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2016

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Articles 631 - 660 of 1616

Full-Text Articles in Economics

Overview Of Development Financing: The Case Of Central Bank Of Nigeria, M. A. Olaitan Jun 2016

Overview Of Development Financing: The Case Of Central Bank Of Nigeria, M. A. Olaitan

Bullion

This study highlighted the functions of Central Bank under development finance and economic development, and it also went further to state the mandate of the development finance Department which is the development and implementation of policies, programmes and schemes aimed at the effective, efficient and sustainable delivery of financial services to the real sector of the Nigerian economy. The objective of the mandate are to increase the flow of financial resources to the real sector, create wealth and jobs, reduce poverty and so on.

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The Place Of Collateral Registry In Credit Delivery Services, Muhammad Mainasara Jun 2016

The Place Of Collateral Registry In Credit Delivery Services, Muhammad Mainasara

Bullion

Micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) are the main engines of economic growth. The sub-sector constitutes on integral part of the economy, providing products and services to Nigeria's teeming population, yet they are grossly underfunded. The huge financing gap, which characterized the MSMES, inhibits their development, thus having a telling effect on the economy.

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The Role Of The Media In Promoting Real Sector Finance., Gbenga Adefaye Jun 2016

The Role Of The Media In Promoting Real Sector Finance., Gbenga Adefaye

Bullion

This paper would focus on the Role of the Media as a social institution, why it should promote real sector financing and how it can promote real sector financing. This is premised on the belief that previous papers have dwelt sufficiently on the issue of technicalities of real sector and aspects of financing.

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Macroeconomic Stability And The Role Of Financial Institutions In Promoting Financial Inclusion In Nigeria, Mbutor O. Mbutor, Ibrahim A. Uba Jun 2016

Macroeconomic Stability And The Role Of Financial Institutions In Promoting Financial Inclusion In Nigeria, Mbutor O. Mbutor, Ibrahim A. Uba

Bullion

This article discusses the role of financial institutions in promoting financial inclusion in Nigeria as well as its macroeconomic stability. Positive growth of the economy is prerequisite for financial inclusion but the stability of the economy is sine qua non for economic growth. Therefore, the discussion of financial inclusion is best served when enclosed in the framework of the extent to which the economy is stable. The article further highlights financial inclusion and its related concepts and the role of financial institutions in promoting financial inclusion.

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Regional And Multilateral Institutional Arrangements In Africa: Rethinking The Imperatives Of Economic Diversification And Trade Development In Nigeria., Harrison O. Okafor Jun 2016

Regional And Multilateral Institutional Arrangements In Africa: Rethinking The Imperatives Of Economic Diversification And Trade Development In Nigeria., Harrison O. Okafor

Bullion

This paper critically assesses the implications of the multilateral trading system along the increasing but asymmetric interface between multilateral and regional institution on African economies with particular evidence for Nigeria. The issues relating to market access, export diversification and supply response to incentives derived from the various agreements provided basis for this reasoned analysis vis-à-vis the implications for growth and trade development imperatives. lt is revealed that the multilateral trading system has not benefited the SSA particularly Nigeria, relative to other regions like Asia. Perhaps. internal and external constraints associated with poor economic fundamentals, asymmetries between the rules of the …

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The Role Of The Nigerian Institutional Environment On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, Theresa Onaji-Benson Jun 2016

The Role Of The Nigerian Institutional Environment On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, Theresa Onaji-Benson

Bullion

Literature on the determinants of foreign direct investment has focused on the influence of macroeconomic conditions and market size, with research on the role of institutions on foreign direct investment especially in developing economies remaining inconclusive This paper seeks to study the Nigerian institutional environment how its positions may affect the inflows of foreign direct investment activity. The study employs the use of time series regression analysis of data sourced from the World Bank governance indicators and the Heritage Foundation index and finds that some institutional factors positively influence the level of foreign direct investment inflows.

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Three Essays On Finance, Agricultural Aid, And Development, James Squires Jun 2016

Three Essays On Finance, Agricultural Aid, And Development, James Squires

Dissertations

This work investigates several roles that financial development and agricultural aid have on economic development. In the first essay, I find that development of two of the major components of the financial sector—the banking sector and market sector—have a positive effect on incomes of the poor. In the second essay, I find a beneficial link between agricultural aid and agricultural productivity in that stable agricultural aid increases the Sharpe ratio for agricultural productivity. The third essay shows an agricultural productivity convergence across 140 countries. I do not find any evidence that agricultural aid has a supportive role in this convergence …

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Analysing Oil Price- Macroeconomic Volatility In Nigeria, Alhassan Abdulkareem, Kilishi A. Abdulkareem Jun 2016

Analysing Oil Price- Macroeconomic Volatility In Nigeria, Alhassan Abdulkareem, Kilishi A. Abdulkareem

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study provides analytical insight on modelling macroeconomic and oil price volatility in Nigeria. Mainly, the paper employed GARCH model and its variants (GARCH-M, EGARCH and TGARCH) with daily, monthly and quarterly data. The findings reveal that: all the macroeconomic variables considered (real gross domestic product, interest rate, exchange rate and oil price) are highly volatile; the asymmetric models (TGARCH and EGARCH) outperform the symmetric models (GARCH (1 1) and GARCH – M); and oil price is a major source of macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria. By implication, the Nigerian economy is vulnerable to both internal shocks (interest rate volatility, real …

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Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Nigeria: A Test Of The Friedman’S Hypothesis, Muhammad A. Abamanga, Umar Musa, Audu Salihu, Ubong S. Udoette, Valli T. Adejo, Offiong N. Edem, Hyariju Bukar, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver Jun 2016

Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Nigeria: A Test Of The Friedman’S Hypothesis, Muhammad A. Abamanga, Umar Musa, Audu Salihu, Ubong S. Udoette, Valli T. Adejo, Offiong N. Edem, Hyariju Bukar, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in Nigeria. It attempts to test whether the Friedman’s hypothesis – that a rise in the average rate of inflation leads to more uncertainty about future rate of inflation - holds for the country. The monthly inflation data spanning the period 1960:1 to 2014:07 was used. Inflation uncertainty was modeled as a time varying process using a GARCH framework. Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH) complemented by seasonal ARIMA (2, 0, 2) (0, 0, 1) was employed to model the inflation uncertainty. Given that inflation series display structural breaks, this was …

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Labor Market Analysis Of The Kenosha, Wisconsin Region, Bryan Bommersbach, Don Edgerly, George A. Erickcek, Brian Pittelko, Claudette Robey, Jim Robey, Bridget Timmeney Jun 2016

Labor Market Analysis Of The Kenosha, Wisconsin Region, Bryan Bommersbach, Don Edgerly, George A. Erickcek, Brian Pittelko, Claudette Robey, Jim Robey, Bridget Timmeney

Reports

No abstract provided.

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The Earned Income Tax Credit, Mental Health, And Happiness, Casey Boyd-Swan, Chris M. Herbst, John Ifcher, Homa Zarghamee Jun 2016

The Earned Income Tax Credit, Mental Health, And Happiness, Casey Boyd-Swan, Chris M. Herbst, John Ifcher, Homa Zarghamee

Economics

We study the impact of the earned income tax credit (EITC) on various measures of subjective well-being (SWB) using the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH) to estimate intent-to-treat effects of the EITC expansion embedded in the 1990 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act. We use a difference-in-differences framework that compares the pre-and post-expansion SWB-changes of women likely eligible for the EITC (low-skilled mothers of working age) to the SWB-changes of a comparison group that is likely ineligible (low-skilled, childless women of working age). Our results suggest that the EITC expansion generated sizeable SWB-improvements in the three major categories of SWB …

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Simple And Honest Confidence Intervals In Nonparametric Regression, Timothy B. Armstrong, Michal Kolesár Jun 2016

Simple And Honest Confidence Intervals In Nonparametric Regression, Timothy B. Armstrong, Michal Kolesár

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We consider the problem of constructing honest confidence intervals (CIs) for a scalar parameter of interest, such as the regression discontinuity parameter, in nonparametric regression based on kernel or local polynomial estimators. To ensure that our CIs are honest, we derive and tabulate novel critical values that take into account the possible bias of the estimator upon which the CIs are based. We show that this approach leads to CIs that are more efficient than conventional CIs that achieve coverage by undersmoothing or subtracting an estimate of the bias. We give sharp efficiency bounds of using different kernels, and derive …

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A Petition For Education Scholars, John Yinger Jun 2016

A Petition For Education Scholars, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

It’s Elementary is a series of essays on topics in education and education policy. The main focus is on education finance in New York State, but general research findings in education and education policy issues in several other states are also discussed. John Yinger, Professor of Economics and Public Administration at the Maxwell School, Syracuse University is the author of most of these essays, although a few are written by or co-authored with other scholars.

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The Labor Market Consequences Of Regulating Similar Occupations: The Licensing Of Occupational And Physical Therapists, Jing Cai, Morris M. Kleiner Jun 2016

The Labor Market Consequences Of Regulating Similar Occupations: The Licensing Of Occupational And Physical Therapists, Jing Cai, Morris M. Kleiner

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This study shows the influence of occupational licensing on two occupations that provide similar services: occupational therapists and physical therapists. Most of the tasks for these two occupations differ, but several jobs overlap, and individuals in both occupations could have legal jurisdiction over these tasks. We empirically examine how these two occupations interact with one another in the labor market on wage determination and employment. Unlike previous studies, our study examines two occupations that are female dominated both within the professions and among its leadership. Our results show that occupational licensing can raise the wages of members of both occupations, …

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Economic Structure And Constitutional Structure, Ganesh Sitaraman Jun 2016

Economic Structure And Constitutional Structure, Ganesh Sitaraman

Vanderbilt Law School Faculty Publications

In the last four decades, the American middle class has been hollowed out, and fears are growing that economic inequality is leading to political inequality. These trends raise a troubling question: Can our constitutional system survive the collapse of the middle class? This question might seem tangential-if not unrelated-to contemporary constitutional theory. But for most of the history ofpolitical thought, one of the central problems of constitutional design was the relationship between the distribution of wealth in society and the structure of government. Two traditions emerged from thinking about this relationship. The first tradition assumed that society would be divided …

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أثر العمق المالي و معدل سعر الصرف على التضخم في العراق للمدة (1970- 2014 ), حيدر عباس دريبي Jun 2016

أثر العمق المالي و معدل سعر الصرف على التضخم في العراق للمدة (1970- 2014 ), حيدر عباس دريبي

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

تهدف الدراسة لبيان اثر العمق المالي مقاسا ب ومعدل سعر صرف الدينار العراقي مقابل الدولار الامريكي على معدل التضخم في العراق للمدة (1970-2014). من جهة اخرى استخدمت طريقة Engle-Granger ذات الخطوتين وطريقة Johanson and Juselius لاختبار التكامل المشترك بين المتغيرات، ولتحديد اتجاه العلاقة السببية في الاجلين القصير والطويل بين المتغيرات أستخدم نموذج تصحيح الخطأ VECM. النتائج اشارت الى وجود تكامل مشترك بين العمق المالي وبين معدل التضخم وكذلك بين معدل سعر الصرف و معدل التضخم، وان هناك علاقة سببية تتجه من العمق المالي ومعدل سعر الصرف الى معدل التضخم في الاجلين القصير والطويل. وعليه، يجب التحكم في عرض النقود وايجاد …

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دراسة محددات ولاء الزبون في القطاع الفندقي دراسة تحليلية في الفنادق السياحية في محافظة النجف الأشرف, حسين علي عبد الرسول Jun 2016

دراسة محددات ولاء الزبون في القطاع الفندقي دراسة تحليلية في الفنادق السياحية في محافظة النجف الأشرف, حسين علي عبد الرسول

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يهدف البحث استقراء ما قدمته تلك الدراسات والتركيز على ثلاث محددات للولاء هي ( رضا الزبون ، جودة الخدمة ، قيمة الزبون ) . اتجهت الدراسة لاختيار عينة من نزلاء الفنادق السياحية في محافظة النجف الأشرف بلغ عددهم (104) نزيل . و باستخدام استمارة استبيان المصممة في ضوء دراسات سابقة ،تم صياغة مقياس واختباره في ضوء مجموعة من الأساليب الإحصائية المتقدمة(معامل الثبات ، معامل الثبات المركب ، صدق التقارب) . وثم اختبار الفرضيات من خلال نمذجة المعادلة الهيكلية .وتوصل البحث الى استنتاجات مهمة من أبرزها ، ان لجودة الخدمة المدركة دور مهم في تحقيق الولاء المركب ، في أن بلوغ …

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السلوك السياسي لمدراء المستشفيات وتأثيره في انتشار الإرهاق العاطفي بين الممرضين والممرضات دراسة حالة في مستشفى الصدر التعليمي في محافظة النجف الأشرف, ليث علي يوسف الحكيم Jun 2016

السلوك السياسي لمدراء المستشفيات وتأثيره في انتشار الإرهاق العاطفي بين الممرضين والممرضات دراسة حالة في مستشفى الصدر التعليمي في محافظة النجف الأشرف, ليث علي يوسف الحكيم

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

ان البحث الحالي يسعى إلى معرفة طبيعة العلاقة بين السلوك السياسي للمدراء والإرهاق العاطفي في مستشفى الصدر التعليمي في محافظة النجف الأشرف, وتتمثل أهمية البحث الحالي في محاولته لردم الفجوة المعرفية بين متغيري البحث. فضلاً عن وضع الأسس الصحيحة والمناسبة لمعالجة مشكلة واقعية تؤثر بصورة مباشرة على بيئة العمل في أحد أهم المستشفيات. ولقد وزع الباحثون بإستخدام طريقة العينة العشوائية 450 استبانه على عدد من الممرضين والممرضات في المستشفى المذكور. وكان عدد الاستبانات المسترجعة310 إستبانة، أما عدد الاستبانات الصالحة للتحليل الإحصائي فقد بلغ (287) إستبانة وبمعدل (92%) من الإستبانات المسترجعة. وأظهرت المراجعة النظرية للدراسات السابقة وجود فجوة معرفية لتفسير طبيعة …

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تنازل المجنى عليه عن حقه في الشكوى وإثره في انقضاء الدعوى الجزائية ( دراسة مقارنة ), رفاه خضير جياد الادريسي Jun 2016

تنازل المجنى عليه عن حقه في الشكوى وإثره في انقضاء الدعوى الجزائية ( دراسة مقارنة ), رفاه خضير جياد الادريسي

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يثير مصطلح المجنى عليه عدة تساؤلات خاصة بوضعه ودوره وأهميته في مجال الدراسات الجنائية ، حيث أن مفهومه وأهمية دراسته في القانون الجنائي تحتم علينا منحه هذا الاهتمام الذي لم يعنى به في كتابات شراح القانون الجزائي في مختلف العصور ولا في المدارس العقابية المختلفة ، باعتباره احد إطراف الدعوى الجزائية وكطرف في المشروع الإجرامي كغيره من بقية الإطراف لاسيما المتهم . وبالرغم من هذا الإهمال لوضع المجني عليه في الدراسات الفقهية القانونية إلا أننا حاولنا في هذا البحث أن نسلط الضوء عليه علنا نوضح دوره في هذا الجانب ، وكيف له أن يستخدم حقه في التنازل عن الشكوى في …

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تأثير جودة التدقيق الداخلي على كفاءة تنفيذ مشاريع الموازنة الاستثمارية في الجامعات العراقية الفتية (دراسة حالة: في جامعة المثنى وميسان) دراسة حالة: في جامعة المثنى وميسان, حيدر عباس عبد Jun 2016

تأثير جودة التدقيق الداخلي على كفاءة تنفيذ مشاريع الموازنة الاستثمارية في الجامعات العراقية الفتية (دراسة حالة: في جامعة المثنى وميسان) دراسة حالة: في جامعة المثنى وميسان, حيدر عباس عبد

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

ان التطور الحاصل في مشاريع الموازنة الاستثمارية من بعد عام 2003 , ادى الى قيام الجامعات العراقيــة والفتــية خاصة من مواصلة مواكبة التطورات في ظل تطور التكنلوجية الحديثة في الجامعات العربية او الاجنبية وذلك من خــلال النـــهوض بمؤسساتها العلمـــية بعد حالة الركود والاهمـــال التي عاشتها قبـــل عام 2003, وكانت لمشـــاريع الموازنــة الاستثمارية الاثر البالغ في تطوير تلك الجامعات ومن ضمنها الجامعات الفتية .لذا سوف نسلط الضوء في هذه الدراسة على الدور التي تلعبه جودة التدقيق الداخلي في كفاءة وتنفيذ مشاريع الــموازنة في الجامعات العراقية الفتية , حيث هدفت هذه الدراسة الى بيان كيفية تطوير وتحسين كفاءة مشاريع الموازنة الاستثمارية ,ومعالجة …

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قياس مستوى جودة الأرباح المحاسبية ومدى تأثرها بمحددات هيكل الملكية ((دراسة تطبيقية في عينة من المصارف التجارية العراقية الخاصة المدرجة في سوق العراق للأوراق المالية)), كرار سليم عبد الزهرة Jun 2016

قياس مستوى جودة الأرباح المحاسبية ومدى تأثرها بمحددات هيكل الملكية ((دراسة تطبيقية في عينة من المصارف التجارية العراقية الخاصة المدرجة في سوق العراق للأوراق المالية)), كرار سليم عبد الزهرة

Muthanna Journal of Administrative and Economics Sciences

يهدف البحث إلى قياس مستوى جودة الارباح باستخدام نموذج التدفقات والمستحقات ((Richardson ومن ثم بيان مدى تأثرها بمحددات هيكل الملكية بالتطبيق على ثمانية من المصارف العراقية التجارية الخاصة المدرجة في سوق العراق للأوراق المالية للفترة من 2004-2013. وقد تم استخدام البرنامج الإحصائي SSPS في قياس واختبار متغيرات البحث باستعمال الانحدار الخطي البسيط والمتعدد, واختبار T-Test وقد توصل البحث إلى ان هناك مستوى مقبول من الجودة في ارباح تلك المصارف,وبينت النتائج الاجمالية ان هناك اثر لمحددات هيكل الملكية على مستوى جودة الارباح.وانطلاقا من النتائج السابقة يوصي الباحث بضرورة اعتماد مؤشرا لقياس جودة الارباح في البيئة العراقية, فضلا عن تقنين محددات هيكل …

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Modelling Banks’ Interest Margins In Nigeria, Ini S. Udom, Ngozi T. I. Agboegbulem, Ngozi V. Atoi, Abiola O. Adeleke, Ochoche Abraham, Ogochukwu G. Onumonu, Murtala Abubakar Jun 2016

Modelling Banks’ Interest Margins In Nigeria, Ini S. Udom, Ngozi T. I. Agboegbulem, Ngozi V. Atoi, Abiola O. Adeleke, Ochoche Abraham, Ogochukwu G. Onumonu, Murtala Abubakar

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study applied panel analysis to determine the factors influencing interest margins in Nigeria using bank-specific, sector-specific and macroeconomic data ranging from 2010:Q1 to 2014:Q2. Based on the Hausman test, a fixed effect model in a generalized form (GLS) was estimated. The result shows that credit risk, growth in loans and advances, staff operating cost, GDP growth, inflation rate and money supply growth are significant determinants of interest margins in Nigeria. Consistent with previous studies, staff cost exerts highest impact on interest margins followed by fixed effects term. Further analysis of the banks’ fixed effects reveals that seven banks control …

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Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Abiodun S. Bada, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Inuwa A. Tata, Idowu Peters, Sani Bawa, Anigwe J. Onwubiko, Udoko C. Onyowo Jun 2016

Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Inflation In Nigeria, Abiodun S. Bada, Ajibola I. Olufemi, Inuwa A. Tata, Idowu Peters, Sani Bawa, Anigwe J. Onwubiko, Udoko C. Onyowo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Concerns about the magnitude and length of exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices have increased in many developing countries in view of its profound implications on price and exchange rate stability as well as the macroeconomic policy environment. This paper examines the exchange rate pass-through effect at the aggregate level into import and consumer prices in Nigeria for the period 1995Q1 – 2015Q1. Utilizing the Johansen approach to cointegration and a vector error correction methodology, the paper found the exchange rate pass-through into Nigeria’s CPI inflation to be incomplete. The long run pass-through elasticities were found to be 0.24 and …

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Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment In Nigeria, Ngozi E. Nwachukwu, Racheal O. Adebayo, Abdullahi A. Shettima, John O. Anigwe, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver Jun 2016

Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment In Nigeria, Ngozi E. Nwachukwu, Racheal O. Adebayo, Abdullahi A. Shettima, John O. Anigwe, Chidinma T. Udechukwu-Peterclaver

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study analyzed the relationship between relevant macroeconomic variables and the real effective exchange rate (REER) in Nigeria based on the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was estimated to obtain the equilibrium REER while the resultant levels of misalignment were computed for the period 1990 - 2014. Model results indicated that terms of trade and degree of trade openness are significant determinants of the REER, implying that trade policies matter for Naira REER movements. The error correction model indicated that 3.3% of disequilibrium error is corrected within a quarter. On the average, the …

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Real Exchange Rate Misalignment And Economic Growth In Nigeria (1960-2011), Waheed O. Ibrahim Jun 2016

Real Exchange Rate Misalignment And Economic Growth In Nigeria (1960-2011), Waheed O. Ibrahim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the impact of real effective exchange rate misalignment on economic growth in Nigeria using an annual data spanning 1960 to 2011. The augmented growth model was estimated using purchasing power parity (PPP) and generalized method of moment (GMM) approaches. Through series of iterative processes, it was observed that it will take four years for the exchange rate to revert back to equilibrium. The result from the PPP approach shows that the period of flexible exchange rate regime is characterized by a relatively lower real exchange rate misalignment over time compared with the fixed exchange rate regime. The …

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Exchange Rate Policy And Falling Crude Oil Prices: Effect On The Nigerian Stock Market, Terfa W. Abraham Jun 2016

Exchange Rate Policy And Falling Crude Oil Prices: Effect On The Nigerian Stock Market, Terfa W. Abraham

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the effect of crude oil price movement on the Nigerian stock market and the role of exchange rate as a plausible countercyclical policy tool. Daily data on All Share Index of the Nigerian stock market, crude oil prices and exchange rate, were collected for two periods: 2008-2009 and 2012-2015. Results from the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL) model show that oil prices are positively related with the performance of the Nigerian stock market thus would drag the market down in times of turmoil. Howbeit, devaluation of the naira is found to be effective in cushioning the effect of …

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An Empirical Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Impact Of Public Debt In Nigeria, Sunday N. Essien, Ngozi T. I. Agboegbulem, Michael K. Mba, Ogochukwu G. Onumonu Jun 2016

An Empirical Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Impact Of Public Debt In Nigeria, Sunday N. Essien, Ngozi T. I. Agboegbulem, Michael K. Mba, Ogochukwu G. Onumonu

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the impact of public sector borrowings on prices, interest rates, and output in Nigeria. It utilized a Vector Autoregressive framework, the Granger causality test, impulse response, and variance decomposition of the various innovations to study the impact. It found that shock to external debt stock increases prime lending rate, but with a lag. However, the level of external and domestic debt over the period of this study had no significant impact on the general price level and output.

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Empirical Model For Forecasting Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Go-Garch Approach, Godknows Isenah, Olusanya E. Olubusoye Jun 2016

Empirical Model For Forecasting Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Go-Garch Approach, Godknows Isenah, Olusanya E. Olubusoye

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study aimed at determining a set of superior generalized orthogonal-GARCH (GO-GARCH) models for forecasting time-varying conditional correlations and variances of five foreign exchange rates vis-à-vis the Nigerian Naira. Daily data covering the period 02/01/2009 to 19/03/2015 was used, and four estimators of the GO-GARCH model were considered for fitting the models. Forecast performance tests were conducted using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) and the model confidence set (MCS) tests procedures. The DM test indicates preference for the GO-GARCH model estimated with nonlinear least squares (NLS) estimator – denoted as GOGARCH-NLS, while the MCS test determined a set of superior models (SSM) …

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Monetary Policy And Unemployment In Nigeria: Is There A Dynamic Relationship?, Sunday N. Essien, Garba A. Manya, Mary O.A. Arigo, Kufre J. Bassey, Suleiman F. Ogunyinka, Deborah G. Ojegwo, Francisca Ogbuehi Jun 2016

Monetary Policy And Unemployment In Nigeria: Is There A Dynamic Relationship?, Sunday N. Essien, Garba A. Manya, Mary O.A. Arigo, Kufre J. Bassey, Suleiman F. Ogunyinka, Deborah G. Ojegwo, Francisca Ogbuehi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper examines the link between unemployment and monetary policy in Nigeria using a vector autoregressive (VAR) framework for the period 1983q1 – 2014q1. The paper investigates the effect of structural change by identifying three structural breakpoints and incorporating them into the VAR model as dummy variables. The results show that a positive shock to policy rate raises unemployment over a 10 quarter period. In addition, all the variables used as proxy in the model jointly Granger cause unemployment, implying the existence of a dynamic relationship between monetary policy and unemployment in Nigeria.

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Exchange Rate And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Ngozi E. Nwachukwu, Abdulkadir I. Ali, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Mohammed A. Shettima, Solomon S. Zirra, Bola S. Falade, Michael J. Alenyi Jun 2016

Exchange Rate And External Reserves In Nigeria: A Threshold Cointegration Analysis, Ngozi E. Nwachukwu, Abdulkadir I. Ali, Ismaila S. Abdullahi, Mohammed A. Shettima, Solomon S. Zirra, Bola S. Falade, Michael J. Alenyi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper models the long-run relationship between the Bureau De Change exchange rate and external reserves in Nigeria in a Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM) framework using daily data that spans from Jan 1, 2014 to Jul 31, 2015. Modeling BDC exchange rate and external reserves within this context can be motivated by the fact that the transition mechanism between the variables is controlled by the degree of BDC exchange rates premium which is within central bank of Nigeria’s policy oversight. The supLM test result indicates that there is a non-linear long-run relationship between the series, providing empirical support …

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