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2016

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Articles 91 - 120 of 1616

Full-Text Articles in Economics

Structural Inference From Reduced Forms With Many Instruments, Peter C.B. Phillips, Wayne Yuan Gao Dec 2016

Structural Inference From Reduced Forms With Many Instruments, Peter C.B. Phillips, Wayne Yuan Gao

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper develops exact finite sample and asymptotic distributions for structural equation tests based on partially restricted reduced form estimates. Particular attention is given to models with large numbers of instruments, wherein the use of partially restricted reduced form estimates is shown to be especially advantageous in statistical testing even in cases of uniformly weak instruments and reduced forms. Comparisons are made with methods based on unrestricted reduced forms, and numerical computations showing finite sample performance of the tests are reported. Some new results are obtained on inequalities between noncentral chi-squared distributions with different degrees of freedom that assist in …

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Homogeneity Pursuit In Panel Data Models: Theory And Applications, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liangjun Su, Wuyi Wang Dec 2016

Homogeneity Pursuit In Panel Data Models: Theory And Applications, Peter C.B. Phillips, Liangjun Su, Wuyi Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies estimation of a panel data model with latent structures where individuals can be classified into different groups where slope parameters are homogeneous within the same group but heterogeneous across groups. To identify the unknown group structure of vector parameters, we design an algorithm called Panel-CARDS which is a systematic extension of the CARDS procedure proposed by Ke, Fan, and Wu (2015) in a cross section framework. The extension addresses the problem of comparing vector coefficients in a panel model for homogeneity and introduces a new concept of controlled classification of multidimensional quantities called the segmentation net. We …

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Optimal Auction Design In A Common Value Model, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris Dec 2016

Optimal Auction Design In A Common Value Model, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study auction design when bidders have a pure common value equal to the maximum of their independent signals. In the revenue maximizing mechanism, each bidder makes a payment that is independent of his signal and the allocation discriminates in favor of bidders with lower signals. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition under which the optimal mechanism reduces to a posted price under which all bidders are equally likely to get the good. This model of pure common values can equivalently be interpreted as model of resale: the bidders have independent private values at the auction stage, and the …

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Informationally Robust Optimal Auction Design, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris Dec 2016

Informationally Robust Optimal Auction Design, Dirk Bergemann, Benjamin Brooks, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A single unit of a good is to be sold by auction to one of two buyers. The good has either a high value or a low value, with known prior probabilities. The designer of the auction knows the prior over values but is uncertain about the correct model of the buyers’ beliefs. The designer evaluates a given auction design by the lowest expected revenue that would be generated across all models of buyers’ information that are consistent with the common prior and across all Bayesian equilibria. An optimal auction for such a seller is constructed, as is a worst-case …

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Pass-Through And The Prediction Of Merger Price Effects, N. H. Miller, Marc Remer, C. Ryan, G. Sheu Dec 2016

Pass-Through And The Prediction Of Merger Price Effects, N. H. Miller, Marc Remer, C. Ryan, G. Sheu

Economics Faculty Works

We use Monte Carlo experiments to study how pass-through can improve merger price predictions, focusing on the first order approximation (FOA) proposed in Jaffe and Weyl [2013]. FOA addresses the functional form misspecification that can exist in standard merger simulations. We find that the predictions of FOA are tightly distributed around the true price effects if pass-through is precise, but that measurement error in pass-through diminishes accuracy. As a comparison to FOA, we also study a methodology that uses pass-through to select among functional forms for use in simulation. This alternative also increases accuracy relative to standard merger simulation and …

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An Empirical Study Of Earnings Of Immigrants And Native-Born Americans In The U.S. Labor Market Given Different Levels Of Educational Attainment, Yuli P. Gomez Bravo Dec 2016

An Empirical Study Of Earnings Of Immigrants And Native-Born Americans In The U.S. Labor Market Given Different Levels Of Educational Attainment, Yuli P. Gomez Bravo

Applied Economics Theses

This paper will compare the Lifetime wage earnings of immigrants and native-born citizens in the U.S. for the years 2000-2010 according to educational attainment using cross-sectional data. The data obtained through IPUMS-CPS Integrated Public Use of Microdata Series, University of Minnesota. The findings of investment in Human Capital of Mincer (1958), the Immigrants earnings distribution of Chiswick and Miller (2006), the Pareto’s law of income distribution, and the immigrants investment in human capital model by Duleep and Regets (1999) are the theoretical basis in which this study will be ruled. The empirical evidence suggests that immigrants who invest in education …

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Building Bridges: A Comparative Study Of Women Working In The Construction Industry In India And The Us, Susan Moir Scd Dec 2016

Building Bridges: A Comparative Study Of Women Working In The Construction Industry In India And The Us, Susan Moir Scd

Labor Resource Center Publications

In January 2017, a delegation of women construction workers and advocates from the United States will visit India to meet with labour and civic leaders and share stories and experiences with women working in India’s construction industry. The goal of the delegation is to lay a foundation for an international network by and for women construction workers. This article describes the history and background of the delegation and its purpose.

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A Dollar A Day: Child Sponsorship And The Marketization Of Human Development, Taylor Hallett Dec 2016

A Dollar A Day: Child Sponsorship And The Marketization Of Human Development, Taylor Hallett

Capstone Collection

Child sponsorship as a method of international development offers child sponsors a personal connection to the process of alleviating poverty in the global South. As a form of human development, child sponsorship is constituted by neoliberal principles of marketization and social entrepreneurship. How does child sponsorship, in this context, require us to rethink the ethics of international development in light of ongoing debates about neoliberalism? In this research, I argue that child sponsorship reifies the binary of the “developed” and “undeveloped” worlds. Through undertaking a content analysis of three organizations (Compassion International, World Vision, and UNICEF) and applying post-structural critique …

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Sequentially Testing Polynomial Model Hypotheses Using Power Transforms Of Regressors, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C.B. Phillips Dec 2016

Sequentially Testing Polynomial Model Hypotheses Using Power Transforms Of Regressors, Jin Seo Cho, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We provide a methodology for testing a polynomial model hypothesis by extending the approach and results of Baek, Cho, and Phillips (2015; Journal of Econometrics; BCP) that tests for neglected nonlinearity using power transforms of regressors against arbitrary nonlinearity. We examine and generalize the BCP quasi-likelihood ratio test dealing with the multifold identification problem that arises under the null of the polynomial model. The approach leads to convenient asymptotic theory for inference, has omnibus power against general nonlinear alternatives, and allows estimation of an unknown polynomial degree in a model by way of sequential testing, a technique that is useful …

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Belief-Free Rationalizability And Informational Robustness, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris Dec 2016

Belief-Free Rationalizability And Informational Robustness, Dirk Bergemann, Stephen Morris

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose an incomplete information analogue of rationalizability. An action is said to be belief-free rationalizable if it survives the following iterated deletion process. At each stage, we delete actions for a type of a player that are not a best response to some conjecture that puts weight only on profiles of types of other players and states that that type thinks possible, combined with actions of those types that have survived so far. We describe a number of applications. This solution concept characterizes the implications of equilibrium when a player is known to have some private information but may …

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A Trillion-Dollar Question: What Predicts Student Loan Delinquencies?, Alvaro Mezza, Kamila Sommer Dec 2016

A Trillion-Dollar Question: What Predicts Student Loan Delinquencies?, Alvaro Mezza, Kamila Sommer

Journal of Student Financial Aid

The recent significant increase in student loan delinquencies has generated interest in understanding the key factors predicting the non-performance of these loans. However, despite the large size of the student loan market, existing analyses have been limited by lack of data. This paper studies predictors of student loan delinquencies using a nationally representative panel data set that anonymously combines individual credit bureau records with Federal Pell Grant and federal student loan recipient information, records on college enrollment, graduation and major, and school characteristics. We show that borrower-level credit characteristics are important predictors of student loan delinquencies. In particular, credit scores …

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Measuring The Financial Shocks Of Natural Disasters: A Panel Study Of U.S. States, Qing Miao, Yilin Hou, Michael Abrigo Dec 2016

Measuring The Financial Shocks Of Natural Disasters: A Panel Study Of U.S. States, Qing Miao, Yilin Hou, Michael Abrigo

Center for Policy Research

This paper employs panel vector autoregression to examine the dynamic fiscal response to disaster shocks. With 50-state, 1970-2013 panel data of state government finance and disaster damage, we estimate disaster impacts on revenue, expenditure, debt issuance, and intergovernmental transfers. We find that following a disaster, states increase program expenditure, but receive more federal transfers. Disasters have limited impact on total tax revenues but amplify fluctuations in sales, income, and property tax revenues. Our findings suggest that disaster-induced additional spending is largely financed through federal transfers, which include not only disaster relief funds but also non-disaster-related public welfare aids.

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The Economic Impacts Of Undocumented Immigrants In The United States, Abdulaziz Alangari Dec 2016

The Economic Impacts Of Undocumented Immigrants In The United States, Abdulaziz Alangari

Honors Papers and Posters

There are about 11 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., of which all are not granted a work permit. Thus, in order to survive, these immigrants seek jobs that do not require legal status but have wages significantly lower than minimum. In short, by having these immigrants work in low-wage jobs, the U.S. economy benefits by providing a diverse market to U.S. residents and thus creates a vast economy. My research paper will be talking about how the presence of undocumented immigrants is a significant factor in creating and shaping the diverse U.S. economy.

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Is The Wto Passé?, Kyle Bagwell, Chad P. Bown, Robert W. Staiger Dec 2016

Is The Wto Passé?, Kyle Bagwell, Chad P. Bown, Robert W. Staiger

Dartmouth Scholarship

No abstract provided.

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Are There Environmental Benefits From Driving Electric Vehicles? The Importance Of Local Factors, Stephen P. Holland, Erin T. Mansur, Nicholas Z. Muller, Andrew J. Yates Dec 2016

Are There Environmental Benefits From Driving Electric Vehicles? The Importance Of Local Factors, Stephen P. Holland, Erin T. Mansur, Nicholas Z. Muller, Andrew J. Yates

Dartmouth Scholarship

We combine a theoretical discrete-choice model of vehicle purchases, an econometric analysis of electricity emissions, and the AP2 air pollution model to estimate the geographic variation in the environmental benefits from driving electric vehicles. The second-best electric vehicle purchase subsidy ranges from $2,785 in California to -$4,964 in North Dakota, with a mean of -$1,095. Ninety percent of local environmental externalities from driving electric vehicles in one state are exported to others, implying they may be subsidized locally, even when the environmental benefits are negative overall. Geographically differentiated subsidies can reduce deadweight loss, but only modestly.

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Property Rights And International Trade: An Institutional Determinant Of Export Structure, Gregory Alan Bonadies Dec 2016

Property Rights And International Trade: An Institutional Determinant Of Export Structure, Gregory Alan Bonadies

Dissertations

This work investigates the connection, independent of other factors, between a country’s system of law and property rights and patterns of trade. Stronger property rights institutions are hypothesized to lead to greater diversity in exports and a greater proportion of higher value-added exports. Production and export possibilities depend on capital, labor, and technology. Technology is the way in which capital and labor resources can be organized for productive purposes. Property rights condition expressions of technology and thus production possibilities and export potential. Consequently, if property rights vary between countries, then technological expression, production possibilities, and export potential vary as well. …

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Restoring Relationship: How The Methodologies Of Wangari Maathai And The Green Belt Movement In Post-Colonial Kenya Achieve Environmental Healing And Women's Empowerment, Casey L. Wagner Dec 2016

Restoring Relationship: How The Methodologies Of Wangari Maathai And The Green Belt Movement In Post-Colonial Kenya Achieve Environmental Healing And Women's Empowerment, Casey L. Wagner

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The effects of the colonial project in Kenya created multi-faceted damages to the land and indigenous people-groups. Using the lens of ecofeminism, this study examines the undergirding structures that produce systems such as colonization that oppress and destroy land, people, and other beings. By highlighting the experience of the Kikuyu people within the Kenyan colonial program, the innovative and ingenious response of Wangari Maathai's Green Belt Movement proves to be a relevant and effective counter to women's disempowerment and environmental devastation in a post-colonial nation. The approach of the Green Belt Movement offers a unique and accessible method for empowering …

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Determining The Optimal Public Debt Threshold For Nigeria, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Sani Bawa, Sani I. Doguwa Dec 2016

Determining The Optimal Public Debt Threshold For Nigeria, Babatunde S. Omotosho, Sani Bawa, Sani I. Doguwa

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Nigeria using quarterly data. Generally, we found empirical support for an inverted U-shape relationship between public debt types and economic growth. For total public debt as percentage of GDP, model results identified a threshold level of 73.70 per cent, while the estimated inflexion points for external and domestic debts were 49.4 and 30.9 per cent, respectively. The implication of this finding is that debt accumulation in excess of the estimated threshold levels could hurt economic growth. A retrospective examination of the country’s …

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Volatility In The Nigerian Stock Market: Empirical Application Of Beta-T-Garch Variants, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Abiodun S. Bada, Victor N. Atoi Dec 2016

Volatility In The Nigerian Stock Market: Empirical Application Of Beta-T-Garch Variants, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Abiodun S. Bada, Victor N. Atoi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS), Exponential GAS (EGAS) and Asymmetric Exponential GAS (AEGAS) are new classes of volatility models that simultaneously account for jumps and asymmetry. Using these models, we estimate the dynamic pattern of the Nigeria All Share Index (ASI) from January 3, 2006 to July 22, 2014. Parameter estimates of the models were obtained using the Quasi Maximum Likelihood (QML) approach, and in-sample conditional volatility forecasts from each of the models were evaluated using the minimum loss function approach. Among the classical volatility models, the initial results detected IGARCH-t as the best model for predicting volatility in the …

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The Causes Of Persistent Inflation In Nigeria, Victor O. Asekunowo Dec 2016

The Causes Of Persistent Inflation In Nigeria, Victor O. Asekunowo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study sought to identify the traditional and institutional inflation variables responsible for inflation phenomenon and the magnitude of the contribution of the identified variables to the rise in general price level. Secondary data on key macroeconomic variables in the economy from 1974 to 2013 were used. The data collected were analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test. The results showed that there existed a longrun co-movement among the variables. Also, the ordinary least squares estimate showed that Real Effective Exchange Rate, Lagged Consumer Price Index, Real Broad Money and Real Profits were statistically significant in influencing Consumer …

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A Three-State Markov Model For Predicting Movements Of Asset Returns Of A Nigerian Bank, Maruf A. Raheem, Patrick O. Ezepue Dec 2016

A Three-State Markov Model For Predicting Movements Of Asset Returns Of A Nigerian Bank, Maruf A. Raheem, Patrick O. Ezepue

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

We present in this paper an alternative approach to determining and predicting the fluctuations in the daily prices and stock returns of a first-generation bank in the Nigerian Stock Market (NSM). The approach uses a three-state Markov to estimate the expected duration of the asset returns in states classified as rising (positive) (𝑅𝑘), falling (negative) state (𝑅𝑚) or stable (zero) state (𝑅𝑙). Related goodness-of-fit tests show that the Markov model fits the data adequately with an error rate of approximately 0.1. The maximum expected lengths of successively being in either positive or negative regime is 4 days, while that of …

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Dynamic Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Output And Unemployment In Nigeria: An Econometric Investigation, Attahir B. Abubakar Dec 2016

Dynamic Effects Of Fiscal Policy On Output And Unemployment In Nigeria: An Econometric Investigation, Attahir B. Abubakar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of fiscal policy shocks on output and unemployment in Nigeria under the Keynesian framework by employing the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) methodology to analyse annual series on the relevant variables for the period 1981-2015. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test for unit root result shows all variables to be integrated of order one and Johansen Cointegration test confirms the presence of long run association among the variables. Findings of the SVAR model shows shock in public expenditure as having a positive long- lasting effect on output. Revenue shock was found to exert a positive effect (lower …

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On Building Inference For The Statistical Neural Network With Application To Naira-Dollar Exchange Rate Efficiency: A Bootstrap Approach, Christopher Godwin Udomboso Dr, Francisco U. Saliu Dec 2016

On Building Inference For The Statistical Neural Network With Application To Naira-Dollar Exchange Rate Efficiency: A Bootstrap Approach, Christopher Godwin Udomboso Dr, Francisco U. Saliu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

In this study, we developed an inference procedure for the neural network using the bootstrap approach, and applied it to the market efficiency of the Nigerian exchange rate. Data used are exchange rate values from 2001 to 2015. We conducted a test on the market efficiency hypothesis, including test for relevance of individual and joint network inputs using method of partial derivative. The network architecture used is the multilayer perceptron. A valid statistical inference based on the estimated Statistical Neural Network was conducted using a well-known statistical resampling technique. Test of hypothesis that input or groups of inputs are relevant …

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Modelling Nigerian Banks’ Share Prices Using Smooth Transition Garch Models, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Damola M. Akinlana, Olanrewaju I. Shittu Dec 2016

Modelling Nigerian Banks’ Share Prices Using Smooth Transition Garch Models, Olaoluwa S. Yaya, Damola M. Akinlana, Olanrewaju I. Shittu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examined the application of nonlinear Smooth Transition-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ST-GARCH) model of Hagerud on prices of banks’ shares in Nigeria. The methodology is informed by the failure of the conventional GARCH model to capture the asymmetric properties of the banks’ daily share prices. The asymmetry and non-linearity in the model dynamics make it useful for generating nonlinear conditional variance series. From the empirical analysis, we obtained the conditional volatility of each bank’s share price return. The highest volatility persistence was observed in Bank 6, while Bank 12 had the least volatility. Evidently, about 25% of the investigated …

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Modelling Volatility Of The Exchange Rate Of The Naira To Major Currencies, Reuben O. David, Hussaini G. Dikko, Shehu U. Gulumbe Dec 2016

Modelling Volatility Of The Exchange Rate Of The Naira To Major Currencies, Reuben O. David, Hussaini G. Dikko, Shehu U. Gulumbe

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The exchange rate between the Naira and other currencies has continued to witness variability with depreciation. This variability makes it difficult to predict returns. Against this background, this paper examines the naira exchange rate vis-a-vis four other currencies. The impact of exogenous variables in modelling volatility is considered using both the GARCH (1,1) and its asymmetric variants. Three of the four returns series showed heteroscedasticity. The results of the fitted models indicate that the majority of the parameters are significant and that volatility is quite persistent. Furthermore, the results of the asymmetric model indicate different impacts for both negative and …

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A New Method For Helping Chinese People Who Are Facing Retirement To Exert Greater Control Over Their Financial Resources, Xuanmu Yan Dec 2016

A New Method For Helping Chinese People Who Are Facing Retirement To Exert Greater Control Over Their Financial Resources, Xuanmu Yan

Dissertations - ALL

In China, personal financial advisers are not common. Chinese people who are facing retirement have a difficult time to plan for their retirement. This causes a very serious problem in China: many older Chinese do not have enough money in retirement. Therefore, my goal is to help Chinese people that are facing retirement without a detailed financial plan. In order to do so, I’ve conducted research to understand the long-term goals of those Chinese people. As a qualitative research approach, I've created three probes to explore the problems they are facing and the reasons why existing solutions do not work …

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2015 Economic Contribution Of Nonresident Travel Spending In Montana Travel Regions And Counties, Kara Grau Dec 2016

2015 Economic Contribution Of Nonresident Travel Spending In Montana Travel Regions And Counties, Kara Grau

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

Money spent by those traveling in Montana has an effect directly on the businesses where spending occurs, and it ripples throughout the state’s economy from there. Statewide, spending by nonresidents (averaged over two years) totaled $3.57 billion. This report details the methods and results of the economic impact analyses for each of Montana’s travel regions, as well as analyses for counties in which nonresident travelers spent approximately $50 million or more.

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Short Selling Meets Hedge Fund 13f: An Anatomy Of Informed Demand, Yawen Jiao, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang Dec 2016

Short Selling Meets Hedge Fund 13f: An Anatomy Of Informed Demand, Yawen Jiao, Massimo Massa, Hong Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

The existing literature treats the short side (i.e., short selling) and the long side of hedge fund trading (i.e., fund holdings) independently. The two sides, however, complement each other: opposite changes in the two are likely to be driven by information, whereas simultaneous increases (decreases) of the two may be motivated by hedging (unwinding) considerations. We use this intuition to identify informed demand and document that it exhibits highly significant predictive power over returns (approximately 10% per year). We also find that informed demand forecasts future firm fundamentals, suggesting that hedge funds play an important role in information discovery. (C) …

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All In The Family: Economies Of Scale In Retail And Institutional Investment Management, Darwin Choi, Xi Li, Tong Yao, Zhe Zhang Dec 2016

All In The Family: Economies Of Scale In Retail And Institutional Investment Management, Darwin Choi, Xi Li, Tong Yao, Zhe Zhang

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

This paper examines the (dis)economies of scale related to the joint management of retail mutual funds and institutional funds (i.e., investment portfolios catering to institutional clients). Similar to well-known observations for mutual funds, the performance of institutional funds is negatively related to fund size but positively related to fund family size, suggesting diseconomies of scale at individual fund level and economies of scale at fund family level. More importantly, there is spillover of the family size effect -- the performance of mutual funds (institutional funds) is positively related to the total institutional assets (mutual fund assets) managed by the same …

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The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi Dec 2016

The Effect Of Monetary Policy On Bank Wholesale Funding, Hyunsoo Choi, Hyun Soo Choi

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We study how monetary policy affects the funding composition of the banking sector. When monetary tightening reduces the retail deposit supply due to, for example, a decrease in bank reserves or in money demand, banks try to substitute the deposit outflows with more wholesale funding in order to mitigate the policy impact on their lending. Banks have varying degrees of accessibility to wholesale funding sources because of financial frictions, and those banks that are large or that have a greater reliance on wholesale funding increase their wholesale funding more. As a result, monetary tightening increases both the reliance on and …

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