Economics Commons^™

Estimation Of Monthly Volatility: An Empirical Comparison Of Realized Volatility, Garch And Acd-Icv Methods, Shouwei Liu, Yiu Kuen Tse

Research Collection School Of Economics

We apply the ACD-ICV method proposed by Tse and Yang (2011) for the estimation of intraday volatility to estimate monthly volatility, and empirically compare this method against the realized volatility (RV) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methods. Our Monte Carlo results show that the ACD-ICV method performs well against the other two methods. Evidence on the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index (VIX) shows that it predicts the ACD-ICV volatility estimates better than it predicts the RV estimates. While the RV method is popular for the estimation of monthly volatility, its performance is inferior to the GARCH method.

Can A Financial Conditions Index Guide Monetary Policy? The Case Of Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this study, we explore the issue of whether a financial conditions index can serve as a useful guide to monetary policy in the context of Singapore. To this end, we construct an index that comprises not only the usual monetary variables like interest rates, exchange rates and credit expansions but also asset prices such as stock prices and house prices. The choice of these constituent series is motivated by the role they play in the monetary transmission mechanism with consideration given to the key role leverage plays in modern business cycles and the risk-taking channel magnified by the prolonged …

Ex Post Destruction In The Hold-Up Problem, Huan Wang, Juyuan Zhang, Yi Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate whether or not ex post destruction can solve the hold-up problem. After clarifying the difference between ex post destruction and nontrade when negotiation breaks down, we show that the option of ex post destruction is not sufficient to enhance ex ante efficiency. In particular, only if the information about the spitefulness of the supplier is coarse enough, will the option of ex post destruction alleviate the inefficiency of underinvestment caused by the hold-up problem.

Variable Selection In Nonparametric And Semiparametric Regression Models, Liangjun Su, Yonghui Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This chapter reviews the literature on variable selection in nonparametric and semiparametric regression models via shrinkage. We highlight recent developments on simultaneous variable selection and estimation through the methods of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso), smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) or their variants, but restrict our attention to nonparametric and semiparametric regression models. In particular, we consider variable selection in additive models, partially linear models, functional/varying coefficient models, single index models, general nonparametric regression models, and semiparametric/nonparametric quantile regression models.

Non-Normality And Heteroscedasticity Robust Lm Tests Of Spatial Dependence, Badi H. Baltagi, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

The standard LM tests for spatial dependence in linear and panel regressions are derived under the normality and homoskedasticity assumptions of the regression disturbances. Hence, they may not be robust against non-normality or heteroskedasticity of the disturbances. Following Born and Breitung (2011), we introduce general methods to modify the standard LM tests so that they become robust against heteroskedasticity and non-normality. The idea behind the robustification is to decompose the concentrated score function into a sum of uncorrelated terms so that the outer product of gradient (OPG) can be used to estimate its variance. We also provide methods for improving …

Arrow-Fisher-Hanemann-Henry And Dixit-Pindyck Option Values Under Strategic Interactions, Tomoki Fujii, Ryuichiro Ishikawa

Research Collection School Of Economics

We extend the Arrow–Fisher–Hanemann–Henry (AFHH) and Dixit–Pindyck (DP) option values to a game situation. By reinterpreting the AFHH option value as a change in the surplus from conservation because of the prospect of future information, we deal with a conceptual difficulty associated with the AFHH option value in the presence of strategic interactions. We then introduce the DP option value into a game situation. We show that the equivalence between the expected value of information and the DP option value in the standard model does not hold under strategic interactions.

Globalization And Law: Law Beyond The State, Ralf Michaels

Faculty Scholarship

The chapter provides an introduction into law and globalization for sociolegal studies. Instead of treating globalization as an external factor that impacts the law, globalization and law are here viewed as intertwined. I suggest that three types of globalization should be distinguished—globalization as empirical phenomenon, globalization as theory, and globalization as ideology. I go on to discuss one central theme of globalization, namely in what way society, and therefore law, move beyond the state. This is done along the three classical elements of the state—territory, population/citizenship, and government. The role of all of these elements is shifting, suggesting we need …

Where Should Europe’S Investment Path Lead?: Reflections On August Reinisch, “Quo Vadis Europe?”, Julie A. Maupin

Faculty Scholarship

Relative to the past policies of its Member States, will the European Union’s new comprehensive international investment policy constitute a step forward, a step backward, or a perpetuation of the status quo? Professor Reinisch’s contribution to this volume opens a wide window on the current state of the debate. His cogent analysis suggests that, at present, all three possibilities remain live ones, although some basic contours of a likely trajectory are beginning to take shape. I use his musings as a springboard to investigate two questions which follow naturally from his. That is, in view of Professor Reinisch’s response to …

Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, 3rd Quarter, 2013, Armstrong Atlantic State University Center For Regional Analysis

Coastal Empire Economic Monitor

The Coastal Empire Economic Indicators are designed to provide continuously updating quarterly snapshots of the Savannah Metropolitan Statistical Area economy. The coincident index measures the current economic heartbeat of the region. The leading index provides a short term forecast of the region’s economic activity in six to nine months.

Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, 2nd Quarter, 2013, Armstrong Atlantic State University Center For Regional Analysis

Coastal Empire Economic Monitor

The Coastal Empire Economic Indicators are designed to provide continuously updating quarterly snapshots of the Savannah Metropolitan Statistical Area economy. The coincident index measures the current economic heartbeat of the region. The leading index provides a short term forecast of the region’s economic activity in six to nine months.

Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, 1st Quarter, 2013, Armstrong Atlantic State University Center For Regional Analysis

Coastal Empire Economic Monitor

The Coastal Empire Economic Indicators are designed to provide continuously updating quarterly snapshots of the Savannah Metropolitan Statistical Area economy. The coincident index measures the current economic heartbeat of the region. The leading index provides a short term forecast of the region’s economic activity in six to nine months.

Essays On The Impact Of Income On Family And Child Well-Being, Christian Werner Raschke

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

In this dissertation I offer three independent studies that each contribute to the literature on the impact of income on family and child well-being. I present three essays that investigate three different contexts and sources of income variation. First, I investigate the extent to which an unconditional cash transfer to families in Germany that is intended to benefit children actually translates into an improvement in the circumstances related to child well-being. Next, I analyze how shocks to mothers’ earnings impact their demand for health inputs during pregnancy, and how this affects the health of the newborn child. The fourth chapter …

Testing Whether The Underlying Continuous-Time Process Follows A Diffusion: An Infinitesimal Operator-Based Approach, Bin Chen, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

We develop a nonparametric test to check whether a process can be represented by a stochastic differential equation driven only by a Brownian motion. Our testing procedure utilizes the infinitesimal operator-based martingale characterization combined with a generalized spectral approach. Such a testing procedure is feasible and convenient because the infinitesimal operator of the diffusion process has a closed-form expression. The proposed test is applicable to both univariate and multivariate processes and has an  limit distribution under the diffusion hypothesis. Simulation and empirical studies show that the proposed test has reasonable performance in small samples.

Towards Aid Effectiveness : Contested Theories And Concepts : A Case Study Of Ghana’S Community–Based Rural Development Project, Kwadwo Adusei-Asante

Theses: Doctorates and Masters

The discussion of aid effectiveness continues to gain prominence in international development policy discourse and analysis. However, the question of why aid seems to be ineffective is far more complicated and remains largely unanswered. While the notions that aid drives donors’ interests and creates dependency are still relevant, this thesis confronts the problem, by examining the issues that influenced the operationalisation and effectiveness of aid programs in the context of Ghana’s Community-Based Rural Development Project (CBRDP) (2005-2011). By arguing that aid dependency and “aid as a concept” are different, the thesis makes the most basic assumption that ‘aid’ is not …

An Investigation Into The Volatility And Cointegration Of Emerging European Stock Markets, Anna Golab

Theses: Doctorates and Masters

This dissertation examines the interaction between European Emerging markets including cointegration, volatility, correlation and spillover effects. This study is also concerned with the process of the enlargement of the European Union and how this affects the emerging markets of newcomers. The twelve emerging markets studied are Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungry, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, which are all progressing very rapidly in their reforms and domestic economic stability.

The majority of prior studies on stock market comovements and integration have concentrated on mature developed markets or the advanced emerging markets of the Czech Republic, …

Intertemporal Substitution In Maternal Labor Supply: Evidence Using State School Entrance Age Laws, Rashmi Rekha Barua

Research Collection School Of Economics

I propose a new framework to study the intertemporal labor supply hypothesis. I use an exogenous source of variation in maternal net earning opportunities, generated through school entrance age of children, to study intertemporal labor supply behavior. Employing data from the 1980 US Census and the NLSY, I estimate the effect of a one year delay in school attendance on long run maternal labor supply. IV estimates imply that having a 5 year old enrolled in school increases labor supply measures for married women, with no younger children, by between 7 to 34 percent. Further, using a sample of 7 …

Monetary Regime Choice In Singapore: Would A Tayor Rule Outperform Exchange-Rate Management?, Hwee Kwan Chow, G.C. Lim, P. Mcnelis

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper adopts a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium-vector autorgressive (DSGE-VAR) approach to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore. We examine if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate and adopting a Taylor rule. Our results show that, in terms of overall inflation volatility, the exchange rate rule has a comparative advantage over the Taylor rule when export price shocks are the major sources of real volatility, while a Taylor rule dominates when domestic productivity shocks drive real volatility. The exchange-rate rule also dominates the Taylor rule for reducing inflation persistence.

Testing Conditional Independence Via Empirical Likelihood, Liangjun Su, Halbert White

Research Collection School Of Economics

We construct two classes of smoothed empirical likelihood ratio tests for the conditional independence hypothesis by writing the null hypothesis as an infinite collection of conditional moment restrictions indexed by a nuisance parameter. One class is based on the CDF; another is based on smoother functions. We show that the test statistics are asymptotically normal under the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives. We also show that the tests possess an asymptotic optimality property in terms of average power. Simulations suggest that the tests are well behaved in finite samples. Applications to some economic and financial time …

No Pass No Drive: Education And Allocation Of Time, Rashmi Rekha Barua, Marian Vidal-Fernandez

Research Collection School Of Economics

Since the late 1980s, several states in the US have introduced No Pass No Drive (NPND) laws that set minimum academic requirements for teenagers under 18 to obtain a driving license. Using data from the U.S. Census and Monitoring the Future (MTF) survey, we exploit cross-state, cross-cohort and cross-time variation in NPND laws to study their effect on educational outcomes and allocation of time among teenagers. Estimates using the Census show that NPND laws have a positive and significant effect on both years of completed schooling and the probability of high school completion among boys and blacks, but not girls. …

Financial Development, International Capital Flows, And Aggregate Output, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a tractable two-country overlapping-generations model and show that cross-country differences in financial development can explain three recent empirical patterns of international capital flows: Financial capital flows from relatively poor to relatively rich countries, while foreign direct investment flows in the opposite direction; net capital flows go from poor to rich countries; despite its negative net international investment positions, the United States receives a positive net investment income. International capital mobility affects output in each country directly through the size of domestic investment and indirectly through the aggregate saving rate. Under certain conditions, the indirect effect may dominate the …

Nonparametric Dynamic Panel Data Models: Kernel Estimation And Specification Testing, Liangjun Su, Xun Lu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Motivated by the first differencing method for linear panel data models, we propose a class of iterative local polynomial estimators for nonparametric dynamic panel data models with or without exogeous regressors. The estimators utilize the additive structure of the first-differenced model, the fact that the two additive components have the same functional form, and the unknown function of interest is implicitly defined as a solution of a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. We establish the uniform consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators. We also propose a consistent test for the correct specification of linearity in typical dynamic …

Demography, Development And The Origin Of Democracy: A Model With Case Studies Of Arachic Athens And Maritime England, Brishti Guha

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

Does Competition Within The Military Reduce Expropriation?, Madhav S. Aney, Giovanni Ko

Research Collection School Of Economics

How can agents in the military, which control the means of coercion, commit not to expropriate from producers? In this paper we propose competition within the military as one of the mechanisms that can deter predation and consequently create commitment. In our model, even if agents within the military could expropriate all output costlessly, it is attractive to protect producers from predating military units. This is because there is a marginal defensive advantage and consequently defense is an e ective way to potentially eliminate other military units, reducing competition and leading to higher future payo s. The model predicts that …

Qml Estimation Of Dynamic Panel Data Models With Spatial Errors, Liangjun Su, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation of dynamic panel models with spatial errors when the cross-sectional dimension n is large and the time dimension T is fixed. We consider both the random effects and fixed effects models and derive the limiting distributions of the QML estimators under different assumptions on the initial observations. We propose a residual-based bootstrap method for estimating the standard errors of the QML estimators. Monte Carlo simulation shows that both the QML estimators and the bootstrap standard errors perform well in finite samples under a correct assumption on initial observations, but may perform poorly when …

The Response Of Commercial Banks To Credit Stimuli, Denise Williams Streeter

Theses and Dissertations in Business Administration

This dissertation calls upon the theory of financial intermediation (Diamond and Dybvig, 1983) and the credit channel theory of monetary policy effectiveness (Bernanke and Gertler, 1995) to show how commercial banks responded to the trillions of dollars of innovations to stimulate the credit markets during the 2008 global financial crisis. Specifically, loan-level data is used to conduct univariate, regression, and event-study analyses to address the research question of, "Did United States- and European Union-based commercial banks respond to credit stimuli with increased commercial lending during the stimulus period of October 1, 2007 through September 30, 2011 when compared to the …

Creating Knowledge, Volume 6, 2013

Creating Knowledge

It is my great pleasure to introduce the sixth volume of the College of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences’ “Creating Knowledge,” our undergraduate student scholarship and research journal. First published in 2008, the journal is the outcome of an initiative to enhance and enrich the academic quality of the student experience within the college. Through this publication, the college seeks to encourage students to become actively engaged in creating scholarship and research and gives them a venue for the publication of their essays.

This sixth volume is, however, unlike the previous ones in one major respect: the papers in this …