Economics Commons^™

Econometric Analysis Of Continuous Time Models: A Survey Of Peter Phillips' Work And Some New Results, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Econometric analysis of continuous time models has drawn the attention of Peter Phillips for 40 years, resulting in many important publications by him. In these publications he has dealt with a wide range of continuous time models and the associated econometric problems. He has investigated problems from univariate equations to systems of equations, from asymptotic theory to finite sample issues, from parametric models to nonparametric models, from identification problems to estimation and inference problems, from stationary models to nonstationary and nearly nonstationary models. This paper provides an overview of Peter Phillips' contributions in the continuous time econometrics literature. We review …

Robustify Financial Time Series Forecasting With Bagging, Sainan Jin, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we propose a revised version of (bagging) bootstrap aggregating as a forecast combination method for the out-of-sample forecasts in time series models. The revised version explicitly takes into account the dependence in time series data and can be used to justify the validity of bagging in the reduction of mean squared forecast error when compared with the unbagged forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations show that the new method works quite well and outperforms the traditional one-step-ahead linear forecast as well as the nonparametric forecast in general, especially when the in-sample estimation period is small. We also find that …

Specification Test For Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Liangjun Su, Sainan Jin, Yonghui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we propose a consistent nonparametric test for linearity in a large dimensional panel data model with interactive fixed effects. Both lagged dependent variables and conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form are allowed in the model. We estimate the model under the null hypothesis of linearity to obtain the restricted residuals which are then used to construct the test statistic. We show that after being appropriately centered and standardized, the test statistic is asymptotically normally distributed under both the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives by using the concept of conditional strong mixing that was recently …

Jackknife Model Averaging For Quantile Regressions, Xun Lu, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we consider the problem of frequentist model averaging for quantile regression (QR) when all the M models under investigation are potentially misspecified and the number of parameters in some or all models is diverging with the sample size n. To allow for the dependence between the error terms and the regressors in the QR models, we propose a jackknife model averaging (JMA) estimator which selects the weights by minimizing a leave-one-out cross-validation criterion function and demonstrate that the jackknife selected weight vector is asymptotically optimal in terms of minimizing the out-of-sample final prediction error among the given …

Identifying Latent Structures In Panel Data, Liangjun Su, Zhentao Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a novel mechanism for identifying and estimating latent group structures in panel data using penalized regression techniques. We focus on linear models where the slope parameters are heterogeneous across groups but homogenous within a group and the group membership is unknown. Two approaches are considered — penalized least squares (PLS) for models without endogenous regressors, and penalized GMM (PGMM) for models with endogeneity. In both cases we develop a new variant of Lasso called classifier-Lasso (C-Lasso) that serves to shrink individual coefficients to the unknown group-specific coefficients. C-Lasso achieves simultaneous classification and consistent estimation in a single …

Unilateral Emissions Mitigation, Spillovers, And Global Learning, Shurojit Chatterji, Sayantan Ghosal, Sean Walsh, John Whalley

Research Collection School Of Economics

What's the role of unilateral measures in global climate change mitigation in a post-Durban, post 2012 global policy regime? We argue that under conditions of preference heterogeneity, unilateral emissions mitigation at a subnational level may exist even when a nation is unwilling to commit to emission cuts. We establish that under certain assumptions, in a global strongly connected network of countries, learning the costs of switching to a low emissions activity can result in a universal adoption of such activities. We analyze the features of a policy proposal that could accelerate convergence to a low carbon world in the presence …

A Flexible And Automated Likelihood Based Framework For Inference In Stochastic Volatility Models, Hans J. Skaug, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The Laplace approximation is used to perform maximum likelihood estimation of univariate and multivariate stochastic volatility (SV) models. It is shown that the implementation of the Laplace approximation is greatly simplified by the use of a numerical technique known as automatic differentiation (AD). Several algorithms are proposed and compared with some existing maximum likelihood methods using both simulated data and actual data. It is found that the new methods match the statistical efficiency of the existing methods while significantly reducing the coding effort. Also proposed are simple methods for obtaining the filtered, smoothed and predictive values for the latent variable. …

Minimum Investment Requirements, Financial Market Globalization, And Symmetry Breaking, Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We incorporate wealth heterogeneity and the minimum investment requirements in the model of Matsuyama (2004, Econometrica) and provide a complete characterization of symmetry breaking. In particular, we identify the extensive margin of investment as a key channel through which the interest rate may respond positively to capital accumulation, or equivalently, the interest rate can be higher in the rich than in the poor countries. Then, financial market globalization may lead to “uphill” capital flows from the poor to the rich countries, which widens the initial cross-country income gap and leads to income divergence among inherently identical countries, a phenomenon that …

Assessing Market Failures In Export Pioneering Activities: A Structural Estimation Approach, Shang-Jin Wei, Ziru Wei, Jianhuan Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

The paper provides a first structural-estimation-based assessment of an influential hypothesis that export pioneers are too few relative to social optimum due to knowledge spillover in new market explorations. Such market failure requires two inequalities to hold simultaneously: the discovery cost is greater than any individual firm’s expected profit but Smaller than the sum of all potential exporters’ expected profits. Neither has to hold in the data. We estimate the structural parameters based on the customs data of Chinese electronics exports. While we find positive discover cost and spillovers, "missing pioneers" are nonetheless a low probability event.

Unit Roots In Life: A Graduate Student Story, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

What follows is a graduate student story. It draws on the first part of the speech I gave that evening at the NZESG conference dinner. It mixes personal reflections with recollections of the extraordinary New Zealanders who shaped my thinking as a graduate student and beginning researcher-people who have had an enduring impact on my work and career as an econometrician. The story traces out these human initial conditions and unit roots that figure in my early life of teaching and research.

Nonlinearity Induced Weak Instrumentation, Ioannis Kasparis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos

Research Collection School Of Economics

In regressions involving integrable functions we examine the limit properties of instrumental variable (IV) estimators that utilise integrable transformations of lagged regressors as instruments. The regressors can be either I(0) or nearly integrated (NI) processes. We show that this kind of nonlinearity in the regression function can significantly affect the relevance of the instruments. In particular, such instruments become weak when the signal of the regressor is strong, as it is in the NI case. Instruments based on integrable functions of lagged NI regressors display long range dependence and so remain relevant even at long lags, continuing to contribute to …

A Combined Approach To The Inference Of Conditional Factor Models, Yan Li, Liangjun Su, Yuewu Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a new methodology for estimating and testing conditional factor models in finance. We propose a two-stage procedure that naturally unifies the two existing approaches in the finance literature -- the parametric approach and the nonparametric approach. Our combined approach possesses important advantages over both methods. Using our two-stage combined estimator, we derive new test statistics for investigating key hypotheses in the context of conditional factor models. Our tests can be performed on a single asset or jointly across multiple assets. We further propose a novel test to directly check whether the parametric model used in our first …

Shrinkage Estimation Of Regression Models With Multiple Structural Changes, Junhui Qian, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we consider the problem of determining the number of structural changes in multiple linear regression models via group fused Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator). We show that with probability tending to one our method can correctly determine the unknown number of breaks and the estimated break dates are sufficiently close to the true break dates. We obtain estimates of the regression coefficients via post Lasso and establish the asymptotic distributions of the estimates of both break ratios and regression coefficients. We also propose and validate a data-driven method to determine the tuning parameter. Monte Carlo …

The People Want The Fall Of The Regime: Schooling, Political Protest, And The Economy, Filipe R. Campante, Davin Chor

Research Collection School Of Economics

We provide evidence that economic circumstances are a key intermediating variable for understanding the relationship between schooling and political protest. Using the World Values Survey, we find that individuals with higher levels of schooling, but whose income outcomes fall short of that predicted by their biographical characteristics, in turn display a greater propensity to engage in protest activities. We discuss a number of interpretations that are consistent with this finding, including the idea that economic conditions can affect how individuals trade off the use of their human capital between production and political activities. Our results could also reflect a link …

Governance And Private Investment In Sub-Saharan Africa, Idrissa Mohamed Ouedraogo, Pascal Tegawinde Kouaman

International Conference on African Development

Africa is one of the world regions whose development potentials are particularly important. But despite this situation, Africa is one of the continents where poverty exists on a large scale. More than 44 % of the African population lives below the poverty line. Yet, various forms of development strategies have been designed and implemented in the African countries. In 1992, in its publication Governance and Development, the World Bank refers to the quality of government as the cause of the failure of several of these strategies. Attention is henceforth focused on how governments organize the management of state and …

Genomic Correlates Of Atherosclerosis In Ancient Humans, Albert Zink, L. Samuel Wann, Randall C. Thompson, Andreas Keller, Frank Maixner, Adel H. Allam, Caleb E. Finch, Bruno Frohlich, Hillard Kaplan, Guido P. Lombardi, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Lucia Watson, Samantha L. Cox, Michael I. Miyamoto, Jagat Narula, Alexandre F. R. Stewart, Gregory S. Thomas, Johannes Krause

ESI Publications

Paleogenetics offers a unique opportunity to study human evolution, population dynamics, and disease evolution in situ. Although histologic and computed x-ray tomographic investigations of ancient mummies have clearly shown that atherosclerosis has been present in humans for more than 5,000 years, limited data are available on the presence of genetic predisposition for cardiovascular disease in ancient human populations. In a previous whole-genome study of the Tyrolean Iceman, a 5,300-year-old glacier mummy from the Alps, an increased risk for coronary heart disease was detected. The Iceman’s genome revealed several single nucleotide polymorphisms that are linked with cardiovascular disease in genome-wide association …

Funerary Artifacts, Social Status, And Atherosclerosis In Ancient Peruvian Mummy Bundles, M. Linda Sutherland, Samantha L. Cox, Guido P. Lombardi, Lucia Watson, Clide M. Valladolid, Caleb E. Finch, Albert Zink, Bruno Frohlich, Hillard Kaplan, David E. Michalik, Michael I. Miyamoto, Adel H. Allam, Randall C. Thompson, L. Samuel Wann, Jagat Narula, Gregory S. Thomas, James D. Sutherland

ESI Publications

Background: Evidence of atherosclerotic plaques in ancient populations has led to the reconsideration of risk factors for heart disease and of the common belief that it is a disease of modern times.

Methods: Fifty-one wrapped mummy bundles excavated from the sites of Huallamarca, Pedreros, and Rinconada La Molina from the Puruchuco Museum collection in Lima, Peru, were scanned using computed tomography to investigate the presence of atherosclerosis. Funerary artifacts contained within the undisturbed mummy bundles were analyzed as an attempt to infer the social status of the individuals to correlate social status with evidence of heart disease in …

Why Did Ancient People Have Atherosclerosis?: From Autopsies To Computed Tomography To Potential Causes, Gregory S. Thomas, L. Samuel Wann, Adel H. Allam, Randall C. Thompson, David E. Michalik, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Guido P. Lombardi, Lucia Watson, Samantha L. Cox, Clide M. Valladolid, Gomaa Abd El-Maksoud, Muhammad Al-Tohamy Soliman, Ibrahem Badr, Abd El-Halim Nur El-Din, Emily M. Clarke, Ian G. Thomas, Michael I. Miyamoto, Hillard Kaplan, Bruno Frohlich, Jagat Narula, Alexandre F. R. Stewart, Albert Zink, Caleb E. Finch

ESI Publications

Computed tomographic findings of atherosclerosis in the ancient cultures of Egypt, Peru, the American Southwest and the Aleutian Islands challenge our understanding of the fundamental causes of atherosclerosis. Could these findings be true? Is so, what traditional risk factors might be present in these cultures that could explain this apparent paradox? The recent computed tomographic findings are consistent with multiple autopsy studies dating as far back as 1852 that demonstrate calcific atherosclerosis in ancient Egyptians and Peruvians. A nontraditional cause of atherosclerosis that could explain this burden of atherosclerosis is the microbial and parasitic inflammatory burden likely to be present …

Atherosclerosis: A Longue Durée Approach, L. Samuel Wann, Randall C. Thompson, Adel H. Allam, Caleb E. Finch, Albert Zink, Hillard Kaplan, Bruno Frohlich, Guido P. Lombardi, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Lucia Watson, Samantha L. Cox, Michael I. Miyamoto, Alexandre F. R. Stewart, Jagat Narula, Gregory S. Thomas

ESI Publications

Fernand Braudel popularized the longue durée approach to scholarly investigation in the mid-20th century. The longue durée approach can be loosely translated to mean “look for the big picture, synthesize data collected using all available methodology over the long periods of time to identify fundamental principles, rather than becoming preoccupied with isolated observations.” Braudel, a historian and economist, emphasized observation of enduring historical structures and analysis of long-term, panoramic economic trends rather than concentrating on detailed descriptions of particular events or individuals. He also urged the use of insight gained from many scholarly disciplines to identify the essential underpinnings of …

Recession And Recovery: Jobs In Nebraska: 2008 To 2012, Randolph L. Cantrell

Cornhusker Economics

A commonly used resource for tracking changes in jobs and income at the county level is the Regional Economic Information System (REIS) data base produced annually by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). REIS data are derived from tax filings by employers, employees and the self-employed. The data base has been relatively unchanged (except for a reorganization of industry codes) since 1969. Reporting is always for the tax year two-years previous to the release date, so the data are more about historical than current conditions. However, REIS is generally seen as reliable and does provide a trend line that now …

Paying Campus Speakers?, Michael Hemesath

Administration Publications

No abstract provided.

The Impact On Consumer Behavior Of Energy Demand Side Management Programs Measurement Techniques And Methods, Jeffrey L. Pursley

College of Business: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Much effort has gone into measuring the impact of Demand Side Management (DSM) programs on energy usage, particularly in regards to electric usage. However, there are potential biases in such measurements. This paper explores one of these potential biases, the rebound effect. This effect is caused by changes in consumer behavior as a result of DSM programs. The work of Steven Braithwaite and Douglas Caves provide the starting point for this analysis, although the rebound effect is referenced in many other works in this field.

In an effort the estimate this effect, data from the Nebraska Energy Office’s DSM programs …

Conditional Cash Transfers, Community, And Empowerment Of Women In Colombia, Harlan Downs-Tepper

21st Century Social Justice

In 2001, the Colombian government initiated an experiment in poverty alleviation called Familias en Acción. This conditional cash transfer (CCT) program takes a novel approach to poverty reduction by addressing short- and long-term factors contributing to poverty. Though Colombia’s CCT program is just one of a wave of similar initiatives, its unique context and unexpected social effects, beyond the primary intentions of program designers, differentiate it from other such programs. Drawing on 200 interviews and focus group discussions which he conducted with academic experts, program beneficiaries and program administrators in three Colombian cities, the author finds that an unexpected …

Are Mega Events In The Twin Cities Worth It?, Louis D. Johnston

Economics Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Book Review: Why Does College Cost So Much?, Edward J. Smith, Brian A. Sponsler

Journal of Student Financial Aid

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An Examination Of South Carolina’S Institutions Of Reform And Their Impact On The Self-Narratives Of African American Men, Ashley E. Krejci-Shaw

Capstone Collection

In the State of South Carolina (SC), African American male adolescents disproportionately face disciplinary action in public schools and other institutions. In 2013, South Carolina’s Department of Juvenile Justice (SCDJJ) released data that listed Black male children comprising 57% of all juvenile referrals in the state. This disproportionate trend is also present in South Carolina’s correctional system. In 2013, South Carolina’s Department of Corrections (SCDOC) reported that out of 20,777 male prisoners, 13,631 were Black. For adolescents or young adults looking to continue their education, alternative programs are available. One program that captures educationally displaced children in South Carolina is …

Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, And Unemployment, Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper develops a model of unemployment fluctuations. The model keeps the architecture of the Barro and Grossman (1971) general disequilibrium model but replaces the disequilibrium framework on the labor and product markets by a matching framework. On the product and labor markets, both price and tightness adjust to equalize supply and demand. There is one more variable than equilibrium condition on each market, so we consider various price mechanisms to close the model, from completely flexible to completely rigid. With some price rigidity, aggregate demand influences unemployment through a simple mechanism: higher aggregate demand raises the probability that firms …

Some Good (Which Is To Say, Accurate) Student Debt News, Michael Hemesath

Administration Publications

No abstract provided.

Economic Contribution Of Nonresident Travel Spending In Montana Travel Regions And Counties: 2012-2013, Kara Grau

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

Money spent by those traveling to and through Montana has an effect not only on the businesses where spending occurs, but it ripples throughout the state’s economy, as well. Statewide, spending by nonresidents (averaged over two years) totaled $3.47 billion. This report details the methods and results of the economic impact analyses for each of Montana’s travel regions, as well as analyses for counties in which nonresident travelers spent approximately $50 million or more.

Heartless Economists, Michael Hemesath

Administration Publications

No abstract provided.