave soon afterward. I find that teachers with higher levels of quality, as measured by a teacher’s value-added to her students’ achievement test scores, are more responsive to the “pull” of teacher pensions. Younger teachers, those with higher salaries, and nonwhite teachers are also more likely to stay …

Bank Lending Channel And Changing Credit Standards In The Residential Mortgage Market, Salman Tahsin

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

My dissertation examines the relationship between bank conditions and the residential mortgage market. The first essay investigates the effect of bank distress on the residential mortgage market during the 2007-09 financial crisis. We use the county-aggregated change in the ratio of jumbo to nonjumbo mortgage acceptance rate as an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity between bank distress and county economic conditions. The median decrease in the instrumental variable explains an additional 1.5 percentage point decline in county home prices and a 20 basis point rise in the county unemployment rate, which represent 15% and 5%, respectively, of their median …

Performance Evaluation And Risk Management: Time Series Bootstrap Analysis Of The Mutual Funds And Banking Sectors, Lifa Huang

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999, also known as the Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act (“Act”), repealed a regulatory proscription in the Glass–Steagall Act of 1933 that prohibited commercial bank holding companies (BHCs) from underwriting most bonds, equities, and insurance policies. After the passage of the Act in November 1999, BHCs that converted to financial holding companies (FHCs) were allowed to engage in securities underwriting without restrictions. The first paper examines whether the removal of barriers to securities underwriting had an adverse impact on the overall stability of the financial sector, and thereby, contributed indirectly to the financial crisis of 2008. The …

Types And Severities Of Export Barriers: Evidence From Indonesian Smes, Mohamad Revindo

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are more constrained to export than their large counterparts and SMEs' limited participation in export market is more prevalent in developing than in developed countries. Extant literature suggests that SMEs encounter a set of export inhibiting factors distinct to those faced by large firms and therefore accurate identification of export barriers is crucial in fostering SMEs export. This study investigates the export barriers faced by Indonesian SMEs. The evidences were collected from 271 exporting SMEs and 226 non-exporting SMEs in seven provinces in Jawa, Madura and Bali regions. The results show that the types and …

The Impact Of Private Sector Credit On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Ganiyu B.A. Amoo, Matthew I. Eboreime, Yusuf Adamu, Maximillian C. Belonwu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper determines empirically the local conditions and policy environment that influence the absorptive capacity of credit in the Nigerian economy for the period 1993:Q1 to 2013:Q4 using fully modified least squares. Findings show that credit is growth-enhancing, even when trade openness, monetary policy, investment climate and infrastructure are low. Also, the composite local condition index analysis revealed that private sector credit increased economic growth when domestic or local conditions were favourable and the absorptive capacity of the domestic economy for credit was estimated at 29% of the GDP in 2013. These results suggest that there is ample room for …

Forecasting The Volatilities Of The Nigeria Stock Market Prices, Sikiru O. Ibrahim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The objective of this work is to assess and forecast the volatilities of prices on the Nigeria Stock Exchange. The ARCH family (ARCH, GARCH, TGARCH, EGARCH and PGARCH) and ARIMA models are used to assess and forecast volatilities in prices on the Nigeria stock market. The EGARCH model is found to be the most efficient for forecasting volatilities and has the capability to show the asymmetric effect. The assessment of volatilities in prices for 1985 to 2014 shows clustering, over the years. The forecasting performance shows the volatility in the Nigeria stock market to be on the increase for the …

Determinants Of Fdi And Fpi Volatility: An E-Garch Approach, Philip I. Nwosa, Omolade Adeleke

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examined the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) volatility in Nigeria. The study used annual data covering the periods 1986 to 2016 and the EGARCH approach was employed. The study observed that trade openness and world GDP were the significant determinants of FDI volatility, while domestic interest rate and stock market capitalization were significant determinants of FPI volatility in Nigeria. Other variables were insignificant in influencing volatility in FDI and FPI. Consequently, the study recommends the need for the prudent management of these determinants (with particular reference to indigenous variables) to ensure reduced …

Determinants Of Financial Inclusion In Sub-Saharan Africa Countries: Does Institutional Infrastructure Matter?, Kazeem B. Ajide

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the determinants of financial inclusion by specially accounting for the role of institutions in a panel of eighteen (18) subSaharan Africa (SSA) countries using a dynamic system of Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM). The emanated findings consistently stress the importance of institutions together with other control variables like GDP per capita, inflation, bank concentration and z-score as key drivers of FI. In the final analysis, the paper emphasizes the importance of using dimension by dimension indicators of governance as well as a composite governance index instead of relying solely on the latter as a basis of informing …